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From The Athletic.
The best moves in NFL free agency are frequently the ones teams do not make. Think of all the general managers last offseason whose fans hoped their teams would sign Jadeveon Clowney, one of the most talented defensive players in the game. A year later, the only GM catching criticism regarding Clowney is the GM who paid him $12.7 million for an eight-game, zero-sack season.
In revisiting some of the biggest signings over the past decade, about 20 percent seem in retrospect to be signings a smart GM might make again if given a chance. That’s how I saw it, anyway, when placing every incumbent GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings into one of three categories, producing an average that, perhaps surprisingly, left the New England Patriots’ Bill Belichick standing above all his rivals.
If Belichick’s coaching reputation took a small hit this past season when his Patriots faltered and Tom Brady collected Super Bowl ring No. 7 without him, his record in signing higher-priced free agents provides some relief. At the other extreme, it is clearly time for the Las Vegas Raiders to reassess. Their record in free agency with coach Jon Gruden calling the shots through GM Mike Mayock ranks … well, we’ll get there soon enough.
Before we explore the GM rankings, a word on the categories used for evaluating all the signings, which for this exercise pertain only to deals made since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, dated Aug. 4 of that year:
Category 1: Moves a smart GM would make again (20 percent of signings)
Category 2: Moves we could make a case for either way (37 percent of signings)
Category 3: Moves a smart GM would not make again (43 percent of signings)
By assigning those values to each GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings, as defined by average per year (APY), an average score emerges for the 26 GMs who were in place before this offseason. The results are not necessarily a ranking of how well GMs have done in free agency overall. In many cases, head coaches and owners exert significant influence and, again, the moves teams do not make are sometimes the best ones. Also, we considered only the most expensive moves each GM made, ignoring some of the better bargains that can set apart top evaluators. I focused on the most expensive moves partly because those are the ones generating the most excitement year after year, including when the 2021 unrestricted market opens March 17.
There were 263 signings to evaluate overall. That’s 10 for each of the 26 incumbent GMs, plus three involving players whose salaries tied for the 10th spots on some ledgers. Under consideration were signings of veterans released by their previous teams and true unrestricted free agents (UFAs) whose contracts had expired. All signings were made after the Super Bowl in February and before the regular season in September. The players had to change teams, meaning no re-signings were considered.
Note: Players in Category 1 (signings a smart GM would make again) are shaded blue in the tables below. Players in Category 3 (signings a smart GM would not make again) are shaded red. The other moves are not shaded. Also, the six GMs hired this offseason are not included.
Winning helps justify all, potentially biasing these results in Belichick’s favor, but there’s only one truly terrible signing on the list — the one New England made in adding Antonio Brown before the 2019 season. It was the type of move a team sometimes makes to appease a veteran quarterback desperate for weaponry. Sometimes those moves work out, as was the case for Tampa Bay and Brown this past season. Other times, not so much.
Brandon Browner gets a 1 for his price and the role he played in New England beating Seattle in the Super Bowl. Yeah, the Patriots would sign up for that again. Danny Amendola could have been a 1 for the important role he played as a slot receiver in an offense that depended on the position, but he wasn’t especially productive, and injuries were a factor.
Only three of the moves listed reached even $6 million in APY, another key to these deals qualifying as ones a smart GM might make again. Three other GMs — Les Snead, Ryan Pace and Jason Licht — had all 10 of their qualifying moves reach that threshold. Only Mike Brown (two) and relative newcomers Ron Rivera and Eric DeCosta (one apiece) had fewer $6 million-a-year additions than Belichick among the GMs listed.
Ranking NFL GMs by their most expensive free agent signings: Bill Belichick No. 1?!
Mike SandoThe best moves in NFL free agency are frequently the ones teams do not make. Think of all the general managers last offseason whose fans hoped their teams would sign Jadeveon Clowney, one of the most talented defensive players in the game. A year later, the only GM catching criticism regarding Clowney is the GM who paid him $12.7 million for an eight-game, zero-sack season.
