I just finished my research for the game and here is what I came up with. First I'll talk about both teams.
KC - Simply put they have the best offense in the NFL going into the playoffs IMO. Losing Hunt didn't change that I think, but it did knock them down a notch. They scored 36.7PPG in the 11 games with him and 32.2PPG without him. Stats aside, it just doesn't look the same going by the eye ball test. Even with that being the case to think this offense can't simply out score you would be a mistake. But not everything is perfect either. While it looks like they are getting Watkins back for this game it is looking more likely Ware will be missing this one or entirely ineffective. Also you need to wonder how good Watkins will look. Overall I think being so thin at RB is not worth a maybe partly effective Watkins. All that being true, they will still score.
The Defensive side of the ball got some bad news for this one. It looks like Eric Berry won't be playing. This bad D isn't going to get the shot in the arm it desperately needs heading into the playoffs. They will again need to depend on their very good pass rushers (Ford, Houston and Jones) to cover for the rest of a fairly bad unit. Nothing else needs to be said about this D.
Indy - The offense has really come to life along with the offensive line. It has now become one of the best in the NFL and is the main reason for the Luck and Indy offensive resurgence (I would put it one notch below KC/NO/LAR). Hilton has again become one of the most feared WRs in the NFL with Luck given time to find him. Ebron has finally started to hit on the potential others have seen in him. Those are the 2 stars of the offense. They have other decent options like Rogers and Mack who has become a decent RB behind that great OL. Hines is a serviceable 3rd down back but that is all. This offense has a tendency to go hot and cold as the last game they played shows. 21 points in the first half and 0 in the 2nd half. While it is true the Titans D is MUCH better than KC they will need to do better this game.
The Defense has been overblown IMO. While decent enough and having improved over the course of the year without a real test it is hard to know what to think. The next best offense they faced since the Patriots was the Texans. They held them to less points each game. Was this a show of their improvement or just seeing the same game plan over and over? The next best offense they faced was the Giants who put up 27 points on them. Not a good sign. I tried looking at their D to spot a way to justify their claim of being above average. It was hard to find it. Darius Leonard of course is a beast but what else? Sheard has had a good year but he is gimpy right now. Moore and Desir are good but nothing special. Recently the Colts have managed to bring pressure and they better hope they can keep it up. Hooker is probably their best DB but no one on that team has a chance to limit Hill much. The one good thing I can say about them is they defend the deep pass well and they will need to this game.
So how do I think the game plays outs?
Indy Offense vs KC defense - KC needs to get pressure on D to stop teams. When they don't the back end gets exposed. They are horrible at stopping the run, in part cause they go so light in the front 7 to get pressure. Indy's OL should be able to keep Luck in good shape. They did very well vs a similarly talented DL last week and I don't see why that would change. When that happens the Colts should be able to score a bunch. I don't think anyone on KC has a chance to keep with Hilton if their pass rush doesn't get home. Indy will also be able to run at will most of the time. But this isn't about how many points Indy can put up. It's about Luck not making dumb mistakes. The points will come, but if he forces a ball or allows a tipped pass for an easy pick that may be all KC needs. That kind of splash play aside, I don't see a way KC holds down Indy.
KC defense vs Indy offense - This is going to look very similar to the way the other side of the ball looks. KC will depend on a solid OL to hold up against a marginal and injured Indy pass rush. It probably will hold up very well when Indy isn't blitzing. Assuming Indy can't get pressure, I don't see a way they can defend for long. They simply have no one who can stay with Hill. Maybe they can do something about Kelce though. If Ware can't play well or at all maybe they can try to use a pretty decent run D to attempt to make KC one dimensional. Though I don't see how that will help if they can't get pressure. Recently they've found success with the blitz and should stick with it. Maybe they get burned but I don't see them holding KC down playing straight up. The only way this isn't the case is if someone on the Colts can take Kelce completely away by himself. IF that happens and IF the KC running game isn't there due to injury and IF Watkins is a shell of himself maybe you can attempt to get some stops without putting Hill 1 on 1. The main weakness of the KC offense right now is how top heavy they are in the pass game. If Ware/Watkins can't go their top receivers are Hill (1479), Kelce (1336) and a HUGE drop off to Conley (334 yards). If you can take Kelce out 1 on 1 somehow then maybe they can afford to double Hill and blitz. If they can do that I could seem them slowing down this O a good amount. That is a lot of IFs though.
My prediction right now is that this is going to be a coin toss. With snow and rain falling and with the history KC has you need to wonder what will happen in this one. Most QBs don't tend to find success in their first playoff run. Will Andy Reid do something conservative at the wrong time? Looking just at the players and match ups I need to give a slight nod to KC to outscore Indy at home. But something about KC has been a little off all year. They seem unable to close the deal vs legit teams the way they should be able to. Besides week 1 and an OT win against the Ravens that could have gone either way they haven't gotten it done. I just wonder if when those big moments come around is something still missing? It may well come down to who has the ball last.
In the end the weather was the last straw for me. I need to pick the better OL and the more experienced QB to get it done. Colts win in what I think will be a messy, weird, high scoring game with some controversial calls and uncharacteristic mistakes for both sides; as well as a gutsy decision for the Colts which works out and a 2nd guess on a conservative Reid call.
Colts 34 KC 31
