Are Brady's struggles in Miami overstated?

[livinginthe past]

Interesting that you did it as a sum of the last three games, as it obfuscates the fact that the had 6 of those 9 TDs in one game (where he had a rating of 158.3). 3 TDs/2INTs in the other two games. That's subpar for Brady.

I'm sure its obvious that an average is made up of results that deviate either side of the mean.

So yes, we can say its 'sub-par' - but the fact remains that you can't really get an average without 'above par and 'sub par' figures.

Furthermore, I'm not looking to obfuscate anything - i've laid out the exact combined stats for the 3 games - you are the one who is cherry picking TD's to remove and then recalculating.

Maybe i'll go and remove all 4 INT's from one his earlier games......

Let's also not forget, the 6 TD game was against a Dolphin team that was 1-15. An absolutely putrid team that year.

And lets not forget that we can also remve any interceptions that occurs against a 'good' Miami D.

Of course, if you add one more point to the argument, the game at Miami in 2006 was one of Brady's worst games ever.

So in 3 of the last four games his line has been

12/25, 78 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, Loss
19/29, 352 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, Loss
19/24, 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, Win

4 wins, 5 losses in his career. 2-2 in his last 4 there.

The one where they had all his cadences and audibles prior to the game, you mean?

His last three games have been statistically, among his best there, despite losing one of the three. The previous six, he had a rating below 80 in 5 of 6.

Yes.

My point exactly.

Alot of people harp on about the Patriots recent lack of post-season success - it clearly trumps the 3 SB wins for relevance.

So, no, his struggles aren't overstated. Clearly he has struggled more there than most places. If you want to constrain it to a specific time period, then yes, he's struggled more at NY in recent years.

The operative word being 'has'.

Added: Outside of the 2007 game Brady is 3-5 in Miami with a rating of 81.8, 12 TDs, 10 INTs.

I was under the impression that QB's weren't solely to blame for wins and losses.

I could remove one terrible game that I perceive to be a statistical outlier from Brady's resumé and give that passer rating a healthy boost.

 

[JJDChE]

I'm sure its obvious that an average is made up of results that deviate either side of the mean.

So yes, we can say its 'sub-par' - but the fact remains that you can't really get an average without 'above par and 'sub par' figures.

Furthermore, I'm not looking to obfuscate anything - i've laid out the exact combined stats for the 3 games - you are the one who is cherry picking TD's to remove and then recalculating.

Maybe i'll go and remove all 4 INT's from one his earlier games......

Whether or not you were trying to obfuscate anything or not, your analysis does not provide an accurate assessment of the situation.


Look at the average of his 2006 and 2007 games at Miami. His 2007 game was perfect, his 2006 game was awful. If you combine the two it comes out with a great average, but can you really say he played great @ Miami in 06-07?

 

[JJDChE]

I could remove one terrible game that I perceive to be a statistical outlier from Brady's resumé and give that passer rating a healthy boost.

The difference is the 158.3 game actually is a statistical outlier. He's had two games in the 50s and 3 in the 70s in QB rating. How would you pull one of those out as an outlier?

QB ratings @ Miami
58.70
74.70
115.20
73.30
77.90
55.10
158.30
101.50
107.10