Aldon Smith

[Water Boy]

I am playing the role of the Patriots GM in a mock over on Saintsreport. Watt, Jordan, Solder, and Smith all went just prior to pick #17 so I traded back from 17 to 22 to pick up another 3rd rounder and swap of 2nds. Aldon Smith is on my short list of prospects for 22 and wanted to get some quick input from the Pats experts here before making my selection.

Given the choice between Aldon Smith, Muhammed Wilkerson, or either of Carimi or Castonzo who do you go with and who do you hope will drop?

I am leaning towards Wilkerson because he is the next best 5-tech IMO and the drop off is larger. I am leary of Smith as a conversion, but his upside is definitely up there. I would be happy with either OT. Thoughts??

Seems like you are on the pulse of the Patriots needs. I just can't get over my man-crush on Aldon Smith's potential as a pass rushing 3-4 OLB in BB's system, so he'd be my pick. I think upgrading the pass rush is the number one priority for the Pats defense. I love Wilkerson and hope to heck he's still there at 28, but DE is not THE top priority in the draft IMO with Ty Warren coming back next season. There is also Heyward and others to fall back on if necessary. As far as drafting an O lineman in the first round, the Pats positional needs are undetermined as of yet due to the Logan Mankins soap opera and it is uncertain if Matt Light will be resigned. One or both of these players may not be back and we have one other starting OG spot to fill. RT Sebastian Vollmer can move to LT, so drafting a prototypical LT is not essential. Given the uncertainties of the O-line situation there has been some good discussion on this board on drafting lineman with OT/OG positional flexibility.

 

[IllegalContact]

If people are thinking of smith only for his pass rush, then you're talking about more of a 4-3

If you want someone who can cover, then it's martez Wilson who would be much easier to convert to a 3-4 OLB than a 4-3 DE......

 

[Sciz]

If people are thinking of smith only for his pass rush, then you're talking about more of a 4-3

If you want someone who can cover, then it's martez Wilson who would be much easier to convert to a 3-4 OLB than a 4-3 DE......

It's a whole lot easier to teach a 4-3 DE how to drop into coverage than it is to teach an 4-3 ILB to rush the passer and set the edge. Bill once said that hand use is key for an OLB, and that it's something that players have to play on the defensive line to become accustomed to. Aldon has had it, Wilson has not. And neither is going to be a full time OLB their rookie year. I'd rather have a situational pass-rusher than a situational coverage OLB.

 

[Zardnok]

Seems like you are on the pulse of the Patriots needs. I just can't get over my man-crush on Aldon Smith's potential as a pass rushing 3-4 OLB in BB's system, so he'd be my pick. I think upgrading the pass rush is the number one priority for the Pats defense. I love Wilkerson and hope to heck he's still there at 28, but DE is not THE top priority in the draft IMO with Ty Warren coming back next season. There is also Heyward and others to fall back on if necessary. As far as drafting an O lineman in the first round, the Pats positional needs are undetermined as of yet due to the Logan Mankins soap opera and it is uncertain if Matt Light will be resigned. One or both of these players may not be back and we have one other starting OG spot to fill. RT Sebastian Vollmer can move to LT, so drafting a prototypical LT is not essential. Given the uncertainties of the O-line situation there has been some good discussion on this board on drafting lineman with OT/OG positional flexibility.

I have read an awful lot on this board trying to get that pulse and make sure I make educated picks. The three picks right before me were Castonzo, Aldon Smith, and Carimi making my decision much easier. Muhammed Wilkerson, welcome to the New England Patriots. Now I need to regroup and see where I want to go with pick 1B since my other top prospects all got scooped.

 

[Off The Grid]

It's a whole lot easier to teach a 4-3 DE how to drop into coverage than it is to teach an 4-3 ILB to rush the passer and set the edge. Bill once said that hand use is key for an OLB, and that it's something that players have to play on the defensive line to become accustomed to. Aldon has had it, Wilson has not. And neither is going to be a full time OLB their rookie year. I'd rather have a situational pass-rusher than a situational coverage OLB.

Nicely put, sir.

