Drake Maye would be the IDEAL pick for the Patriots at #3

[Ivan]

I like the back and forth. If we are open minded we both learn.
I like Daniels. His is a dominant athlete. But that does not always translate in the NFL. He thrived on the long ball. If you watch his tape he had a lot of time to throw being protected by a very good OLine. He had 2 dominant speed recievers. He will have 3-4 seconds to throw in the NFL. That means short to intermediate passes while using the middle of the field. 2 areas where Daniels is questionable. Every now and then you get extra blocking for the deep ball.
As far as best player in College football. That means nothing once you enter the Pro’s
So was Bryce Young, Murray, Mariota, Winston, Manziel, Griffin, Mayfield. Except fir Burrow and Lamar the rest were nit very good long term
As I just posted To BSG. I think it is just important if they were in a Pro Offense, 3rd down conversion rate, RedZone, how they played against top ranked defenses. If they played under the big lights and how they performed. How they played in cold and windy weather conditions etc
So I do listen to blogs. But they get a lot wrong. Doing some research myself makes me feel better about certain players
Believe me I barely know what I’m looking at. But it’s fun and educational. Putting what I had seen in tapes and then listen to blogs. I can confirm or deny what they are saying. Some things they are wrong about is obvious that they are way off base. Most of what they say you can see
Give McCarthy a chance, you seem to just be going on what the pundits are saying now. This could all look different in 2 months. It always does

I’m going on what I have read, seen, and heard. I liked what I heard about McCarthy but wasn’t impressed at all when I saw him against Alabama. I really like what I have seen and heard about Daniels, and I think he’s got the potential to be a franchise QB, which I don’t believe about McCarthy, Nix, Penix, and the rest. When you are using a pick that high then the ceiling has to be really high, and I think the top 3 have that, the others could end up starting, but I don’t see them turning teams into serious contenders. All of the top teams in the AFC have franchise QB’s , and the only way I see the Patriots contending in the next 5-7 years is if the Patriots are able to get one and build a great team around them, they won’t do it with a 2nd tier QB.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

I’m going on what I have read, seen, and heard. I liked what I heard about McCarthy but wasn’t impressed at all when I saw him against Alabama. I really like what I have seen and heard about Daniels, and I think he’s got the potential to be a franchise QB, which I don’t believe about McCarthy, Nix, Penix, and the rest. When you are using a pick that high then the ceiling has to be really high, and I think the top 3 have that, the others could end up starting, but I don’t see them turning teams into serious contenders. All of the top teams in the AFC have franchise QB’s , and the only way I see the Patriots contending in the next 5-7 years is if the Patriots are able to get one and build a great team around them, they won’t do it with a 2nd tier QB.

I want what you want.
I like the Top 3
I think it may be Top 4 when it all iron’s itself out.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

That is something that I have been wondering about
How are the top QB’s on 3rd down and red zone
Also against top defenses

McCarthy made some big throws against Alabama when needed

I'm saving that for the thread but he's money in high leverage situations

 

[Aussie Patriot]

Height, build, young age , arm strength , intermediate pass abilities. Low interception Rate, high difficult catch throw % . Morr potential .

Daniels - really worried about build and durability. He had 2 stud receivers . Not considered to be great at ibter mediate throws.

If you are concerned about Daniels build then why doesn't it bother you with JJ?

Daniels is 210, JJ 202. Yes Daniels is 2 years older so you would expect JJ will add weight, but how much we don't know.

I'm not defending Daniels btw, i'm a Maye believer.

 

[mgteich]

We could trade down and get much needed extra picks if McCarthy is the real deal. I don't think McCarthy will last past 15 in R1. QBs never last long. McCarthy sitting for a year is OK, I doubt he would be behind Zappe.

Depending on whether Nix is OK with us, we can certainly trade down. I expect all 5 QB's to be gone before 15. I don't see us trading down lower than 8. We do certainly need an additional 2nd rounder for a 2nd OT. We should even get this trading down to 6.

Of course, a problem extists if McCarthy is our choice and he continues to move up. If he is the 4th QB, we might not be able to trade back further than 5.

 

[Brick27]

Maye gives me a blend of Trubisky/Bortles career trajectory vibes. Can’t substantiate, just how it feels. Would stay away.

 

[Toofy]

I was looking at a 202q podcast from BR qb specialist scout around 2021 qb prospects and the points he raises are bang on...



Start from around 48 minutes where he talks about Mac jones. All points seem super valid .

And he is not too Gung ho about JJ McCarthy . Considering the way he evaluates , we should take notice.

