Definitely not on the roster

[SS37]

Slater and/or Crable will not make the 53, maybe one gets a "season ending injury" and lands on IR. At least Slater has been able to play and have the ball bounce off his helmet on returns, he'll prob get another year

 

[patsfan55]

The thread title alone called you-know-who to mind.

The first to actually type the name of he-who-absolutely-will-not-make-this-team loses.

Mwahahah, I thought the same thing when I read the title as well

 

[patriotscpfc]

The people trying to cut Slater.

Bill kept him on the roster for 2 weeks last year despite him being injured.

I think he has some value...

 

[signbabybrady]

The people trying to cut Slater.

Bill kept him on the roster for 2 weeks last year despite him being injured.

I think he has some value...

Not to mention he seemed to play with a problem stemming from that injury that could attribute to his tackle numbers going down.

I have been a supporter of Slater and I think his problem for a roster spot is not his own skills but the skills of guys like Arrington, Aiken, McCourty, Tate, and other guys with similar build. I would still think he has a good shot of making it as I would probably put Arrington and Slater at the Top of the STs list but he certainly has more compstition this year. I will say this if he were to get cut here you can bet he gets a high contract for STers to go somewhere else.

 

[Don Kipines]

Don't know if anyone saw this bit in the Herald about roster turnover. The change of seasons - BostonHerald.com

Anyone want to make a guess as to how many new players will be on the team this year? Last year it was 21, a high for a BB team going back to the 2001 Super Bowl year, when there were 29 new guys.

Just doing a rough count, it looks like we'll be under 21, but there will be a lot of turnover. Of the 12 draft picks, only 7 (for sure) and maybe 8 of them look like roster players:

McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price, Hernandez, and Mesko are sure things. Larsen is a high probable, but he has pretty good competition -- he probably is fighting Ohrnberger, Wendell, and Connolly for two spots.

Welch has a tough fight, if only because the Pats normally go into the season with 3 or 4 tackles at best and the team already has Light, Kaczur, Vollmer and LeVoir on the roster, with Levoir and Kaczur recently extended. So he looks like a PS guy too.

I can't see any way that Deaderick and/or Weston makes the roster. Last year the Pats carried 6 DL against the Ravens, and this year there are at least seven that look like locks before you get to the draft picks:

Brace, Pryor, T Warren, G Warren, D Lewis, Wilfork, Wright.

Robinson, meanwhile, is almost certainly a practice-squadder. All of which makes you wonder about the Pats' strategy with the last four picks. If these guys had such a small chance of making the team, why waste draft picks on them? You end up exposing them to the free agency process anyway. Anyway, moving on:

If you add the 7 for-sure draft pick additions to the for-sure free agent acquisitions, you get a list like this:

McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price, Hernandez, and Mesko (DRAFT PICKS)
Crumpler, G Warren, D Lewis, T Holt

There are obviously a few smaller signings that have an outside shot, like Murrell, but that's really the list -- 11 additions since the end of the year.

Add to that the guys who joined the team since the beginning of last year -- Kyle Arrington, Rob Ninkovich and Thomas Williams are the guys with the best shots at making the 53 -- and you're maybe looking at 14-15 new guys.

I'm going to guess that with unexpected injuries and some surprise cuts and trades between now and September, we're probably looking at 18-19 new faces. In other words, not as extreme as last year, but still a lot of turnover.

Seems to me this team's rebuilding process is still ongoing, and the sweet spot for the club will be a year from now, when all the talent from these two drafts matures.

 

[Deus Irae]

....Robinson, meanwhile, is almost certainly a practice-squadder. All of which makes you wonder about the Pats' strategy with the last four picks. If these guys had such a small chance of making the team, why waste draft picks on them? You end up exposing them to the free agency process anyway. ....

Deaderick, Weston and Robinson were compensatory picks, so it's not as if the team could have traded them away.

 

[mgteich]

solid analysis! See bwlow for a comments.

OT
We usually carry four. It is only when one of the four is injured in camp would we consider three. We are set with Light, Vollmer and Kaczur for our Game day roster. Welch has a reasonable shot to beat out LeVoir for the fourth roster spot.

DL
I'm fine with both Warren and Lewis making the team. We did have only six DL's last year, but that wasn't enough. I think that we will keep seven this year. I expect that the W's will get almost all the reps: Wright/Warren, Wilfork and Warren.

I agree that Brace, Lewis and Pryor are currently the most likely for backup roster spots.

I think that you underestimate Deaderick. He is a true 3-4 DE, a position we need bady to develop. I would not be shocked or upset if he beats out one of the backups for a roster spot. After all, all three of the backups are DT's. It would be good to have a backup DE.
To put it another way, I think that if we are going to add a 7th DL this year, I would prefer a DE, rather than yet another DT.

MOST LIKELY
You have Thomas Williams as most likely player to make the roster. This is the first time that I have seen him rated so highly. While I don't expect him to make the 53, I think that you are correct to add him to the mix for the 7th, 8th or 9th linebacker positions.

We all expect to see Mayo, Guyton, Spikes, McKenzie, Banta-Cain, Woods and Cunningham on the 53 man squad. That's a core of seven lacking an OLB or two.

That leaves several players competing for the last 1-3 roster spots. In addition to Williams, we have Ninkovich, Crable, Murrell and Alexander.