Those who're thinking that we HAVE to go Defensive End with our 1st Pick ought remember The Law of Supply and Demand.

There is an OCEAN on quality Flankers coming out, this year.

But there is only a CUP Full of Flankers who MIGHT optimally fit our Scheme.

And there is a LAKE full of Defensive Ends who might.

As such, it seems to me that it behooves us to POUNCE on an High Grade Flanker or two as soon as we CAN...And THEN see to Defensive Ends.

But that's me.

 

[Patriot Missile]

It's a whole lot easier to teach a 4-3 DE how to drop into coverage than it is to teach an 4-3 ILB to rush the passer and set the edge. Bill once said that hand use is key for an OLB, and that it's something that players have to play on the defensive line to become accustomed to. Aldon has had it, Wilson has not. And neither is going to be a full time OLB their rookie year. I'd rather have a situational pass-rusher than a situational coverage OLB.

In some ways Smith and Quinn seem to fit the mold of the Patriots future. I'd bet money that either one of these two would play both 43 DE and 34 LB for the Patriots.. They are both big enough and fast enough to disquise the coverage at the line. Question is can they make the conversion?

 

[dryheat44]

I have read an awful lot on this board trying to get that pulse and make sure I make educated picks. The three picks right before me were Castonzo, Aldon Smith, and Carimi making my decision much easier. Muhammed Wilkerson, welcome to the New England Patriots. Now I need to regroup and see where I want to go with pick 1B since my other top prospects all got scooped.

I appreciate you doing your homework on this one. Wilkerson is a nice pick there. I don't know where I'd go at #28. You could make a case for Pouncey, but I'm not as high on him as most...in fact, I'd take Watkins instead, but he should be there in the 2nd. (when you say you flip-flopped second rounders, which one, and which did you get back?) Brooks Reed might deserve consideration, but I think that's a bit high for him as well. I'm assuming that Sherrod's gone, but if not, he should probably be your guy at #28. And if not, see about a modest trade back with somebody who wants a QB.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

He's not going to last to 17. I have the Pats trading up to #13 for him.

I have to agree with this. I think that Aldon Smith will climb up the draft (GMs will be trying to imagine him as the next DeMarcus Ware) and be drafted in the 10-13 range. [Of course he is not the next DeMarcus Ware but GM's eyes get misty at this time of year.]

I could actually see the Patriots trading up this year and Smith might be the target.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

If people are thinking of smith only for his pass rush, then you're talking about more of a 4-3

If you want someone who can cover, then it's martez Wilson who would be much easier to convert to a 3-4 OLB than a 4-3 DE......

How much coverage do we really need from our OLB?? Willie and Vraible had like 8 int combine the 5 years they played together and we won three Superbowls. I just think we need QB pressure out of our OLB not coverage.

 

[Brady2Welker]

How much coverage do we really need from our OLB?? Willie and Vraible had like 8 int combine the 5 years they played together and we won three Superbowls. I just think we need QB pressure out of our OLB not coverage.

This is true, but ints aren't a measurement of coverage skills, Vrabel had elite hips for a LB and excelled in space. In truth the Patriots play what you consider a 5-2 scheme where our OLBs are asked to act as defensive line rolls where they are told to stack and shed blockers using length and leverage. Even if we had Clay Mathews he would'nt be as productive without asking to do a schematic change for the defense, most OLBs are asked to do 1 gap penetration using their natural traits (eg speed or the bull rush) but ours are asked to play a more conservative game which is why I believe Smith will be a target for the Patriots if he stays on the board long enough. He has elite length for an OLB and good burst off the line. I really like this kid.


I'm on a break studying for an organic chemistry test, so this doesn't make sense as my brain is imploding. I'll come back sometime in the near future and clarify my thoughts.

 

[mgteich]

I see Smith as being a fine addition to our team. He has the talent. However, I would think that he would be much more valuable to a 4-3 team.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

This is true, but ints aren't a measurement of coverage skills, Vrabel had elite hips for a LB and excelled in space. In truth the Patriots play what you consider a 5-2 scheme where our OLBs are asked to act as defensive line rolls where they are told to stack and shed blockers using length and leverage. Even if we had Clay Mathews he would'nt be as productive without asking to do a schematic change for the defense, most OLBs are asked to do 1 gap penetration using their natural traits (eg speed or the bull rush) but ours are asked to play a more conservative game which is why I believe Smith will be a target for the Patriots if he stays on the board long enough. He has elite length for an OLB and good burst off the line. I really like this kid.


