Breaking News Per Schefter: Long-term contract for Hernandez!

[ctpatsfan77]

 

[aluminum seats]

The hypocrisy of the "contracts aren't based on past production" crowd will be front and center when Tom Brady signs his next very lucrative deal at the age of 35 approaching 36.

I don't think that's hypocrisy so much as acknowledging that the QB position is unique, and if Brady does sign another big deal, it will be with the expectation he will continue to excel.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Ivan,

Ken used the word “likely”. I could link a bunch of studies that show on average that performance levels for WR’s drop significantly after 30.

.

What he said was that his production was likely to go down due to "diminishing skills, " which was stated like it was a fact. I simply want him to show us how his skills have been "diminsihing.

The same claim was made before last season, and we saw how that turned out. now they want to make the same argument again. asking him to back it up with fact is completely reasonable, regardless of how unlikely it is to happen. Ken has been making arguments against Welker based purely upon his opinion and stating them like facts, as he did in claiming their offense wouldn't drop off without him and that Edelman could "replace him seamlessly," and all i have asked is for him to support these arguments with more than just his opinion, which he has steadfastly ignored because he simply cannot do so based on the reality and facts of the situation.

 

[shmessy]

They don't have to spend much on the secondary next year.

McCourty 2014
Dowling 2014
Moore RFA 2013
Dennard 2015
Arrington UFA 2013

Gregory 2014
Chung 2012
Wilson 2015
Ebner 2015

I disagree.

That secondary is not strong. Particularly the Safety position is one all-too-frequent Chung injury away from being a wish and a prayer.

 

[shmessy]

The hypocrisy of the "contracts aren't based on past production" crowd will be front and center when Tom Brady signs his next very lucrative deal at the age of 35 approaching 36.

They're ripping up his contract and signing him to a new one today?

 

[Huckleberry1]

I get your first sentence - - and agree.

However, that second paragraph - - where do I start?

In the NFL, WHO telegraphs ahead of time to players' agents which players they are going to prioritize????? (maybe geniuses like Dan Snyder or Mike Tannenbaum).

Who cares about "emotions"? I don't see FA's boycotting Foxboro.

Yeah, sure, have the Pats FO tell the world that Hernandez and Gronkowski are their #1 contract priorities versus Welker or someone else and watch Gronk and Aaron's contract demands go through the roof. Had the FO done that, you would not see their two butts signed, sealed and delivered for the next half-decade-plus this morning.

They know their worth, but I'm sure Welker sitting out there got them to move also. The FO plays ALL the chips against each other. That's the way it works.

There is no worry about "emotions".

In business terms you're right, however I'm a fan and my attachment to the team is emotional, not business, and how players conduct themselves and perform matters to me. If welker had held out on an active deal a few years ago because he had clearly outperformed his deal i would have been pissed, because he sigfned it and should live with it, they had no guarantees when they gave up the pick and gave him what at the timer was a good deal for him. This is a different situation altogether. The Patriots clearly abused the franchise tag and clearly took advantage of their leverage in this situation, and as a fan i have no obligation to respect that., They should have bargained in good faith and treated him with respect, that they didn't disgusts me, even if they can get away with it.

I'm not going to stop rooting for the Patriots, and Belichick is still the greatest coach in NFL history in my book, however i still don't like the way they have handled this and i won't until it is resolved the right way. If it isn't then that's a black mark on an otherwise great franchise imo.

 

[Deus Irae]

They don't have to spend much on the secondary next year.

McCourty 2014
Dowling 2014
Moore RFA 2013
Dennard 2015
Arrington UFA 2013

Gregory 2014
Chung 2012
Wilson 2015
Ebner 2015

Next year should be another draft that's heavy on defense, including a high pick on a safety. That should add a little to the bottom line, while being less than a top free agent would cost.

 

[shmessy]

I'm thrilled with both signings, but i don't like seeing the news of it used to take shots at Welker, especially when the same people doing it are the ones who said they couldn't sign Welker because they had to pay the TE's. That's happened, and now Welker should be the priority after the season.

