Early impressions

[Synovia]

W
If the Pats run the 4-3 exclusively this year, I don't expect the play-offs or the SB. The Defense just isn't built for it. Not to mention that Mayo was over-pursuing on most of the plays last night..

IIRC, the Pats played the 4-3 for a significantly large part of the game, the last 2 years against the Bengals.


I don't think they'll play exclusively 4-3, but I think they'll play at least 20% of the snaps this year out of it. They can mount a better pass rush with it, and if they're up by more than a TD, thats pretty much all that matters.

 

[Deus Irae]

OK, help me out here. Maroney's and Morris's numbers from the past two years that both players were on the team.

MORRIS
ATT YDS YPC
2006 156 727
2007 85 384
Total 241 1111 4.61

MARONEY ATT YDS YPC
2006 28 93
2007 185 835
Total 213 928 4.36


I haven't looked at situational stats yet and should probably get back to work, but I feel fairly confident that between the backs there is a an equal distribution of carries where there is more than 1 or 2 yds required for first down or TD, if anything, it would go in Maroney's favor.

Morris also has 10 TD's to Maroney's 6.

I'm not saying stats tell the whole story, just debunking the claims that Maroney gets so many more yards than Morris

Just as a follow up....

2007, through the San Francisco game, Morris' numbers:

10 for 53
8 for 0
9 for 27
16 for 63

That's 43 carries for 143 yards, which is a 3.33 ypc average. What was Maroney for the season, which ended in San Francisco? 3.3 ypc, with the injury.

The running game didn't start to right itself until it played an absolutely brutal Broncos run defense two weeks later, because the very next week, Morris amassed a 2.6 ypc average against San Diego.

 

[APatrioticVirginian]

Last year, Maroney had what, 25 carries? And was hurt.

I agree hes injury prone.

 

[D-cleater]

When did Randy Cross say this? I've re-watched the 1st quarter and part of the 2nd, and haven't heard anything of the sort.

If the Pats run the 4-3 exclusively this year, I don't expect the play-offs or the SB. The Defense just isn't built for it. Not to mention that Mayo was over-pursuing on most of the plays last night..

How is the defense, as it is today, not built for the 4-3? I'm not trying to start another argument, I just want to hear why.

We have pash rushers in Thomas and Burgess, backups in Woods, TBC, Crable. Thomas and Woods can both drop into coverage. Seymour and Wilfork should get more pressure with fewer double teams. The starting linemen all appear to be above average or better against the run.

The secondary doesn't change much. What am I missing?

 

[D-cleater]

Both you and Sarge are 100% WRONG. Maroney hit the holes that were there. You can't blame him for not hitting holes that were open before he even got the ball..Which was the case on 2 plays.. And you can't blame Maroney for the holes disappearing because the O-linemen get pushed into them.. As happened on 2 of the plays..

Does Maroney not have the speed to get outside? Or is he coached not to? That always confuses me when I watch Maroney. There's got to be a good reason. I don't think Morris or Faulk necessarily have it in them, but I think Maroney does. Maybe they are all coached not to do that, but I can't for the life of me imagine why.

 

[DaBruinz]

Okay then:
-- The D-line is playing a one-gap game and immediately ran a twist with Sey crashing in from DE to draw a Double-Team and Pryor coming around behind him. McNabb tried to go deep along the sideline against Wilhite, but offensive pass interference and illegal formation calls killed the play.

-- Guyton shed a block to make the first tackle, but it wasn't like a normal NE DL effort since TBC was doing his Dwight Freeney imitation and whoever the DT on that side he was doubled out of the area code leaving Guyton to stack, shed, and stick inside a wide lane - but he got it done. Mayo got a piece before the runner was down too.

Burgess/Wilfork/Pryor/TBC on the line. Thomas/Mayo/Guyton at LB. Pryor got doubled up by the C and LG. TBC gets picked up by Jason Avant preventing the backside pursuit. Guyton gets tied up with LT Jason Peters. Mayo got sucked in and picked up by the Iggles Center, who had broken away from Pryor.

-- The Iggles tried to use their TE to clear out the LBs for the FB coming underneath, but no go as the FB took the ball 1/2 yd beyond the LOS and picked up about 5 yds before Guyton and Mayo got him.

On the pre-snap read, both Thomas and Meriweather started towards the LOS. After the snap, Meriweather and Mayo drop back to cover the TE who is running a Seam route.