I'm on a break studying for an organic chemistry test, so this doesn't make sense as my brain is imploding. I'll come back sometime in the near future and clarify my thoughts.

You make some great points....even while taking a break from getting ready for your finals. The Pats do play a 5-2 or 30 defense but they are often in the 4-2-5 Nickle. We are just looking for these guys to be physical with TE and drop into passing lanes but most importantly get to the QB. Int's are big but if the OLB can get to the QB on 3rd down and we can hold our man coverage then we are a better defense IMO. Our DB core for 2011 is looking good and I bet BB will ad another piece before we are through. Clay Mathews did not have much playing time at USC behind those LB is the real reason he slid but I believe we would have been able to use him as he is becoming a special player and he is only 24 years old. It is one of the hardest positions to draft and why it is so hard to find the right prospect to fit our system.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I see Smith as being a fine addition to our team. He has the talent. However, I would think that he would be much more valuable to a 4-3 team.

He might very well be more optimally suited to a 4-3 defense but it's not like we don't use that formation ourselves. I think the biggest question is whether or not he'd represent the value in terms of impact, at a time when we'd be pulling the trigger. If he's there at #17 it might very well be the best option to go for him and gamble that Wilkerson or Ellis is available later on.

 

[DW Toys]

I see Smith as being a fine addition to our team. He has the talent. However, I would think that he would be much more valuable to a 4-3 team.

Absolutely correct.
Some say Ayers and he is not a fit either as he is limited in pass rush.
I like Beal's fortitude but he is slower than Spikes. Not good for your OLB. A healthy Herzlich of two years ago would have been perfect. I hope everything works out for that young man. Maybe we take a flyer on him or Greg Romeus. I think he is the absolute steal of the Draft.

DW Toys

 

[Zardnok]

I appreciate you doing your homework on this one. Wilkerson is a nice pick there. I don't know where I'd go at #28. You could make a case for Pouncey, but I'm not as high on him as most...in fact, I'd take Watkins instead, but he should be there in the 2nd. (when you say you flip-flopped second rounders, which one, and which did you get back?) Brooks Reed might deserve consideration, but I think that's a bit high for him as well. I'm assuming that Sherrod's gone, but if not, he should probably be your guy at #28. And if not, see about a modest trade back with somebody who wants a QB.

Since this thread got bumped back up to the top, I thought I would provide a quick update on how my stint as Patriots GM over on Saints Report is going. I wish I was able to create my own thread for discussion of my picks, but alas, I am a rookie here with less than 30 posts. If someone would like to make a thread here on the draft boards, I promise to post all my stuff there and even get input on the targets I have as they come up.

The trade I made earlier was with Indy. I moved back 5 spots in the first and up 7 spots in the second and got their third rounder and gave up my 5th as well to make the value work out. In hindsight, I probably should have just hard-balled them and kept the fifth rounder. They really wanted to trade up for Tyron Smith, who I am not sold on.

So far, I have had runs on players that I had targeted and have ended up selecting some players a tad higher than I anticipated them going. I guess it just goes to show that the draft is a fluid thing and you have to be willing to adapt and adjust your picks depending on what everyone else does around you. Ultimately, I think I am doing OK so far and hope I do not end up in some post here with "Look at who this idiot on Saints Report drafted for us!" as the title.

Rd 1- #22 Muhammed Wilkerson DE Temple I think I read it some where on this site, but the biggest need for the Pats is DE. In fact, it seems to be a recurring theme here over the past few years.

#28 Brooks Reed OLB Arizona Another clamor around here is for an elite Pass-rusher. I am not sure if Reed is elite, but he was the best available when I selected and his stock has really been on the rise.

