Extremely Rare for the Patriots to move out of the 1st round

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Many fans here think the Pats will move out of the first round to pick more in the second/third ect:

I would think by Belichicks record of 1-8 in moving out of the first round and the Patriots history of moving out of the first round are Extremely Rare at best

In Pats history only 4 drafts did not include the Pats in the first round
1972-1974-2000 and last year 2009

It would have only been 3 drafts in Pats history if you don't count 2000 which we gave to the Jets for a guy we call BB

Belichick had only done it once as Pats HC in 2009, so the past says its very unlikely the Pats do it 2 years in a row when they only have done it 4 times in 40 years

I think its FAR more likely that if the Pats do any wheeling and dealing in the draft involving the first round it will be to trade back into the first round for an additional player besides thier #22 by giving 2 picks away from the 2nd,or moving farther up to get a player they covet.

Don't expect to see the Pats come up empty on the first draft day on Thursday...history says it won't happen,especially 2 years in a row

 

[TriplecHamp]

I really hope you're right!

 

[SeauOUCH]

The Pats 1st round drafting record is pretty stellar under BB, the "worst" 1st rounder the Pats have picked under BB have been Lomo & Watson & they are both decent but failed to live up to 1st round expectations.

The 2nd round is much more of a crapshoot with lots of outright busts.

I much rather have the Pats trade up or down slightly & remain in round 1 then trade all the way back to the 2nd for more late round picks.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The factor that makes it unlikely they trade up and highly likely they trade down or out is the depth of this draft. There is a distinct drop off after the first 5-6 picks, and then a lesser dropoff after the next 10-12 and then very little difference between 20-40+. There are first round grades well into the middle of the second round, and second round grades well into the third, etc.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The factor that makes it unlikely they trade up and highly likely they trade down or out is the depth of this draft. There is a distinct drop off after the first 5-6 picks, and then a lesser dropoff after the next 10-12 and then very little difference between 20-40+. There are first round grades well into the middle of the second round, and second round grades well into the third, etc.

Personally I would love to see the Pats send #44 and #47 to Atlanta for thier #19 pick and have #19 and #22 in the first

That is a dream trade for me,we could get 2 studs that way,I still think there is more good players worthy of being higher up after 6 than you think

Just when Belichick makes a statement like there is first round talent in the third round, you can then reverse what he says to the media and expect a move up for 2 first rounders

 

[VJCPatriot]

The Pats had at least a 50% hit rate in the second round last year - Butler + Vollmer = Good. Brace and Chung = To be Determined.

Usually the Pats 2nd round rate has been slightly worse than 50%, but this year's draft is so deep with good prospects, I'd think they would at least make 50% or higher again.

The Pats usually DONT trade out of the 1st, but this year is probably as good as any to do it. Not to mention that if we could get a future 2011 1st plus a 3rd round pick this year, that would set the Pats up for a MONSTER 2011 with 3 1st round picks.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Personally I would love to see the Pats send #44 and #47 to Atlanta for thier #19 pick and have #19 and #22 in the first

That is a dream trade for me,we could get 2 studs that way,I still think there is more good players worthy of being higher up after 6 than you think

Just when Belichick makes a statement like there is first round talent in the third round, you can then reverse what he says to the media and expect a move up for 2 first rounders

It's not what I think per se, it's what all the experts are thinking. Everyone wants to trade down in this draft because of the depth and the way the players graded out. Bill can still certainly get a first round talent at #22, but he can get one at #26 or #30 or potentially the same player he takes there at #44 plus a couple of extra day 2 picks and potentially walk away from this draft having added a substantial number of first, second and early third round graded players on day 2.

Bill is always all about value.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

It's not what I think per se, it's what all the experts are thinking. Everyone wants to trade down in this draft because of the depth and the way the players graded out. Bill can still certainly get a first round talent at #22, but he can get one at #26 or #30 or potentially the same player he takes there at #44 plus a couple of extra day 2 picks and potentially walk away from this draft having added a substantial number of first, second and early third round graded players on day 2.

Bill is always all about value.