 

[KCSVEN]

McCarthy is a lot closer to Daniels than fans want to admit. He's going to have multiple teams in on him like LAR, Vikings etc bc hes a perfect fit there

Unless you're watching the games yourself you'll always be able to throw stuff like this out there. Who were the games against? Type of defense the were facing? 3rd or 4th quarter? What was the score?

I'm not casting doubt on the veracity but a 4 game sample size for a 5th year SR isn't really moving the needle for me.

You should post the link though. I'm going to start a QB only thread. Hopefully just analysis and stuff like this to go over.

You can get all the details under this reddit posters posts, he lists which games.
(Daniels: 2023 Games Charted: Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss, Florida State)

Yes, as mentioned a small sample size (Other than the average depth of throw which was from another site and is for the full season).

Daniels also ranked high in Big time Throw % which PFF notes as an important predicative stat in terms of translating to the NFL

Big time Throw %
Jayden Daniels - 8.4%
Drake Maye - 7.5%
Michael Penix Jr. - 7.3%
Caleb Williams - 6.2%
JJ McCarthy - 6%
Bo Nix - 4.2%.

Based on tape I watched almost EVERY throw by Daniels. I do question the intermediate middle of the field ability ONLY because in at Least 4 instances he had NFL windows and did not throw the ball. All 4 play were positive in the end, he ran on 2 and scrambled until the guy was more open on 2 but in the NFL not sure how that would work out.
I wonder if he does not trust his arm strength or if he knows he can extend the play, have a better window, and avoid a possible turnover? So, it is a question, but the stats don't back it up. You could say it is his receivers but then the Big Time Throw % should not be so high.

Bo NIx at such a low average depth of throw and low Big Time throw % makes him a complete pass in this draft IMO.

First Link has links to all the evaluations, second link is Daniels.

Loading…

www.reddit.com

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You can get all the details under this reddit posters posts, he lists which games.
(Daniels: 2023 Games Charted: Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss, Florida State)

Yes, as mentioned a small sample size (Other than the average depth of throw which was from another site and is for the full season).

Daniels also ranked high in Big time Throw % which PFF notes as an important predicative stat in terms of translating to the NFL

Big time Throw %
Jayden Daniels - 8.4%
Drake Maye - 7.5%
Michael Penix Jr. - 7.3%
Caleb Williams - 6.2%
JJ McCarthy - 6%
Bo Nix - 4.2%.

Based on tape I watched almost EVERY throw by Daniels. I do question the intermediate middle of the field ability ONLY because in at Least 4 instances he had NFL windows and did not throw the ball. All 4 play were positive in the end, he ran on 2 and scrambled until the guy was more open on 2 but in the NFL not sure how that would work out.
I wonder if he does not trust his arm strength or if he knows he can extend the play, have a better window, and avoid a possible turnover? So, it is a question, but the stats don't back it up. You could say it is his receivers but then the Big Time Throw % should not be so high.

Bo NIx at such a low average depth of throw and low Big Time throw % makes him a complete pass in this draft IMO.

First Link has links to all the evaluations, second link is Daniels.

Loading…

www.reddit.com

Anyone that's really watched him sees he gives up open mof shots for a deep ball, will take off or scramble. Tons of instances. Most of the time the result is positive but yea the NFL is a different animal. And when you do see him pass to the mof it's not tight windows or layering balls. It's mostly two top 15-20 NFL WR prospects in Nabers and Thomas separating.


A lot of this in Daniels tape. He took off for positive gain but there's plenty of this on his tape if we're being honest.


He's late on some passes that require precise timing. Back shoulders, comebacks, some in cutting stuff. You can't get away with that in the mof.

I like Daniels, a lot. I'm just not if AVP is a "Daniels" guy. In terms of style. And we have absolutely no one to really complement his greatest strengths. He had clean clean pockets at LSU with a WR corp better than ours. He won't have any of that here early on. This isn't a 1 year rebuild. Not sure if people are understanding this or not but this isn't a playoff team next year.

 

[KCSVEN]

And when you do see him pass to the mof it's not tight windows or layering balls. It's mostly two top 15-20 NFL WR prospects in Nabers and Thomas separating.

Big time throw % was one of highest in the nation so the stats don't back up that premise. Burrow (with top WR's also) was up near an all-time great 9.5% in college at LSU final year. Daniels is 8.4%. Above 6% is pretty good. That stat helps separate the QB from the talent around him a bit.

LSU O-Line was not great, Washington and Oregon were great, LSU was middle of the pack. Daniels success rate under pressure was really good.

