Atlanta's Defense

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I'm not sure I'm buying into that a whole lot. In that span they allowed KC and NO to hang 29 and 32 respectively. Arizona, LA, SF and Carolina they held into the teens credit to them for that.

KC had a pick 6 and a fake punt TD, along with a game-winning pick 2. I wouldn't exactly blame Atlanta's D. Impressively, Alex Smith had a great game, yet Atlanta kept their offense out of the end zone relatively speaking.

The Saints put up most of their points in the 4th quarter after being down big. Still counts against the D, but does make me wonder how much of that was Atlanta losing focus or counting the game won. Maybe their prevent D stinks. Who knows the real story there.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Ethanga62890]

KC had a pick 6 and a fake punt TD, along with a game-winning pick 2. I wouldn't exactly blame Atlanta's D. Impressively, Alex Smith had a great game, yet Atlanta kept their offense out of the end zone relatively speaking.

The Saints put up most of their points in the 4th quarter after being down big. Still counts against the D, but does make me wonder how much of that was Atlanta losing focus or counting the game won. Maybe their prevent D stinks. Who knows the real story there.

Regards,
Chris

never heard a fanbase not ***** about prevent d lol

 

[Rivered082]

 

[FourierSeries]

Isn't Football Outsiders giving NE a 60% chance of winning this game? I don't think that's something Falcons fans should be using to prop up their team, as the Pats have been the superior team when using their DVOA metric (despite Brady being absent throughout the first 4 games.)

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Falcons defense may be susceptible to Tom Brady and Pats offense

[Click Here For Full Entry]​

Two years ago, several days prior to Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots quietly expressed confidence that they’d light up the Seahawks’ historically strong defense. This Falcons group isn’t nearly as talented. Brady and Co. won’t change their preparation, but will definitely have some flashbacks during the process.

Of course, the plan and the execution are entirely different entities, and the Patriots have to methodically deconstruct a Falcons defense that outplays its rankings (27th in points, 25th in total yards, 28th in passing yards) by a considerable margin. They’re extremely fast, especially over the middle with linebackers Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen. It might be the fastest defense the Patriots will see all year. The Falcons also swarm to the ball and play with a ton of effort to offset their general lack of zone execution.

And though the pass rush mostly has been a one-man operation with defensive end Vic Beasley, who led the NFL with 15.5 sacks and will go one-on-one with right tackle Marcus Cannon, the Falcons have applied more pressure in the playoffs with defensive linemen Ra’Shede Hageman, Tyson Jackson and Grady Jarrett. However, the Patriots offensive line is worlds better than the Swiss cheese units fielded by the Seahawks and Packers.

The Falcons also blitz a bit more than the Seahawks, and they don’t usually disguise it too well.

Though Atlanta primarily plays zone, it mixed in a few more man assignments when it got a big lead against the Packers. Because the Falcons are athletic enough to switch it up on the fly, the Patriots have to ensure they’ve got a plan for that scenario.

These Pats are equipped to expose some of the flaws in the Falcons’ zone looks. Notably, because they use Allen as a single-high safety, the Falcons are vulnerable up the seam, and Brady probably will be able to look off Allen to open certain routes.

The Falcons’ greatest weakness has been against lateral routes because they struggle passing off receivers from zone to zone. That’s an understandable flaw because they’re overloaded with players in their first and second year in the league, and zone awareness takes years to master.

So the Patriots can use combo routes to create confusion in their zones. The Patriots can actively cause chaos with the Falcons’ communication. The Falcons are also susceptible to big plays against multiple crossing routes over the middle. Again, it boils down to a lack of experience.

The Patriots’ strategy with their ground game will be interesting as well. Because Jones and Campbell are relatively smaller linebackers with exceptional speed, will the Patriots try to match that speed with Dion Lewis or counter it with LeGarrette Blount?​

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Jeff Howe is absolutely right. I don’t think the Falcons regular season numbers are completely indicative of the talent they possess on defense. And with the success that they've had with their draft picks, I would expect them to become a top-tier defense within the next couple of seasons.