-- Iggles 3-wide, Pats 4-3 nickel, looks like Butler came in for Wilhite who slid inside to the "star" over the slot man. Adalius & Mayo behind the line. Adalius ran with the TE and Mayo faked a blitz while spying on McNabb, he drew an OL to block him so one less for the DL. TBC drew a RB/LT double-team off the edge. The Iggles color man claims McNabb was rushed a little, TBC may have forced him to step up before he rifled the ball into the turf by the receiver's feet.

4-2-5 nickel for the Pats. Burgess/Wilfork/Seymour/TBC on the line. Thomas/Mayo for the LBs. 5 Man rush with Mayo coming slow. TBC and Burgess both were putting pressure.

-- Punt, 38 yd kick oob.
-- 1st and 10: Pats 2-wide (Moss, Galloway), 2 TE (Baker, Thomas). Iggles run blitzed against the NE left side, Light missed a block on the DE slanting inside through the B-gap and failed to slow him for Kaczur pulling across, so Kac had to stretch to get a big enough piece of the DE to push him wide on his bee-line towards Maroney. Maroney was almost met three yds deep in the backfield, Kac getting a piece of the DE and Maroney's own sidestep kept it from being a loss of yardage. After that Maroney had nowhere to go and just got back to the LOS. Reports of his dancing on this play are pure bologna - the cheap, extra gristly kind.

Baker was the TE on the Right Side. Thomas on the Left. Dead on otherwise.

-- 2nd and 10: 3-wide w/Edelman in, 1 TE. Iggles 4-2 nickel. Flanker screen to Edelman behind Galloway for 6 yds. Galloway was okay, but it wasn't a blocking clinic.

-- 3rd and 4: Five wide NE, Iggles in Dime. Decent protection, Brady released the ball on the 3 second count. He was a step behind Galloway with his timing on the pass. He also had Faulk from the slot for the first down underneath on a nice spin move to get open.

The Pats actually had a 3WR/1TE/1RB formation. Faulk was in for Maroney. Faulk split out into the slot left. Sheldon Brown with the break up.

-- Punt: Nice punt just outside the numbers to the Iggles right side. I don't know who the Gunner was but he plowed through two vise men and appeared to have upset the PR as he reached and muffed the punt. The Gunner got a piece of the ball knocking it away from the PR, but the one vise man was quick to recover the ball.

I couldn't tell who the gunner was either.. But he almost grabbed the ball after it bounced off Maclin.

-- 1st and 10: Iggles 2-wide, 2 RB offset left. Pats 6-1 heavy, Meriweather in the box outside the SLB/TE. FB dive behind Center. Meriweather looked to be the first to get to the FB, and it's hard to see, but it looks like the Iggles tried to combo Pryor with the C/LG and he rode with the C's push and slid underneath the LG to join Meriweather in holding this to a 3 yd gain, Vince came over from the other DT slot and they all wrestled the FB down together.

Pats had LK Smith/Wilfork/Pryor/Seymour on the line with Thomas/Mayo/Woods as the LBs. Pryor got doubled by the C/LG again (very common theme through out the night). Wilfork blows past the RG, but takes himself out of the play.. Thomas was Sealed off by the TE. Smith disappeared against Justice.

-- 2nd and 7: 2-wide, 2 TE right shotgun. Pats 4-3 pass rush package. Good protection, but good coverage too. Guyton skyed to get a piece of the ball and tip it short of the WR.

Saw it as a 3WR/1TE/1RB with Max protect called and Jackson in motion. Pats had Burgess/ Wilfork/Pryor/TBC on the line with Thomas/Mayo/Guyton at LB. Pryor and Wilfork got doubled up. TBC got blocked by the LT and then chipped by RB. Burgess got blocked by the RT and then chipped by the TE.

-- 3rd and 7: 4-wide. Pats 4-2 nickel. Big blitz - both Mayo and Adalius came with Sanders coming from Safety forcing McNabb to hurry and throw off his back foot incomplete.

Pats line: Burgess/Wilfork/Seymour/TBC LBs: Thomas/Mayo. Sanders on a delayed Safety Blitz.

-- Punt: Edelman fair catch with a man in his face, there was some good pressure up the middle by the PR team.

-- 1st and 10 NE 23: 2-wide, 2 TE. Iggles 4-3. Thomas motion to the NE right side, Brady play action to Maroney and hit Moss on a nice crossing pattern for 13 yds.
-- 1st and 10: 3-wide, TE Rt, shotgun. Iggles 4-2 nickel. Brady to Moss deep along the sideline - Samuel draws a PI for holding Moss' arm.

