Eating Pot Roast- Exposing An Overrated and Flawed Run D

[supafly]

I thought the AFCCG idea was to stop our running game since blount and ridley were our supposed strength then.

I suppose it could be looked at both ways, but our pass to run ratio was extremely one-sided with 38 pass attempts and only 16 rush attempts.

In other words, it was 70.3 percent passing and only 29.7 percent running, and they were actually MORE successful than DEN in their rushing, having had a 4.0 YPC rate vs. DEN's 3.8.

In my opinion, they dared us to throw the ball, due to our pathetic lack of options in the receiving game.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=340119007

 

[supafly]

The Denver defense stifled the Patriots run in the AFC championship game.

First of all, welcome to the forum.

Second of all, I disagree that they "stifled" the Pats running game, since NE actually had a 4.0 yards per carry clip (they actually ran the ball better than Denver in the yards per carry stat).

The problem was that NE only chose to run a grand total of 16 times throughout the entire game, which was only 29.7 percent of their entire offensive plays.

As far as tomorrow goes, with Stevan Ridley being out of the game, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if you were correct that NE will have some trouble running the ball. I'm expecting mediocre results at best in that department, with more success coming through the air. Just my personal opinion.

 

[ausbacker]

First of all, welcome to the forum.

Second of all, I disagree that they "stifled" the Pats running game, since NE actually had a 4.0 yards per carry clip (they actually ran the ball better than Denver in the yards per carry stat).

The problem was that NE only chose to run a grand total of 16 times throughout the entire game, which was only 29.7 percent of their entire offensive plays.

As far as tomorrow goes, with Stevan Ridley being out of the game, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if you were correct that NE will have some trouble running the ball. I'm expecting mediocre results at best in that department, with more success coming through the air. Just my personal opinion.

I'm going to make a bold prediction that the Patriots will put over 120 yards on the ground on the Broncos. I'm at ease with a tandem of Gray and Vereen. Hopefully McDaniels realizes that James Develin is a weapon and can free up space as a lead blocker.

 

[PP2]

As far as tomorrow goes, with Stevan Ridley being out of the game, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if you were correct that NE will have some trouble running the ball. I'm expecting mediocre results at best in that department, with more success coming through the air. Just my personal opinion.

See: Gray, Jonas.

 

[Oswlek]

The problem was that NE only chose to run a grand total of 16 times throughout the entire game, which was only 29.7 percent of their entire offensive plays.

I broke this down for someone else who was complaining about NE's run/pass ratio in that game.

Sounds reasonable, the problem is that the raw data doesn't remotely tell the story.

Drive one: Opens with a 5 yard pass setting up a reasonable 2nd and 5. Blount rushed for no gain forcing NE to pass on 3rd and five.

Drive two: Opens with a 6 yard pass, then a 1 yard rush on 2nd and 4. The team passed on 3rd and 3, incomplete.

Drive three: 34 yard pass, incomplete, 5 yard rush, 18 yard pass, Run for no gain, incomplete, penalty forcing a pass on 3rd and 20.

Drive four: 27 yard pass, 3 yard run, 13 yard pass, 2 yard run, 15 yard pass, run for no gain, two yard pass, sack.

The next time NE touched the ball with a reasonable chance, they trailed 20-3.

7 rushes for a total of 11 yards and only one successful play during the time that the game was close. Sure, they could have rushed a few more times on first down, but five first down passes netted four completions for an average of 14.4 yards. Four first down rushes, by comparison, yielded five total yards and two stuffs.

There is no reason whatsoever to believe that more running would have led to more success against Denver.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We really should be worried about our own flawed run D.

OK. Lets put 7 in box today and stop the run and let the Thomas boys, WW and Sanders face 1:1 coverage vs Manning.

See: Gray, Jonas.

As long as he hangs on to the ball, picks up the blitz, and offers enough credibility to slow down the pass rush just a hair by hitting holes hard and making tough 1st downs, he is doing his job.

 

[RobertWeathers]

OK. Lets put 7 in box today and stop the run and let the Thomas boys, WW and Sanders face 1:1 coverage vs Manning. Stopping the run out of dime 50% of the time is kinda hard.