Rd 2- #33 Danny Watkins OG Baylor He is the second best interior lineman behind Pouncy. I had hoped to target him a bit later in the second, but there was a run on O-Lineman and nobody else available really that gave as much value IMO.

#53 Benjamin Ijilana OT Villanova He was the best OT remaining on the board and I have always had a soft-spot for smaller school prospects. He is shorter than the Pats prefer, but he can man the right side or even move inside if he can not hack it outside.

Rd 3 #74 Jarvis Jenkins DE/DT Clemson Again with the 5-technique thing. He does not offer much in the way of pass-rush ability, at least not in college where he was constantly double teamed, but he does have some quickness and is quite stout against the run. Watching him play shows a lot more strength than he tested at the combine, so I am going by what I saw. Some prognosticators have suggested he could play NT in a 3-4 as well. I am not sure about that, but he may be a swing guy that can play both.

The Saints have a poll pick tomorrow, which should last half the day or so and then I am up again with #87 from Indy and then #92 soon there after. I am looking at possibly a RB and or CB/S with the next two picks.

Ingram, Leshoure, and Ryan Williams are the only RB selected so far and I have my eye on DeMarco Murray, but I have a feeling he will be the winner of the Saints poll. He seems to have the game breaking ability that the Pats are looking for. Kendall Hunter is probably my back-up plan for RB if Murray is selected, but I am going to do more reading on Jordan Todman and Shane Vereen.

As for DBs, that is where the pickings get quite a bit thinner. Curtis Brown was my primary target for the first pick this round, but someone moved up and grabbed him. That started a run on DBs and I missed out on Davon House as well. That leaves me a pool of Chimdi Chekwa, Jalil Brown, Robert Sands, and Jaiquawn Jarret. I am sure I am forgetting someone, but there have been a lot of DBs taken.

Another option at the end of Rd 3 is a sliding Jerrel Powe, but I am not sure if DT is a need now that I have grabbed Jenkins who can perhaps swing inside. Seems to me BB is happy with the depth in the middle, but I see Powe as a rare physical specimen who really seems to have turned the corner mentally and academically.

The only two centers I feel can start day one are Wisniewski and Pouncey with Hudson being a strong guard that would need time to adjust to Center. Every time I got ready to grab one of them, someone else grabbed them so I am left with my #4 center Brandon Fusco from Slippery Rock who I am pretty sure I can get with my fourth rounder. I am concerned that he will need at least a year, probably two, to build strength and adjust to life in the NFL, but so will my back-up plan at Center Tim Barnes. I see Fusco as the higher upside, but Barnes as the safer pick despite him coming from a Spread offense. O'Dowd is the other center I see talked about highly, but I removed him from my draft board for medical reasons.

With the 6th round pick, I will likely try to pick up some small school WR like Stephen Burton from West Texas A&M who ran a 4.38 40 with a 1.46 10 yard split at his pro-day or maybe Cecil Shorts from Mount Union who was responsible for 73 TDs and almost 5400 all-purpose yards in college. DB may also be a target if I decide to go with Powe at the end of the 3rd. It just depends on who is available as there could be someone else of great value sliding. I will worry about this pick when the 6th round starts.

 

[Off The Grid]

How much coverage do we really need from our OLB?? Willie and Vraible had like 8 int combine the 5 years they played together and we won three Superbowls. I just think we need QB pressure out of our OLB not coverage.

This is true, but ints aren't a measurement of coverage skills, Vrabel had elite hips for a LB and excelled in space. In truth the Patriots play what you consider a 5-2 scheme where our OLBs are asked to act as defensive line rolls where they are told to stack and shed blockers using length and leverage. Even if we had Clay Mathews he would'nt be as productive without asking to do a schematic change for the defense, most OLBs are asked to do 1 gap penetration using their natural traits (eg speed or the bull rush) but ours are asked to play a more conservative game which is why I believe Smith will be a target for the Patriots if he stays on the board long enough. He has elite length for an OLB and good burst off the line. I really like this kid.


*I'm on a break studying for an organic chemistry test, so this doesn't make sense as my brain is imploding. I'll come back sometime in the near future and clarify my thoughts.