The odds of drafting as good a QB in 2025 are really SLIM as it is a weak class, and you need to pick #1 overall for Sanders.
The QB drafted will be here for 10 years, so a 2-3 year rebuild is fine and the easiest way to win is get the QB and then build around them.

I need to see weight, 40 time, some workout throws etc. before I would take Daniels but if he passes those tests you have to take him if he is there.
It is QB or bust in the NFL and this might be your only chance, for a while, to draft a possible top 10-15 NFL QB.
You will be in mediocrity for the next decade without one.

 

[The Gr8est]

Big time throw % was one of highest in the nation so the stats don't back up that premise. Burrow (with top WR's also) was up near an all-time great 9.5% in college at LSU final year. Daniels is 8.4%. Above 6% is pretty good. That stat helps separate the QB from the talent around him a bit.

LSU O-Line was not great, Washington and Oregon were great, LSU was middle of the pack. Daniels success rate under pressure was really good.

The odds of drafting as good a QB in 2025 are really SLIM as it is a weak class, and you need to pick #1 overall for Sanders.
The QB drafted will be here for 10 years, so a 2-3 year rebuild is fine and the easiest way to win is get the QB and then build around them.

I need to see weight, 40 time, some workout throws etc. before I would take Daniels but if he passes those tests you have to take him if he is there.
It is QB or bust in the NFL and this might be your only chance, for a while, to draft a possible top 10-15 NFL QB.
You will be in mediocrity for the next decade without one.

I like that we are getting some really good discussion on this topic and should be able to have well informed opinions come draft day.

Of course, what really matters are the opinions of AVP and McAdoo.

This is a critical decision for the Pats’ future and I’m glad the Pats hired a couple of guys who have the QB chops to be up to the task.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Big time throw % was one of highest in the nation so the stats don't back up that premise. Burrow (with top WR's also) was up near an all-time great 9.5% in college at LSU final year. Daniels is 8.4%. Above 6% is pretty good. That stat helps separate the QB from the talent around him a bit.

BTT% was very impressive but im talking specifically about a certain area of the field.

If youre watching A22 this is what you're seeing over the mof. Mostly wide open guys that can separate. Not much layering or tight windows. Very clean pockets and two top 15-20 targets. That was the norm for that area. That matters a lot when you're talking about an older prospect.

I will post a few clips later that illustrate what he was working with in that area.

LSU O-Line was not great, Washington and Oregon were great, LSU was middle of the pack. Daniels success rate under pressure was really good.

LSU came into the year with a top ten rated group and left with a top 8-12 group in the country. 15th at absolute worst. LSU was not middle of the pack. Esp in pass pro. How people are so off here is beyond me. There's no way someone watched multiple a22 games and didn't see clean pocket after clean pocket.

The odds of drafting as good a QB in 2025 are really SLIM as it is a weak class, and you need to pick #1 overall for Sanders.
The QB drafted will be here for 10 years, so a 2-3 year rebuild is fine and the easiest way to win is get the QB and then build around them.
I need to see weight, 40 time, some workout throws etc. before I would take Daniels but if he passes those tests you have to take him if he is there.
It is QB or bust in the NFL and this might be your only chance, for a while, to draft a possible top 10-15 NFL QB.
You will be in mediocrity for the next decade without one.

I'm not against Daniels at all. I just think it's good to be honest about who he is. Stats are great but know what to look for on film. What translates there. There's a lot to like about Daniels for sure.

The mediocrity label isn't going to hold up when this team is in the top ten next no matter the QB or we you take at 3. This is a 2 year rebuild if we're lucky. If this QB doesn't workout you try again in 26 or take a flyer on someone next year.

Acting like this draft will make or break this franchise for the next 10 years is a little dramatic

 

[mgteich]

I like that we are getting some really good discussion on this topic and should be able to have well informed opinions come draft day.

Of course, what really matters are the opinions of AVP and McAdoo.

This is a critical decision for the Pats’ future and I’m glad the Pats hired a couple of guys who have the QB chops to be up to the task.

There are several QB's that can be coached up over the next 2-3 years.

Obviously, much depends on interviews and pro days.

And yes, we have a staff with QB chops, hopefully with more coming. For example, are our QB coach and assistant QB coach officially hired yet?

 

[KCSVEN]

LSU came into the year with a top ten rated group and left with a top 8-12 group in the country. 15th at absolute worst. LSU was not middle of the pack. Esp in pass pro. How people are so off here is beyond me. There's no way someone watched multiple a22 games and didn't see clean pocket after clean pocket.