Their greatest asset is their elite speed and the number hybrid players who can play multiple positions on defense. The Falcons have an explosive pass rush that has been very effective against good offensive lines in the playoffs, so the Patriots need to negate that with a quick passing game and beat the Falcons with yards after the catch.
I am confident our offensive line will still give Brady the protection he needs, and we will find the right mismatches to exploit.

 

[Rivered082]

Here's another fun fact for you DVOA folks: only 2 teams since realignment in 2002 that were first in DVOA won the Super Bowl. The 2002 Bucs, and 2013 Seahawks.

 

[mgcolby]

KC had a pick 6 and a fake punt TD, along with a game-winning pick 2. I wouldn't exactly blame Atlanta's D. Impressively, Alex Smith had a great game, yet Atlanta kept their offense out of the end zone relatively speaking.

The Saints put up most of their points in the 4th quarter after being down big. Still counts against the D, but does make me wonder how much of that was Atlanta losing focus or counting the game won. Maybe their prevent D stinks. Who knows the real story there.

Regards,
Chris

Thanks I forgot about that in the KC game. Still not buying their defense though. And if their Special Teams allow Jules and Dion to run around like they did Hester they will be hosed.

 

[bbobbo]

Here's another fun fact for you DVOA folks: only 2 teams since realignment in 2002 that were first in DVOA won the Super Bowl. The 2002 Bucs, and 2013 Seahawks.

why cut off at 2002? is there something magical about realignment?

from 1989-2001, the top rated DVOA team won the super bowl 8 out of 13 times:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Building a Super Bowl Winner (Part I)



1994 would have been a more logical cutoff year since that was the first year of the salary cap. even from 1994-2001, the top DVOA team won 3 out of 8 times.

 

[The Brandon Five]

why cut off at 2002? is there something magical about realignment?

from 1989-2001, the top rated DVOA team won the super bowl 8 out of 13 times:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Building a Super Bowl Winner (Part I)



1994 would have been a more logical cutoff year since that was the first year of the salary cap. even from 1994-2001, the top DVOA team won 3 out of 8 times.

Not only that, but the Pats were involved in the two times since 2002 that the #1 did not win. Once as the victim (2007) and once as the victor (2014). So, when the #1 actually makes it to the SB they are 2-2. Seems like being #1 actually acts as more of a predictor of not even making it to the big game.

Winners since 2002:
#1 - 2
#2 - 1
#3 - 0
#4 - 5
#6 - 1
#7 - 1
#8 - 2
#12 - 1
#14 - 1

(Those last two hurt the most).

You will note that a #3 has not won the SB since 2002. Atlanta was #3 in DVOA in 2016 so there's that.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Not sure what Giardi thinks is so telling about that quote. Any guesses?

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

KC had a pick 6 and a fake punt TD, along with a game-winning pick 2. I wouldn't exactly blame Atlanta's D. Impressively, Alex Smith had a great game, yet Atlanta kept their offense out of the end zone relatively speaking.

The Saints put up most of their points in the 4th quarter after being down big. Still counts against the D, but does make me wonder how much of that was Atlanta losing focus or counting the game won. Maybe their prevent D stinks. Who knows the real story there.

Regards,
Chris

All true but the best O of all time had time to at least kick a FG and failed after the 2 point INT by Eric Berry...

 

[PScottman]

I'd be very curious if Quinn has the stones to completely change it up. They have an all-world offense. There is no arguing that fact.

Would he place complete trust in that offense and say, "I've seen the Patriots tear up an expected defense (and our schematic one BTW). They're a preparation-heavy, game plan team based on research and knowledge. We're going to hit them with something they've never seen from us."? Kind of what the Steelers did a few years ago where they went away from their standard zone blitz scheme and went press man, got a lead, and made the Patriots play catch up to no avail as their adjustments took too long to impact the outcome.