Pats were Trips RT.

Maroney was open on the left side and only had 2 defenders on his side of the field.. He'd have run a LONG time had Brady looked that way..

-- 1st and 10 Phi 18: 2-wide Lt, 2 TE Rt. Phi 4-3. Nice blocking - the OL blocked down pulling Mankins, Baker from 1x1 outside Kaczur blocked down to seal the DE. Thomas kicked out the SLB. Mankins creamed the MLB. Kaczur came off and picked up the WLB and took him all the way across outside the SLB. Maroney was unable to get up a head of steam - he looked like he was sailing through a mine field with all the changes of direction as he let his blockers clear the way, the only thing that kept him from busting loose into the secondary was the LDE had been spun completely around by Baker's block and was pointed in the right direction when Maroney slowed to allow Kaczur to finish opening the door, the LDE was just able to get a hold of him to save a big gain. It was a really pretty job of blocking and following your blockers. 4 yds.

I saw much the same.

-- 2nd and 6: 4-wide, trips Lt. 4-2 nickel. Flanker screen to Edelman behind Baker and Lewis for 5 yds. Good job blocking and running behind the blocks again.

Was that Lewis? Or was it Galloway out there?

-- 3rd and 1: I-form, Moss Rt., TE Rt. Phi 4-3. Quick snap, running behind Baker at RTE, Thomas kicked out the run blitzing SLB. Baker jacked the MLB back, and Maroney slashed over the line for a first down before Hobbs brought him down. 4 yds.

-- 1st and goal: I-form, Moss Lt, 2 TE Rt. Phi 4-3. Alex Smith motioned R-L and chipped the RDE before sealing the WLB. Thomas kicked out the S. Light lost his block on the RDE when Smith came off and Maroney was pulled down from behind as he followed his blockers off LT. 1 yd.
-- 2nd and goal. 3-wide, 2 Rt, TE Lt, shotgun. Phi 4-1 dime. Edelman motioned inside to bunch behind Lewis. Nice protection as Brady worked from R-L and hit Baker running an out at the goal line. Another half second and he could have hit Maroney at the 1 when he cleared the Umpire. TD.
-- Gost for the EP. 7-0 Pats.

Observations: Favorite whipping boy Maroney showed great patience and decent vision, setting up his blockers and giving them time to do their jobs for him. Favorite whipping boy Matt Light had a more mixed game to this point, twice missing on run blocks against a quick DE - he was solid in pass protection. Baker and Thomas working together as TEs looked very good, with Baker drawing more power/in-line assignments and Thomas the FB assignments, but both lined up in-line and offset off the line with no immediate pattern to who was doing what except when Thomas was at FB. Edelman looked natural (though I know the best is yet to come), Lewis looked like Gaffney, Galloway and Brady still need more time together.

I'll admit, I didn't notice Lewis.. I was focusing more on the line play. And being awed by Edelman.

 

[captain stone]

If they had given Julian Edelman #83 instead of #11, I doubt anyone would have known that Welker missed the game. It kind of makes me wonder if ANY slot WR in THAT offense, with THAT QB couldn't grab 100 balls a season.
Don't sell Welker & Edelman too short, pardon the pun, but I smell what you're cooking; the 2006 Reche Caldwell, though not a slot WR, still is the classic Chicken Salad example.

Stilll waiting for Joey Galloway to do something that makes me go WOW....or even go Nice.
For our sake, I hope we don't have to wait longer than next week.

I know people will talk about Baker's 2 TD passes, but what impressed me most was a running play where Thomas made a decent block screening the contain man, but Baker blew his man 5 yds off the ball. If there was a Jet fan watching that game, he's probably doing his best Bob Lobel impression and saying, "Why can't the Jets get guys like that".
Chris Baker might be the TE for whom Bill has been looking all these years. Too bad he'll be 30 in November.

My biggest disappointment was when the Pats failed twice on 3rd and one.
This is where not having a true Lead Blocker is going to hurt them.

Yes Martha, that was a 4-3. BB in his presser mentioned that they used it most of the time. They wanted to see some things in live action. To me it looked like they got decent pressure with it, but the run defense wasn't as strong.
I'm not sure if the weak run defense was due more to the 4-3, or more to the simple fact that their tackling was piss-poor.

Is it just me or does Derrick Burgess look small...ish.
He might not be Willie Mac big, or even Vrabel big; as long as he hurts QBs, then I'll settle for Rosie big.

Vince showed he can get up field from the 4-3 DT, except he whiffed on McNab on one rush.
I remember that play. Hey, it's hard to break down when all that weight is moving so quickly.

