Bargain shopping: Best free agents aren't biggest names

[broadwayjoe]

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10007822

I think our Front Office knows that just about as well as anybody.

 

[signbabybrady]

not sure if he is a Bargain as there are not very many good wide outs out there this year but I really like Kevin Curtis he seems as though he fits what we look for in a wideout.

"He has what teams want, which is blazing speed. Curtis is small at 5-feet-11, 195 pounds, but he can get down the field. He wasn't used as much last season as he was when Mike Martz was the coach, but he has the tools to be a solid starter."

 

[JoeSixPat]

In the pre-new-CBA NFL it made sense to sit back and wait for the big shiny expensive free agents to be taken off the shelves and then use one's money on quality depth... though even the Pats have made some top tier moves (the signing of Colvin and the attempt to sign Mason)

However I'd caution that with the cap increases under the new CBA, many teams have a lot more money to spend. Last year this created a feeding frenzy in free agency of sorts.

At the end of the day there were more free agents taken sooner than at any time in salary cap era - in other words there were fewer free agents left after the initial frenzy - just around 100 players unsigned if I remember correctly.

This had the net effect of shrinking the pool of quality position depth greatly than in previous years, and I don't think the Patriots front office was too happy about it, or necessarilly saw it coming to the extent it did.

This year, with another big increase in the salary cap we could see a similar frenzy - or it might calm down a little - but I'd be expecting a very high volume of activity similar to last year's.

I can't say how the Patriots will react but it wouldn't surprise me if they know exactly who they want - who they expect they can get for a reasonable price - and go after them early and agressively.

I'm not expecting the same passive team we saw last year and in previous years. BB understands what's happening under the new CBA better than all of us and he will act in the best interest of the team. Under the new CBA that means being more proactive than we have in the past, in my opinion.

 

[maverick4]

I agree. The new CBA bailed out most capped-out teams, and the strategy of sitting back for bargains won't work for the Pats until several years down the road. They need to make quick, aggressive moves this offseason.

 

[Ring 6]

In the pre-new-CBA NFL it made sense to sit back and wait for the big shiny expensive free agents to be taken off the shelves and then use one's money on quality depth... though even the Pats have made some top tier moves (the signing of Colvin and the attempt to sign Mason)

However I'd caution that with the cap increases under the new CBA, many teams have a lot more money to spend. Last year this created a feeding frenzy in free agency of sorts.

At the end of the day there were more free agents taken sooner than at any time in salary cap era - in other words there were fewer free agents left after the initial frenzy - just around 100 players unsigned if I remember correctly.

This had the net effect of shrinking the pool of quality position depth greatly than in previous years, and I don't think the Patriots front office was too happy about it, or necessarilly saw it coming to the extent it did.

This year, with another big increase in the salary cap we could see a similar frenzy - or it might calm down a little - but I'd be expecting a very high volume of activity similar to last year's.

I can't say how the Patriots will react but it wouldn't surprise me if they know exactly who they want - who they expect they can get for a reasonable price - and go after them early and agressively.

I'm not expecting the same passive team we saw last year and in previous years. BB understands what's happening under the new CBA better than all of us and he will act in the best interest of the team. Under the new CBA that means being more proactive than we have in the past, in my opinion.

I think there is a real possibility that teams will run out of guys to sign before they run out of cap room. I think there is cap room out there to pay average players as much as the top of the line free agents used to get, and I think teams will hesitate to do that.
It could really create an impasse in signings. Players will be basing there wants on the money available, and teams will hesitate to blow out the current salary structure.
As an example, lets say we had Warren and Seymour, and not Jarvis green. we need a 3rd DE to backup both of them. Assume we have pretty much handled our other needs, and there really isnt any player on the market that is attractive to us. We have 12 mill in cap room, and the best player available, who is a shadow of Warren and Seymour wants to be paid more than Seymour. One argument is you have the cap room, so you can afford to pay the best guy on the market whatever he wants. (That thinking seemed to be prevalnet throughout the league in the past) But you are buying another problem, where you have raised the bar for every player on your roster, and redefined the salary structure of your team.

That is an extreme example, but when teams have this much cap room available, do they really start paying jags what they used to pay starters, or pay average starters what they used to pay all-pros, just because they can?

I think there are over a dozen teams that could afford to act like the Redskins or worse, but I dont think many, if any will choose to do so.

I would not be shocked at all if many teams leave a lot of cap room on the table this year.

 

[Ring 6]

To continue the above, and relate it to the Pats, I think bargain shopping may or may not exist, but if it does, it is only a bargain compared to THIS YEARS FA contracts, not what they have been historically.
I think smart teams like the Patriots will identify one or two top propspects and go after them hard, choosing to overpay at the top end of the food chain rather than the middle or bottom end, since overpaying may be a necessity.
I would much rather see the Pats overpay for a good player that may underperform a top dollar deal and still contirbute a lot than overpay for mid-level guys who will play like mid-level guys while being paid like upper tier guys.

