Drake Maye would be the IDEAL pick for the Patriots at #3

[40yrpatsfan]

Pick the quarterback at #3, trading is great if you want to get to 8 wins and build a roster that will never be a contender.

The best roster in the league just lost the Super Bowl because the other team with the average roster has the best QB in the league, a team with pro bowlers all over the field lost to a clearly inferior team at most positions.

If you don't get the QB you're dead, swing for the upside if he busts you'll be right back swinging at the top of the draft anyway.

What's more likely get an elite QB picking outside the top 10 or getting an elite OT and WR picking outside the top 10? It's the latter by a lot.

Yeah but that QB (Mahomes) was picked 10th. The discussion here is mainly about whether to take a QB at 3 or trade down within the top 10 or 11 and take one there.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

When he returned for his second year he was asked about the work he put in over the offseason, and his response was that he had cut down on ice cream. If he ever put in the work it didn’t show up.

To be fair, Mac did not fail because he did not work hard enough. To a man, every player mentioned his work habits when asked about their opinion of Mac. At this point it seems to be the only thing that they respected.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Josh Allen was rated much higher. His arm talent was other worldly. He is a freak. Taller, bigger, stronger.
Maye is not in the same tier as Allen was.

Interesting thing is that Milton is half an inch taller, 2lbs lighter, imho has a better arm, can run faster, jump higher and longer, and was more accurate in college (almost the same number of attempts weirdly enough). To me the processing issues have been overblown, especially since his struggles in '23 really came after losing his WR1 a few games in, but most legit people would strongly disagree with me there.

A comparison between Milton and Maye would be both of their games against Clemson 4 weeks apart at the end of the 2022 season. Maye faced 1st time starting QB true frosh Klubnik, and was terrible with 2 bad INTs with 1 a Mac special. Tennessee had more significant opt outs (not Jalin Hyatt nor Cedric Tillman), and Milton played very well against Clemson.

It's safe to say Maye really really missed Downs, who had a darn good rookie year.

 

[javajunky]

The thing about McCarthy is that he actually participated in the speed throwing measurements at the Combine, and that's when the script flipped on him. Throwing 61mph is no joke (just 1mph slower than Milton) and that's concrete data. We have no such measurements for MayJayCay except for estimating air yards. I currently have no evidence that May and Jay are better than JAGs in that regard having watched a slew of games, highlights, and throwing sessions. Cay (of whom I'm not a big fan) has evidence from games that he can launch it.

The amazing thing is that McCarthy did this while developing a new, more pro-ready rotational throwing motion this offseason.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Rick Spielman was on the committee for the Commanders that led to the hiring of Peters and Quinn. He has stated Maye is going before Daniels.
Spielman text from Maye's pro day: “You’re crazy if you think Jayden is going before Drake.”"
So rumor that Adam Peters was enamored with Drake Maye at the combine.
Now Spielman, who worked for the Commanders this off season says they are taking Drake Maye.
Have seen nothing stating the Commanders prefer Daniels.
I'm going to wager some money on Maye to the Commanders.

Interesting. Link?

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Or...pick the QB at 3, get Zack Wilson and get 4 wins and set the franchise back 5 years. Can you imagine what another 4 win season would do to this team? It would rip it apart. All the coaches and GM types would be fired and the team would have to start from scratch with a new coach and coordinators and GM. Then pick another QB at 3 and get another flop. It is the Jets model.

Too risky to pick a QB at 3.

Better to build the team incrementally by trading back....but, of course, this will not happen since Kraft, being a typical fan type, will force the taking of a QB at 3.

You don't find a quarterback by trading down in the draft, there's literally no examples of it.

You're just building the last 20 years of the Miami Dolphins floating around .500 with some good players and nothing to show for it, none of it matters without the quarterback every year a new rule comes in to make it easier on the quarterback.

The Patriots just played it safe taking Mac Jones with the supposed "high floor", trading down is again playing it safe and removing yourself the chance of getting a true game changer at quarterback, you could end up with Zach Wilson but you're 10x more likely to win a Super Bowl in the next 10 years if you pick a quarterback in the top 5 that hits than trading down and "building the roster" with no clear QB answer on the horizon.

If they trade down it's a cowards move, it almost deserves it blowing up in their faces and them trading away an elite QB, that's the kind of karma going for the 1990s style rebuild would deserve it would just show me that they don't get it and they still don't accept that without the QB none of the rest of it matters.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Right? This month is always the dog days of football waiting for the draft. NFL/college championships over, combine over, pro days done. Let the spread of misinformation spread until draft day while media and fans flips their picks every other day.

Don't forget reading 100 different mock drafts that won't turn out.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

You don't find a quarterback by trading down in the draft, there's literally no examples of it.

