Connor Barwin 3 years later

[Snake Eyes]

What? An NFL franchise drafted a player and it turned out that somebody drafted later turned out to be a better player?

This isn't just someone, this was a board-wide superbinkie. Not the same at all.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I remember, new england fans were screaming for us to draft connor barwin in the 2nd round in 2009. We ended up taking Darius Butler and Ron Brace instead :bricks: Connor Barwin recorded 12 sacks last year, guy is a stud. I gotta give you guys credit, you were right about this guy.

Glad Belichick stepped up and got Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower this year. I smell another superbowl coming for us!

If Bequette improves his tackling and spends his red shirt year working hard on technique, he has the raw ability to be just as good as Barwin by year three. He got 10 sacks last year while playing injured in the SEC.

 

[DW Toys]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...will-you-most-bummed-see-come-off-board.html

See posts #13, 30, 33 and 34 in that thread. Brandon Graham and Sergio Kindle were also board favorites that year.

See also:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...tsfans-com-draft-contest-name-your-12-a.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/334067-sergio-kindle.html
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...raft-will-satisfy-you-page3.html#post1793775

There were plenty of folks that liked Jerry Hughes in 2010.

As we all know, the NFL Draft is a crap shoot. With the advent of major media breakthroughs, the public is allowed to see clips, read background information even review former games of said players. Point being, to the embarrassment of many a NFL Team , the fans can pretty much create a better Draft. I will hear none of the well they have been in the business blah many years etc...Horse feces I say. After Draft day everyone of the Teams look better. Even those whom did a mediocre job. Fact is I will match some fans Drafts to some NFL Teams' Drafts and the fans will win in many cases. Some Teams use a dart board it would seem.

The only difference between the intelligent NFL fan and some NFL Scouts in the Draft is the Scout is privy to actual contact with the player, coach, fellow players, family et,al. and medical reports that are some times well guarded. Those items sometimes influence the Scout one way or the other as far as bias. The Scout convinces the GM and Coaching staff to consider said player. There will definitely be a percentage of intelligent NFL fans that will Draft actually better because some of that inside information was over emphasized in the evaluation or under emphasized. Sometimes the Team can get too close to the player or a specific trait AND not consider the real value. It's called not seeing the forest through the trees. It's too imprecise to say the science is more than as I have said, a 17% chance in a three year period of time, that said player is a long term starter or high performing player in the NFL. The others are JAGS or cut. 17% actually sucks lemons.

Although Barwin was not my binkie, intelligent posters got it right and a multimillion dollar Pats Draft Team failed if we are honest.
Kindle and Graham I believe both had injuries that were hid prior to the Draft. Makes a difference but all things being equal, there is no question a smart fan base can do better than 17%.

If an Owner read this he would not be happy but the internet and per that second media have turned the Draft into a study that the average fan can make equal if not better choices.

Barwin is an example.
DW Toys

 

[mayoclinic]

If Bequette improves his tackling and spends his red shirt year working hard on technique, he has the raw ability to be just as good as Barwin by year three. He got 10 sacks last year while playing injured in the SEC.

I was one of the biggest Barwin homers on this board 3 years ago. On the one hand, I haven't seen anyone with Barwin's rare combination of explosiveness and fluidity in space in the past decade, as reflected in his measurables (40 1/2" vertical, 10'8" broad jump, 1.53 10 yard split, 6.87 3-cone). That was what was so unique about him, and combined with his size (6'3 5/8" 256# coming out of college) and intangibles it made him an almost perfect 3-4 WOLB candidate for the Pats. Which was why it was so frustrating when they passes on him not once but 5 times (23, 26, 34, 40 and 41).

I don't think Jake Bequette has quite that degree of explosiveness or fluidity in space. OTOH, he may be better suited to the way the current defense appears to be evolving than Barwin would be - Bequette has better length and more bulk than Barwin, combined with excellent fluidity for his size. That combination makes him perhaps better suited for a hybrid defense that requires something closer to a 4-3 DEs who can stand up and play in space than 3-4 OLB who can put his hand down on 3rd down. And Bequette certainly has the toughness, motor and intangibles. There are many different paths to greatness, and I agree with you that this kid could be excellent in 3 years.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

yes....because a 2nd rounder is much more prudently used on a really fat guy who can't play as an insurance policy. even though you already did not have a decent OLB to speak of....

I thin kthe reality was that the pats FO just didn't think he could play even though he showed the kind of versatility the pats admire

To be honest, I have no idea why it took so long, but I have every reason to believe something has changed their minds in the last year or so. Perhaps they just have to fall in love with a player, and because of the Irvin pick, Jones fell to us.

