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Belichick rated #1 of all GM's in Expensive FA Signings

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betterthanthealternative

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From The Athletic.

Ranking NFL GMs by their most expensive free agent signings: Bill Belichick No. 1?!​

Mike Sando

The best moves in NFL free agency are frequently the ones teams do not make. Think of all the general managers last offseason whose fans hoped their teams would sign Jadeveon Clowney, one of the most talented defensive players in the game. A year later, the only GM catching criticism regarding Clowney is the GM who paid him $12.7 million for an eight-game, zero-sack season.

In revisiting some of the biggest signings over the past decade, about 20 percent seem in retrospect to be signings a smart GM might make again if given a chance. That’s how I saw it, anyway, when placing every incumbent GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings into one of three categories, producing an average that, perhaps surprisingly, left the New England Patriots’ Bill Belichick standing above all his rivals.

If Belichick’s coaching reputation took a small hit this past season when his Patriots faltered and Tom Brady collected Super Bowl ring No. 7 without him, his record in signing higher-priced free agents provides some relief. At the other extreme, it is clearly time for the Las Vegas Raiders to reassess. Their record in free agency with coach Jon Gruden calling the shots through GM Mike Mayock ranks … well, we’ll get there soon enough.

Before we explore the GM rankings, a word on the categories used for evaluating all the signings, which for this exercise pertain only to deals made since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, dated Aug. 4 of that year:
Category 1: Moves a smart GM would make again (20 percent of signings)
Category 2: Moves we could make a case for either way (37 percent of signings)
Category 3: Moves a smart GM would not make again (43 percent of signings)

By assigning those values to each GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings, as defined by average per year (APY), an average score emerges for the 26 GMs who were in place before this offseason. The results are not necessarily a ranking of how well GMs have done in free agency overall. In many cases, head coaches and owners exert significant influence and, again, the moves teams do not make are sometimes the best ones. Also, we considered only the most expensive moves each GM made, ignoring some of the better bargains that can set apart top evaluators. I focused on the most expensive moves partly because those are the ones generating the most excitement year after year, including when the 2021 unrestricted market opens March 17.

There were 263 signings to evaluate overall. That’s 10 for each of the 26 incumbent GMs, plus three involving players whose salaries tied for the 10th spots on some ledgers. Under consideration were signings of veterans released by their previous teams and true unrestricted free agents (UFAs) whose contracts had expired. All signings were made after the Super Bowl in February and before the regular season in September. The players had to change teams, meaning no re-signings were considered.

Note: Players in Category 1 (signings a smart GM would make again) are shaded blue in the tables below. Players in Category 3 (signings a smart GM would not make again) are shaded red. The other moves are not shaded. Also, the six GMs hired this offseason are not included.

1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Average signing score: 1.5
Winning helps justify all, potentially biasing these results in Belichick’s favor, but there’s only one truly terrible signing on the list — the one New England made in adding Antonio Brown before the 2019 season. It was the type of move a team sometimes makes to appease a veteran quarterback desperate for weaponry. Sometimes those moves work out, as was the case for Tampa Bay and Brown this past season. Other times, not so much.

Brandon Browner gets a 1 for his price and the role he played in New England beating Seattle in the Super Bowl. Yeah, the Patriots would sign up for that again. Danny Amendola could have been a 1 for the important role he played as a slot receiver in an offense that depended on the position, but he wasn’t especially productive, and injuries were a factor.

Only three of the moves listed reached even $6 million in APY, another key to these deals qualifying as ones a smart GM might make again. Three other GMs — Les Snead, Ryan Pace and Jason Licht — had all 10 of their qualifying moves reach that threshold. Only Mike Brown (two) and relative newcomers Ron Rivera and Eric DeCosta (one apiece) had fewer $6 million-a-year additions than Belichick among the GMs listed.

RANKSIGNINGPOSAPY
1 Darrelle RevisCB$16.0M
2 Antonio BrownWR$15.28M
3 Stephon GilmoreCB$12.97M
4 Danny AmendolaWR$5.54M
5 Jabaal SheardDE$5.5M
6 Adrian ClaybornDE$5.0M
7 Brandon BrownerCB$4.12M
8 Shaun EllisDE$4.0M
8 Brandon LloydWR$4.0M
10 Lawrence GuyDT$3.6M
Avg$7.6M
 

1960Pats

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The thought police may not allow you to post something positive about Belichick. Thread carefully, we're only supposed to love Tommy and hate Bill around here.
Why not let each thread go in the direction that the OP would like, instead of steering it over a cliff in post #2.
 

