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- Oct 10, 2006
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WHY NOT INCLUDE 2007
The 2007 was an awful draft class. Re-drafts show that Meriweather was a reasonable choice. We got value while he was here. We made no other 1st or 2nd or 3rd round choices. We did use two draft choices to trade for Welker and Moss.
The Patriots unceremoniously dumped a two-time Pro Bowl player. That's a fail pick, particularly given what went immediately after him:
Jon Beason
Anthony Spencer
Robert Meachem
Joe Staley
Ben Grubbs
Craig Davis
Greg Olsen
Anthony Gonzalez
Alan Branch
Paul Posluszny
WHAT ARE HITS?
I think some define hits as studs. You and I probably agree on what the term means. I think sure starter is right for 1st and 2nd round picks, hopefully by his 2nd year. I believe that Spikes was our starting MLB this year and started much of last year at ILB. We all wanted a run-stopping ILB. Belichick was willing to use a 2nd to get one. He succeeded.
I like Spikes. He's a situational player, though, as opposed to a true starter. He's a definite hit on day two. On day one, I could see either side of the argument. I think Spikes has a chance to improve enough against the pass in a 3-4 defense that he'll be able to clearly remove the situational tag, but I'm not certain it'll happen.
WHY NOT THIRD ROUNDERS?
First, I agree that Belichick has not done well recently in drafting after the 2nd round (other than trades or trading forward for a 2nd round pick). We do have Hernandez, not much to show for all the 3rd and 4th round picks. Belichick does do well late: Deaderick, Edelman, Pryor, and Slater.
This is a matter of personal preference. I consider Rounds 1 and 2 to be top draft choices. I consider 3rd and 4th rounders to be mid-round choices. In the past, 3rd and 4th rounders were expected to always make the team, barring injury. I consider the last three rounds to be late round picks.
So, what it seemingly comes down to is one big "hit" in rounds 1-3 since 2004, in Mayo, 3 players who were starters but certainly didn't reach an acclimation status (Hobbs, Chung, Sanders), 1 who has the jury still out (McCourty) and a bunch of lesser players (i.e. Spikes - good, but situational, player) or stiffs (several).
I think many people would look at just the two first rounders in 2003 and 2004 and think that was a better haul (Warren/Wilfork) than all the rounds 1-3 in 2005-2010 combined. Even for those who wouldn't, I'd think that the history going back to 2009 serves as a pretty fair indictment of trading down when you're not running a hot streak in the draft.
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