Bill Simmons Article on 4th and 2

[maverick4]

I think it actually (surprisingly since I've given up on Simmons since he's become LA'fied) sums up how I feel about this pretty well, not to mention every big Pats loss since 2004. It goes into how this was essentially a 2-pt conversion, just how unlikely Manning would have scored had we punted, and how even the numbers don't really justify the call.

Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN



This isn't related to the article, since I think the Patriots should have punted, but after a few days now I can actually live with going for it IF Belichick were consistent and had run on 3rd down, called a 4th down play with Brady under center, and if that failed just let his D lay down so Brady could try to get a FG with 1:20 left. The blown timeouts will never be forgiven. Since none of these things actually happened, I can't agree with how everything went down.

 

[SVN]

I think it actually (surprisingly since I've given up on Simmons since he's become LA'fied) sums up how I feel about this pretty well, not to mention every big Pats loss since 2004. It goes into how this was essentially a 2-pt conversion, and how even the numbers don't really justify the call.

Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN



This isn't related to the article, since I think the Patriots should have punted, but after a few days now I can actually live with going for it IF Belichick were consistent and had run on 3rd down, called a 4th down play with Brady under center, and if that failed just let his D lay down so Brady could try to get a FG with 1:20 left. The blown timeouts will never be forgiven. Since none of these things actually happened, I can't agree with how everything went down.

bottomline. they played bad situational football with timeouts and playcalling on 3rd downs as much as BB says that they had already decided it was 4 down territory before the 3rd down play.shouldve run the ball there...

 

[dhamz]

Simmons is just going through the motions at this point. On Monday it might have been a worthwhile read - maybe even on Tuesday. The idea that he writes that article days after everyone else already said everything there was to say and moved on just proves how much he is mailing it in these days.

 

[mcgraw_wv]

No matter how crappy the game was, this doesn't compare to losing the AFC championship game to the Colts.

Imagine going to the Super Bowl to play the Bears...

 

[letekro]

I think it actually (surprisingly since I've given up on Simmons since he's become LA'fied) sums up how I feel about this pretty well, not to mention every big Pats loss since 2004. It goes into how this was essentially a 2-pt conversion, and how even the numbers don't really justify the call.

Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN



This isn't related to the article, since I think the Patriots should have punted, but after a few days now I can actually live with going for it IF Belichick were consistent and had run on 3rd down, called a 4th down play with Brady under center, and if that failed just let his D lay down so Brady could try to get a FG with 1:20 left. The blown timeouts will never be forgiven. Since none of these things actually happened, I can't agree with how everything went down.

The guy is no better than Prisco or any others when it comes to his football musings. Again, the overall plan was poorly executed for the reasons you mention above, but the 4th down call itself, in a vacuum, was correct in my opinion.

 

[Mack Herron]

The rationale in this article makes more sense to me than the arguments offered by BB (are there any?) or others trying to defend his call. In particular, the pass call on third down and misuse of timeouts (wasting ours, not forcing Colts to burn theirs) clearly point to confusion and game mismanagement during what is, to this point, the most crucial point during the most crucial game of the season. He did not lose the game single-handedly, but instead of leading his team through treacherous waters to victory, he played a key role in leading them to defeat. After 9 games he has frittered away any remaining margin for error, and the remainder of the season will decide the importance of BB's fallibility last Sunday. Has he faced a bigger challenge?

 

[Boots Electric]

First things first. I like Bill Simmons. I tend to enjoy his podcasts and his articles (while sometimes really seem like he mailing it in) have been enjoyable for the most part. That said. I have not liked pretty much anything he's written since 2007 about the Patriots. Especially his handling of the whole Spygate situation and the "Brady Rule" which he friends mock him for but he won't come to the defense of Brady.

I see where he's coming from in this article, but this has already been talked to death all week long and the camps have already been setup. He is just fueling the camp that didn't like the call. It's a bad loss in the middle of the season. It's upsetting. But you can't dwell on it. Move on.

 

[maverick4]

I agree that Simmons is mailing it in, to write this on a Friday after it happened on Sunday.

He made some unique points though, that I haven't heard in dozens of threads or days of talk radio, which is that it was like a 2-point conversion (whose rates aren't very good), and that Manning's chance of success was way lower than anyone has claimed thus far.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The rationale in this article makes more sense to me than the arguments offered by BB (are there any?) or others trying to defend his call. In particular, the pass call on third down and misuse of timeouts (wasting ours, not forcing Colts to burn theirs) clearly point to confusion and game mismanagement during what is, to this point, the most crucial point during the most crucial game of the season. He did not lose the game single-handedly, but instead of leading his team through treacherous waters to victory, he played a key role in leading them to defeat. After 9 games he has frittered away any remaining margin for error, and the remainder of the season will decide the importance of BB's fallibility last Sunday. Has he faced a bigger challenge?

So what are you suggesting, if we lose again we fire him because the way he coaches doesn't make sense to you???...LOL

There are plenty of fact/data/anecdotal based arguments that have been made in favor of Bill's decision including by Bill. If you missed them, or couldn't even comprehend them, that's on you not him. There certainly were communication issues that led to the use of TO's, one of which might have come in handy but only since, in spite of all that in the final analysis, he indeed had the right play called to convert on 4th and 2 inside the 30 only a bad spot negated it.

 

[BradyManny]

F**k Bill Simmons.

Forget the #s - what everyone here is forgetting is that the defense still had prevent Peyton Manning from picking up 28 yards on a short field. Whether Manning gets the ball at his 28 or our 28, does anyone really think it wasn't coming down to a redzone stand? Either way, the defense is still going to have to stop him in that area of the field!

