As of today (2/10), who do you *want* the Pats to draft first?

[mike_usagisan]

graham is going to be there at 4, and i like the pick

barring a run on OT, we can do OK at the top of 2, or even trade back up.........and i know this thread is "right now", but there is no way we don't address OT in FA, either.......so not reaching for an OT at 4 has gotta be guaranteed

trading down to 10-14 somewhere still likely gets an OT......but I don't want to see them take an OT that projects to G, either.......I'd almost rather see one of the 2nd round OTs that actually projects to an OT but needs work......i;d be ok with a college OT who projects to G later in the draft, like a Zabel in the 2nd.........but gotta get an OT or preferably 2 in FA......

I like Graham because I think he takes care of a big need and is there for the longterm. That said, it seems a lot of people are saying that the dropoff between Graham and other D-linemen isn't that great and they'll be available later. So maybe it makes sense to go for someone good who won't be there later?

 

[Pape]

you're looking at this in a vacuum......OL CAN be addressed both via FA and in later rounds; i fully expect a 2 to be used at OL

barring a trade down, there isn't an OT who really projects to be a starting OT who is worthy of the 4 pick........you don't take 10-12 talent at 4 because of need; you have a top 5 pick you have to take top 5 talent; otherwise trade down

Its a big picture view.

Best case scenario, we get Abdul Carter. Say he does as well as TJ Watt, top of the line player... Gets you 19 sacks a year... What does that net you? In Pittsburgh, its gotten them none and done in Watts four playoff games...

Set the line this year, what does that get you? Protection for your QB. Right now, you have a Top Ten QB... Top 10 in Sack percentage, 14th in yards lost/sacks, Top 10 in int percentage... All that in 12 games

So maybe, thinking big picture here, what would be more beneficial for the team?

Its okay, you can say it...

Fixing the Offensive Line.

You guys worry about "value" waaaayyyy too much. Too worried about what "other" people think. I dont get the need for the reassurance of talking heads saying "you made the right pick" when all that really matters is making the right pick for your team.

 

[lancerman]

Its a big picture view.

Best case scenario, we get Abdul Carter. Say he does as well as TJ Watt, top of the line player... Gets you 19 sacks a year... What does that get you? In Pittsburgh, its gotten them one and done in Watts four playoff games...

Set the line this year, what does that get you? Protection for your QB. Right now, you have a Top Ten QB... Top 10 in Sack percentage, 14th in yards lost/sacks, Top 10 in int percentage... All that in 12 games

So maybe, thinking big picture here, what would be more beneficial for the team?

Its okay, you can say it...

Fixing the Offensive Line.

Big picture, reaching on one guy who may or may not pan out and has a lower floor is not going to fix the offensive line with all the holes we have. It helps a little. But you aren't revamping this line in one draft.

You draft at the top for guys who you think have the best chance of being contributors and you use free agency to fill holes for need.

The guy you draft isn't going to be Joe Thomas, and we've seen what happens to teams when Joe Thomas is on an otherwise bad line. Some of the worst NFL teams in history.

It's not a one player fix. So reaching and taking a bigger gamble is not big picture, it's just potentially burning the pick when a guy who has less risk is in your grasp.

 

[Pape]

Big picture, reaching on one guy who may or may not pan out and has a lower floor is not going to fix the offensive line with all the holes we have. It helps a little. But you aren't revamping this line in one draft.

according to you. I dont see taking a top ten player in the draft at 4 as a reach. If you can drop a few spots to get him, fine. But do not set yourself up for failure by trading back to the middle of the pack, hoping your guy is still there.

You draft at the top for guys who you think have the best chance of being contributors and you use free agency to fill holes for need.

That philosophy works. On teams that are competitive. We aren't competitive. We literally got Building block 1 last year. Its time to get the second block.

The guy you draft isn't going to be Joe Thomas, and we've seen what happens to teams when Joe Thomas is on an otherwise bad line. Some of the worst NFL teams in history.

Every single draft pick is a crap shoot. In 2014 Houston thought Jadeveon Clowney was going to be an all world defensive end. How'd that turn out? Or Chase Young? washington snagged him with the 2nd overall pick instead of drafting for need... Could have had Justin Herbert... and in the mean time, Chase Young is on his 3rd team already...

It's not a one player fix. So reaching and taking a bigger gamble is not big picture, it's just potentially burning the pick when a guy who has less risk is in your grasp.