It may be that success in this years FA market will not come down to finding bargains, but by recognizing prices are inflated and getting the most value and talent regardless of cost. That is if you miss by 10% on a high priced guy, you get good contributions still, but if you miss by 10% on a jag, it was a waste.

IMO, BB is all about value. Value USED to be in the middle class, that is you got more ot of your dollars by spreading them further. It may well be that value now is in the upper echelon, because the cost of that middle tier may be rising faster.

 

[solman]

I agree. The new CBA bailed out most capped-out teams, and the strategy of sitting back for bargains won't work for the Pats until several years down the road. They need to make quick, aggressive moves this offseason.

I disagree. Fielding a talented NFL team is equivalent to UNDERPAYING for your talent. Any team which approaches free agency as if there is too much money and not enough free agents to go around will OVERPAY for the talent it acquires.

Some teams ARE going to overpay this year. Some will have an itchy trigger finger. Some will sit out. All will learn from the experience and within three years (probably sooner than later) equilibrium will be restored.

Until that happens, if idiot teams give the Pats a choice of overpaying or of sitting out while the hottest players get taken, the Pats should definitely sit out. We can bargain hunt, move our cap space into future years, and bide our time. If we overpay for talent, we will wind up putting less talented teams on the field, and the dynasty will be over.

 

[solman]

It could really create an impasse in signings. Players will be basing there wants on the money available, and teams will hesitate to blow out the current salary structure.

Agents will (correctly) place an emphasis on getting their players signed to deals before other signings and the draft reduce the pool of suitors for their clients. The market will (as usual) be set by players who have strong levels of interest from multiple teams. Everything else will follow from there.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I just want to drop in and say....

Did I NAIL the attractiveness of the franchise tag this year, or what? (NFL.com has another story on how many teams have used it... as predicted.)

PFnV

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

not sure if he is a Bargain as there are not very many good wide outs out there this year but I really like Kevin Curtis he seems as though he fits what we look for in a wideout.

"He has what teams want, which is blazing speed. Curtis is small at 5-feet-11, 195 pounds, but he can get down the field. He wasn't used as much last season as he was when Mike Martz was the coach, but he has the tools to be a solid starter."

Bobby Engram, would be a great depth addition.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I just want to drop in and say....

Did I NAIL the attractiveness of the franchise tag this year, or what? (NFL.com has another story on how many teams have used it... as predicted.)

PFnV

That was commonsense with the depleted free agent market and with 19 teams having 20 million or more to spend.

Who would you spend the money on if you didn't franchise?

Welcome to the new NFL.

 

[tombonneau]

Getting back to the FAs listed in the piece, I'd like any of Curtis, Steinbach, or Hamlin. Preferably a combo of two of them. I really love Hamlin and wouldn't mind seeing him displace Wilson at FS.

Steinbach would be a killer addition to the interior line, but unfortunately I could see someone paying top OL dollar for him, which is not the Pats MO when it comes to the interior of the line.

And Curtis of course fits the Pats mold. Only question is, is he starting caliber WR or merely a very good #3? Problem with the Pats is they have plenty of guys who are good #3s and one guy who is a solid #2 (Caldwell). So if NE does make a move for a WR, I'd prefer they go after a guy who is a proven #1wr.

 

[Mike the Brit]

I think there is a real possibility that teams will run out of guys to sign before they run out of cap room. I think there is cap room out there to pay average players as much as the top of the line free agents used to get, and I think teams will hesitate to do that.
It could really create an impasse in signings. Players will be basing there wants on the money available, and teams will hesitate to blow out the current salary structure.
As an example, lets say we had Warren and Seymour, and not Jarvis green. we need a 3rd DE to backup both of them. Assume we have pretty much handled our other needs, and there really isnt any player on the market that is attractive to us. We have 12 mill in cap room, and the best player available, who is a shadow of Warren and Seymour wants to be paid more than Seymour. One argument is you have the cap room, so you can afford to pay the best guy on the market whatever he wants. (That thinking seemed to be prevalnet throughout the league in the past) But you are buying another problem, where you have raised the bar for every player on your roster, and redefined the salary structure of your team.

That is an extreme example, but when teams have this much cap room available, do they really start paying jags what they used to pay starters, or pay average starters what they used to pay all-pros, just because they can?

I think there are over a dozen teams that could afford to act like the Redskins or worse, but I dont think many, if any will choose to do so.

I would not be shocked at all if many teams leave a lot of cap room on the table this year.

An excellent point about not upsetting the salary structure, AJ -- I completely agree with you.

How will new circumstances affect the Patriots?