Here is where a fan's "emotions" can cloud his eyesight.

Who is "taking shots" at Welker? Is saying paying him, at his age, $21 million guaranteed is not the TOP priority of the FO a "shot" at Welker?

I don't see anyone here saying anything more derogatory than 'Hey, huge money may be better spent on other priorities'. And yes, Ivan, I'd rather lock up Hernandez for the next 7 years than Welker. You may think differently and that's great, but to me Hernadez would have been the greater loss going forward after 2013.

If you want to interpret that as something else, that's your prerogative.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I get your first sentence - - and agree.

However, that second paragraph - - where do I start?

In the NFL, WHO telegraphs ahead of time to players' agents which players they are going to prioritize????? (maybe geniuses like Dan Snyder or Mike Tannenbaum).

Who cares about "emotions"? I don't see FA's boycotting Foxboro.

Yeah, sure, have the Pats FO tell the world that Hernandez and Gronkowski are their #1 priorities contract priorities versus Welker or someone else and watch Gronk and Aaron's contract demands go through the roof. They know their worth, but I'm sure Welker sitting out there got them to move also. The FO plays ALL the chips against each other. That's the way it works.

Because, as we all know, the "emotions" are the most important thing to manage.

The first question you have to ask is why would you need front office input to actually come to the conclusion that final disposition on Wes would not come until after the Gronk and AHern were determined?

It's simply hard to believe this has never been anything but obviously, obvious.

Seriously, water is wet, fire is hot,...pain hurts.

The front office was never going to risk either one based on inflexibility from a Welker contract.

Besides, did you ever see the discrepancy between offering Wes 2 year/$16 million and paying $9.4 million under the franchise tag?

BTW, if you want to check out "emotions", go back and review the "not signed Welker threads". Ditto "Ivan" and his posts.

 

[PatsGirl2011]

I def can't blame Welker if he walks away. It will probably weaken the Pats because I think his presence open things up for Gronk/Hernandez. Patriot fans have a weird way of treating players on the team as if everyone should be low balled for the sake of staying on the Pats. I noticed that...from Ty Law to now Welker. It must be a Boston thing..lol..

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Next year should be another draft that's heavy on defense, including a high pick on a safety. That should add a little to the bottom line, while being less than a top free agent would cost.

We have more depth of young talent on defense than offense now.

WR and OL are bigger long term concerns than anywhere on defense other than possibly safety - but with Wilson and Gregory + the chance of resigning Chung even that, probably not.

Next year will be more offense than defense in the draft IMO.

 

[Gumby]

What he said was that his production was likely to go down due to "diminishing skills, " which was stated like it was a fact. I simply want him to show us how his skills have been "diminsihing.

The same claim was made before last season, and we saw how that turned out. now they want to make the same argument again. asking him to back it up with fact is completely reasonable, regardless of how unlikely it is to happen. Ken has been making arguments against Welker based purely upon his opinion and stating them like facts, as he did in claiming their offense wouldn't drop off without him and that Edelman could "replace him seamlessly," and all i have asked is for him to support these arguments with more than just his opinion, which he has steadfastly ignored because he simply cannot do so based on the reality and facts of the situation.

Ivan - up front I think you are both gone to the extreme on this one for no reason; but THAT SAID. He used the FUTURE TENSE of the verb to be. He did not use the PAST TENSE. So your argument is all wrong on that point.

Its ALL about future expectations! A long term deal worth 8-10MM/yr isn't one that would be likely to be played up to by Welker. His production is likely to fall due to a combination of diminishing skills, other receiving options, and possible injury over the next 3 years.

You both are imagining future scenarios (you he is healthy and production stays level) vs (he- ww will get hurt at some point and age will catch up with him like 80% of other wrs who are +32) and giving your analysis.

If you dont start from the same point you can't ever come to the same or reasonable-enough analysis.

