Belichick in-game decisions masterclass

[Biffins]

In his post-game interview with Boomer, Belichick explained how the Falcons showed their hands fairly early and by the mid/end of 1st quarter he knew it was going to be a Cover-1, man to man with a free safety on top and an outside run game. The Patriots didn't really play well the 2nd quarter even if they understood what was going on and the adjustments only came over half-time. Atlanta run-game got stuffed for 17 yards on 10 carries in the 2nd half. Also with the number of plays they were running, Belichick suspected Falcons would get gassed in the 2nd half and revert to their standard Cover-3 (Cover-1 is a lot of exhausting and physically demanding on the secondary). And that's what happened by end of 3rd Quarter, and Brady gashed the Cover-3 all the way. Also on the defense they basically decided to send the house on most plays in the 2nd half and were rushing the passer hard, instead of sitting back and it worked.

Besides the adjustments to offense and defense, the other in-game decisions that stand out

1. Going for it on 4th and 6 from their own 46 yard line. Awesome decision and Belichick realized they needed to maximize their opportunities even if it meant potentially turning the ball over mid-field.
2. On-side kick. Another great decision. I completely agree that if you thought you'd eventually need an on-side kick or two (this is before we got another series via the Hightower fumble), then might as well do it earlier when they are not expecting it and chances to convert are higher. The on-side kick was a good call and we caught them by surprise and had the advantage on numbers. It should have been converted. Ghost let it hit his legs while running in.
3. Kicking the FG. Some commentators were saying they should be going for it on 4th down but this was a good call to reduce the deficit to two scores.
4. Timeouts. I feel Belichick should have called a timeout on the run after the crazy Julio catch. Atlanta ran for -1 yards and we didn't call a timeout, we should have to stop the clock. On the next play Flowers sacked Ryan and we did immediately call a timeout to stop the clock. Eventually we scored so fast we didn't need more time and infact gave them a minute. But at the time it looked like Falcons were in FG range and we might have needed another series if Falcons were two scores up.

But all-in-all Belichick pretty much nailed all the crucial game-time decisions, stuff other coaches routinely bungle on and hurt their teams since a lot of head coaches are distracted with other stuff and don't optimize these decisions properly. Was a great game from BB.

 

[farn]

When everyone panics, BB stays the course. And, more often than not, he wins.

 

[Sicilian]

Someone on the radio made the point about the onside kick that I think was a good one: Once we did it that one time, the Falcons HAD to setup for it from that point on knowing our desperation. That allowed Ghost to kick floater on one of the kickoffs that ended up starting Atlanta at their 10. So even though unsuccessful, the attempt still had an impact down the stretch.

Of course, the negative there was that since it WAS unsuccessful, we needed a big stop from the D or the game was over*.

*I should never assume a game is over again, now that I think about it...

 

[Nehalem]

3. Kicking the FG. Some commentators were saying they should be going for it on 4th down but this was a good call to reduce the deficit to two scores.

Probably learned from last year when he didn't kick multiple FGs in the AFCCG that would have given the Patriots the win.

 

[mosi]

At the same time, this game was another example of how bad the other coaches in the league are. BB is a 100/100 but the rest is probably 35/100.

 

[luuked]

Probably learned from last year when he didn't kick multiple FGs in the AFCCG that would have given the Patriots the win.

Too bad he can't coach with hindsight at the time the game is being played. Guess he needs to figure out that language from the Arrival movie.

 

[luuked]

In his post-game interview with Boomer, Belichick explained how the Falcons showed their hands fairly early and by the mid/end of 1st quarter he knew it was going to be a Cover-1, man to man with a free safety on top and an outside run game. The Patriots didn't really play well the 2nd quarter even if they understood what was going on and the adjustments only came over half-time. Atlanta run-game got stuffed for 17 yards on 10 carries in the 2nd half. Also with the number of plays they were running, Belichick suspected Falcons would get gassed in the 2nd half and revert to their standard Cover-3 (Cover-1 is a lot of exhausting and physically demanding on the secondary). And that's what happened by end of 3rd Quarter, and Brady gashed the Cover-3 all the way. Also on the defense they basically decided to send the house on most plays in the 2nd half and were rushing the passer hard, instead of sitting back and it worked.

Exactly. I have been saying this a lot after rewatching the game in a more relaxed setting. We looked considerably better towards the end of the game because the Falcons were too gassed to keep running the scheme that worked so well in the first half. Yes, our execution was also considerably better but due to the scheme their defense turned into something that Brady could just carve up.

 

[Kontradiction]

Looked like Cover-1 Robber they were specifically playing (though hard to be sure without having the All-22) early on to choke off the underneath stuff and force the Pats to beat them deep. Because of that, Brady had to hold the ball longer than he usually does which was where that pass rush was coming from in the first half. The Falcons blew their wad, though, and the Patriots ran 93 (!!!) plays. Even if White didn't get in on that run in OT, it was going to happen. They were absolutely spent.

 

[ALP]

i still can't believe he decided that 2 TDs WITH 2 2PT conversions was the best path forward

no room for error at all if you miss an extra point

 

[PP2]

In his post-game interview with Boomer, Belichick explained how the Falcons showed their hands fairly early and by the mid/end of 1st quarter he knew it was going to be a Cover-1, man to man with a free safety on top and an outside run game. The Patriots didn't really play well the 2nd quarter even if they understood what was going on and the adjustments only came over half-time. Atlanta run-game got stuffed for 17 yards on 10 carries in the 2nd half. Also with the number of plays they were running, Belichick suspected Falcons would get gassed in the 2nd half and revert to their standard Cover-3 (Cover-1 is a lot of exhausting and physically demanding on the secondary). And that's what happened by end of 3rd Quarter, and Brady gashed the Cover-3 all the way. Also on the defense they basically decided to send the house on most plays in the 2nd half and were rushing the passer hard, instead of sitting back and it worked.