 

[IllegalContact]

To be honest, I have no idea why it took so long, but I have every reason to believe something has changed their minds in the last year or so. Perhaps they just have to fall in love with a player, and because of the Irvin pick, Jones fell to us.

don't get me wrong....I absolutely love the thinking this year.....FINALLY!!!!

better late than never, I guess, but it appeared that this team made intentional moves to go away from conventional thinking and need.

I just struggle with the need at the moment and the picks in hand along with the apparent fit that barwin was.....between the versatility of playing several positions along with the effectiveness shown at DE/OLB in such a shor ttime, it was such a no brainer and such a disappointment that this guy did not wind up in a pats uniform and that butler and brace did.......I just don't get it

I understand the random nature of success and the draft.....is just how damned obvious this pick was.....it is as though it was too obvious for the FO so they made a point not to make it

even this year....if the tavon wilson pick fails, the rump swabbers around here will once again sit there and revel in the success of some other pick and simply say "you can't get every pick".....certainly not when you are picking day 3 guys in day 2....there were a ton of trench guys available in the next 10 picks (adams,konz,osemele,still,reyes,worthy) that made so much more sense.......

 

[mayoclinic]

To be honest, I have no idea why it took so long, but I have every reason to believe something has changed their minds in the last year or so. Perhaps they just have to fall in love with a player, and because of the Irvin pick, Jones fell to us.

I think that one big difference was that in the past guys like Barwin were considered "conversion projects" - guys who had to learn a new position. Barwin had never played 3-4 OLB, and had only 1 year experience at DE. We've seen that the conversion process can take years even for good players (Mike Vrabel), and is hard to predict. Right or wrong, BB may have been reluctant to invest a high pick with that kind of risk and length to impact.

As the Pats move away from a 2-gap 3-4 to more of a hyrbid defense, there is less conversion involved with guys like Jones and Bequette. They will be initially used in their familiar roles as 4-3 DEs, with their responsibilities gradually increased. Again, I'm not defending it, but it may explain why BB is more comfortable taking a guy like Jones than he was someone like Barwin 3 years ago.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

don't get me wrong....I absolutely love the thinking this year.....FINALLY!!!!

better late than never, I guess, but it appeared that this team made intentional moves to go away from conventional thinking and need.

I just struggle with the need at the moment and the picks in hand along with the apparent fit that barwin was.....between the versatility of playing several positions along with the effectiveness shown at DE/OLB in such a shor ttime, it was such a no brainer and such a disappointment that this guy did not wind up in a pats uniform and that butler and brace did.......I just don't get it

I understand the random nature of success and the draft.....is just how damned obvious this pick was.....it is as though it was too obvious for the FO so they made a point not to make it

even this year....if the tavon wilson pick fails, the rump swabbers around here will once again sit there and revel in the success of some other pick and simply say "you can't get every pick".....certainly not when you are picking day 3 guys in day 2....there were a ton of trench guys available in the next 10 picks (adams,konz,osemele,still,reyes,worthy) that made so much more sense.......

I actually met one of his Cincy teammates early last year. . . . he said that THEY thought he would be a Patriot, too.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I remember, new england fans were screaming for us to draft connor barwin in the 2nd round in 2009. We ended up taking Darius Butler and Ron Brace instead :bricks: Connor Barwin recorded 12 sacks last year, guy is a stud. I gotta give you guys credit, you were right about this guy.

Glad Belichick stepped up and got Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower this year. I smell another superbowl coming for us!

Don't worry though; BB screwed up the second round again this year. A panic pick of a safety ("Oh no we have no late picks to use on Wilson later in the draft--panic--let's take him now") and a panic trade down ("Oh no we don't have any more picks. Panic. Gotta trade down no matter the value...").

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think that one big difference was that in the past guys like Barwin were considered "conversion projects" - guys who had to learn a new position. Barwin had never played 3-4 OLB, and had only 1 year experience at DE. We've seen that the conversion process can take years even for good players (Mike Vrabel), and is hard to predict. Right or wrong, BB may have been reluctant to invest a high pick with that kind of risk and length to impact.

As the Pats move away from a 2-gap 3-4 to more of a hyrbid defense, there is less conversion involved with guys like Jones and Bequette. They will be initially used in their familiar roles as 4-3 DEs, with their responsibilities gradually increased. Again, I'm not defending it, but it may explain why BB is more comfortable taking a guy like Jones than he was someone like Barwin 3 years ago.

It is really interesting to plot how the NFL has and is changing over the past decade and how BB is responding to that change.