It's as well to review the Patriots's record. In the off-season, they have been confirmed bottom feeders. With the exception of Colvin, I can't remember the Patriots signing anyone on whom there wasn't some kind of a knock. Even quite expensive free agents/trade targets weren't dominant players with their team, as I recall (Rodney had been but was injured in San Diego, Dillon had well-publicised difficulties, Starks had been injured (I think), Beisel wasn't a valued starter, etc.) The typical Patriots pick-up has been thought to be too injury-prone (Caldwell), over the hill (Brian Cox -- or even retired, like Seau) or couldn't command a starting spot in a talented line-up (Vrabel). The Patriots like to gamble and, although they have had some success, there have been a lot of failures too (Beisel, Starks, Brown, Terrell, Sullivan, Bailey, etc., etc.)

I don't see that basic approach changing -- but will the availability of more money in free agency make it impossible? I doubt that. Salaries will increase overall, of course, but many of the players signed in the past were guys who simply could not find roster spots (Jaffney) or weren't able to command starters' places. Teams will still have to cut such players/or be happy to get modest draft compensation for them. We haven't competed that much, on the other hand, when teams have been "forced sellers".

I look to the Patriots to continue to offer lower-round draft picks for players (as they did for Davis, Bailey, Gabriel) who are marginal to their current teams and to scan the wires very closely when cuts are made during training camp.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think there is a real possibility that teams will run out of guys to sign before they run out of cap room. I think there is cap room out there to pay average players as much as the top of the line free agents used to get, and I think teams will hesitate to do that.
It could really create an impasse in signings. Players will be basing there wants on the money available, and teams will hesitate to blow out the current salary structure.
As an example, lets say we had Warren and Seymour, and not Jarvis green. we need a 3rd DE to backup both of them. Assume we have pretty much handled our other needs, and there really isnt any player on the market that is attractive to us. We have 12 mill in cap room, and the best player available, who is a shadow of Warren and Seymour wants to be paid more than Seymour. One argument is you have the cap room, so you can afford to pay the best guy on the market whatever he wants. (That thinking seemed to be prevalnet throughout the league in the past) But you are buying another problem, where you have raised the bar for every player on your roster, and redefined the salary structure of your team.

That is an extreme example, but when teams have this much cap room available, do they really start paying jags what they used to pay starters, or pay average starters what they used to pay all-pros, just because they can?

I think there are over a dozen teams that could afford to act like the Redskins or worse, but I dont think many, if any will choose to do so.

I would not be shocked at all if many teams leave a lot of cap room on the table this year.

you seem to be agreeing with me and raising other points.

The bottom line is that this is a new paradigm in the NFL.

BB & Pioli excelled on getting the most out of a very tight cap - other teams fell on their faces.

Now with the cap - at least for a time - being a non issue, overpaying is not the cap trap it once was - at least not at the present time.

Owners of course don't want to spend money frivilously, but that's a different matter.

When it comes to the cap, the Patriots, and quite a few other teams, can afford to be active and agressive - for the right players.

Thus far I'm not sure if BB has adapted to this present reality as he still seems to be operating based on the old system that had them up against the cap, with only an incremental increase expected for next year. That's not the case.

Eventually salaries will catch up to the cap, but its not going to happen overnight.

 

[Rob0729]

Getting back to the FAs listed in the piece, I'd like any of Curtis, Steinbach, or Hamlin. Preferably a combo of two of them. I really love Hamlin and wouldn't mind seeing him displace Wilson at FS.

Steinbach would be a killer addition to the interior line, but unfortunately I could see someone paying top OL dollar for him, which is not the Pats MO when it comes to the interior of the line.

And Curtis of course fits the Pats mold. Only question is, is he starting caliber WR or merely a very good #3? Problem with the Pats is they have plenty of guys who are good #3s and one guy who is a solid #2 (Caldwell). So if NE does make a move for a WR, I'd prefer they go after a guy who is a proven #1wr.

I would love to have Curtis and Hamlin too. Hamlin seems to be flying under the radar a bit. He has the potential to be the next Rodney in our defense if we signed him.

As for Curtis, I think he is starting quality but he just played behind two of the greatest WRs of this era in Holt and Bruce. When he stepped in for Bruce in 2005, he was outstanding. He doesn't fit into Linehan's vertical offense and his production suffered this past year.

Steinbauch seems like a luxary pick since our interior o-line seems to be all set and very well paid. I don't see any chance of us spending any type of money on an interior lineman.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

That was commonsense with the depleted free agent market and with 19 teams having 20 million or more to spend.

Who would you spend the money on if you didn't franchise?

Welcome to the new NFL.

Gotcha. I had this whole evolved model that took into account for the relative value of the cap being a trailing indicator of league inflation, moreso than in the case of a given year's free agency crop... which led me to talk on and on at length, well before commonsense kicked in elsewhere, punctuated by the thoughtful catchphrase "Welcome to the new NFL." I guess that's one of the benefits of "overthinking" - sometimes you get the jump on "common sense".

But hell, what are we, the media? It's not that important who sifts through it first... just like the "first on scene" news guys, for every thing I've guessed right at, I'm sure I've guessed wrong "first" too.

Random egotistical crankiness tonight on my part, no offense.

PFnV