Brandon Merriweather is ready to take it to the next level. James Sanders is not.
Welcome to the club, PFK.

Will someone explain to me how Wilhite was picked in the 4th round while Weatley was picked in the 2nd. Clearly you couldn't tell by their relative performances.
Let's not fit Wilhite for a bust in Canton just yet. He was drafted no later than where he warrented. Wheatley, OTOH, was drafted at least one round too soon.

I saw a couple of comments here that Blasted Moroney. Well I didn't see anything that he did poorly. Nothing that made me go OOOOHHH either, but I guess he's going to be the board punching bag no matter what he does.
LaMa still needs to work on the Vision Thing.

I get the feeling that Alex Smith is losing in the TE battle.
To Baker, naturally; but Thomas needs more performances like last night. Bumblin' Bennie is 4th, as far as I'm concerned...at best.

Funny how a good play like the punt return for a TD, can skew stats. Because of it Philly had a huge time of possession edge in the first half.
Philly had a huge TOP advantage in the 1st half, also because our defense couldn't stop them until they entered the RZ.

I think we'll see Brady play less in game 2
Agreed.

Jay Feely is NOT a bad QB, which makes me wonder why the Eagles took on Vick. Don't they have their QB of the future in Kevin Kolb, and Feely as #3 is better than a lot of team's #2. Where does Vick fit in? I'd rather have Feely than Walter.
Kolb is hurt; McPuke & Feely were the Eagles' only healthy QBs last night.

McNab can't complain about not having any WRs anymore. It looks like the Eages have some good ones now.
Their depth at WR is better than our top-heavy depth at WR. Greg Lewis would be 8th there, maybe even 9th.

The Pats tackling wasn't good overall, though Merriweather made some very good form tackles. I think BB will make note of that.

What's esp. troubling to me about the poor tackling is that the Pats had a lot of practices in full pads, so rust shouldn't be used as an excuse.

 

[DaBruinz]

Does Maroney not have the speed to get outside? Or is he coached not to? That always confuses me when I watch Maroney. There's got to be a good reason. I don't think Morris or Faulk necessarily have it in them, but I think Maroney does. Maybe they are all coached not to do that, but I can't for the life of me imagine why.

Maroney has plenty of speed to go outside. It all depends on what he sees. Last night, there wasn't much running room outside. On the 1 play where I thought he could have possibly gone outside, it was shown that Thomas actually got blocked down and disappeared behind Light, so it wasn't an option and Maroney was forced back inside.

I am actually in the process of going through and noting which side the Pats run to, be it the strong side or not, and what the O-line does with its blocking. One of the things that I saw Philly do last night was block towards the strong side with 4 or 5 while opening a hole with the other 2 so that their RB could go through easily.. I didn't see the Pats doing that.

 

[DaBruinz]

We resume with 7:58 in the first Qtr - Gostkowski has just booted one 5 yds deep into the end zone and the Iggles took a touchback. Eric Alexander was the first coverage man into the picture, followed a step later by Brandon McGowan.

-- 1st and 10 Phi 20: Phi I-form, 3-wide, 2R. NE 6-1 Heavy, Brace in for Pryor, Meriweather is down in press coverage on the slot man, Bodden is in press, Wilhite is 7 yds off the line, Sanders is the deep man out of the picture. McNabb tries to take advantage of the depth Wilhite is playing, but he one hops it to his receiver after a 3-step drop.

Pats Line: LK Smith/Wilfork/Brace/Seymour
Pats LBs: Thomas/Mayo/Woods
5 Man rush including Woods. No double teams by the Iggles. Incomplete pass to Jackson. McNabb was hurried and only took 2 of the 3 steps. I went back and counted twice just to make sure..

-- 2nd and 10: Phi T-form, 2 wide, TE R, shotgun. NE 4-3 pass rush. Draw, the RB bounced it through the right side "c" gap and Burgess pulled him down after 6 yds.

Pats Line: Burges/Wilfork/Pryor/TBC
Pats LBs: Thomas/Mayo/Woods
Pryor gets Doubled by the C/LG
DB gets sealed off by the RT. FB lead through the Gap (looked like the B Gap, not C since Burgess was tied up with the RT, but I could be wrong). FB lead the way..