Besides this is also a question of value - slot wr value, cap % value for wrs, and everybody has a different evaluation there of what we should be spending at THAT position - regardless if he is the best or not.

I think the Pats COULD have gotten a deal done; and wish they had.
But I also don't blame them for being gun shy on a 3 year guarantee deal. And that was the issue (from what I understood) 2 vs 3 years - not necessarily the $ amount that was on the table for the 2 years.

 

[Deus Irae]

We have more depth of young talent on defense than offense now.

WR and OL are bigger long term concerns than anywhere on defense other than possibly safety - but with Wilson and Gregory + the chance of resigning Chung even that, probably not.

Next year will be more offense than defense in the draft IMO.

Other than wide receiver, the offense is flush with young players. I grant you that the guard position would drop off from All Pro to "meh" status if the youth played, but the youth is there. When you look by position

RB - Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Demps
TE - Gronk, Hernandez, Fells
OT - Vollmer, Solder, Cannon
OG - TBD (Thomas, McDonald, Wendell)
QB - Mallett (backup behind the GOAT)

it's actually a very young offense.

 

[PatsFan2]

Other than wide receiver, the offense is flush with young players. I grant you that the guard position would drop off from All Pro to "meh" status if the youth played, but the youth is there. When you look by position

RB - Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Demps
TE - Gronk, Hernandez, Fells
OT - Vollmer, Solder, Cannon
OG - TBD (Thomas, McDonald, Wendell)
QB - Mallett (backup behind the GOAT)

it's actually a very young offense.

Team only lacks young Stud WR.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Here is where a fan's "emotions" can cloud his eyesight.

Who is "taking shots" at Welker? Is saying paying him, at his age, $21 million guaranteed is not the TOP priority of the FO a "shot" at Welker?

I don't see anyone here saying anything more derogatory than 'Hey, huge money may be better spent on other priorities'. And yes, Ivan, I'd rather lock up Hernandez for the next 7 years than Welker. You may think differently and that's great, but to me Hernadez would have been the greater loss going forward after 2013.

If you want to interpret that as something else, that's your prerogative.

I think the argument that Gronk and Hernandez were more important long term priorities is a valid one, and that's not disrespectful in any way, however the "too old, too small, system receiver, Edelman can replace him easily and the offense wouldn't drop off arguments, as wsell, as the horsecrap about his "diminishing skills" are all really ignorant and disrespectful arguments, especially when they were all used over a year ago and all proven to be bullsh.t.

If you think those arguments against Welker respect his performance and him as a player then so be it, I don't.

 

[BradyBranch39]

This gets the WR/TE franchise tag debate off the table.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Excellent news - this was the other shoe that I figured was going to drop when Welker didn't get his long-term deal. Glad to see that it did happen, and this is great timing since I expect that Hernandez will have a monster season this year. If the deal's cap-friendly enough, maybe this even means that they'll be able to make room for a Welker extension.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Ivan - up front I think you are both gone to the extreme on this one for no reason; but THAT SAID. He used the FUTURE TENSE of the verb to be. He did not use the PAST TENSE. So your argument is all wrong on that point.



.

Wheres I see the trashing of Welker as what has been way over the top. he's earned our respect and deserves better.

They said the same things before last season and he got better. Imo Ken is using the phrase "diminishing skills" as though it is fact, not conjecture, and there is no basis for it in fact, and that was proven by the fact that the same argument was made for the exact same reasons a year ago and he proved it dead wrong. people can keep saying his skills are diminishing but when he keeps getting better they need to respect that more than their own opinion.

Ken can't back it up anymore than he can his claim that the offense wouldn't drop off or that edelman can "seamlessly replace him,"

 

[patsinthesnow]

Agreed Deus, but I think you got to give a chance for Wilson and Ebner to develop before using a high pick at safety.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think some people are being way too emotional about Welker. The reality is that it's hard to see locking Hernandez in now as anything other than a positive development. Even if you think that Welker's more important long-term, this signing could be what clears up the future cap situation enough for the Patriots to be able to meet him half-way.