It would take a massive amount of chutzpah, but it's been successful before - element of surprise, hope to get a lead, then ride the momentum of a young team that has been one of those "once we get a lead we pour it on" types?

The flip side of this of course is that the Patriots are probably the best "ah, thats what they're doing." team in the NFL. In fact, I remain convinced that they are almost purposeful in that light - using the jab so to speak to set up the combination later on as you see the type of offense and defense the other guy across from you is employing. It's exactly the thing that drives the game day thread people nuts because it's not attack, attack, attack...it's rope a dope....THEN attack especially on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[goheels22002]

Do you think Atlanta's propensity for pressing WRs will influence Floyd's roster status?

No. Forget Floyd. Good luck pressing five wide formations in a hurry up offense.

 

[goheels22002]

That's exactly what I said. The difference is I looked at their games and only a few were blowouts, and in some of those they allowed quick scores. You can probably only attribute 25 points to prevent D working this year, so discounting all the fourth quarter points when they aren't in prevent D is absurd.

Bad defenses also have a habit of giving up points in the fourth quarter to lose games- something Atlanta did several times. I guess those points don't matter since they happened in the fourth quarter.

This confidence in a defense that gives up "garbage time" points by Atlanta fans is utter nonsense. Do they really believe there is such a thing as garbage time against the New England Patriots?

Giving up points in the 4th quarter is playing with fire - Brady is the master at comebacks. Anybody remember being down 10 in the 4th quarter against Seattle, or two 14-point deficits to the Ravens during the last SB run?

 

[Uptown]

ATL has the worst Red Zone DEF in the NFL..

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

 

[RobertWeathers]

Not sure what Giardi thinks is so telling about that quote. Any guesses?

For a defense to be considered great, it's all about making plays in those "gotta have it" moments. See 2003 Patriots as an example.

So while I think he respects the ATL D in his estimation they are not battle tested.

 

[goheels22002]

Total disagree. A prevent D is designed to stop the quick score. The over the top 50 yard bomb. When you are up 20+ points on a team going into the 4th quarter the number one thing is don't get beat deep. The under stuff is open all day. Atlanta D ranking by Quarters
1st Q 10th
2nd Q 17th
3rd Q 11th
4th Q 31st
So the 27th ranked D is very misleading is all we are saying.

"prevent defense" is a lazy description of how a defense plays. I hate that term. It so 1970s. What defense does the Falcons use in the 4th quarter that would make their ranking next to last? Cover 2? Cover 3? Whatever they're doing, it sucks.

The Falcons are playing a team that knows how to win playoff games, actually the most ever. If you think that defense can get away with not playing 60 solid minutes of football, you are nuts. Watch the Ravens - Patriots 2014 divisional round game:

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'd be very curious if Quinn has the stones to completely change it up. They have an all-world offense. There is no arguing that fact.

Would he place complete trust in that offense and say, "I've seen the Patriots tear up an expected defense (and our schematic one BTW). They're a preparation-heavy, game plan team based on research and knowledge. We're going to hit them with something they've never seen from us."? Kind of what the Steelers did a few years ago where they went away from their standard zone blitz scheme and went press man, got a lead, and made the Patriots play catch up to no avail as their adjustments took too long to impact the outcome.

It would take a massive amount of chutzpah, but it's been successful before - element of surprise, hope to get a lead, then ride the momentum of a young team that has been one of those "once we get a lead we pour it on" types?

The flip side of this of course is that the Patriots are probably the best "ah, thats what they're doing." team in the NFL. In fact, I remain convinced that they are almost purposeful in that light - using the jab so to speak to set up the combination later on as you see the type of offense and defense the other guy across from you is employing. It's exactly the thing that drives the game day thread people nuts because it's not attack, attack, attack...it's rope a dope....THEN attack especially on the defensive side of the ball.

I don't think the ATL D has the personnel or experience to pull that off.

I think he's a good coach but Quinn's D is what it is.