Defer or Receive?

[pwes]

Defer it has been working so far. If they are going to keep coming out sluggish like they have been for several weeks then I would rather not waste a posession in the first quarter when they could get it back after the half while firing on all cylinders

 

[PatsDeb]

Yeah, Pats always defer when they win the toss. I'm just curious: Have they won every toss this year? Or close to it? (Edit: Not that it's a significant stat.Just a curiosity. I'd imagine other teams take the ball when they win the toss, wanting to capitalize against this D. SO maybe that's another question: If you play the Pats ... do you defer now, considering how slow the NE O has been starting?)

No, they haven't won every time. They did win it on Sunday, however (I can only remember back one game, LOL). But, I do remember at least once this season when our opponent won the toss and elected to receive (I believe it was the Jets). I remember being surprised they didn't engage in gamesmanship. Remember, however, a lot of teams think the correct way to play the Pats is to take the ball first and keep Brady off the field for as long as possible. I can't believe they don't know that plays right into BB's hands.

 

[Rob0729]

That would be glorious, but it's not quite correct. On their current winning streak, in which they've outscored opponents 291-158, they've gone 101-7 in the third quarter.

My bad. I knew it was either 100 or 200 and I went with the homer guess. Even at 101-7, that is a staggering impressive number. Granted I would hate to see what the first quarter number looks like.

 

[NSPF]

It's not really about the chance for a "double score," and it doesn't play into the team's strengths in some mystical way, it's simply that as a game goes on each possession becomes more valuable. This is partially because it becomes increasingly clear how the rest of the game needs to shape out in order for the team to win. It works out in every situation.

If you're down big at the half, then you know that you need to score and score quickly. If you're up big at the half, you're going to want to play ball control and take up the clock. If it's a close game, then you're going to try and score by whatever means you can.

The offenses control the tempo, and as the game wears on, you know what tempo you need to play at. Therefore, the closer your possessions are to the end of the game, the better. It's the same as being the home team in baseball.

 

[Uncle Rico]

No, they haven't won every time. They did win it on Sunday, however (I can only remember back one game, LOL). But, I do remember at least once this season when our opponent won the toss and elected to receive (I believe it was the Jets). I remember being surprised they didn't engage in gamesmanship. Remember, however, a lot of teams think the correct way to play the Pats is to take the ball first and keep Brady off the field for as long as possible. I can't believe they don't know that plays right into BB's hands.

Based on ctpatsfan77's chart on Post 17, looks like other teams have also taken the ball first. With the offense starting slowly lately, maybe some playoff team will win the toss and give NE the ball to start. Risky move that analysts would question, but I'd have to think about it if I'm Denver/Cinci/Pitt.

 

[Kid~Brady]

Funny. I go and check Boston ESPN.com and I find this:

In 15 of the Patriots' 16 regular-season games this season, the team has opened the game on defense. Could that be one of the reasons for the Patriots' slow starts?

This is a topic that has been percolating in some corners, the idea that perhaps Bill Belichick should elect to take the ball when winning the opening coin toss instead of kicking off.

link: New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Let's look at a little closer at some of the statistics and viewpoints on this issue:

1. Coin flip results. The Patriots won seven coin flips this season. All seven times, they deferred the choice to the second half, which meant they were kicking off to open the game. Of the nine opponents that won the coin toss against the Patriots this season, eight elected to receive the opening kickoff. Buffalo, in Week 3, was the only team on the schedule that won the toss and elected to kick off to the Patriots.

2. Why Belichick prefers to defer. When asked in the past, Belichick explained that it's his preference to receive the opening kickoff of the second half because of the chance for an extra possession. Also, it sets up "situational football" at the end of the second quarter where the Patriots could score a late touchdown, and then get the ball back at the start of the third quarter with the chance for a double score. That type of swing in a game can be decisive. Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians noted earlier this year that teams achieving that "double score" win about 90 percent of their games.

