All the other AFC 2 loss teams... a lot of them play each other still

[mosslost]

Houston is looking pretty good. With Mahomes out I see them as our top competition in the AFC. That game where we play them may be for the #1 seed.

head to head won't matter because they will have another loss or two for sure. We will have at least a 1 to 2 game lead over them even if they beat us

 

[mosslost]

I don’t think they’ll go 8-8 but I do agree that it would be more likely than 13-3.

I've been saying "if" they don't turn into the Bills again. Maybe they are no good. But their schedule is very easy. I just don't want week 16 to mean anything

 

[mosslost]

This is a team that really should have lost to the jets and bengals and would be 2-3, and 2-2 against crappy teams.
I’d say 8-8 before I’d say 13-3.

 

[Brandon_Cox]

Thanks to the OP for an interesting way of thinking about this. I'm off work with some sort of bug, so I had a little time to look into what you're saying.

It's not too early to start thinking this way. First, I picked out the seven AFC teams with a record of .500 or better (none is at exactly .500). I picked that as a cutoff because, in general, if a team isn't at or above .500 going into week 7, it's highly unlikely they'll be making noise later in the season [earlier error corrected]. So, if you want to argue that a 2--4 team this year is better than one of the teams I've picked, I won't argue back. And, yes, of course, the "Any given Sunday" rule and crazily unpredictable Division contests (@Miami last year, anyone?) come into play. But...it's as good a place as any to start.

Then I looked at the remaining games of those seven teams against other teams .500 or better, in both Conferences but with an eye first to other AFC teams for obvious reasons playoff-wise.

Bottom line: I like where the Pats stand and think they could be 9--0 at their Bye week, but there's a lot of football to be played.

Indy and Oakland , with just three games remaining against teams .500 or better. However, there are lots of question marks for both teams. All three of Oakland's games are on the road. [corrected]

Buffalo has four games remaining against such teams, with two in the NFC

KCC and HOU have five games against teams that are .500 or better, KCC has three in the NFC. Three of their five are at home [error corrected]. Mahomes' knee is obviously a big question. All five of HOU's games are in conference, with two on the Road. Deshaun Watson is having a career season. [corrected]

Baltimore and the Pats have the toughest roads by the numbers, with six games remaining for each against teams playing .500 or better now, three in the Conference for BAL and four for the Pats.


Here's the data:

IND: 3--2
HOU 4--2
@HOU 4--2
@NOS 5--1 (NFC)

OAK: 3--2
@HOU 4--2
@KCC 5--2
@GBP 5--1 (NFC)

HOU: 4--2 [corrected]
OAK 4--2
@IND 3--2
@BAL 4--2
IND 3--2
NEP 6--0

BAL 4--2
NEP: 6--0
HOU 4--2
@BUF 4--2
@SEA 5--1 (NFC)
@LAR 3--3 (NFC)
SFO 5--0 (NFC)

BUF 4--1
BAL 4--2
@NEP 6--0
PHL 3--3 (NFC)
@DAL 3--3 (NFC)

KCC 5--2
OAK 3--2
@NEP 6--0
@GBP 5--1
MIN 4--2
CHI 3--2

PATS
@BAL 4--2
@HOU 4--2
KCC 5--2
BUF 4--2
@PHL 3--3 (NFC)
DAL 3--3 (NFC)

Thanks for that. Now drink plenty of fluids and get better.

 

[TommyD4207]

Unless the Bills are still secretly the Bills I see them going 13-3. Their schedule is so soft. They will lose on thanksgiving at Dallas as their second loss. Their third loss will be NE

The Bills haven't won more than 9 games in a season since 1999, and haven't gone 13-3 since 1991, were 1-seed in the AFC and went to the Super Bowl.

That was with Jim Kelly, a generational offense, and a top-10 defense, 6 or 7 Hall of Famers all told.

This year, they have a top-10 defense and Josh Allen at QB, and no Hall of Famers.

They're not going 13-3.

 

[TommyD4207]

I've been saying "if" they don't turn into the Bills again. Maybe they are no good. But their schedule is very easy. I just don't want week 16 to mean anything

It will mean nothing.

 

[SBLIII]

The Bills haven't won more than 9 games in a season since 1999, and haven't gone 13-3 since 1991, were 1-seed in the AFC and went to the Super Bowl.

That was with Jim Kelly, a generational offense, and a top-10 defense, 6 or 7 Hall of Famers all told.

This year, they have a top-10 defense and Josh Allen at QB, and no Hall of Famers.

They're not going 13-3.

To provide context, mosslost was also convinved that the Chiefs would go undefeated into Gillette.

 

[Joey007]

I've been saying "if" they don't turn into the Bills again. Maybe they are no good. But their schedule is very easy. I just don't want week 16 to mean anything

Even so, they still do play us, Cleveland, Jets, Steelers, Eagles, Ravens, Cowboys.

I sure see them losing at least more than two of these. They may even drop one of their other easy games I hadn’t listed.

 

[venecol]

BURP, excuse me.

 

[Patstastic]

head to head won't matter because they will have another loss or two for sure. We will have at least a 1 to 2 game lead over them even if they beat us

If the Texans have one more loss left, that puts them at 13-3. A potential Pats loss in Houston would matter. Because that means the Pats could only lose one more game the rest of the year (14-2) in order to gain HFA. What are the odds of the Pats going 5-1against Cleveland, Baltimore, KC, Dallas, Philly, and Buffalo? That's a gauntlet. Very tough games. So yes the head to head absolutely matters. Beating Houston is critical. (Assuming the Texans only lose one more game).