1960Pats

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From The Athletic.

Ranking NFL GMs by their most expensive free agent signings: Bill Belichick No. 1?!​

Mike Sando

The best moves in NFL free agency are frequently the ones teams do not make. Think of all the general managers last offseason whose fans hoped their teams would sign Jadeveon Clowney, one of the most talented defensive players in the game. A year later, the only GM catching criticism regarding Clowney is the GM who paid him $12.7 million for an eight-game, zero-sack season.

In revisiting some of the biggest signings over the past decade, about 20 percent seem in retrospect to be signings a smart GM might make again if given a chance. That’s how I saw it, anyway, when placing every incumbent GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings into one of three categories, producing an average that, perhaps surprisingly, left the New England Patriots’ Bill Belichick standing above all his rivals.

If Belichick’s coaching reputation took a small hit this past season when his Patriots faltered and Tom Brady collected Super Bowl ring No. 7 without him, his record in signing higher-priced free agents provides some relief. At the other extreme, it is clearly time for the Las Vegas Raiders to reassess. Their record in free agency with coach Jon Gruden calling the shots through GM Mike Mayock ranks … well, we’ll get there soon enough.

Before we explore the GM rankings, a word on the categories used for evaluating all the signings, which for this exercise pertain only to deals made since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, dated Aug. 4 of that year:
Category 1: Moves a smart GM would make again (20 percent of signings)
Category 2: Moves we could make a case for either way (37 percent of signings)
Category 3: Moves a smart GM would not make again (43 percent of signings)

By assigning those values to each GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings, as defined by average per year (APY), an average score emerges for the 26 GMs who were in place before this offseason. The results are not necessarily a ranking of how well GMs have done in free agency overall. In many cases, head coaches and owners exert significant influence and, again, the moves teams do not make are sometimes the best ones. Also, we considered only the most expensive moves each GM made, ignoring some of the better bargains that can set apart top evaluators. I focused on the most expensive moves partly because those are the ones generating the most excitement year after year, including when the 2021 unrestricted market opens March 17.

There were 263 signings to evaluate overall. That’s 10 for each of the 26 incumbent GMs, plus three involving players whose salaries tied for the 10th spots on some ledgers. Under consideration were signings of veterans released by their previous teams and true unrestricted free agents (UFAs) whose contracts had expired. All signings were made after the Super Bowl in February and before the regular season in September. The players had to change teams, meaning no re-signings were considered.

Note: Players in Category 1 (signings a smart GM would make again) are shaded blue in the tables below. Players in Category 3 (signings a smart GM would not make again) are shaded red. The other moves are not shaded. Also, the six GMs hired this offseason are not included.

1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Average signing score: 1.5
Winning helps justify all, potentially biasing these results in Belichick’s favor, but there’s only one truly terrible signing on the list — the one New England made in adding Antonio Brown before the 2019 season. It was the type of move a team sometimes makes to appease a veteran quarterback desperate for weaponry. Sometimes those moves work out, as was the case for Tampa Bay and Brown this past season. Other times, not so much.

Brandon Browner gets a 1 for his price and the role he played in New England beating Seattle in the Super Bowl. Yeah, the Patriots would sign up for that again. Danny Amendola could have been a 1 for the important role he played as a slot receiver in an offense that depended on the position, but he wasn’t especially productive, and injuries were a factor.

Only three of the moves listed reached even $6 million in APY, another key to these deals qualifying as ones a smart GM might make again. Three other GMs — Les Snead, Ryan Pace and Jason Licht — had all 10 of their qualifying moves reach that threshold. Only Mike Brown (two) and relative newcomers Ron Rivera and Eric DeCosta (one apiece) had fewer $6 million-a-year additions than Belichick among the GMs listed.

RANKSIGNINGPOSAPY
1 Darrelle RevisCB$16.0M
2 Antonio BrownWR$15.28M
3 Stephon GilmoreCB$12.97M
4 Danny AmendolaWR$5.54M
5 Jabaal SheardDE$5.5M
6 Adrian ClaybornDE$5.0M
7 Brandon BrownerCB$4.12M
8 Shaun EllisDE$4.0M
8 Brandon LloydWR$4.0M
10 Lawrence GuyDT$3.6M
Avg$7.6M
I don't agree that Antonio Brown was a bad signing. He was a great addition but became bad because the owner dumped him over PR. Had he stayed he could have been a big plus and put the offense over the top.

