Doom! Even the computers hate the Pats!

[Ring 6]

I punched all the relevant data from both teams into MY computer and ran the Joe Kerr Unpredictable program...after 150,000 simulations here--------------> are the results....

THE JETS SUCK

I think I may have picked up a green virus.....

Hey now, don't disrespect, the Jets are still the only team that has won a SB this season.

 

[supafly]

Though this article was interesting, I don't know how futures betting works but apparently a Giants win hurts Vegas according to this story.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/s...es-bet-las-vegas-loses-if-the-giants-win.html

Futures bets simply mean that the casinos/sportsbooks have taken action all season long for NYG SB wins.

It started at 30-1, then went as high as 80-1 when they were on their 4 game losing streak.

It's for people who normally want to bet smaller amts (50/100/250 etc) in Oct or Nov, in hopes that they'll win in the "future"--which is February.

A more worthy note for me was that the high majority of "sharps" or professional big bettors are all taking the Giants...that is not particularly good news, as they are not as easily influenced by the mediots like the average bettor. They know the real deal with games and tendencies. Hope we prove them wrong.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't know about historically but according to the Chicago Tribune, Super Bowl XLVI is attracting more bets on the Giants than on the Pats.

"MGM Resorts International ... said about 65 per cent of the money bet so far in its casinos was for the Giants." Vegas bookmakers' cheering Patriots in Super Bowl - chicagotribune.com

If the Pats don't win, Vegas is gonna take a bath.

You should read the article you link.
It says 80% of the bets are yet to be made. 65% of 20% of the bets being on one side is hardly a situaiton that would cause Vegas to take a bath.
So far thats 13% of the money to 7% of the money, which doesn't even eat up the vig.

 

[supafly]

Not all computers hate the Pats: NFL Projections and Simulations - National Football League - ESPN

I enjoy your enthusiasm, but sadly the week 9 projections are terribly irrelevant at this point. A lot more irrelevant that even the current ones.

Consider the following:

---During week 9, we were coming off of a loss. It is pretty rare for the NEP to lose in back to back weeks

---The NYG were missing a few very key players, that are all healthy now

---And most importantly, the game was being played in Foxborough, where Brady had a 30+ home winning streak. That alone usually factors in about a FG. If you notice the projected final score, the thought of a neutral game alone would have put the Giants as favorites, and changed the projections dramatically.

 

[supafly]

I think that a very good poster pretty much hit it on the head when he reminded us that all of these projections are factoring in the 31st ranked defense.

When you consider the defense's better play of late, that should even the game and the projections out a bit.