Correct. Its not a one player fix. But you got to start somewhere. And thats with foundational pieces.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Upgrades are needed across the Board.
The only players with safe roster spots should be Gonzalez and Maye.
Everything else can and should be evaluated to be upgraded.

The theory that only two are safe is utterly ridiculous, and yet people keep saying it over and over. Just stop it. Its just not true. First, we cannot empty the roster and bring in 51 new players. Second, we have contracts and values that make plenty of players safe.

Christian Barmore is safe, even with the health issue. He is not getting traded or cut. The dead cap would be $26 million.

Mike Owenu is safe with a $27 million dead cap hit.

Kyle Dugger is safe with a $23 million dead cap hit.

Hunter Henry is safe.

Devon Godchaux is safe this year. His salary is $8 million and dead cap is $10. He is worth keeping for the $2 million.

Rhamondre Stevenson is safe with his new contract. His cap is managble and he had a horrible year, yet the talent is there and the foolishness can be fixed.

Antonio Gibson was a huge bright spot. We would be stupid to let him go.

Cole Strange is safe with a salary of $4 million and dead cap of about $2. When healthy, he has been a decent starter. He should be healthy now and may transition to center. You don't dump a player like that.

Brenden Schooler is a probowl ST. He is safe.

Marcus Jones is on his rookie contract and has not shown a lot, but has had flashes. You don't cut or trade a guy like that.

Joe Cardona is safe. We have to have a LS and its stupid to spend money to replace him.

Caedan Wallace is safe. We don't know what we have in him and he was the 68th overall pick. He is not going anywhere.

Layden Robinson is safe. We don't know what we have in him and he was the 103rd overall pick. He is not going anywhere.

Jeremiah Pharms just signed a 2 year extension. He is safe.

I am not going to spend more time going through the whole roster, but there are plenty of others who you don't let go because of value and the inability to upgrade/replace them right now. This is not Madden and its not fantasy football. You cannot just ship out the whole roster. Yes, a huge portion of the roster needs to be upgraded and rebuilt, but it takes more than one offseason to do it. It was supposed to start last year under Mayo/Wolf, but they only nailed one draft pick out of eight. That does not mean the other seven will be busts. Some may need time to develop. Our free agency last year was abysmal. Our trades were nonexistent. Vrabel said he will build the roster though the draft, free agency, and trades. That should make the Pats competitive in 3 years if, and that is a big if, they get all three right. We have gotten all three wrong consistently for four years, but to say just 2 are safe is silly.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Hopefully the Patriots can sign a free agent like Ronnie Stanley or Alaric Jackson.
That would negate the need to draft an OT (Will Campbell) and then select one of the others (Travis Hunter/Mason Graham/Abdul Carter).

Right now I'm leaning towards Carter, slightly.


If the Patriots don't sign one of those two or trade for a LT, then I would prefer Campbell.

He may not be the BPA, but the team cannot continue to ignore that position.

I just don't think the Pats are picking Campbell at 4. Peter Skoronski is the perfect example as to why. He was the best LT in the draft last year and got killed this year in Tennessee. Why? Short arms. The T-Rex memes on him were brutal. He made the switch to guard and is now stable. Campbell may be a similar story. If his arms come in under 33 inches, the Pats have to be content with drafting a left guard at #4 overall. Did you see Joe Thuney get beat consistently in the Super Bowl? That is what happens when a guard plays LT. His arms are not long enough for the initial punch. Instead, he is getting punched and pushed. We could use an upgrade to LG, but Strange, Robinson, and Sow can play that position this year. The tackles are the biggest priority. If there is any question Campbell may have to play guard, you pass on him at 4. One of Hunter, Carter, and Graham will be available. There is no shame or risk in picking one of them.

 

[lancerman]

according to you. I dont see taking a top ten player in the draft at 4 as a reach. If you can drop a few spots to get him, fine. But do not set yourself up for failure by trading back to the middle of the pack, hoping your guy is still there.

That philosophy works. On teams that are competitive. We aren't competitive. We literally got Building block 1 last year. Its time to get the second block.

Every single draft pick is a crap shoot. In 2014 Houston thought Jadeveon Clowney was going to be an all world defensive end. How'd that turn out? Or Chase Young? washington snagged him with the 2nd overall pick instead of drafting for need... Could have had Justin Herbert... and in the mean time, Chase Young is on his 3rd team already...

Correct. Its not a one player fix. But you got to start somewhere. And thats with foundational pieces.

Every draft has inherent risk. The advantage at the top of the draft is the minimization of that risk. There’s guts there with high ceiling and high floors where at worst they might just be an average solid contributor.