This new hybrid defense may be his biggest accomplishment or his worst failure,because BB may be hybirding, but the roles of certain players are clearly one dimensional, that being the OLB and DE positions.

I would be shocked in our third down defense does not improve into the top 20 next season, barring injuries.

However unless I see otherwise in TC I am still worried about the red zone defense.

 

[rookBoston]

I was on the Barwin bandwagon, myself. But even then, we all recognized that he was a project and no sure thing. But he fit a core need with rare measurables and had some explosive game tape. In some ways, he reminds me now of Bruce Irvin-- a crazy high energy one-gap pass rusher. Seems clear that BB was not interested. I still don't know why. Maybe Barwin is an *******. Maybe it was a scheme thing. Some day, his biographer should ask the question, in a candid moment.

Anyway, Barwin was that year's Shae McClellin, who we all have to admit may or may not be great. In past years, Bobby Carpenter played the super-binkie role, too... no one seems to care that Bobby's on the roster now after disappointing years in Dallas and Detroit. And Vernon Gholston, who we're all so pleased turned into a mega-bust for the Jets, was a fan favorite on this board before he started racing up draft boards. It's not like we have a crystal ball either.

One thing all the Tavon Wilson haters have to own to: if he turns out to be as good as Ron Zook says he is, and that BB clearly believes too... you all need to own up to being so damn self-righteous about BB blowing the 2nd round. (After finding Vollmer, Chung, Spikes and Gronkowski, you'd think he'd have earned some respect.) Anyway, looking at the balance of the roster, there's a good chance Wilson will start as a rookie, so we may have a pretty early read on his game play.

 

[mayoclinic]

I was on the Barwin bandwagon, myself. But even then, we all recognized that he was a project and no sure thing. But he fit a core need with rare measurables and had some explosive game tape. In some ways, he reminds me now of Bruce Irvin-- a crazy high energy one-gap pass rusher. Seems clear that BB was not interested. I still don't know why. Maybe Barwin is an *******. Maybe it was a scheme thing. Some day, his biographer should ask the question, in a candid moment.

Anyway, Barwin was that year's Shae McClellin, who we all have to admit may or may not be great. In past years, Bobby Carpenter played the super-binkie role, too... no one seems to care that Bobby's on the roster now after disappointing years in Dallas and Detroit. And Vernon Gholston, who we're all so pleased turned into a mega-bust for the Jets, was a fan favorite on this board before he started racing up draft boards. It's not like we have a crystal ball either.

One thing all the Tavon Wilson haters have to own to: if he turns out to be as good as Ron Zook says he is, and that BB clearly believes too... you all need to own up to being so damn self-righteous about BB blowing the 2nd round. (After finding Vollmer, Chung, Spikes and Gronkowski, you'd think he'd have earned some respect.) Anyway, looking at the balance of the roster, there's a good chance Wilson will start as a rookie, so we may have a pretty early read on his game play.

I wouldn't equate Barwin with Irvin, McClellin or Carpenter in any way. He was a unique prospect due to his athleticism - a unique combination of explosiveness and fluidity - his experience playing in space as a TE, his limited time on defense, his size, his versatility, and his intangibles. McClellin comes closest, but he doesn't have nearly the same kind of explosiveness that Barwin has, and I think his ceiling is much lower. But that unique combination of attributes is what Barwin such a "super binky" 3 years ago.

Personally, I give BB the benefit of the doubt on most prospects until proven otherwise. I was disappointed about Butler and Brace over Barwin in 2009, and neither has proven to be worth the pick they were taken with while Barwin has developed into an impact 3-4 DE for Houston. I was disappointed over Tavon Wilson over Lavonte David at #48, and only time will tell. But for me at least, BB gets the benefit of the doubt for now. Hopefully Wilson will turn out to be a Vollmer tye of pick on defense.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

But that unique combination of attributes is what Barwin such a "super binky" 3 years ago.

You forgot his physical resemblance to Mike Vrabel.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Personally, I give BB the benefit of the doubt on most prospects until proven otherwise. I was disappointed about Butler and Brace over Barwin in 2009, and neither has proven to be worth the pick they were taken with while Barwin has developed into an impact 3-4 DE for Houston. I was disappointed over Tavon Wilson over Lavonte David at #48, and only time will tell. But for me at least, BB gets the benefit of the doubt for now. Hopefully Wilson will turn out to be a Vollmer tye of pick on defense.

Sorry; I cannot give BB the benefit of the doubt because of his poor track record in the second and third rounds. Until proven otherwise I consider this year's second round another screw up; a panic-pick uber-reach for a safety and bad (value-wise) trade down. BB redeemed himself with what he did with those extra picks but it sure looks like a panic pick for a need.