-- 3rd and 4: Phi T-form, 2-wide, TE L, shotgun. NE it's either a 4-2 nickel with Meriweather at SLB, or 4-3 pass rush with Adalius at MLB, Mayo at WLB, and Guyton at SLB - maybe someone with an HD TV/DVR set can get some numbers and clarify. Decent protection and good coverage, McNabb's "clock" struck twelve and he bailed out to the left running a good scramble drill with his WR for an 8 yd pick-up.

Pats were in their 4-3.
Pats Line: Burges/Green/Seymour/TBC
LBs: Thomas/Mayo/Woods

Seymour got doubled. McNabb got Flushed. Pass was to Jackson.

-- 1st and 10: Phi 3-wide, 2 L, TE R, shotgun. NE 4-3 heavy (Woods the WLB was off the LOS and shaded inside the slot). Slot WR in motion takes a reverse handoff, it looks like Adalius was at SLB and blew the play up forcing the runner to reverse field, unfortunately four DTs chasing a very shifty WR made for a modern Keystone Cops episode. Woods over-pursued, he should have held backside contain and trusted Mayo and the Safeties to back-up Adalius, Sey was the backside contain and he was outclassed by the shifty WR. Woods did get back to pin the runner against the sidelines and LeKevin Smith came across the field to push him out after 9 yds.

Pats Line: Smith/Wilfork/Brace/Seymour
Pats LBs: Thomas/Mayo/Woods
Thomas was the one to blow up the play.
Woods/Seymour contain on the backside, but Woods tries to pursue.

-- 2nd and 1: Phi I-form, 2-wide, TE L. NE 6-1 heavy. FB lead right side. Smith was doubled-teamed, Adalius was screened away by the double-team as he kept outside contain, Wilfork was comboed inside, Mayo came up and was picked up by the RG releasing off Smith, then kicked-out by the FB, that left James Sanders to make the tackle. 5 yds.

Pats: Same personnel as last play.

Run through the Rt side "B" gap. Mayo seemed out of position to me because he didn't engage the RG and clog the hole.

-- 1st and 10: Phi 4-wide, 3 L, shotgun. NE 6-1 heavy. Wilfork's rush flushed McNabb out to the right, but he was able to connect on the run for 7 yds.{/quote]

3WR/1TE/1RB - Strong Side Left. Pats bring a 5 man rush. Wilfork and Woods both flush McNabb. McNabb scurries away and makes the completion to Baskett.

-- 2nd and 3: Phi I-form, 2-wide, TE L. 6-1 heavy. FB lead left. Wilfork was double-teamed, Brace and Seymour both slanted down and were taken where they wanted to go. The TE came off the chip on Sey and blocked Mayo, the FB kicked out Woods, Sanders came up fast and closed the outside lane forcing the RB to into the inside lane and into Adalius' arms. 7 yds.

Woods sealed the Edge. Mayo and Sanders both close on the B Gap. Mayo over-pursues and the TE blocks him to the outside, forcing Sanders to go even wider.. Had Mayo taken one less step, he seals the inside and Sanders the outside.. One of them makes the stop.

-- 1st and 10: Phi 3-wide, TE L. NE 6-1 heavy, man-free coverage. Screen left. Nobody read or felt that screen, Woods and Mayo were taken out by the screen and Meriweather made the tackle after 19 yds.

Fake to the RB who then swings out wide left and catches the screen pass. Brace got penetarion, but didn't get his hands up. Woods got take out by a block to his knees...

-- 1st and 10: Phi 5-wide, 3 R, shotgun. NE 6-1 heavy, man. Fade to the left side, incomplete, Bodden on Kevin Curtis.

Pats line still: LK Smith/VW/RB/RS
Pats LBs: Thomas/Mayo/Woods

4 man rush by the Pats... LK Smith got doubled up. Pass overthrown.

-- 2nd and 10: Phi I-form, 2-wide, TE R. NE 6-1 heavy, man. Finally! The DL played gap control instead of trying to penetrate and this left Mayo clean to meet the FB in the hole, and Sey to upend the RB. No gain.

Wilfork gets doubled by the RG/RT. LK Smith actually caught the RB from the backside..

-- 3rd and 10: Phi 3-wide, 2 L, TE R, shotgun. NE 4-3 nickel, man. TBC forced McNabb up into the pocket then sacked him - good coverage, McNabb was still looking when he was pulled down at 3.5 mississippi. Loss of 4 yds.

Pats Line: Burgess/Green/Seymour/TBC
Pats LBs: Thomas/Mayo

TBC with the Sack. TE was clean on the crossing route, though he would have been well short of the 1st down...

 

[D-cleater]

Good stuff, thanks for the analysis.