I also have to wonder about the subjectivity of the categories. There could be different opinions on what category each signing should be. One thing I think we can all agree on is that Gilmore was a GREAT signing.
 

everlong

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
If you start to add in the day 3 draft picks the list looks even better with guys like Van Noy, Ted Washington, Casillas, Ayers......sure there's been the Ocho Stinkos and Hanyesworthless's but everybody has a few.

Now just stop over-drafting special teams players like Richards and Jones.
 

stinkypete

In the Starting Line-Up
Not to connect too many dominos but Brady basically said F this after Brown was cut. So thanks for 2019 Bob.
It's hard to single out Kraft too much here. You can argue that he was trying to save face after the rub-n-tug scandal, but paying someone on the verge of a long-term suspension $9 million dollars is bad business.

The fault for AB not working out falls on all of us. It's the fault of a media that is constantly seeking out and glorifying a scandal, and of the peple who consume this media. It's the fault of a league that normalized disciplining a player without due process, and the fans who are too quick to assume guilt when the player is part of a rival, and who are too quick to assume innosence when the player is part of the home team. It's the fault of a political culture that insulates powerful wealthy men from consequences, just as its the fault of an opposing political culture whose thirst for justice has grown into bloodthirst for vengence.
 

TheRainMaker

I'm getting my res at Dorsia
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Nice timing on deflecting Bill signing Cam Newton.
 

TheRainMaker

I'm getting my res at Dorsia
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The fault for AB not working out falls on all of us. It's the fault of a media that is constantly seeking out and glorifying a scandal, and of the peple who consume this media. It's the fault of a league that normalized disciplining a player without due process, and the fans who are too quick to assume guilt when the player is part of a rival, and who are too quick to assume innosence when the player is part of the home team. It's the fault of a political culture that insulates powerful wealthy men from consequences, just as its the fault of an opposing political culture whose thirst for justice has grown into bloodthirst for vengence.
Yep, if social media didn't exist, Pats would've weathered the storm and kept Brown. However, funny how the media dropped talking about Brown right after he got released by the Pats. Tyrek Hill admitted to beating his son and that was talked about briefly while KC just ignored it. Media eventually gave up and moved on to something else.
 

Jlaff

Early Bird Specials
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I don't agree that Antonio Brown was a bad signing. He was a great addition but became bad because the owner dumped him over PR. Had he stayed he could have been a big plus and put the offense over the top.

I also have to wonder about the subjectivity of the categories. There could be different opinions on what category each signing should be. One thing I think we can all agree on is that Gilmore was a GREAT signing.
Also strongly in the camp that signing AB was a great move. Rub Job Bob panicked fearing media criticism of his FL adventure and destroyed the season and insured Brady's giving up on the Pats franchise.
I thought I was the only one banging this drum. Great to see two posts nearly back to back recognizing the ripple effect of Early Bird Bob's decisions. Weakest link as far as character and backbone in the entire organization.
 

tuckeverlasting

In the Starting Line-Up
It's hard to single out Kraft too much here. You can argue that he was trying to save face after the rub-n-tug scandal, but paying someone on the verge of a long-term suspension $9 million dollars is bad business.

The fault for AB not working out falls on all of us. It's the fault of a media that is constantly seeking out and glorifying a scandal, and of the peple who consume this media. It's the fault of a league that normalized disciplining a player without due process, and the fans who are too quick to assume guilt when the player is part of a rival, and who are too quick to assume innosence when the player is part of the home team. It's the fault of a political culture that insulates powerful wealthy men from consequences, just as its the fault of an opposing political culture whose thirst for justice has grown into bloodthirst for vengence.
wow...you got all that from the ab signing and subsequent release. i'm impressed. what i find curious is how none of these stories came out until he signed with the pats and as soon as he was released they suddenly disappeared. what happened to all the investigative reporting that was going on while he was with the pats and most of those stories came from the time he was in pittsburgh. so the press there definitely covers for the team ie the under reporting of the team dr and steroid purveyor rydze scandal. i'm curious if he had to testify in front of congress like all those yankees had to.
 
Last edited:

Sciz

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I don't agree that Antonio Brown was a bad signing. He was a great addition but became bad because the owner dumped him over PR. Had he stayed he could have been a big plus and put the offense over the top.
The NFL made it clear later in the season that he would have been placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List if he were on a team. As soon as he was under investigation for sexual assault, he fit the criteria for paid leave until the allegation was resolved.
 

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