I sure hope I am wrong about Wilson; there must be more to the Wilson story than we know right now...or at least I hope so.

 

[captain stone]

It is really interesting to plot how the NFL has and is changing over the past decade and how BB is responding to that change.

This new hybrid defense may be his biggest accomplishment or his worst failure,because BB may be hybirding, but the roles of certain players are clearly one dimensional, that being the OLB and DE positions.

I would be shocked in our third down defense does not improve into the top 20 next season, barring injuries.

However unless I see otherwise in TC I am still worried about the red zone defense.

If the 3rd-down defense improves into the 16-24 range, then what part of the RZ defense
would have you less optimistic?

 

[captain stone]

I was on the Barwin bandwagon, myself. But even then, we all recognized that he was a project and no sure thing. But he fit a core need with rare measurables and had some explosive game tape. In some ways, he reminds me now of Bruce Irvin-- a crazy high energy one-gap pass rusher. Seems clear that BB was not interested. I still don't know why. Maybe Barwin is an *******. Maybe it was a scheme thing. Some day, his biographer should ask the question, in a candid moment.

Anyway, Barwin was that year's Shae McClellin, who we all have to admit may or may not be great. In past years, Bobby Carpenter played the super-binkie role, too... no one seems to care that Bobby's on the roster now after disappointing years in Dallas and Detroit. And Vernon Gholston, who we're all so pleased turned into a mega-bust for the Jets, was a fan favorite on this board before he started racing up draft boards. It's not like we have a crystal ball either.

One thing all the Tavon Wilson haters have to own to: if he turns out to be as good as Ron Zook says he is, and that BB clearly believes too... you all need to own up to being so damn self-righteous about BB blowing the 2nd round. (After finding Vollmer, Chung, Spikes and Gronkowski, you'd think he'd have earned some respect.) Anyway, looking at the balance of the roster, there's a good chance Wilson will start as a rookie, so we may have a pretty early read on his game play.

Unlike Barwin, all of Irvin, McClellin, Carpenter & Gholston were top-20 picks. Barwin was available
with the 40th and 41st pick, so the risk of diminished draft value inherent in the 4-3 to 3-4 conversion
would have been somewhat mitigated.

And if Tavon F. Wilson somehow comes even close to justifying his status as a top-50 pick
(such as starting as a rookie, which might speak more of Steve Gregory than of Wilson), then
I'll be here as always to eat my crow; and gladly, too, if he contributes to the making of this defense
into a top-16 unit on 3rd downs & passing yards allowed.

 

[ZoisKing]

If the 3rd-down defense improves into the 16-24 range, then what part of the RZ defense
would have you less optimistic?

Hmmm...I thought the whole idea behind our bend but don't break defense was our success in the red zone?

Here's an article to support that idea:

Red zone defining Patriots defense - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Here's another:

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

Our defense was horrific for the most part, but I don't think the red zone would be the area to lay blame.

 

[IllegalContact]

Hmmm...I thought the whole idea behind our bend but don't break defense was our success in the red zone?

Here's an article to support that idea:

Red zone defining Patriots defense - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Here's another:

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

Our defense was horrific for the most part, but I don't think the red zone would be the area to lay blame.

except that if you take into consideration that the pats defense allowed opponent into the redzone more than most would give you the fact that only 4 teams allowed more red zone TD's

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scores per Game (TDs only) on TeamRankings.com
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game on TeamRankings.com

so if you're letting opponents into the red zone more than almost all other teams, the percentage portion of the data is not as important

and by most accounts, the 2011 defense was substantially worse than the 2010

 

[IllegalContact]

barwin is a 3-4 OLB

I wouldn't equate Barwin with Irvin, McClellin or Carpenter in any way. He was a unique prospect due to his athleticism - a unique combination of explosiveness and fluidity - his experience playing in space as a TE, his limited time on defense, his size, his versatility, and his intangibles. McClellin comes closest, but he doesn't have nearly the same kind of explosiveness that Barwin has, and I think his ceiling is much lower. But that unique combination of attributes is what Barwin such a "super binky" 3 years ago.

Personally, I give BB the benefit of the doubt on most prospects until proven otherwise. I was disappointed about Butler and Brace over Barwin in 2009, and neither has proven to be worth the pick they were taken with while Barwin has developed into an impact 3-4 DE for Houston. I was disappointed over Tavon Wilson over Lavonte David at #48, and only time will tell. But for me at least, BB gets the benefit of the doubt for now. Hopefully Wilson will turn out to be a Vollmer tye of pick on defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

barwin is a 3-4 OLB

Typo. Thanks for the correction.