I think any moves from NE will not be made until the draft gets into the teens...IF BB sees two guys still on the board that he thinks is worth a flyer he could make the move to move back up,No one,even the experts know who BB is really coveting

Say for example that BB LOVES Odrick,Gresham AND Pierre Paul and they are still around at 18,then I could see BB moving up or staying Pat to get one of them and maybe moving his second rounders up in the first round to get another knowing they would be gone by #44.....its really all up to who he wants,who he thinKs is a good fit and who is still on the board at any given time.....its so hard to predict

If the top guys he likes are all gone by 22 and he does not move up or down,then it becomes interesting.

 

[Metaphors]

There really isn't this magical boundary between picks 32 and 33 except for contract length (32 signed for max of 5 years, 33 signed for max of 4). This year does add the "overnight" dimension to pick #33 but I don't believe that is a significant reason for or against trading down.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I fully expect BB to move down to the #24-#27 range. If only because there will probably be several options available at #22.

If however a QB is on the board at #22, that can generate a situation where BB might drop down into the early 2nd round.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Back to the OP, its not rare at all for them to move down or out of the first round. The difference is that many times we have an extra first round pick(Branch, Tuna, Bledsoe, or trading a 2nd for a future first)to do this! Many times in the past we had a single obvious NEED and our first pick was used for just that....but a few times (07 anyways)we had no holes and chose a player(Meriweather)that came along slowly because he didnt get the playing time or coaching. This team has so many holes and percieved value may not be BBs value. This along with our rep for giving away "trade value chart value" in trades will make for a busy few days.

 

[Feep50]

I fully expect BB to move down to the #24-#27 range. If only because there will probably be several options available at #22.

If however a QB is on the board at #22, that can generate a situation where BB might drop down into the early 2nd round.

In my "perfect storm" draft scenario some teams wants Tebow so bad they will give up a second and a third THIS year to move into our #22. Or a lower 1st and a third round pick. Tebow, and the manufactured interest we supposedly have in him might net us a bonanza! Leastways, I am hopeful it might happen.

 

[rsd]

In my "perfect storm" draft scenario some teams wants Tebow so bad they will give up a second and a third THIS year to move into our #22. Or a lower 1st and a third round pick. Tebow, and the manufactured interest we supposedly have in him might net us a bonanza! Leastways, I am hopeful it might happen.

We got a 2nd and 2 3rds last year from Green Bay for our 1st didn't we (which had already been traded down). We should get more than a 2nd and 3rd for a 1st if I'm reading your post correctly.

 

[patsfanboy]

This year draft is full of talent and a lot of great underclassmen will be in the draft because either of the rookie salary cap or the strike. So what is the point of stocking lots of pick for a poor draft?

 

[Feep50]

We got a 2nd and 2 3rds last year from Green Bay for our 1st didn't we (which had already been traded down). We should get more than a 2nd and 3rd for a 1st if I'm reading your post correctly.

I was stating minimum requirements. We all know BB will taking lots of calls on the availability of #22..................

 

[MaineMan]

I really don't think "history", in this instance, is a reliable guide, especially when taken by itself. This leads a lot of folks to predict that BB will take Gresham at #22 just because "he's done it before."

It's quite a backhanded slap to BB. It's like saying he never changes, never evolves, isn't smart enough to take into account the particulars of this specific draft and the specific situation of the roster heading into it.

 

[Keyser Söze]

All depends if BB's guy still there at 22. By now, he has identified who will most likely be there. If he feels like he can get the same talent in the 2nd then he'll trade down.

Going to be interesting to see if he doesnt stay at 22. It will obviously be a player he feels is worth of a 1st.

 

[zgotts]

The factor that makes it unlikely they trade up and highly likely they trade down or out is the depth of this draft. There is a distinct drop off after the first 5-6 picks, and then a lesser dropoff after the next 10-12 and then very little difference between 20-40+. There are first round grades well into the middle of the second round, and second round grades well into the third, etc.

There isn't that much of a difference between 20 and 40 OVERALL, but you have to look where the Pats are looking.