Yeah, my bad on that I was remembering a comparison between Washington, LSU and Oregon and the stat, can't remember what it was now, but was related to QB sacks or pressures and put them in the middle of the pack. Was an outlier for the O Line in general but at the time stood out to me that he did not have as clean a pocket as the O Line praise would make you think. Will see if I can find that stat again.

Right now, only 2 prospects in 2025 would make the top 10 in 2024. Yes, it can change but part of the evaluation is figuring out next year's draft strengths. It has a very high likelihood of being a very weak draft.
I would trade next year's pick if I could package it with the 2nd to get one of the top 10 players this year and get 2 actual first round prospects. Harrison and a tackle and sign Mayfield, I'd be OK with. Depending on the Eval of Daniels.

All comes down to the evaluation, I want Drake Maye. I love Drake Maye. I hope Wash. takes Daniels. I'm not sold on Daniels but IMO he'll be better than Fields and at worst the 20th best QB, just not sure he is any better than that, yet. If Pats think he will be, they should take him.

FYI, Big Time Throw is usually down the field throws.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I'm saving that for the thread but he's money in high leverage situations

Interesting to read, thanks for this. It’s recency bias a bit on my end and being spoiled by Brady, but I’ve come to the conclusion that most NFL QBs can play well if things are going right. Mac Jones played well much of his rookie year and a couple of games to start 2023; Zac Wilson won AFC player of the week once. But I think the ultimate difference between top QBs and everyone else is how they respond when things don’t go well. Brady was master at handling the blitz; Mac crumbled. Etc. It’s really what poise is all about. We see it now with Mahomes, who really only has ever had one bad playoff game (SB vs Brady ).

Give me NFL minimum level arm strength and NFL minimum level accuracy, and overload him with poise and ice water, and i’ll take that guy every day of the week. This type of data point on McCarthy is a major checkmark in his favor for me, but will be interesting to see if he has other data points supporting the same conclusion.

 

[patsfan13]

Maye gives me a blend of Trubisky/Bortles career trajectory vibes. Can’t substantiate, just how it feels. Would stay away.

Yet his build and Arm are more like Josh Allen.

 

[Ivan]

BTT% was very impressive but im talking specifically about a certain area of the field.

If youre watching A22 this is what you're seeing over the mof. Mostly wide open guys that can separate. Not much layering or tight windows. Very clean pockets and two top 15-20 targets. That was the norm for that area. That matters a lot when you're talking about an older prospect.

I will post a few clips later that illustrate what he was working with in that area.

LSU came into the year with a top ten rated group and left with a top 8-12 group in the country. 15th at absolute worst. LSU was not middle of the pack. Esp in pass pro. How people are so off here is beyond me. There's no way someone watched multiple a22 games and didn't see clean pocket after clean pocket.

I'm not against Daniels at all. I just think it's good to be honest about who he is. Stats are great but know what to look for on film. What translates there. There's a lot to like about Daniels for sure.

The mediocrity label isn't going to hold up when this team is in the top ten next no matter the QB or we you take at 3. This is a 2 year rebuild if we're lucky. If this QB doesn't workout you try again in 26 or take a flyer on someone next year.

Acting like this draft will make or break this franchise for the next 10 years is a little dramatic

I see it as a 2 year rebuild as well, but if they don’t take their franchise QB while they have a top 3 pick then I don’t see where they are going to get it short of giving up multiple 1st rounders for one in a future draft. You aren’t going to get one in free agency, and the odds against getting one with later picks are stacked against them, as are the odds of beating the best teams in the conference and league without one. And I have yet to see anyone provide a rational answer as to where they are going to get a franchise QB if they don’t use their best pick in over 30 years for one. They can put all sorts of pieces in place, but if they don’t get QB right it isn’t going to matter, so yes, I think this draft is critical to their future.

 

[EMpats]

I feel very strongly that Daniels is going to end up as the best QB from this draft and a top 5 QB in the NFL. I think he ends up in Washington.

That said I like Maye a lot and would definitely gamble on his potential at 3. He reminds me of Herbert but more willing to use his legs to extend plays.

 

[Drunken Cicerone]

His ceiling is through the roof to the point you’d almost be dumb not to take him at 3, BUT he’s kind of a meathead and lost games as a QB he should have easily won.

 

[Love The Drake]

His ceiling is through the roof to the point you’d almost be dumb not to take him at 3, BUT he’s kind of a meathead and lost games as a QB he should have easily won.

I saw his NFL Comparison being Big Ben.