You're just building the last 20 years of the Miami Dolphins floating around .500 with some good players and nothing to show for it, none of it matters without the quarterback every year a new rule comes in to make it easier on the quarterback.

The Patriots just played it safe taking Mac Jones with the supposed "high floor", trading down is again playing it safe and removing yourself the chance of getting a true game changer at quarterback, you could end up with Zach Wilson but you're 10x more likely to win a Super Bowl in the next 10 years if you pick a quarterback in the top 5 that hits than trading down and "building the roster" with no clear QB answer on the horizon.

If they trade down it's a cowards move, it almost deserves it blowing up in their faces and them trading away an elite QB, that's the kind of karma going for the 1990s style rebuild would deserve it would just show me that they don't get it and they still don't accept that without the QB none of the rest of it matters.

It's quite possible that a QB taken later in the first round or later rounds ends up being the best QB of this draft class, that said I want them to take one at 3 but it's not a sure thing by any means.

 

[moosekill]

Tackles in the top 10 have a just as bad or worse success rate than a QB in the top 10.
50% of top 10 QB's became starters, 50% of all first-round picks become starters.
Trade down you are increasing odds with more picks but your still 50/50 with each pick. So, you may very well give up a Franchise QB for 1 good WR?

They would not likely get a high pick in 2025 in trade, they'd likely get 1 in the 20's, which talent wise, equates to a late 2nd round pick in 2024 since 2024 is a much better draft class.

WR's have the highest success rate but most top WR are taken well after the top 10 and you will have the chance to draft one in round 2.

Sanders is the top QB next year, already saying will not play for a cold weather team, he also currently rates below Maye, Daniels and Williams. The drop from Sanders to the next group is big. They will highly likely be unable to get a QB in 2025. Onto QB purgatory Yay!

You have way higher odds of getting a WR or tackle in 2025 or in round 2 or 3 in 2024 than drafting a QB in 2025. 2025 draft class is shaping up as one of the weakest in years.

The odds highly favor drafting QB at 3. It is the most sensible thing and other than taking a WR it is the safest thing as well.
Sit him a year and in 2025 you can have Tackle, WR and QB all set. Otherwise, you won't have a QB for the foreseeable future and thus won't win.

Daniels and Maye are rated too highly to pass on for the most important position in the sport.

Your numbers are different than any I have ever seen before. Care to share where they come from?

 

[Patsgofor4]

Rick Spielman was on the committee for the Commanders that led to the hiring of Peters and Quinn. He has stated Maye is going before Daniels.
Spielman text from Maye's pro day: “You’re crazy if you think Jayden is going before Drake.”"
So rumor that Adam Peters was enamored with Drake Maye at the combine.
Now Spielman, who worked for the Commanders this off season says they are taking Drake Maye.
Have seen nothing stating the Commanders prefer Daniels.
I'm going to wager some money on Maye to the Commanders.

Found the clip to which you are referring.



Spielman is the guy who still has a great head of hair. That wasn’t a text from (or to) Spielmam. His co-host Ryan Wilson received that “You’re crazy if….” text from another source. If you watch the whole podcast video, right before where this tweet starts Wilson says “I want to run things by you that I heard inside the facility (UNC’s football facility) and from league sources.”

Wilson then comments that Spielman has “flip flopped” on whether Maye or Daniels will go off the board first. Watching the clip, it doesn’t sound to me like Spielman was regurgitating Commanders inside info, when he agreed with Wilson.

 

[KCSVEN]

That wasn’t a text from (or to) Spielmam. His co-host Ryan Wilson received that “You’re crazy if….” text from another source.

Oh I think maybe you are right on that "That's just what I said, didn't I" confused me thinking he had sent the text.
He still thinks Maye is before Daniels regardless but without that text not as strong a comment.
However, every quote from people live at the pro days has Maye having the best pro day, couple that with Peters supposedly loving Maye at the combine still would wager Maye to the Commanders.
The fact the Commanders were laughing it up big time with Maye at the pro day doesn't influence me much but an interesting look anyways.

Personally, IMO Daniels is the surest thing of the 2 though his upside is not as high as Maye. Maye has the higher upside but also more bust potential. I'm probably happy with either one at this point. Daniels could play day 1, Maye would need to sit at least half the year.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Taking a QB at 3 instead of trading down is a typical fan move and unfortunately, Kraft falls into that category and is going to force the taking of a QB at 3. This is the Jets model for continual suck-a-tude.

But look at recent draft history of QBs. It is all over the place.

Taking a QB at 3 does not guarantee anything and you have a good chance of taking the next Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, or Sam Darnold. By the same token, look where Mahomes (10), Watson(12), and Lamar Jackson(32) went.


