Just finished the USF vs. WVU game. WVU didn't impress me. Even Devine looked lackluster tonight.
I wanted a chance to watch Jason Pierre-Paul, who's been generating considerable hype lately. After watching the game, I sincerely hope he stays in school for another year. He has good strength, speed, length, and burst, but too often I saw him absolutely abuse the tackle, and then lose contain, allowing for running room (see Brown's rushing touchdown at the end of the game). Several times he took very poor angles when he was already in position to make a play. He just seems a split-second slow to respond to the action.
My biggest concern, though, was his change of direction. He's touted as an elite athlete, but he appeared a little off-balance at times, like he had to gather himself before redirecting. Another year of growing into his frame would likely help, as will further study of opposing players' tendencies. Still, a guy to keep an eye on if he comes out, just not in the first two rounds, in my opinion. Essentially another Crable, but with more strength to set the edge.
Andrew, I was re-reading your post on Pierre-Paul. I admit that calling him "another Crable" does scare me quite a bit. But there are several very big differences:
1. Pierre-Paul has better size, speed and athleticism than Crable.
2. Pierre-Paul is still new, and is improving at a very fast rate.
3. As you note, Pierre-Paul is much stronger than Crable, and 20+ lbs. heaver, and has the strength and bulk to set the edge and play the run. This was Crable's big problem - he wasn't strong enough or heavy enough not to get pushed around.
From what I hear, the odds are that Pierre-Paul will come out this year, and Greg Romeus too. And at this point I'm very interested in seriously considering at least one of them, if not both.
Looking at the DE prospects with the speed and athleticism to play the elephant, there are about 8 potential guys who I see right now:
1. Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech. He's my hands down #1 prospect right now. Problem is, like Rolando McClain, he's played himself into being a top 15 pick right now, and a borderline top 10 pick. His productivity this year has been spectacular and very consistent. Right now he's the Aaron Curry riser on defense in this year's draft. I do think that he may slip back just a bit because some of the other guys will put up flashier numbers at the combine, but I have a hard time seeing how he slips to anywhere within reach of us.
2. Carlos Dunlap, Florida. Junior who should come out. He has the most impressive physical attributes of anyone at 6'6" 270-280 lbs. and 4.7 speed. His upside is Julius Peppers. But his play is very inconsistent, and from what I've seen he doesn't play as physical or as fast as his numbers would suggest. I would expect him to be a workout warrior at the combine. He could go top 10-15, or he could slip based on his inconsistency and lack of productivity. We might have an outside shot at him. Not sure he's worth the risk.
3. Everson Griffen, USC. He's a tad shorter than we like at 6'3", but has very long arms. Right now he's playing at 280+ lbs., but supposedly runs like a 4.65 40 and is very agile. If he slims down a bit he could definitely play the elephant. He's also been a bit inconsistent, but seems to have come on this year. Will probably come out. Right now he's a borderline 1st/2nd round pick, but he will be another workout warrior at the combine, and could conceivable go top 20.
4. Greg Hardy, South Carolina. Takes over games when healthy and on. But in the past 2 years he's been injured or off more than healthy and on. Ideal length, bulk and speed. Doesn't play the run as well as Derrick Morgan. Injury concerns may drop him to the end of the 1st round, or out altogether. Should definitely be one of the guys we take a hard look at.
5. Jason Pierre-Paul, USF. May have the biggest upside of any of these guys, but is still raw and learning the game. Will wow people at the combine. May go 1st round on potential alone, or slip to the early 3rd, though I think that's unlikely. Very athletic, very fast in pursuit and off the edge, strong enough to set the edge and play the run, and is devestating at altering passes with his 81" wingspan. I still think he's worth seriously considering with one of our 1st 4 picks. Not sure how high I'd go.
6. Greg Romeus, Pitt. Another guy who is a bit raw, and who has only played football for about 4 years. He is extremely powerful - next to Derrick Morgan, the most powerful of these guys - and pushes linemen around. Like Morgan, is very strong and terrific at setting the edge. Has a terrific motor and hustles in pursuit. Like Morgan, does not have as much pure foot speed or athleticism as Dunlap, Hardy or Pierre-Paul, and may not be quite as good in space. But I think he can play standing up, and is definitely worth considering in the 2nd round.
7. Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma. A bit smaller than the other guys at 6'3" 260#, and shorter than BB likes. Came to OU as a LB, but has played mostly DE. Makes plays all over the field, and is a terrific pass rusher. I'm not sure whether he's a DE/elephant guy or a hybrid 3-4 OLB in the Sergio Kindle/Jerry Hughes mold. But I'd definitely take a hard look at him in the 2nd round. Is flying under everyone's radar right now.
8. Austen Lane, Murray State. Division II prospect with nice size (6'6", 265#) and speed (4.65). Is very reminiscent of Mathias Kiwanuka, and can play standing up and in space. Terrific motor. Solid kid. Good pass rusher. Level of competition is a big concern. He's considered a 3rd-4th round pick right now who could sneak into the late 2nd round based on potential.
The problem that I see is that outside of Derrick Morgan, who will be long gone, all of the prospects have either inconsistency issues (Dunlap, Griffen, Hardy), injury issues (Hardy), length issues (Griffen, Beal), or issues with being raw (Pierre-Paul, Romeus, Lane). So I wouldn't be surprised if BB takes a gamble on one of the more raw guys in the 2nd round.
As an aside, I still see Robert Quinn from North Carolina as potentially the best of all of these guys, but he's a true sophomore, and will likely be a top 10 pick when he comes out. We could go after him with the pick from the Raiders.