 

[patfanken]

What's esp. troubling to me about the poor tackling is that the Pats had a lot of practices in full pads, so rust shouldn't be used as an excuse.

Yes, but they didn't do any live tackling drill, except a few open field tackling drills. None of the 11 or 11 or 9 or 9 drills had live tackling. So last night was really the first time they saw live offense players to tackle

 

[DaBruinz]

2:19 in the 1st Qtr:
-- Phi kicks off to Slater at the 3 yd line.
-- NE is using a 2-man wedge (Hochstein, A.Smith) with Edelman the other returner as the lead blocker.
-- They've got a left-side return on.
-- Baker is set up as a rally point 12-15 yds in front of the wedge.
-- Devree, Alexander, Baker, Hochstein, McGowan, Smith, Chung, Ciurciu, and Edelman all get gold stars for blocking. Tank Williams not so much.
-- 27 yd return to the NE 30.

Slater, had he cut right, was gone since there was no one between him and the goal line on that side of the field.. Instead, he cut left, and made it to the 30.. He's learning though..

-- 1st and 10: NE I-form, Moss R, 2 TE L. Phi 4-3, SS in the box. Maroney left side has no where to run as the Eagles string it out with 8 men in the box stacking up the blockers. Koppen and Neal missed cut blocks. Smith and Thomas had decent kickout blocks, Baker & Light doubled the DE and drove him off the line, Mankins stayed with his man but never moved him out. Kaczur had the monster block on the backside.

Thomas and Mankins were blocked into Maroney's running lanes from what I saw..

-- 2nd and 10: NE 4-wide, shotgun. Phi 4-2 nickel. Maroney left side, he made a couple jump steps in the backfield waiting for the OL to open the door, once they did he burst for 5 yds. Baker had the key block that sprang him.

Maroney was going to shoot the "A" gap, but the Philly LB sealed it shut before he got the ball..

-- 3rd and 5: NE 3-wide R, TE L, shotgun. Phi 4-2 nickel. Phi rushed 6. Tommy had enough protection to hit Baker for 9 yds after 2 seconds.
-- 1st and 10: T-form, 3-wide, 2 L. Phi 4-2 nickel. Interception as Brady threw off his back leg towards Moss. Eagles got a good push inside to keep him from stepping up.
12 seconds left in the quarter.

I re-watched this play several times and while Brady did throw off his back foot, Moss clearly misplayed it as well. Not sure if he lost sight of the ball or what, but he didn't even really go up for it.. It was an easy pick by Sheldon Brown.

 

[DaBruinz]

OK, help me out here. Maroney's and Morris's numbers from the past two years that both players were on the team.

MORRIS
ATT YDS YPC
2006 156 727
2007 85 384
Total 241 1111 4.61

MARONEY ATT YDS YPC
2006 28 93
2007 185 835
Total 213 928 4.36


I haven't looked at situational stats yet and should probably get back to work, but I feel fairly confident that between the backs there is a an equal distribution of carries where there is more than 1 or 2 yds required for first down or TD, if anything, it would go in Maroney's favor.

Morris also has 10 TD's to Maroney's 6.

I'm not saying stats tell the whole story, just debunking the claims that Maroney gets so many more yards than Morris

Morris' stats are skewed because of his play against weaker defenses than Maroney had faced. I did a posting on it last year and it showed that the two were basically identical..

 

[DaBruinz]

Good stuff, thanks for the analysis.

I am just adding to what Box saw.. its amazing how easy it is to get sucked into breaking things down..

 

[captain stone]

How is the defense, as it is today, not built for the 4-3? I'm not trying to start another argument, I just want to hear why.

We have pash rushers in Thomas and Burgess, backups in Woods, TBC, Crable. Thomas and Woods can both drop into coverage. Seymour and Wilfork should get more pressure with fewer double teams. The starting linemen all appear to be above average or better against the run.

The secondary doesn't change much. What am I missing?

I just don't know if we have front 7 personnel suited for a base 4-3.

Seymour is not a 4-3 DE;
Warren (if he's even healthy) is not a 4-3 DE;
LeKevin Smith (did he get hurt yesterday?) is not a 4-3 DE;
Wright is not a 4-3 DE;
Wilfork, Brace & Pryor are definitely not 4-3 DEs.
So if we go base 4-3, we now have 7 DTs, 5 of whom are virtual locks. Even Darryl Richard, Titus Adams & Steven Williams are better-suited as 4-3 DTs (or 3-4 DEs).