As long as he hangs on to the ball, picks up the blitz, and offers enough credibility to slow down the pass rush just a hair by hitting holes hard and making tough 1st downs, he is doing his job.

 

[luuked]

I broke this down for someone else who was complaining about NE's run/pass ratio in that game.

Sounds reasonable, the problem is that the raw data doesn't remotely tell the story.

Drive one: Opens with a 5 yard pass setting up a reasonable 2nd and 5. Blount rushed for no gain forcing NE to pass on 3rd and five.

Drive two: Opens with a 6 yard pass, then a 1 yard rush on 2nd and 4. The team passed on 3rd and 3, incomplete.

Drive three: 34 yard pass, incomplete, 5 yard rush, 18 yard pass, Run for no gain, incomplete, penalty forcing a pass on 3rd and 20.

Drive four: 27 yard pass, 3 yard run, 13 yard pass, 2 yard run, 15 yard pass, run for no gain, two yard pass, sack.

The next time NE touched the ball with a reasonable chance, they trailed 20-3.

7 rushes for a total of 11 yards and only one successful play during the time that the game was close. Sure, they could have rushed a few more times on first down, but five first down passes netted four completions for an average of 14.4 yards. Four first down rushes, by comparison, yielded five total yards and two stuffs.

There is no reason whatsoever to believe that more running would have led to more success against Denver.

That's what happens against a quality opponent if you are a one dimensional team. Since we had no offensive weapons healthy at that point, Denver just needed to stop the run. And they did it pretty well.

 

[goheels22002]

That's what happens against a quality opponent if you are a one dimensional team. Since we had no offensive weapons healthy at that point, Denver just needed to stop the run. And they did it pretty well.

I agree. In the AFCCG, the Broncos manhandled the offensive line, disrupting a weak passing attack, and clamping down on the run game that became irrelevant when the Broncos got out to a two-score lead. The Patriots enter this one with their starting OL, a much better and diverse receiving corps, and a superior defensive secondary. Welker's cross-body block on Talib was a huge play in that game.

It's a fair fight tonight. Home field in raw weather will make a difference, but the game will come down to whether the Pats hold their own in the trenches, and play to their potential in the secondary.

 

[sevengables_2207]

Much thanks to jays52 for the excellent analysis off of the game film.

I will be paying close attention to the trenches this afternoon to see if the Pats catch and take advantage of the Broncos tendency to over-pursue.

 

[patfanken]

Great job Jay and everyone else in this thread....including the donkey fan. This is a great discussion.

IMHO the Pats don't NEED to run the ball, they HAVE to run the ball with much more balance than they did in the AFCCG last year. The Pats have evolved into a play action pass team. At
least to the point, some of their most effective plays this season have come off the PAP. So they HAVE to run the ball at least 40% of the time for that look to have any effectiveness. If I'm Del Rio, I'm telling my guys to ignore the the run if there is any doubt and make the Pats prove they can be effective moving the sticks with the run game.

I LOVE the fact Jay's OP concentrates on the Run side of the offense. He makes a great case for running counters. My feeling on this game is that the strength of the Pats offense is still the passing game, and this year we aren't going into the game with a crippled receiving corp. Remember both Thomkins DA and Dobson were severely limited that day, and of course Gronk and Wright didn't exist.

But while we HAVE to run, I don't think we need to "gash" them to win. My problem with counter plays is time. If I had my druthers, I'd want to employ more of the quick hit running game. By alignment the Broncos create a lot of soft spots. I'd rather go right at those and avoid the chance of big losses caused by slow forming plays.

Even though its less exciting to watch, I think it would be a lot more effective for the entire offense if the Pats ran off run plays of 3, 4, and 5 yds consistently than have runs of 8, 9, and -4. That being said, running counters that don't take time to develop like the countering with Edelman or Wright off of a dive look is an excellent idea. Also running quick counters with 2 RB's in the back field. Picture this:

In the shot gun, have both Vareen and Gray beside Brady and run some counters off that formation. And why not run Devlin off of counter action from 2 back run formations. These are just a couple of ways to run counter action yet still attack the LOS quickly.

BTW- its fair to worry about our run defense.....for THIS game, but I don't worry about it long term. Why? Becaues last season, with a lot less talent BB got the run defense in control by the end of the season. In control enough that the Pats were tied for the best run defense in the playoffs. (BTW, the team they were tied with was the Donkeys)

Again a great thread. In just 7 hours we'll get so see how it actually looks

 

[PP2]

Much thanks to jays52 for the excellent analysis off of the game film.