 

[mosslost]

What are the odds of the Pats going 5-1against Cleveland, Baltimore, KC, Dallas, Philly, and Buffalo?

high

6-0

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

I don't think the patriots will lose more than 2 games this year.

 

[brdmaverick]

(to have HFA be so takable, but not even have the Division locked up)

Kansas City and the LA Chargers were in that situation later year.

 

[brdmaverick]

Pats already have a 2 game lead, and we will do damage too potentially because we face most of these teams ourselves, so we can push them further down.

And there's the positive spin as to why having 6 games against +0.500 is a good thing.

I'm with you, but I see how it's funny at the same time.

 

[TB_Helmet]

head to head won't matter because they will have another loss or two for sure. We will have at least a 1 to 2 game lead over them even if they beat us

True, but gotta see how it plays out. Let's say they beat us and lose one the rest of the way, 13-3. Then we lose two more. I don't know where those losses are coming from but I didn't think we'd go 2-4 down the stretch in 2015 either after starting 10-0.

I guess them going 13-3 is unlikely but I'm still gonna say that the game against them will be a big one. Either that or the Bills (whom I'm still not sold on) probably the most important for the 1 seed.

ETA Patstastic beat me to it above with pretty much the same sentiment.

 

[maust]

The AFC is broken

And the Pats did it, can only imagine how many draft picks that's gonna cost them

 

[SBLIII]

True, but gotta see how it plays out. Let's say they beat us and lose one the rest of the way, 13-3. Then we lose two more. I don't know where those losses are coming from but I didn't think we'd go 2-4 down the stretch in 2015 either after starting 10-0.

I guess them going 13-3 is unlikely but I'm still gonna say that the game against them will be a big one. Either that or the Bills (whom I'm still not sold on) probably the most important for the 1 seed.

ETA Patstastic beat me to it above with pretty much the same sentiment.

The Bills are the 2015 Broncos. They could be dangerous with home field. If they have to win on the road they are cooked.

 

[BTTA]

@mosslost, this topic is what's been rolling around in my head for a couple of weeks. Glad you got the conversation started.

All the other AFC 2 loss teams... a lot of them play each other still

Depending on how those games go, and if the Chiefs struggle, as long as the Bills don't hang around until week 16, the Pats "could" lock things up kind of early as far as HFA

EDIT: And no, it's not too early!

@PatsFanSince74 , great work. I don't care how well you did it (the Board will find the errors). Initiating is 90% of the work here. Hope you are feeling better, but if it takes you getting sick once in a while to lead to this kind of research, well...

Thanks to the OP for an interesting way of thinking about this. I'm off work with some sort of bug, so I had a little time to look into what you're saying.

It's not too early to start thinking this way. First, I picked out the seven AFC teams with a record of .500 or better (none is at exactly .500). I picked that as a cutoff because, in general, if a team isn't at or above .500 going into week 7, it's highly unlikely they'll be making noise later in the season [earlier error corrected]. So, if you want to argue that a 2--4 team this year is better than one of the teams I've picked, I won't argue back. And, yes, of course, the "Any given Sunday" rule and crazily unpredictable Division contests (@Miami last year, anyone?) come into play. But...it's as good a place as any to start.

Then I looked at the remaining games of those seven teams against other teams .500 or better, in both Conferences but with an eye first to other AFC teams for obvious reasons playoff-wise.

Bottom line: I like where the Pats stand and think they could be 9--0 at their Bye week, but there's a lot of football to be played.

Indy and Oakland , with just three games remaining against teams .500 or better. However, there are lots of question marks for both teams. All three of Oakland's games are on the road. [corrected]

Buffalo has four games remaining against such teams, with two in the NFC

KCC and HOU have five games against teams that are .500 or better, KCC has three in the NFC. Three of their five are at home [error corrected]. Mahomes' knee is obviously a big question. All five of HOU's games are in conference, with two on the Road. Deshaun Watson is having a career season. [corrected]

Baltimore and the Pats have the toughest roads by the numbers, with six games remaining for each against teams playing .500 or better now, three in the Conference for BAL and four for the Pats.


Here's the data:

IND: 3--2
HOU 4--2
@HOU 4--2
@NOS 5--1 (NFC)

OAK: 3--2
@HOU 4--2
@KCC 5--2
@GBP 5--1 (NFC)

HOU: 4--2 [corrected]
OAK 4--2
@IND 3--2
@BAL 4--2
IND 3--2
NEP 6--0

BAL 4--2
NEP: 6--0
HOU 4--2
@BUF 4--2
@SEA 5--1 (NFC)
@LAR 3--3 (NFC)
SFO 5--0 (NFC)

BUF 4--1
BAL 4--2
@NEP 6--0
PHL 3--3 (NFC)
@DAL 3--3 (NFC)

KCC 5--2
OAK 3--2
@NEP 6--0
@GBP 5--1
MIN 4--2
CHI 3--2

PATS
@BAL 4--2
@HOU 4--2
KCC 5--2
BUF 4--2
@PHL 3--3 (NFC)
DAL 3--3 (NFC)

@Family, well said.

The poor guy has a bug, and been a Patriots fan since 74.

We old timers didn't get enough projects like this because the team was never in contention when we were young.

 

[Simpelton]

Brisett will do us a favor by giving them their 3rd loss on Sunday!

Would not mind meeting brissett on the divisional round

 

[mosslost]

The only worry I have to HFA is the Bills at this point honestly. All the other 2 loss AFC teams have built in losses from having to play each other, and several are in same division (AFC West, AFC South) which limits them as well as to seeding opportunity.

Honestly I think a Bills team if it hangs around is the only threat left to HFA, because they only have 1 loss, and their schedule is easy. I don't want to NEED to beat them in week 16.