Brady at home vs NFC opponents

[brdmaverick]

If you are like me, you just naturally think.........ok, Pats at home, even if they are playing against a very worthy opponent I still think home field will help result in a WIN.

If my math is correct Brady is something crazy like 97-13 at home (in games in which he plays more than half). (so it will differ from official stats by excluding losses against Dolphins in '05 and Bills in '14. It also excludes the victory against KC in '08).

The Pats, however, have been less dominant over NFC opponents lately. In the last 5+ years Brady is 6-4 at home against the NFC and 30-0 against the AFC in this timeframe.

What do you think? Just coincidence or do the Pats just not fare as well against teams they see only once every four years (excl Super Bowls)?

 

[sb1]

If you are like me, you just naturally think.........ok, Pats at home, even if they are playing against a very worthy opponent I still think home field will help result in a WIN.

If my math is correct Brady is something crazy like 97-13 at home (in games in which he plays more than half). (so it will differ from official stats by excluding losses against Dolphins in '05 and Bills in '14. It also excludes the victory against KC in '08).

The Pats, however, have been less dominant over NFC opponents lately. In the last 5+ years Brady is 6-4 at home against the NFC and 30-0 against the NFC in this timeframe.

What do you think? Just coincidence or do the Pats just not fare as well against teams they see only once every four years (excl Super Bowls)?

I think if it was the latter the Pats record against the NFC home or away would be suspect.

I say coincidence. IMO the Giants loss was legit as the Pats defense just wasn't very good. The other 3 (Eagles, Cardinals, Niners) were a combination of the Pats just beating themselves, iffy officiating and unfavorable weather especially in the the latter case.

 

[aluminum seats]

The Pats, however, have been less dominant over NFC opponents lately. In the last 5+ years Brady is 6-4 at home against the NFC and 30-0 against the NFC in this timeframe.

Such a small sample size, would have to look at individual games. Probably chalk it up to random occurrence. (You have a typo there, think you mean 30-0 or whatever against the AFC.)

 

[JMC00]

Cardinals game shouldn't count. Woodhead had the TD, Gronk didn't hold. Replacement refs were an absolute f**king joke.

 

[Froob]

Brady only wins because he's in the AFC. If he were in the NFC he'd be an average quarterback.

 

[PatsFan92]

The Niners game was the most legit defeat in my opinion. We were getting absolutely dominated in all phases for three quarters and I have never seen a team dominate the Pats like that in Foxboro during the Brady/Belichick era. The niners did have a phenomenal defense that was just as good as Seattles that year. However, the magic of TB12 managed to tie it up but we still went on to lose it. Gronks absense was a big factor as I feel we would have won that game with him on the field.

 

[jah]

Cardinals game shouldn't count. Woodhead had the TD, Gronk didn't hold. Replacement refs were an absolute f**king joke.

Although, we were still in position to win in spite of all of that and Gostkowski missed a medium FG. People seem to be forgetting about his 2012 slump, which he did recover from. He wasn't that great all season.

 

[PatsDeb]

Brady only wins because he's in the AFC. If he were in the NFC he'd be an average quarterback.

This IS a joke, right?

 

[jah]

The Niners game was the most legit defeat in my opinion. We were getting absolutely dominated in all phases for three quarters and I have never seen a team dominate the Pats like that in foxboro. However, the magic of TB12 managed to get it tied up but we still went on to lose it. Gronks absense was a big factor as I feel we would have won that game with him on the field.

Yep. The 49ers were real good that year, and our defense wasn't. The fact that it went from 31-3 to 31-31 is good enough for me, considering it ultimately didn't ruin our season (we lost at home in the playoffs to the 4 seed, so seeding didn't matter).

 

[PatsFan92]

Yep. The 49ers were real good that year, and our defense wasn't. The fact that it went from 31-3 to 31-31 is good enough for me, considering it ultimately didn't ruin our season (we lost at home in the playoffs to the 4 seed, so seeding didn't matter).

Yeah, its a miracle that TB12 got it back from 31-3 down to 31-31, also considering the bad weather conditions. Its another reason why he is the GOAT because that niner defense was just as good as Seattle's that year.

 

[sb1]

Although, we were still in position to win in spite of all of that and Gostkowski missed a medium FG. People seem to be forgetting about his 2012 slump, which he did recover from. He wasn't that great all season.

That is true. I remember cringing when he lined up for the game tying FG against the Jets with the clock expired and then the winning FG in OT....

 

[Froob]

This IS a joke, right?

 

[brdmaverick]

. (You have a typo there, think you mean 30-0 or whatever against the AFC.)

Thanks, just fixed it

 

[brdmaverick]

Of those 6 wins from 2011-present, two of them were last second wins with the Pats needing a TD on their last drive (2011 vs Cowboys, 2013 vs Saints).

On the flip side, I can think of at least three 'very near losses' against AFC opponents during this time ('12 vsNYJ, '13vsCLE, '13vsDEN)

 

[brdmaverick]

I say coincidence. IMO the Giants loss was legit as the Pats defense just wasn't very good. The other 3 (Eagles, Cardinals, Niners) were a combination of the Pats just beating themselves, iffy officiating and unfavorable weather especially in the the latter case.

I still think it's coincidence, but it's not like they don't have iffy officiating, unfavorable weather, or have sluggish days against AFC teams too (but they somehow manage to win those games).

 

[sb1]

I still think it's coincidence, but it's not like they don't have iffy officiating, unfavorable weather, or have sluggish days against AFC teams too (but they somehow manage to win those games).

True but obviously that's a much larger sample size where there's more time for a progression to the "mean".

 

[Wheelman]

Lost to the Giants and freaking Eli "WTF Lucky" Manning on another late drive!

Lost to the Cardinals and the BS hold call the replacement refs called followed by a missed Gostkowski FG(He made a whole bunch of 40 yarders in that game). Not to mention Ray Horton said he prepared for this week 2 game for months! Yes, months!.

Lost to the 49ers without Gronk but still came back and almost won it down 28 in the 4th quarter.(I never stopped believing for one moment that Brady couldn't bring us back in that game.)

Lost to the Eagles because of bad ST play. Lots of people cite the Chris Harper fumble causing us to lose homefield advantage but I always look at this Eagles game. Just freaking terrible! No way we should have lost this game.

Those games were all anomalies. So I'm not concerned about this record at home vs NFC opponents in the past 5 years.

 

[Wheelman]

This IS a joke, right?

No, he's being serious. Froob is always serious.

 

[neuronet]

Yeah, its a miracle that TB12 got it back from 31-3 down to 31-31, also considering the bad weather conditions. Its another reason why he is the GOAT because that niner defense was just as good as Seattle's that year.

That was an amazing game...49ers were legit. That almost-comeback was crazy....

 

[Wordsmyth]

Brady only wins because he's in the AFC. If he were in the NFC he'd be a system quarterback.

Fixed.