In revisiting some of the biggest signings over the past decade, about 20 percent seem in retrospect to be signings a smart GM might make again if given a chance. That’s how I saw it, anyway, when placing every incumbent GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings into one of three categories, producing an average that, perhaps surprisingly, left the New England Patriots’ Bill Belichick standing above all his rivals.
If Belichick’s coaching reputation took a small hit this past season when his Patriots faltered and Tom Brady collected Super Bowl ring No. 7 without him, his record in signing higher-priced free agents provides some relief. At the other extreme, it is clearly time for the Las Vegas Raiders to reassess. Their record in free agency with coach Jon Gruden calling the shots through GM Mike Mayock ranks … well, we’ll get there soon enough.
Before we explore the GM rankings, a word on the categories used for evaluating all the signings, which for this exercise pertain only to deals made since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, dated Aug. 4 of that year:
Category 1: Moves a smart GM would make again (20 percent of signings)
Category 2: Moves we could make a case for either way (37 percent of signings)
Category 3: Moves a smart GM would not make again (43 percent of signings)
By assigning those values to each GM’s 10 most expensive offseason signings, as defined by average per year (APY), an average score emerges for the 26 GMs who were in place before this offseason. The results are not necessarily a ranking of how well GMs have done in free agency overall. In many cases, head coaches and owners exert significant influence and, again, the moves teams do not make are sometimes the best ones. Also, we considered only the most expensive moves each GM made, ignoring some of the better bargains that can set apart top evaluators. I focused on the most expensive moves partly because those are the ones generating the most excitement year after year, including when the 2021 unrestricted market opens March 17.
There were 263 signings to evaluate overall. That’s 10 for each of the 26 incumbent GMs, plus three involving players whose salaries tied for the 10th spots on some ledgers. Under consideration were signings of veterans released by their previous teams and true unrestricted free agents (UFAs) whose contracts had expired. All signings were made after the Super Bowl in February and before the regular season in September. The players had to change teams, meaning no re-signings were considered.
Note: Players in Category 1 (signings a smart GM would make again) are shaded blue in the tables below. Players in Category 3 (signings a smart GM would not make again) are shaded red. The other moves are not shaded. Also, the six GMs hired this offseason are not included.
1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Average signing score: 1.5Winning helps justify all, potentially biasing these results in Belichick’s favor, but there’s only one truly terrible signing on the list — the one New England made in adding Antonio Brown before the 2019 season. It was the type of move a team sometimes makes to appease a veteran quarterback desperate for weaponry. Sometimes those moves work out, as was the case for Tampa Bay and Brown this past season. Other times, not so much.
Brandon Browner gets a 1 for his price and the role he played in New England beating Seattle in the Super Bowl. Yeah, the Patriots would sign up for that again. Danny Amendola could have been a 1 for the important role he played as a slot receiver in an offense that depended on the position, but he wasn’t especially productive, and injuries were a factor.
Only three of the moves listed reached even $6 million in APY, another key to these deals qualifying as ones a smart GM might make again. Three other GMs — Les Snead, Ryan Pace and Jason Licht — had all 10 of their qualifying moves reach that threshold. Only Mike Brown (two) and relative newcomers Ron Rivera and Eric DeCosta (one apiece) had fewer $6 million-a-year additions than Belichick among the GMs listed.
| RANK | SIGNING | POS | APY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Darrelle Revis | CB | $16.0M |
| 2 |  Antonio Brown | WR | $15.28M |
| 3 |  Stephon Gilmore | CB | $12.97M |
| 4 |  Danny Amendola | WR | $5.54M |
| 5 |  Jabaal Sheard | DE | $5.5M |
| 6 |  Adrian Clayborn | DE | $5.0M |
| 7 |  Brandon Browner | CB | $4.12M |
| 8 |  Shaun Ellis | DE | $4.0M |
| 8 |  Brandon Lloyd | WR | $4.0M |
| 10 |  Lawrence Guy | DT | $3.6M |
| Avg | $7.6M |