3. The case for taking the ball. Those who prefer to receive the opening kickoff often cite the idea of setting the tone by getting ahead early. This is usually the mindset of an offensive coach. Of the eight games this season in which Patriots opponents won the toss and elected to receive, all head coaches had their primary background on offense (Mike Shanahan, Jim Caldwell, Andy Reid, Todd Haley, Tom Coughlin Norv Turner, Tony Sparano twice). The one game the Patriots received the opening kickoff -- against the Bills in Week 3 -- they scored a touchdown on their opening drive. Yet the flip side of this for the team is that it puts a lot of stock in the opening drive and the offense hasn't looked sharp in those situations of late.

4. Weather conditions a factor. Since the NFL recently instituted the option for teams to defer the choice when winning the opening coin toss, Bill Belichick has been a consistent "defer" guy. Once asked what might change his mindset, he said if weather conditions were extreme -- or there was information that indicated severe weather could be coming during the game -- that would be a consideration.

YOUR TURN: How much do you think the Patriots' preference to defer the opening toss has to do with their slow starts? Would you like to see Bill Belichick alter his philosophy? Share your thoughts in the comments section of this blog entry.

 

[NEP4Life]

Someone (presumably Reiss) asked BB about this question in today's presser.

Quick hits from Bill Belichick - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Talk of deferring the opening toss. Belichick was asked about the Patriots deferring the opening toss consistently. "I think obviously if you take the ball at the beginning of the game, you have a chance to get one more possession in the first half. If you take the ball at the beginning of the second half, you have a chance to get one more possession in the second half. Either way, if you get it this half, they get it that half. It’s not like you’re actually stealing something from somebody, it’s just a question of if you win the toss and even have a preference then what’s your preference? ... I don’t think it’s that big of a deal."

I know he likes to obfuscate, but to be disingenuous to the point where he downplays one of his most consistent -- and presumably carefully considered -- tendencies is borderline irksome.

Added: I guess BB's answer is better then nothing. He could have said, "We do what gives us the best chance to win each week."

 

[deroc5050]

I am on the Defer mindset because mainly.. the offense has been getting off to slow starts anyway. So if you receive and go 3 and out you basically just put yourself at a major disadvantage. And the first couple of possessions in the NFL are unpredictable as they play out there first possessions.

This team has been a great 2nd half team statistically. I would much rather be a great 2nd half team than a 1st half team like we had in recent years.

 

[patchick]

FWIW: Since the 2008 rule change, about 56% of teams that deferred have won the game. The percentage has been steadily rising, because the smartest, most successful coaches have been moving toward deferring as their default. This year all four teams with first-round playoff byes deferred all or the vast majority of their chances.

 

[AnwmdN27]

It's not really about the chance for a "double score," and it doesn't play into the team's strengths in some mystical way, it's simply that as a game goes on each possession becomes more valuable. This is partially because it becomes increasingly clear how the rest of the game needs to shape out in order for the team to win. It works out in every situation.

If you're down big at the half, then you know that you need to score and score quickly. If you're up big at the half, you're going to want to play ball control and take up the clock. If it's a close game, then you're going to try and score by whatever means you can.

The offenses control the tempo, and as the game wears on, you know what tempo you need to play at. Therefore, the closer your possessions are to the end of the game, the better. It's the same as being the home team in baseball.

Well it can be both the double score and your reasoning.

I agree with your line of thinking (deroc's too) that an extra possession in the 2nd half is a lot more valuable than one in the 1st half. Our special teams unit is pretty stout with the likes of Antwaun Molden, so we're not really putting ourselves at risk, just keep doing what works.

 

[supafly]

Whether or not they receive first or not probably doesn't change the fact that they have continued to struggle in their first few possessions no matter what.

I just don't see how receiving could make that much of a difference for a team that went through the first few possessions with very little points lately.

 

[WhiZa]

In general, I would say defer each time so you can control the second half. But if you have a team that is better running than passing you may want to get the ball first and hopefully score to put the pressure on them to pass the ball.

 

[Steve102]

I would have guessed this would be much closer. Based on the strength of this team, I would want my offense on the field first, and make the other team come from behind. If the strength of the team was on defense, then I would want to defer and let my defense set the tone.

I am sure BB and his staff has tons of stats we have never heard of regarding this topic. I don't think he takes much to chance re: game management and X's and O's.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

anyone jumping over to my side yet...we can be lethal when we get the ball first and set the tone of the game...