Clowney is a good example, but not for the reasons you are using. He was a multi time pro bowler and a 2nd team All Pro. Yes he didn’t become a GOAT candidate at his position, but his floor was “very good and someone you are happy to have”. Especially for the length of his rookie contract which was the value Houston got in getting him. Then they traded him at the end for Mingo, Martin and a third round pick.

Quality play at the position in the cheap and got solid assets before they had to pay him anything.

The mistake you can make is reaching and betting it all on guys with lower floors because you want them to be the answer, and the consensus right now is that there will be someone at #4 that has a much higher chance of success of being a contributor even in their worst case scenario than one of the lineman.

Now if you want to trade into the teens and get an extra pick somewhere and more bites at the apple while someone else gets the prospect with the better chance of being a contributor, fine. You are at least adding chances for success elsewhere. But there is no world where you use reach on the 4th when almost every analysis has several tackles all being of similar caliber in the fringe top 10’s and mid teens

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Only so many ways it can go. I am pretty certain at least Cam Ward will go in the top 3. So that leaves 2 other draft picks. If no team drafts Sanders, then yes Carter and Hunter will be gone, but then that opens an avenue for the #4 pick to be traded down to a team who wants to take Sanders. Conversely, if Sanders does go in the top 3, then one of Hunter or Carter will be there at 4.

Its not really what i want, but if sanders was there at 4 i would be almost certain there is somebody in the 6-10 range that are gonna be hot for him. That COULD work out best for us long term who knows. But most likely we are best off with carter/ hunter at 4

 

[yukon cornelius]

Its a big picture view.

Best case scenario, we get Abdul Carter. Say he does as well as TJ Watt, top of the line player... Gets you 19 sacks a year... What does that net you? In Pittsburgh, its gotten them none and done in Watts four playoff games...

Set the line this year, what does that get you? Protection for your QB. Right now, you have a Top Ten QB... Top 10 in Sack percentage, 14th in yards lost/sacks, Top 10 in int percentage... All that in 12 games

So maybe, thinking big picture here, what would be more beneficial for the team?

Its okay, you can say it...

Fixing the Offensive Line.

You guys worry about "value" waaaayyyy too much. Too worried about what "other" people think. I dont get the need for the reassurance of talking heads saying "you made the right pick" when all that really matters is making the right pick for your team.

still in a vacuum....you're making it sound like the #4 is the only way this team can get better

there's lots of draft picks.....and FA....the oline must be addressed, yes......agreed

there is NO "one guy" at the top of this draft that is going to fix, or even anchor, this OL.......you've got a bunch of "maybes" with questions.....starting talent, but not likely at OT.........interior OL isn't a huge issue, and there's guys that can be had in round 2

if you are set on one of the top OT's that can actually play OT at some point, then you don't pick them at 4.....you trade down and can still get one mid-1st.....if you look at OT in this draft, though......the better options that will likely stay on the outside in the NFL are all going to be later in the draft, and doesn't sound like many of them are plug & play.....this is a deep OT draft, just not at the top

 

[lancerman]

Btw new big NFL rumor is that Stafford to Giants is a possibility. If that happens, it's a huge blow to what we can do with the 4th overall.

 

[yukon cornelius]

according to you. I dont see taking a top ten player in the draft at 4 as a reach. If you can drop a few spots to get him, fine. But do not set yourself up for failure by trading back to the middle of the pack, hoping your guy is still there.

That philosophy works. On teams that are competitive. We aren't competitive. We literally got Building block 1 last year. Its time to get the second block.

Every single draft pick is a crap shoot. In 2014 Houston thought Jadeveon Clowney was going to be an all world defensive end. How'd that turn out? Or Chase Young? washington snagged him with the 2nd overall pick instead of drafting for need... Could have had Justin Herbert... and in the mean time, Chase Young is on his 3rd team already...

Correct. Its not a one player fix. But you got to start somewhere. And thats with foundational pieces.

maybe Banks fits that bill, a lot depends on the combine.......but a lot of folks are projecting him at G eventually, due to height/arm length/footspeed........the guys that truly project to OT in terms of height/arm length/etc are all going to go later

 

[Love The Drake]

Btw new big NFL rumor is that Stafford to Giants is a possibility. If that happens, it's a huge blow to what we can do with the 4th overall.