I will be paying close attention to the trenches this afternoon to see if the Pats catch and take advantage of the Broncos tendency to over-pursue.

It isn't really the Broncos tendency to overpursue but Del Rio's (as that is his defensive philosophy) and we've traditionally countered that by going five wide.

I think that Jay, however, makes an excellent argument as to why it may be otherwise today.

 

[sevengables_2207]

It isn't really the Broncos tendency to overpursue but Del Rio's (as that is his defensive philosophy) and we've traditionally countered that by going five wide.

I think that Jay, however, makes an excellent argument as to why it may be otherwise today.

True, that. Apologies for not being specific enough in regards to the origin of the tendency.

Be that as it may...

Go Pats!

 

[AzPatsFan]

Forgive me if I am incorrect, but this was primarily the Broncos gameplan in the AFCCG, no? It certainly seemed to work then, although I think we left some plays on the field.

It's a shame that in our postseason losses, the inability to run effectively always comes back to bite this team in the ass.

That is a basic reason for changes in the Offensive line. IMHO, it is why he drafted Big Cam Fleming. I anticipate another Big guy drafted for the other guard spot too.

 

[JMC00]

The Stork ate himself some Pot Roast yesterday.

 

[mayoclinic]

The Stork ate himself some Pot Roast yesterday.

I said in post 59 above, prior to the game:

I am very intrigued to see how our rookie center, Bryan Stork, handles Knighton. Stork has the size and physicality to match up well against big DTs, something that Ryan Wendell struggled with. I like Wendell and Connolly much better as pulling guards.

Stork brings size, physicality, toughness, attitude and intelligence to the pivot position. The ability to match up against bigger and more physical NTs would be a huge asset that the offense has lacked for years.

 

[jays52]

Well guys I crushed that prediction huh?

 

[supafly]

I broke this down for someone else who was complaining about NE's run/pass ratio in that game.

Sounds reasonable, the problem is that the raw data doesn't remotely tell the story.

Drive one: Opens with a 5 yard pass setting up a reasonable 2nd and 5. Blount rushed for no gain forcing NE to pass on 3rd and five.

Drive two: Opens with a 6 yard pass, then a 1 yard rush on 2nd and 4. The team passed on 3rd and 3, incomplete.

Drive three: 34 yard pass, incomplete, 5 yard rush, 18 yard pass, Run for no gain, incomplete, penalty forcing a pass on 3rd and 20.

Drive four: 27 yard pass, 3 yard run, 13 yard pass, 2 yard run, 15 yard pass, run for no gain, two yard pass, sack.

The next time NE touched the ball with a reasonable chance, they trailed 20-3.

7 rushes for a total of 11 yards and only one successful play during the time that the game was close. Sure, they could have rushed a few more times on first down, but five first down passes netted four completions for an average of 14.4 yards. Four first down rushes, by comparison, yielded five total yards and two stuffs.

There is no reason whatsoever to believe that more running would have led to more success against Denver.

I'm not necessarily "complaining" about the pass/run ratio as much as I am pointing out that NE still ran at a higher clip than DEN in the AFCCG, which is in response to the DEN fan who claims that they "stifled" our rushing attack back in January. That is what I don't really agree with, due to some of the reasoning that you provided.

 

[supafly]

As far as tomorrow goes, with Stevan Ridley being out of the game, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if you were correct that NE will have some trouble running the ball. I'm expecting mediocre results at best in that department, with more success coming through the air. Just my personal opinion.

I think that DEN can be attacked through the air, and this time around we actually had the weapons to do so--as opposed to the miserable choices that were available back in January.

As far as seeing better balance on the ground, one may assume that would be the gameplan should these teams meet up a second time around. I think that would help to limit some of Manning's possessions a bit better.

 

[ATippett56]

Well guys I crushed that prediction huh?

Huh?

"Eating Pot Roast- Exposing An Overrated and Flawed Run D"

The New England Patriots offense could not run the football worth a damn against the Denver Broncos.

Should have gone with "Exposing an Overrated Pass Rush"