I worked on this based on a comment I read on reddit (and addressed there in less detail), which apparently came from some utterance during a MNF broadcast about how the Patriots have feasted on the AFC East, paving the way for their success. Like the cheating accusation or the "luck" insinuation, this is another attempt to try and minimize the Pats success. Or at least, that's what I initially thought. But then, unlike trying to analyze luck, or beating on the dead horse of the assorted "gates" thrown our way, I knew I could analyze these numbers.
Bottom line: The AFC East is the best division in football since 2002. The Patriots "feast on the AFC East" less than other top teams feast on their own divisions.
For more detail, read on:
First, does the AFC East suck? This was easy to figure out, even if time consuming. I pulled the records of each team from every season dating back to the 2002 realignment and subtracted their division record to get their record outside the division.
Winning percentages by division against teams outside the division:
- AFC East: 0.545
- NFC East: 0.523
- NFC South: 0.519
- AFC North: 0.505
- AFC West: 0.498
- NFC North: 0.488
- AFC South: 0.480
- NFC West: 0.447
There is a pretty clear winner here with the AFC East holding a relatively comfortable 0.022 lead over the NFC East. The surprising bit is how strong the NFC South appears. It's not an illusion. More to come.
To further address the issue, I decided to see which teams had the best records outside the division:
- New England: 0.769
- Pittsburgh: 0.616 (not even close)
- Indianapolis: 0.594
- Denver: 0.581
- Green Bay: 0.575
As I noted, the gap between New England and Pittsburgh in this regard is staggering. The numbers speak for themselves. It certainly seems the Pats don't need to feast on the division to separate themselves. The question then becomes, do they happen to feast on the division anyway?
I addressed this by seeing what percentage of total wins came from the division among the top 5 teams since 2002:
- Indianapolis: 42.1%
- Green Bay: 41.4%
- Pittsburgh: 41.0%
- Denver: 38.0%
- New England: 37.9%
Indianapolis and Green Bay in particular abuse their divisions. Given that they are two of the weakest divisions in football, it's not too surprising that both the Colts and Packers historically beat up and feasted on their own divisions. Not only do that Pats win a lower percentage of games within the division among top teams since 2002, they are actually also behind the 49ers (42.5%?!?!), Seahawks (40.4%), Ravens (38.2%), Chiefs (38.0%), Eagles (38.0%), and Panthers (38.0%).
Side note: The Falcons have the highest extra-division winning percentage (0.566) in the NFC South but are 28th since 2002 in winning against their own division. The Saints have the second highest percentage (0.550) and are 19th. That, combined with having the third highest win percentage against the NFL speaks to how tough the NFC South actually is.
MYTH DEBUNKED