2107: Number 2 Mitchell Trubisky
2017: Number 10: Mahomes
2017: Number 12: Deshon Watson

2018: Number 1: Baker Mayfield
2018: Number 3: Sam Darnold
2018 Number 7: Josh Allen
2018 Number 10: Josh Rosen
2018 Number 32: Lamar Jackson

2019: Number 1: Kyler Murray
2019: Number 6: Daniel Jones
2019 Number 15: Dwayne Haskins

2020: Number 1: Joe Burrow
2020: Number 5: Tua Tagovailoa
2020: Number 6: Justin Herbet
2020: Number 26: Jordan Love
2020: Number 53: Jalen Hurts

2021: Number 1: Trevor Lawrence
2021: Number 2: Zack Wilson
2021: Number 3: Trey Lawrence
2012: Number 11: Justin Fields
2012: Number 15: Mac Jones

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Taking a QB at 3 instead of trading down is a typical fan move and unfortunately, Kraft falls into that category and is going to force the taking of a QB at 3. This is the Jets model for continual suck-a-tude.

But look at recent draft history of QBs. It is all over the place.

Taking a QB at 3 does not guarantee anything and you have a good chance of taking the next Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, or Sam Darnold. By the same token, look where Mahomes (10), Watson(12), and Lamar Jackson(32) went.


2107: Number 2 Mitchell Trubisky
2017: Number 10: Mahomes
2017: Number 12: Deshon Watson

2018: Number 1: Baker Mayfield
2018: Number 3: Sam Darnold
2018 Number 7: Josh Allen
2018 Number 10: Josh Rosen
2018 Number 32: Lamar Jackson

2019: Number 1: Kyler Murray
2019: Number 6: Daniel Jones
2019 Number 15: Dwayne Haskins

2020: Number 1: Joe Burrow
2020: Number 5: Tua Tagovailoa
2020: Number 6: Justin Herbet
2020: Number 26: Jordan Love
2020: Number 53: Jalen Hurts

2021: Number 1: Trevor Lawrence
2021: Number 2: Zack Wilson
2021: Number 3: Trey Lawrence
2012: Number 11: Justin Fields
2012: Number 15: Mac Jones

Trading down doesn’t guarantee anything either though. Yall have no problem acknowledging the risks of taking the qb but ignore the risks of picks from 10-30. Trading down You can end up with mac jones, isiah wynn, and nkeal harry. It may be ‘safer’ than swinging on a qb but the question is is it safer ENOUGH to pass up on the qb.

To me the answer is no. Over the next 5-10 years, having 2 additional MID first rounders , even in the best case scenario that you land 2 quality starters from it, is not going to be the difference between whether we can win a sb or not. It might get you to 9 or 10 wins vs 7 or 8, but the only route we have to being legit contenders again is having the great qb. While we are in this position theres no better time to take a shot at one.

The only way we should trade down is if we have nix/penix/ or some dark horse QB rated fairly close to maye/daniels/mccarthy. If we are as high on the latter 3 as everyone else is its the move to make. Biggest area of need plus the player is worthy of being picked there.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Taking a QB at 3 instead of trading down is a typical fan move and unfortunately, Kraft falls into that category and is going to force the taking of a QB at 3. This is the Jets model for continual suck-a-tude.

But look at recent draft history of QBs. It is all over the place.

Taking a QB at 3 does not guarantee anything and you have a good chance of taking the next Zack Wilson, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, or Sam Darnold. By the same token, look where Mahomes (10), Watson(12), and Lamar Jackson(32) went.


2107: Number 2 Mitchell Trubisky
2017: Number 10: Mahomes
2017: Number 12: Deshon Watson

2018: Number 1: Baker Mayfield
2018: Number 3: Sam Darnold
2018 Number 7: Josh Allen
2018 Number 10: Josh Rosen
2018 Number 32: Lamar Jackson

2019: Number 1: Kyler Murray
2019: Number 6: Daniel Jones
2019 Number 15: Dwayne Haskins

2020: Number 1: Joe Burrow
2020: Number 5: Tua Tagovailoa
2020: Number 6: Justin Herbet
2020: Number 26: Jordan Love
2020: Number 53: Jalen Hurts

2021: Number 1: Trevor Lawrence
2021: Number 2: Zack Wilson
2021: Number 3: Trey Lawrence
2012: Number 11: Justin Fields
2012: Number 15: Mac Jones

Clearly history backs your position. As you state, fan pressure is a driver for teams to pick a QB high in the draft as is arrogance by teams that think they can change a player to eliminate known red flags. Manzel is the poster child for dumb drafting. It would be to somehow determine which of these players were drafted as the BPA at QB vs. someone the team truly liked based on their scouting and analysis.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Oh I think maybe you are right on that "That's just what I said, didn't I" confused me thinking he had sent the text.
He still thinks Maye is before Daniels regardless but without that text not as strong a comment.
However, every quote from people live at the pro days has Maye having the best pro day, couple that with Peters supposedly loving Maye at the combine still would wager Maye to the Commanders.
The fact the Commanders were laughing it up big time with Maye at the pro day doesn't influence me much but an interesting look anyways.