Besides the adjustments to offense and defense, the other in-game decisions that stand out

1. Going for it on 4th and 6 from their own 46 yard line. Awesome decision and Belichick realized they needed to maximize their opportunities even if it meant potentially turning the ball over mid-field.
2. On-side kick. Another great decision. I completely agree that if you thought you'd eventually need an on-side kick or two (this is before we got another series via the Hightower fumble), then might as well do it earlier when they are not expecting it and chances to convert are higher. The on-side kick was a good call and we caught them by surprise and had the advantage on numbers. It should have been converted. Ghost let it hit his legs while running in.
3. Kicking the FG. Some commentators were saying they should be going for it on 4th down but this was a good call to reduce the deficit to two scores.
4. Timeouts. I feel Belichick should have called a timeout on the run after the crazy Julio catch. Atlanta ran for -1 yards and we didn't call a timeout, we should have to stop the clock. On the next play Flowers sacked Ryan and we did immediately call a timeout to stop the clock. Eventually we scored so fast we didn't need more time and infact gave them a minute. But at the time it looked like Falcons were in FG range and we might have needed another series if Falcons were two scores up.

But all-in-all Belichick pretty much nailed all the crucial game-time decisions, stuff other coaches routinely bungle on and hurt their teams since a lot of head coaches are distracted with other stuff and don't optimize these decisions properly. Was a great game from BB.

AMEN!

This in-game realization and subsequent response is going to rank right up there with BB's greatest coaching, ever. A perfect example of war of attrition: knowing that Falcons were playing straight up man to man with only one free man sitting in the middle to take away our crossing routes, what do we do? We keep flipping formations, changing alignments- this forced a lot of pre-snap motion by Atlanta, so even before the snap, the DB's were already running back and forth, matching up. Atlanta's defense is built up on speed, and BB uses this against them.

I also think that BB was gambling on the long halftime being his best ally- and that he, being the more experienced coach, would incorporate 30 minute breaks in his superbowl week practices to get the players accustomed to such a long break, and that Quinn probably wouldn't do the same (he was right). So frankly, the best thing BB did was just staying the course, not panicking, but staying the course and having faith that Atlanta would eventually run out of steam and relapse into the cover 3 that Brady loves to pick apart.

Just a remarkable tale of mental toughness, faith, and football intelligence.

 

[ALP]

i still can't believe he decided that 2 TDs WITH 2 2PT conversions was the best path forward

no room for error at all if you miss an extra point

 

[archstanton543]

"2. On-side kick. Another great decision. I completely agree that if you thought you'd eventually need an on-side kick or two (this is before we got another series via the Hightower fumble), then might as well do it earlier when they are not expecting it and chances to convert are higher. The on-side kick was a good call and we caught them by surprise and had the advantage on numbers. It should have been converted. Ghost let it hit his legs while running in."

Nope. that was a terrible call.

 

[Adam Seward]

"2. On-side kick. Another great decision. I completely agree that if you thought you'd eventually need an on-side kick or two (this is before we got another series via the Hightower fumble), then might as well do it earlier when they are not expecting it and chances to convert are higher. The on-side kick was a good call and we caught them by surprise and had the advantage on numbers. It should have been converted. Ghost let it hit his legs while running in."

Nope. that was a terrible call.

Don't be a tool. Explain your arguemt against the methodical approach Bill put together.

Obviously it didn't work but the lead was nearly insurmountable being down multiple scores so had it worked, excellent. Subsequently, the possibility of the onside kick was put into their minds and on a following KO we blasted it down to the 2 and they got stopped at the 10.

A small net loss of yards between the lost onside kick and next kickoffs, compared to just kicking it normally but gaining an opportunity to regain possession.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

4. Timeouts. I feel Belichick should have called a timeout on the run after the crazy Julio catch. Atlanta ran for -1 yards and we didn't call a timeout, we should have to stop the clock. On the next play Flowers sacked Ryan and we did immediately call a timeout to stop the clock. Eventually we scored so fast we didn't need more time and infact gave them a minute. But at the time it looked like Falcons were in FG range and we might have needed another series if Falcons were two scores up.

I thought we should have called timeout too, and I'm sure it crossed BB's mind and it wasn't just because he forgot about that option.

Upon further thought, if we had called timeout, Quinn and Shanahan probably talk and decide to run a few times and kick the FG. By keeping the flow going, Shanahan didn't have time to think, just react the way he normally would.

It reminds me of the Seahawks and BB studying their sideline and deciding against it to let the pressure stay on the opponent.

i still can't believe he decided that 2 TDs WITH 2 2PT conversions was the best path forward

no room for error at all if you miss an extra point

I didn't like the call either at the time, thought we should go for it.

But thinking about it now, we still needed a FG or TD. It was either 3 TDs (and some combo of 2-point tries depending on what the Falcons did), or 2 TDs, 2 2-point conversions, and a FG, which you can have now.

At that point, you're basically evaluating the odds of scoring on 2 XPs vs. a TD on 4th and goal from long distance, and which is more likely. If you fail to convert, the game is over as you need 3 scores. If you do convert, you still need 2 more scores. If you kick the FG, you still need 2 more scores.

Based on that scenario, it makes a lot of sense. Either way you go, you need 2 more possessions. But you could tack on an extra one by failing on a low-odd chance there.