The only players close to being base 4-3 DEs would be Jarvis Green, Adalius & Burgess. Maybe TBC & Ninkovich too, but only maybe. Woods & Crable played OLB at Michigan, so I'll leave them there.

So now we are left with 4-3 LBs consisting of:
Woods - Mayo - Guyton
Crable - Lenon - Bruschi
Alexander - Ciurciu - Tank Williams
I don't like that grouping - at all.

I still feel that Bill is moving some pieces around to see what fits best. In the end, unless there is a major personnel shakeup - as in trade(s) or release(s) - it just looks to me that we are a 3-4 base, with a ton of flexibility. Nothing wrong with that; the more about which the other side has to worry, the better it is for us. Besides, if Bill were committed to converting to a 4-3, then why didn't he draft somebody like DE Lawrence Sidbury (aka Adalius Jr.) in the 4th round instead of OBurger?

 

[captain stone]

Yes, but they didn't do any live tackling drill, except a few open field tackling drills. None of the 11 or 11 or 9 or 9 drills had live tackling. So last night was really the first time they saw live offense players to tackle

Thanks; that eases my mind a bit.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

12 second remain in the 1st Qtr.

-- 1st and 10 Phi 12: Phi I-form., 2-wide, TE L. NE 6-1 heavy, CBs in press. Sey jumps and tags the LT, fingers point...and it's on Sey for encroachment, 5 yds.
-- 2nd and 5: Phi offset I R, 2-wide, TE R. NE 4-3 heavy overbalanced R, Meriweather in the box outside the TE, Bodden Press, Wilhite off 7 yds. Phi shifts to a straight I and NE brings WLB (Woods) down to the LOS outside the DE. FB lead left gets stacked up by the DL with Mayo plugging holes. Woods has outside contain and comes around the LT and wraps up the RB trying to bull into the line. 1 yd.

-- End of Qtr -- 2nd Qtr:

-- 2nd and 4: Phi I-form, 2-wide, TE L. NE 4-3 heavy overload L, Bodden in press, Wilhite off 6 yds, Meriweather stepping up to the box then bailing out to set what looks like Cover-2. Pass, McNabb, unable to step up into the pocket due to Wilfork's bull rush, throws off his back leg and over his receiver and the outstretched hands of a diving Wilhite running stride for stride, Meriweather was late coming over to help after faking down into the box. Incomplete. Pats did a good job of reading the keys and identifying what was coming.
-- 3rd and 4: Phi 3-wide, 2 L, TE R, shotgun. NE 4-2 nickel. Draw to the left, Mayo had come down inside to spy McNabb and was picked up by an OL. Adalius had gone around to the left side as if he wanted to blitz and was screend away from the play. Sey was unable to get off the LG's block, TBC came off the LT's block to pull down the RB after he'd crossed the line to gain. First down Iggles, 4 yds.
-- 1st and 10: T-form, 3-wide, 2 R, shotgun. NE 6-1 heavy (Pryor back in for Brace), Bodden in press, Wilhite off 6 yds, Safeties deep. Pass to Wilhite's man who ran a nice comeback after getting Wil to turn his hips. 11 yds.
-- 1st and 10: 4-wide, bunch duo outside RT, flankers wide, shotgun. NE 3-3 dime R-overload DL, 8 in the box, man-free. R flanker motions in towards the bunch, then stops on the numbers bringing Wilhite inside. Burgess was up as the LOLB outside the bunch, his rush force the 1x1 TE to stay in and block. Meriweather in press on the up-man of the bunch, Adalius in a 2-point inside over the RT forced him to stay inside instead of freeing up the TE and covering Burgess. Pryor and TBC came hard off the R-side, TBC froze the LT with a hip shimmy allowing Pryor to outrun the LG to the corner and duck inside the LT for the sack. Burgess, Adalius, and Meriweather all known blitzers/pass rushers lined up over the RT and bunch drew Philly's focus, leaving TBC and Pryor in 1-on-1 situations. Saaaweeet! Loss of 6 yds.
-- 2nd and 16: Phi 4-wide, shotgun. 4-2 nickel, man-free. Screen L, TBC read it and blew it up forcing the RB to reverse his field and try to escape to the R, but Burgess pushed him deeper buying time for the LBs and secondary to come up and make the tackle (Wilhite) for a loss of 7 yds.
-- 3rd and 23: 3-wide, 2 L, TE L, shotgun. NE 4-2 nickel, Sey and Green in for Wilfork and Pryor. Adalius blitz off the R side. DBs looked to have a zone on the S-side, with Butler in man on the W-side, Butler got a very nice jam on the receiver turning him inside before the two raced off together. The TE stayed in and blocked Adalius, then released him to the LT and ran a slide-stop to the numbers underneath the coverage. McNabb through off his back foot again, but his arm strength was plenty for that throw. 9 yds as defenders converged from everywhere.
-- 4th and 14: Punt, Edelman jukes the Gunner but can't beat the second wave (this was one of those times you just go forward and protect the ball, he danced, but he'll learn). Flag, illegal formation, -5 yds.
-- 4th and 19: Punt, Edelman takes the ball along the sideline, picks a crease and scoots through the crowd for a TD. I can't make out which blocker kept the first man flowing past Edelman, nice job. It looks like Alex Smith (best guess) had bumped his man towards the sideline then the two seperated, which was the crease Edelman picked turning sideways to slide through just out of reach of the defender and forcing Smith to throw is hands up and turn sideways to get real skinny himself - a fun "Holy Cow" moment. Lewis had a nice block upfield along the sideline and Chung doubled with him to seal the man outside, while Eric Alexander screened off the inside leaving Edelman a huge lane. Aiken and Green screened some stern chase pursuit and Butler pegged a guy upfield who would have had to be a burner to make a play - but Patriots hitting Opposition players in the course of a game is always fun. 75 yd TD return.
-- "Gahstowski" (them Iggle announcers) for the EP. Good, 14-3 NE.