Personally, IMO Daniels is the surest thing of the 2 though his upside is not as high as Maye. Maye has the higher upside but also more bust potential. I'm probably happy with either one at this point. Daniels could play day 1, Maye would need to sit at least half the year.

Very unfortunate that Pats lost the tiebreaker to Washington, as they are now obviously at the mercy of what the Commanders decide to do. The Pats beating Denver on the road has been well documented here but the Commanders loss to the Jets week 15 still stings. The were ahead 28-27 but let the Jets drive down into field goal range and Zuerlein kicked a 54 yd FG with 5 seconds left.

Another notable thing about that game was Brissett replacing a brutal Howell (5/22 for 56 yds and 2 picks…WOOF) and almost leading them to a win. Went 10/13 for 100 yds and a passing TD. It was obvious for most of the second half of the season that Brissett gave them a better chance to win, which is precisely why Howell kept being thrown out there as the starter.

 

[The Gr8est]

Trading down doesn’t guarantee anything either though. Yall have no problem acknowledging the risks of taking the qb but ignore the risks of picks from 10-30. Trading down You can end up with mac jones, isiah wynn, and nkeal harry. It may be ‘safer’ than swinging on a qb but the question is is it safer ENOUGH to pass up on the qb.

To me the answer is no. Over the next 5-10 years, having 2 additional MID first rounders , even in the best case scenario that you land 2 quality starters from it, is not going to be the difference between whether we can win a sb or not. It might get you to 9 or 10 wins vs 7 or 8, but the only route we have to being legit contenders again is having the great qb. While we are in this position theres no better time to take a shot at one.

The only way we should trade down is if we have nix/penix/ or some dark horse QB rated fairly close to maye/daniels/mccarthy. If we are as high on the latter 3 as everyone else is its the move to make. Biggest area of need plus the player is worthy of being picked there.

Trading down guarantees more bites at the apple, and good bites too.

We need lots of pieces, and there are some promising candidates at the 2nd tier QBs as well.

If you take a QB at 3 and miss you get nothing.

Even if we take a QB at 3 he is going to sit for a year (not great for an older candidate like Daniels), and Pats are likely picking high next year.

A lot depends on who is available at 3.

 

[mgteich]

A lot depends on who is available at 3.

Is your suggestion that we will pass on Maye? or on Daniels? or Williams?

Obviously, at least one will be available.

I suspect that we will pick at 3 no matter who is available.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Trading down guarantees more bites at the apple, and good bites too.

We need lots of pieces, and there are some promising candidates at the 2nd tier QBs as well.

If you take a QB at 3 and miss you get nothing.

Even if we take a QB at 3 he is going to sit for a year (not great for an older candidate like Daniels), and Pats are likely picking high next year.

A lot depends on who is available at 3.

I agree it depends on who is there and how much we like the guy. If you really like someone at 3 youve got to go for it, its the more franchise altering hit by a mile if you land someone vs taking additional picks in the middle of the round. If you miss, you still have a very good field of picks to work with. 34 is like another first rounder. And like you said worst case scenario would have us back here next year with a chance to stockpile picks. I don’t think any of us expect to compete for much this year so the qb sitting isn’t that detrimental either.

Theres no guarantees here no matter what strategy you take. Its up to you to choose your balance of splurging and being conservative, and there has to be a balance if you’re ever going to achieve the next level. To me this draft is qb rich at the top and very deep at other needs like wr and ot. So in addition to my reasoning above, it also Just seems like a good pattern for qb first and the others later, if you believe in the guy whos there at 3.

 

[mgteich]

One likely choice will be
Drake at 3 (certainly there is no choice with Daniels available)

or
McCarthy, Penix or Nix at about 11 (or perhaps a bit earlier)
Guyton or Mims at 23 or so
a wide receiver in the top of the 4th, and
a MIN first in the 2025 draft
=====================
Comparing these quarterbacks now is a bit misleading. None is likely to have meaningful action in 2024. Compare them as to their likely value starting in Game One of 2025 after each has been trained up for a year.

 

[The Gr8est]

Is your suggestion that we will pass on Maye? or on Daniels? or Williams?

Obviously, at least one will be available.

I suspect that we will pick at 3 no matter who is available.

Daniels concerns me with his age and physical stature.

A team in “win now” mode, who just lacks the QB, might be willing to give up a lot to take him.