It could,

Thank thefraud, Mayo

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Some people think of our "needs" in terms of positions. I think about it differently. Maye and Gonzo (and Barmore if healthy) are the only players I think anyone here should give the slightest of ****s about whether they're on the roster in 3 years. Maybe Keion White. I don't think there are any other players on the roster who project to be high-end starting caliber players 2-3 years from now barring huge leaps from some of the recent picks who don't look like they're on that trajectory right now.

IMO, the biggest "need" we have is for foundational players at literally any position. We don't have any foundational players that project to be guys you can actually build around. With a blank slate like that I'm really not worried about any specific position. Obviously other than taking another QB there's no position that we don't need in the bigger picture. I hope we make progress next year and I'd love to be one of those 1-year turnaround stories, but I'm not building the team chasing that. My priority is landing guys that have the best chance to be elite talents in a couple of seasons on their rookie deals. The draft is already kind of a crap shoot and I'm not stacking the odds even more against me by trying to force it at one specific position even though I like the player less.

I'd love if LT was the BPA but I really just don't see it here. I'm very hard pressed to see anyone who thinks any of the OTs aren't a step down in caliber of prospect from Hunter/Carter/Graham.

 

[Grogan14]

Best non qb player available or trade down

 

[TommyD4207]

You are more optimistic in this class than I am. I feel like the best LT this year would have been the 6th OT last year. I hope they can bring in a big but at LT in FA and then grab 1 or 2 developmental OTs.

Oh, don't get me wrong, there are no Joe Alts in this draft.
I'm not saying these are going to be world beaters at tackle, I don't think any of them are - but I think there are 5 or 6 that can be in that 'perfectly serviceable for 2 contracts'.

Which, by the way, is an incredible improvement over what we have now. Average starter is better than what we got at all 5 positions last year.

 

[TommyD4207]

Maybe fringe top 10, and there's usually another in the next spot or two two spots. And it's almost never the same guy. There's like 4-5 lineman in the 9 to 18 range.

Carter is consistently 1 or 2.

Carter is being overrated as the top EDGE of this class, honestly. He's just a really good EDGE that you can find in the top 15 of any draft. He's not Lawrence Taylor.

 

[dliverey44]

Oh, don't get me wrong, there are no Joe Alts in this draft.
I'm not saying these are going to be world beaters at tackle, I don't think any of them are - but I think there are 5 or 6 that can be in that 'perfectly serviceable for 2 contracts'.

Which, by the way, is an incredible improvement over what we have now. Average starter is better than what we got at all 5 positions last year.

That is fair and I agree with that.

 

[yukon cornelius]

Oh, don't get me wrong, there are no Joe Alts in this draft.
I'm not saying these are going to be world beaters at tackle, I don't think any of them are - but I think there are 5 or 6 that can be in that 'perfectly serviceable for 2 contracts'.

Which, by the way, is an incredible improvement over what we have now. Average starter is better than what we got at all 5 positions last year.

and it doesn't seem like the top few rated OTs (based on a conglomerate of pre-draft ranks) are those guys........to me, it looks like the best OT prospects, in terms of guys that have the measurables to play OT in today's NFL, are the guys in the 3/4-8/9 or so spots, depending on who's ranks you look at.......Banks & Campbell, both of who seem to be the tops of most lists, both seem better suited to play interior.........it seems like barring a huge run, that they can move down in the 1st, select 4 & move bac up into 1st, or even go into Day 2 and still find a 'perfectly serviceable' OT

 

[TommyD4207]

and it doesn't seem like the top few rated OTs (based on a conglomerate of pre-draft ranks) are those guys........to me, it looks like the best OT prospects, in terms of guys that have the measurables to play OT in today's NFL, are the guys in the 3/4-8/9 or so spots, depending on who's ranks you look at.......Banks & Campbell, both of who seem to be the tops of most lists, both seem better suited to play interior.........it seems like barring a huge run, that they can move down in the 1st, select 4 & move bac up into 1st, or even go into Day 2 and still find a 'perfectly serviceable' OT

Even the ones with short arms will be able to play tackle, it will just limit how good they are at the position.

You're not wrong though, I think you'll be able to get a guy at pick 36 that will be just as good as one in the top 10. And zero of them are worth pick #4.

 

[yukon cornelius]

Even the ones with short arms will be able to play tackle, it will just limit how good they are at the position.

You're not wrong though, I think you'll be able to get a guy at pick 36 that will be just as good as one in the top 10. And zero of them are worth pick #4.

and if you're going to pick a guy with less than ideal measureables, who's best play is interior, there's guys like zabel who can be had down the list, too.......and there's true projects with major upside like pierce who is way down the list