OLB is a CLEAR top need, and that top trio of Graham/Kindle/Hughes will almost definitely NOT be there after pick #32.

I also think a skill player, whether RB or WR is another MAJOR need in order to give Brady some more weapons.
WR, Bryant is an obvious upgrade (atleast talent wise) from the rest at his position, though I don't even think the Pats are targeting a WR until late round 2 or more likely later than that or are really interested in him.
RB- Mathews, OBVIOUS upgrade over any of the 2nd rounders.
Other areas:
DE- some think Odrick (if the Pats like him) is an obvious upgrade over the 2nd rounders, but i'm not so sure.
OG- Pouncey is an obvious upgrade over the 2nd round options at his position.

The point is, why sit around in the second and hope someone you like falls to you (whether or not it's one of the guys listed above) when you can guarantee yourself two immediate impact players at positions of need? Sure, some players in the 2nd round will prove to be impact players, but I think guys like Mathews, Kindle, Graham, Hughes, Pouncey, are better bets than anyone in round 2. I would much rather see the Patriots take 2 first rounders and get the guys they want than just hope for things to fall the right way.

What I could see is a trade UP of 2 second rounders to 19 or 23, and a trade DOWN from 22 to 25, 26, 27, to pick up a 3rd or 4th to make up for the lost pick.

19- Ryan Mathews
25- Sergio Kindle/Graham/Hughes
53- Dennis Pitta
3rd round (via trade down)- Andre Roberts/Mardy Gilyard/Eric Decker
118- Arthur Jones/Al Woods/Austen Lane

That would be beautiful.

 

[Since1971]

There isn't that much of a difference between 20 and 40 OVERALL, but you have to look where the Pats are looking.

OLB is a CLEAR top need, and that top trio of Graham/Kindle/Hughes will almost definitely NOT be there after pick #32.

I also think a skill player, whether RB or WR is another MAJOR need in order to give Brady some more weapons.
WR, Bryant is an obvious upgrade (atleast talent wise) from the rest at his position, though I don't even think the Pats are targeting a WR until late round 2 or more likely later than that or are really interested in him.
RB- Mathews, OBVIOUS upgrade over any of the 2nd rounders.
Other areas:
DE- some think Odrick (if the Pats like him) is an obvious upgrade over the 2nd rounders, but i'm not so sure.
OG- Pouncey is an obvious upgrade over the 2nd round options at his position.

The point is, why sit around in the second and hope someone you like falls to you (whether or not it's one of the guys listed above) when you can guarantee yourself two immediate impact players at positions of need? Sure, some players in the 2nd round will prove to be impact players, but I think guys like Mathews, Kindle, Graham, Hughes, Pouncey, are better bets than anyone in round 2. I would much rather see the Patriots take 2 first rounders and get the guys they want than just hope for things to fall the right way.

What I could see is a trade UP of 2 second rounders to 19 or 23, and a trade DOWN from 22 to 25, 26, 27, to pick up a 3rd or 4th to make up for the lost pick.

19- Ryan Mathews
25- Sergio Kindle/Graham/Hughes
53- Dennis Pitta
3rd round (via trade down)- Andre Roberts/Mardy Gilyard/Eric Decker
118- Arthur Jones/Al Woods/Austen Lane

That would be beautiful.

Agreed. I like the idea of targeting and getting an impact defender and impact offensive player. Good receiver choices in third, love Roberts. I just don't agree with Pitta or any T/E that high. Everyone has us taking a t/e in 2rd, we just don't utilize the t/e position to justify using a 2nd round pick. I'd rather take an offensive lineman and take t/e later in draft.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Agreed. I like the idea of targeting and getting an impact defender and impact offensive player. Good receiver choices in third, love Roberts. I just don't agree with Pitta or any T/E that high. Everyone has us taking a t/e in 2rd, we just don't utilize the t/e position to justify using a 2nd round pick. I'd rather take an offensive lineman and take t/e later in draft.

McShay has Gresham as our #1 pick in his final draft mock.....for the Pats to select a TE who has not played since 2008 as our #1 pick would be a disaster from the start