Don't know if anyone saw this bit in the Herald about roster turnover. The change of seasons - BostonHerald.com

Anyone want to make a guess as to how many new players will be on the team this year? Last year it was 21, a high for a BB team going back to the 2001 Super Bowl year, when there were 29 new guys.

Just doing a rough count, it looks like we'll be under 21, but there will be a lot of turnover. Of the 12 draft picks, only 7 (for sure) and maybe 8 of them look like roster players:

McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price, Hernandez, and Mesko are sure things. Larsen is a high probable, but he has pretty good competition -- he probably is fighting Ohrnberger, Wendell, and Connolly for two spots.

Welch has a tough fight, if only because the Pats normally go into the season with 3 or 4 tackles at best and the team already has Light, Kaczur, Vollmer and LeVoir on the roster, with Levoir and Kaczur recently extended. So he looks like a PS guy too.

I can't see any way that Deaderick and/or Weston makes the roster. Last year the Pats carried 6 DL against the Ravens, and this year there are at least seven that look like locks before you get to the draft picks:

Brace, Pryor, T Warren, G Warren, D Lewis, Wilfork, Wright.

Robinson, meanwhile, is almost certainly a practice-squadder. All of which makes you wonder about the Pats' strategy with the last four picks. If these guys had such a small chance of making the team, why waste draft picks on them? You end up exposing them to the free agency process anyway. Anyway, moving on:

If you add the 7 for-sure draft pick additions to the for-sure free agent acquisitions, you get a list like this:

McCourty, Gronkowski, Cunningham, Spikes, Price, Hernandez, and Mesko (DRAFT PICKS)
Crumpler, G Warren, D Lewis, T Holt

There are obviously a few smaller signings that have an outside shot, like Murrell, but that's really the list -- 11 additions since the end of the year.

Add to that the guys who joined the team since the beginning of last year -- Kyle Arrington, Rob Ninkovich and Thomas Williams are the guys with the best shots at making the 53 -- and you're maybe looking at 14-15 new guys.

I'm going to guess that with unexpected injuries and some surprise cuts and trades between now and September, we're probably looking at 18-19 new faces. In other words, not as extreme as last year, but still a lot of turnover.

Seems to me this team's rebuilding process is still ongoing, and the sweet spot for the club will be a year from now, when all the talent from these two drafts matures.

 

[Don Kipines]

Deaderick, Weston and Robinson were compensatory picks, so it's not as if the team could have traded them away.

Well, right. And on second thought, RDE is a big need. While it's doubtful Deaderick and Weston will unseat any of the vets, I suppose it's worth taking a flier on a couple of them. I just keep coming back to the lack of RBs in the draft class -- they should have taken at least one, I think.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

I can't see any way that Deaderick and/or Weston makes the roster. Last year the Pats carried 6 DL against the Ravens, and this year there are at least seven that look like locks before you get to the draft picks:

Brace, Pryor, T Warren, G Warren, D Lewis, Wilfork, Wright.

Robinson, meanwhile, is almost certainly a practice-squadder. All of which makes you wonder about the Pats' strategy with the last four picks. If these guys had such a small chance of making the team, why waste draft picks on them? You end up exposing them to the free agency process anyway. Anyway, moving on:

Last season the initial 53 had seven DL including Seymour. I would not say that these seven look like locks either. Every year there is competition between veteran FAs and rookies. Vets have lost those battles before. Guys like Gerard and Damione have lost in the past. To me anyway, Brandon Deaderick was custom built to play for Bill Belichick.

 

[Spiral]

I think if Light is healthy and LeVoir shows improvement, then the three game-day tackles are Light, Vollmer and LeVoir. Kaczur becomes trade bait for a late-round pick.

 

[mgteich]

I'm not sure of your point. The 5th, 6th and 7th round is always the place where you are taking "fliers". Other than special teamers and backup quarterbacks, these picks usually are longshots to make the team. Of course, it is "worth taking a flier"! Isn't that the point of having picks? They certainly don't cost much if they don't make the team and save money if they do make the team.

Last year, we did great with Ingam, Edelman and Pryor with these rounds.

This year we chose Mesko in the 5th, Larsen (C) in the 6th and then used our two tradeable sevenths to trade up to get Welch (OT). All have reasonable shots to make the 53. Larsen and Welch over Connolly and LeVoir is certainly not out of the question.

Certainly, there will be competition for these developmental/inactive roster positions, espcially in the interior line. I would note that we also have Wendell and Bussey competing for Connolly's spot. The team seems to like Ohrnberger and seem likely to invest another year of development, even if he isn't ready for prime time. So, we ahve four interior rosters spots in Mankins, Neal, Koppen and Ohrnberger. We need a 5th player.

As far as the last three (non-tradeable) 7ths. These were opportunities to lock up three players before they becaome UDFA's. As with the UDFA's, one would think that they are all long long shots to make the roster and are competing for a Practice Squad position (which is a fine use of a late pick). However, Deaderick is a fine DE. With Warren on one side and Wright/Warren on the other, we could use a developmental DE as one of our backups instread of having three DT's in Brace, Pryor and Lewis. Personally, I'd rather have a developmental DE as my 7th DL in place of any of these three. We had six DL's on the roster last year. A developmental 7th seems reasonable.

Well, right. And on second thought, RDE is a big need. While it's doubtful Deaderick and Weston will unseat any of the vets, I suppose it's worth taking a flier on a couple of them. I just keep coming back to the lack of RBs in the draft class -- they should have taken at least one, I think.