Gimme a break, I love the mindset of Belichick bashers, most notably, this is what I heard on D&C all week from those two geniuses:

"Oh my god, why didn't he punt?!? Giving it to Manning from his own 28, that's a guaranteed TD!!! If he punted it, there's NO WAY Manning would've scored!!"

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The entire premise for Simmons article is his posession of an educated opinion. A term all manner of us fans throw around like we can actually approach assuming what that might entail compared to professionals who spend their entire careers reviewing film and scouting tendancies and gameplanning against offenses and defenses, and grading players performances in that context and winning rings in the process.

 

[Mack Herron]

So what are you suggesting, if we lose again we fire him because the way he coaches doesn't make sense to you???...LOL

There are plenty of fact/data/anecdotal based arguments that have been made in favor of Bill's decision including by Bill. If you missed them, or couldn't even comprehend them, that's on you not him. There certainly were communication issues that led to the use of TO's, one of which might have come in handy but only since, in spite of all that in the final analysis, he indeed had the right play called to convert on 4th and 2 inside the 30 only a bad spot negated it.

I merely think he made did a poor job of game mangement in that situation. It is revealing that you somehow equate this with my wanting him fired.

 

[JR4]

Want a real statistical analysis of the 4 and 2 situation?
Try someone who has made a research project out of such
4 and 2 situations, the research project of David Romer.

Bill Belichick Wasn't That Nuts To Go For It - Forbes.com

 

[BionicPatriot]

That shows he's an idiot with nothing but hind sight, I can't stand that.

It's easy to criticize BB after his decision fails. But IF it works? We sit down the enxt day and say, "Well of course Bill was right, he had the balls to go for it and with Tom Brady only needing 2 yards against a defense he has torched all night, why not?"

But no, instead it fails and fans are left bashing the man to death. again, hind sight is ridiculous and this is why. We always love when Bill goes for it on 4th down, this time the team didn't get it done. Why don't we criticize Faulk or Brady for not getting 2 yards? But that's right, this is Boston and Boston always goes for the easy scape goat.

I only agree with Simmons on one part. Bill continues to be outcoached in the second half of big games. This needs to end now.

 

[Boots Electric]

I agree that Simmons is mailing it in, to write this on a Friday after it happened on Sunday.

He made some unique points though, that I haven't heard in dozens of threads or days of talk radio, which is that it was like a 2-point conversion (whose rates aren't very good), and that Manning's chance of success was way lower than anyone has claimed thus far.[/QUOTE]

The thing about that is you can't look at past success in this game. Here's why. Manning and the Colts on the past two TD drives before their game winning touchdown went for 158 yards in 3:53. The Patriots front line was completely gassed and they were no longer getting to Manning on those plays.

It's not that I want to turn this into ANOTHER thread about whether it was the right call or not...but it's just a legitimate argument you can bring up to counter his argument. The Pats defense just gave up 2 TDs in less then 4 minutes in the 4th quarter. Manning success rate in those situations goes out the door in that game since he already showed he can do it twice.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I agree that Simmons is mailing it in, to write this on a Friday after it happened on Sunday.

He made some unique points though, that I haven't heard in dozens of threads or days of talk radio, which is that it was like a 2-point conversion (whose rates aren't very good), and that Manning's chance of success was way lower than anyone has claimed thus far.

The 2pt conversion take was very interesting. As for Manning's lowered chance of success driving a 70yd field, others here did make that point.

Regards,
Chris

 

[man2reg87]

I would have to agree with the Head Ref on NFLN, If it were challenged not enough to over turn, If the call was a first down and challenged again not enough to over turn. Just my 2 cents, like you guys give a flying frog what I think but, you punt. Regardless what the Colts had done prior, you force them to go 60+ yards vs. 28 yards.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I agree that Simmons is mailing it in, to write this on a Friday after it happened on Sunday.

He made some unique points though, that I haven't heard in dozens of threads or days of talk radio, which is that it was like a 2-point conversion (whose rates aren't very good), and that Manning's chance of success was way lower than anyone has claimed thus far.

He wrote this piece because he couldn't believe there were alternate opinions. How novel.

4th and 2 and 2 point conversion is apples and oranges. But Bill is fishing for something statistical to hang his opinion on as being something more than that. That he actually equates his 20 hours a week of football watching since grade school to an education, that doesn't surprise me.

People are working on that success rate data. But Bill likely won't like the results when the generic comeback stats are replaced by Mannings because they (like Brady's) are likely double the average or better.

Two minute drive success rates - Cold, Hard Football Facts

 

[letekro]

The 2pt conversion take was very interesting.

Regards,
Chris

Actually, it was completely idiotic. The odds of making a two point conversion are SIGNIFICANTLY lower than making two yards elsewhere on the field (although, by throwing a pass right at the sticks, the Patriots did not take advantage of being able to use the whole field).

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Actually, it was completely idiotic. The odds of making a two point conversion are SIGNIFICANTLY lower than making two yards elsewhere on the field (although, by throwing a pass right at the sticks, the Patriots did not take advantage of being able to use the whole field).

His point was that the Pats played it like a 2pt conversion (as did the Colts, BTW) and I agree. They (stupidly) abandoned any pretense of a run with no RB next to Brady, they apparently had no intention of stretching the field as all options were a quick hitter a few yards downfield to whoever appeared to have the best matchup (Brady admitted this afterward), the Colts played them this way (right up on the receivers, unafraid of a deep ball) and all this for 2 yards in one play. That's very much like a 2pt conversion.

Regards,
Chris