 

[pats1]

If the Pats are going 4-3 full time this year how does Bruschi fit into the equation? Mayo's backup, doesn't play special teams?

In the roster projection thread, I had Bruschi being cut. That, of course, spawned a lot of reaction and much of this 4-3 vs. 3-4 talk.

 

[pats1]

Well if you are looking for a grade on your answer, its INCOMPLETE. What is Woods a better 4-3 OLB? or do you think he's incapable of playing OLB in a 3-4? Or is he a better 4-3 DE?

Get off your high horse and let us know.

He is less effective of a run stopper as a 3-4, set-the-edge OLB than Brace is as a 4-3 DT. Neither player will be on the field much for passing downs, so that part of the equation is taken out. All that matters are early downs, and in that case, having Brace on the field instead of Woods benefits the Patriots more.

And I dispute your notion that BB wouldn't give up a 9-year old scheme in a "radical change." First, I don't think it's that radical a shift. Second, while I think BB would prefer to run a 3-4 and has drafted that way, he will run the scheme that gives his best team to win. This year, he simply does not have the personnel to run a 3-4; see my earlier comments on Woods. And Burgess was by no means the answer at OLB, and immediately came into focus as the piece that "completed" the 4-3 scheme that we'll see this year, and that's a plus-pass rusher as a DE off the edge.

 

[pats1]

When did Randy Cross say this? I've re-watched the 1st quarter and part of the 2nd, and haven't heard anything of the sort.

If the Pats run the 4-3 exclusively this year, I don't expect the play-offs or the SB. The Defense just isn't built for it. Not to mention that Mayo was over-pursuing on most of the plays last night..

It's in there somewhere - Frezo remembered hearing it too. I forget when exactly it was.

In past years, I would have said exactly what you said, DaBruinz, about the 4-3. There was no way the personnel would fit it - Vrabel and Colvin would have to be DEs, and there would be three great players - Warren, Seymour, and Wilfork - to man two DT spots.

However, the departures of Vrabel and Colvin, the demise of Bruschi, the development of Mayo, the acquisition of Burgess, and the drafting of Brace have, obviously, changed things. While Seymour and Warren may not be your ideal 4-3 ends, they can and I believe will fit the bill as early down ends in this system. It's a big line, no doubt about it; this is by no means your Colts 4-3 or your Vikings 4-3. However, without two beefy, quality players to man the 3-4 OLB spots (something they've had in EVERY year they've run the 3-4), they simply are better off putting their best players on the field. Besides, when was the last time the Pats had two rangy, young LBs like Mayo and Guyton who are fully capable of playing a 4-3?

In reality, it's the Pats' third down package (non-nickel) that's really a "true" 4-3; it puts Banta-Cain/Green and Burgess on the field and moves Seymour and Warren to their "true" DT positions. So when I say the Pats are going to use a 4-3 this year, I think a lot of people conjure up that sort of 4-3 image. But that's not the case.

The sub packages are pretty much the same as last year; we've seen the base defense (read: early downs), and while in past years that has been the 3-4, it's going to be the 4-3 this year. Simple as that.