Draft picks are overrated

[Snake Eyes]

knowing that the draft is a crapshoot and on average a team will hit on, say, 50% of picks -- all else being equal if you have more picks you will have more contributing players

The problem with that idea is that you misss on more players the further down in the draft you go, there's a reason why there are a lot more Hall of Famers in round 1 than in round 7.

 

[hodgey]

Do yourself a favor and look at the most successful teams in the league over the past decade and see how they built/build their teams....its through the draft. The Pats, Steelers, Colts, Eagles and now the new bully on the block the Packers all of it through the draft.

The only thing your post shows is that you are ignorant to how teams win in the NFL. The core of a good team will come via the draft and then those teams will fill out the roster through FA and a trade here and there.

This isn't baseball ask the Redskins and this years Eagles team who got away from this philosophy.

All those teams were successful due to quarterback play. Once you secure a championship quarterback you should take advantage by supplementing the roster with complementary players by draft, FA, and trade. I think we would all feel more confident with another quality safety, and maybe another LB obtained this week via trade. I dont think its an all or nothing, but with the pats being so close it was time to deal.

 

[Simkin]

My point is that for example I ll trade our first this year for a 07 Mike Vrabel. Even with his age and this issues, sometimes you need to make this kind of things to improve.

 

[JJDChE]

I think the OP is right, as long as you don't misinterpret the intent. Drafting isn't overrated, but individual drafts picks are MASSIVELY overrated (mostly by fans, because they view every one as a lottery ticket).

There were a lot of people questioning the 2nd rd pick for Welker. Even disregarding how that turned out, that was a deal. If you can get a productive player with your second round pick every year, you'd probably have the best team ever.

Some people want a probowler with every pick. It just doesn't work that way.

I assume the trade for Palmer prompted this thread. If Palmer is even 90% of his former self and he can be that for a few years, it was well worth the picks.

 

[LetsGoPats36]

Having the best QB and coach in the game has made us an obvious outlier.

You won't find many teams without those key components that succeed while drafting poorly.

 

[JJDChE]

Having the best QB and coach in the game has made us an obvious outlier.

You won't find many teams without those key components that succeed while drafting poorly.

The point is that those teams would still be stupid to hold on to picks, if they could get proven productive players in trade for them, on the CHANCE that the draft pick might turn out to be a star.

 

[sbpatfan]

Yeah, trading is infallible! You always get Moss and Weller like players. Trades never result in guys named Derek Burgess or Alex Smith.

This is such an idiotic thread.

Also, you have to love Sinking assumptions,"Gost could've went undrafted." The dude lives in an entirely different universe.

 

[JJDChE]

Yeah, trading is infallible! You always get Moss and Weller like players. Trades never result in guys named Derek Burgess or Alex Smith.

This is such an idiotic thread.

Also, you have to love Sinking assumptions,"Gost could've went undrafted." The dude lives in an entirely different universe.

It is certainly less fallible.

EDIT: Also, Gost certainly could've gone undrafted if we didn't pick him. He wasn't the clear top kicker, and only one other kicker went in the draft, and it was a guy who wasn't even on the radar.

 

[Fencer]

In any listing of the best and most important players on the team, a large majority were drafted by the Patriots. For example, the list might go:

Brady
Welker
Wilfork
Mayo
Gronk
Mankins
Arrington
McCourty
Woodhead
Light
Vollmer
BJGE
Chung
Carter
Branch
Waters
Koppen

That wouldn't necessarily be my list or order at all, but it's representative, and I think it suffices to establish the point.

 

[condon84]

Why wouldnt that apply to Free Agency and Trades?

It applies to all football transactions

 

[Deus Irae]

My point is that for example I ll trade our first this year for a 07 Mike Vrabel. Even with his age and this issues, sometimes you need to make this kind of things to improve.

1.) Trading a draft pick for a player you already know works for the team is a silly way to try proving your point. Would you trade that pick for Adalius Thomas?

2.) Trading a 1st for 2007 Vrabel would be the sort of bad move that gets GMs fired.

 

[Deus Irae]

It is certainly less fallible.

Please demonstrate this with certainty.

EDIT: Also, Gost certainly could've gone undrafted if we didn't pick him. He wasn't the clear top kicker, and only one other kicker went in the draft, and it was a guy who wasn't even on the radar.

Every player drafted COULD have gone undrafted if it weren't for the team that took him.

 

[Sciz]

Random fact that might be wrong:
Only 5 guys on the roster right now that the Patriots did not draft (Carter, Ellis, Bodden, Branch, Ochocinco) are making more than $1.5M a year. Only two of those (Bodden, Ochocinco) are under contract past this season. THAT is how you make a championship roster. Pay the guys you draft that earn it, fill holes with mostly cap-friendly free agents and a mid-level splurge here or there. None of this trading for a guy and then paying him $12M a year crap.

(Yes, Branch counts)

 

[Gostkowski for 3]

Since draft picks are hit or miss, you don't really know until several years down the line until they are overrated or underrated. If you had to ask me right now who got the better end of the Seymour deal, I'd say it's the Raiders :/
Since the Bengals got 2 picks for Palmer, who wasn't going to play another game for them regardless, they have double the chance of landing a superstar player and really come out on top regardless.

 

[Sciz]

If you had to ask me right now who got the better end of the Seymour deal, I'd say it's the Raiders :/

Of course. The Raiders have gotten 38 games out of a Pro Bowl defensive tackle. All the Patriots have is 6 games from a developmental left tackle. Let's revisit in two years when Seymour is 34 and a free agent, while Nate Solder still has 3 years left on his rookie deal paying him peanuts to be an elite left tackle.

 

[Gostkowski for 3]

Of course. The Raiders have gotten 38 games out of a Pro Bowl defensive tackle. All the Patriots have is 6 games from a developmental left tackle. Let's revisit in two years when Seymour is 34 and a free agent, while Nate Solder still has 3 years left on his rookie deal paying him peanuts to be an elite left tackle.[/QUOTE]

Can only hope so!

 

[Fencer]

Even when the Patriots won their first Super Bowl with a FA-heavy team, a significant fraction of the best players were guys they'd drafted.

The top 2 offensive players were Brady and Brown in some order.

Law and Milloy may have been the top 2 defensive players. McGinest, rookie Seymour, and not-yet-awesome-Bruschi were there as well.

 

[LetsGoPats36]

You also need a solid handful of guys that can contribute while not being on a huge contracts.

Drafted players that can chip in on rookie contracts are paramount.

 

[Off The Grid]

This has got to be one of the GOOFIEST notions I've ever HEARD of.

Has the OP heard of the SALARY CAP??

Allow me to rephrase...

Has the OP heard of the REDSKINS??? :bricks:

 

[fester]

Of course they matter, but still are overrated. You simply can't hit gold in every pick. We could get a dinasty too trading away the picks for players, that's what I'm saying

No one has ever argued that any NFL team should hit on every pick, but a decent hit rate (40% to 50%) in the first three rounds should build a firm foundation of success. The lack of success in the 2006, 2007 and 2008 drafts have led to a very young Patriots defense as those years should have produced a top tier safety, at least one solid cornerback looking for a nice second contract about now, an edge rusher, and a legit field stretching WR. Do that and all of the sudden, the need to trade for Ochocinco decreases, the need to trade for Burgess decreases, the need to continually draft CBs in the Top-50 decreases etc.

The Patriots have been able to get away with it because they have two guys who are contending for GOAT status (Brady, Belicheck) and a strong core to rely on, but there is an imbalance to the team as the age distribution is dumb-bell shape due to the failures of those three drafts.