Article on Patriots' Elite Man-Match Cover1 Defensive Scheme

[DropKickFlutie]

Last year the Pats' D had a few rough games:

- 37 points allowed to Baltimore
- 28 points allowed to Houston
- 27 points allowed to Miami

Every other game they were either very good or utterly dominant. So let's just focus on these three games.

First, the Baltimore game. 37 points allowed is rough, no matter the opponent. But much *less* rough considering the quality of the Baltimore offense last year.

Baltimore averaged 33.2 points a game, so NE allowed just over a field goal more to the Ravens than they averaged per game last year. And of those 37 points, 7 came on a defensive score for the Ravens, so the Pats' D "only" allowed 30 points in that game.

Moreover, Baltimore gained just 372 yards against the Pats, and they averaged 415 yards a game during the season (including playoffs).

So all things considered, the Patriots' D played better than the average defense did against the Ravens. Still not their best game, obviously, but not as bad as it might look initially.

Second, the Houston game. Houston averaged 23.6 points a game, so NE allowed 4.4 points more to the Texans than they averaged per game. But on a yards basis, the Pats allowed just 276 yards to Houston, and they averaged 366 per game. One of Houston's scoring drives, they got the ball at the Patriots' 21. That's almost an automatic 3 points for Houston right there.

Again, not their best game, but not as bad as it appears at first.

Third, the Dolphins game. I don't really have much good to say about this one. Miami averaged just 19.1 points a game and NE allowed 27. Miami averaged 310 yards a game and NE allowed them to rack up 389. The Patriots finally took a lead late and then the D coughed it up as Fitzpatrick drove them down the field for the winning score. Allowing 27 points at home, with the #2 seed and a first-round bye on the line, to this Dolphins team...just awful. No two ways around it.

So the Pats racked up a ton of A+ games, a bunch of A games, and of these three bad games, two were at worst C- performances. And one gigantic, big, fat, inexcusable "F".

How bad really was the second half drop off ?!

 

[captain stone]

What's the difference between Nickel 2-4-5 and Big Nickel 2-4-5? More safeties than cornerbacks in the secondary?

Also surprised that Nickel 3-3-5 is used so infrequently...

 

[ivanvamp]

How bad really was the second half drop off ?!

Statistically, it was considerable, especially depending on when you start measuring from. If you go with the first 8 versus the last 9, you end up with the Baltimore game in the last 9 and that skews the numbers that way. If you go with the pre-bye (9 games) versus the post-bye games (8 games), you end up with the Baltimore game in the first 9 and that skews the numbers that way.

So let's just go with the first 8 and then the last 9 (including playoffs).

First half (8):
- 7.6 points allowed
- 234.0 yards allowed
- 12.9 first downs allowed
- 3.1 turnovers caused

Second half (9):
- 20.4 points allowed
- 312.7 yards allowed
- 19.7 first downs allowed
- 1.3 turnovers caused

So let's look at these numbers again and let's assume that these were their team defensive stats for the entire season. Where would they rank? (in doing this, we are removing the Patriots' actual full season stats, so we're not counting the Patriots twice; these numbers above would represent the Patriots' new season stats)

First half (8):
- 7.6 points allowed - #1
- 234.0 yards allowed - #1
- 12.9 first downs allowed - #1
- 3.1 turnovers caused - #2

Second half (9):
- 20.4 points allowed - #11
- 312.7 yards allowed - #5
- 19.7 first downs allowed - #12
- 1.3 turnovers caused - #8

So they still would have been a well-above-average defense. Especially when you consider the level of opposition they faced in that stretch:

- Baltimore (#1 points, #2 yards)
- Dallas (#6 points, #1 yards)
- Kansas City (#5 points, #6 yards - skewed by the games Mahomes was injured, but the Pats played them when he was healthy)
- Tennessee (#10 points, #12 yards)
- Philadelphia (#12 points, #14 yards)
- Houston (#14 points, #13 yards)

So very few easy offenses for the defense to face in that second half of the season. It also didn't help that the offense went to hell in the second half of the season, and didn't give the defense much help at all. The Pats' offense went from averaging 31.3 points in the first half down to 20.3 points in the second half. If they scored 31.3 points a game in the second half, they'd have beaten everyone but Baltimore. And possibly even Baltimore, as the D "only" allowed 30 Ravens points and the Pats' offense literally gave up 7 points of their own.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Statistically, it was considerable, especially depending on when you start measuring from. If you go with the first 8 versus the last 9, you end up with the Baltimore game in the last 9 and that skews the numbers that way. If you go with the pre-bye (9 games) versus the post-bye games (8 games), you end up with the Baltimore game in the first 9 and that skews the numbers that way.

So let's just go with the first 8 and then the last 9 (including playoffs).

First half (8):
- 7.6 points allowed
- 234.0 yards allowed
- 12.9 first downs allowed
- 3.1 turnovers caused

Second half (9):
- 20.4 points allowed
- 312.7 yards allowed
- 19.7 first downs allowed
- 1.3 turnovers caused

So let's look at these numbers again and let's assume that these were their team defensive stats for the entire season. Where would they rank? (in doing this, we are removing the Patriots' actual full season stats, so we're not counting the Patriots twice; these numbers above would represent the Patriots' new season stats)

First half (8):
- 7.6 points allowed - #1
- 234.0 yards allowed - #1
- 12.9 first downs allowed - #1
- 3.1 turnovers caused - #2

Second half (9):
- 20.4 points allowed - #11
- 312.7 yards allowed - #5
- 19.7 first downs allowed - #12
- 1.3 turnovers caused - #8

So they still would have been a well-above-average defense. Especially when you consider the level of opposition they faced in that stretch:

- Baltimore (#1 points, #2 yards)
- Dallas (#6 points, #1 yards)
- Kansas City (#5 points, #6 yards - skewed by the games Mahomes was injured, but the Pats played them when he was healthy)
- Tennessee (#10 points, #12 yards)
- Philadelphia (#12 points, #14 yards)
- Houston (#14 points, #13 yards)

So very few easy offenses for the defense to face in that second half of the season. It also didn't help that the offense went to hell in the second half of the season, and didn't give the defense much help at all. The Pats' offense went from averaging 31.3 points in the first half down to 20.3 points in the second half. If they scored 31.3 points a game in the second half, they'd have beaten everyone but Baltimore. And possibly even Baltimore, as the D "only" allowed 30 Ravens points and the Pats' offense literally gave up 7 points of their own.

Great post. Would a major factor be Jason McCourty getting injured in week 9 ??

Hard to play so much nickel and dime when you only have 2 great CBs left.

.

.