The ever hawkish Florio is hedging his bets a little this AM regarding decertification.
Agree with all his points, but not his conclusion. The players don't have the "holy grail" (free agency) to go after in litigation. So they have to:
a) Demonstrate the league violates anti-trust laws. No problem, been done before.
b) Show they have been damaged by these violations. Little more dicey here, but assume they can pull it off.
c) Ask for a remedy. This is the area where the strategy falls apart. I have no doubt that the players can win the lawsuit, but what will be the result? It should be perfectly clear that the whole dispute is over money. I don't believe there is anything the court can do to compel the owners to spend more on players.
They can rule items like the draft and salary cap as illegal, but I'm not sure this gives players leverage for the next CBA. Lack of a salary cap resulted in modest salary increases in 2010, but also introduced the potential for a salary drop at any time (could be significant for some struggling teams).
Losing the draft isn't going to result in an increase in salaries. They just become part of a larger FA pool. While there wouldn't be a cap, teams would still be operating out of 32 individual budgets. They would be hesitant to pay rookie FAs significantly more than their drafted counterparts...and the guys at the top will get significantly less.
The only other things that could be (and likely would be) ruled illegal are the league deals for TV, radio, marketing. This would be a disaster for the league and the players since the resulting 32 individual contracts would be a fraction of what the league gets today. Add in the contraction of teams that can't demand big money deals and the money available to players is greatly reduced.
That being said, the NFLPA leadership pretty much has to look to the courts. They can't win a lockout situation and they don't want to be the ones holding the wheel when the ship goes down. And if they don't file today, they lose their best legal ally in Doty. The players are stuck in autopilot on the road to hell...and the owners know it.
While the litigation is pending, the owners will devote whatever league-wide percentage of revenue to salaries that they deem appropriate. Once the litigation ends, the owners (as a league or as 32 entities) will continue to do that. All the players can do is pitch a fit and threaten to use the court rulings to blow up the ship. That threat loses its punch when the players are still standing on the deck.
The only "offer" the NFLPA had in hand was 50% of total revenue...which is pretty much the same deal the owners opted out of (58% of $8B = 50% of $9.3B). They should have negotiated to split the difference and get what the could. Now they get the owners' rules for a few years and then no new leverage once the litigation completes. Good luck with that.