Tremendous post, sir. That's the best Argument I can recalling reading, regarding Aldon Smith, who of course I've been hollering for, for a long time.

 

[patchick]

Rd 1- #22 Muhammed Wilkerson DE Temple I think I read it some where on this site, but the biggest need for the Pats is DE. In fact, it seems to be a recurring theme here over the past few years.

#28 Brooks Reed OLB Arizona Another clamor around here is for an elite Pass-rusher. I am not sure if Reed is elite, but he was the best available when I selected and his stock has really been on the rise.

Rd 2- #33 Danny Watkins OG Baylor He is the second best interior lineman behind Pouncy. I had hoped to target him a bit later in the second, but there was a run on O-Lineman and nobody else available really that gave as much value IMO.

#53 Benjamin Ijilana OT Villanova He was the best OT remaining on the board and I have always had a soft-spot for smaller school prospects. He is shorter than the Pats prefer, but he can man the right side or even move inside if he can not hack it outside.

Rd 3 #74 Jarvis Jenkins DE/DT Clemson Again with the 5-technique thing. He does not offer much in the way of pass-rush ability, at least not in college where he was constantly double teamed, but he does have some quickness and is quite stout against the run. Watching him play shows a lot more strength than he tested at the combine, so I am going by what I saw. Some prognosticators have suggested he could play NT in a 3-4 as well. I am not sure about that, but he may be a swing guy that can play both.

:eat1: Really nice work, very solid fits for the Patriots' schemes. Of the later players, Shane Vereen & Brandon Fusco are both popular around here. A high-ceiling developmental C makes a lot of sense with an aging incumbent.

Personally, I have trouble seeing Jerrell Powe as a Patriot; maybe Chris Neild? At DB, are you looking for a FS type (Cortez Allen?) or a classic CB (Buster Skrine)? And some other likely WR targets: Edmund Gates, Denarius Moore.

 

[Water Boy]

I think I read it some where on this site, but the biggest need for the Pats is DE. In fact, it seems to be a recurring theme here over the past few years.

There are some who are obsessed (mgteich cough cough) with the concept that DE is our biggest NEED. I disagree. I think O-line and Edge rusher are far more critical for the Patriots next season. When you look at our current D line (Wilfork, T. Warren, G. Warren, Wright, Stroud, Brace, Love, Pryor & Deadrick) compared to our current Offensive line (Vollmer, Koppen, Connolly, Mankins????, Light????) or OLBs (Cunningham, Ninkovich, TBC) I don't know how you can assert DE as our biggest NEED. When it comes to positional value in the draft, there is room to argue where in the draft certain positions should be drafted. I think many on this board would agree that quality 3-4 DEs don't grow on trees and likely require a higher draft pick to obtain. The question of wether we absolutely need to spend our No. 17 pick on a DE is subject to debate.

You did a great job so far IMO.

 

[WhiZa]

If people are thinking of smith only for his pass rush, then you're talking about more of a 4-3

Smith reminds me a lot of Micheal Johnson who has been doing pretty well as a 4-3 DE. Really not worthy of a 1st round pick as a 3-4 OLB project imo

 

[mgteich]

Yes, I have thought that our #1 first round need has been a DE from the day Seymour left. Perhpas that is indeed an obsession as defined here on patsfans.

Of course, by rule, it is NOT an obsession to suggest that a pass-rushing OLB in the early rounds is a need for TEN years. Many posters have had passrushing OLB as their top need since the day they arrived on the board.

BTW, not understanding the difference between 1st round priority and overall need is common here. To suggest that I don't properly consider the need at OL is quite amusing. I have been pointing out the need at OG for three years now. For the record, I would be fine with an OG at 28 or 31.
=======================================================
MY MANTRA AND BOTTOM LINE FOR ANOTHER MONTH OR SO

Given the players in this draft, and where we pick, I will indeed be obsessive on the need, priority and opportunity to draft a top defensive end between 6-20. This is in keeping with Belichick's draft philsopsophy. Belichick WILL get value for our picks. Belichick also believes in using 1st round picks for defensive linemen.

We are the patriots; we need a DE; the 1st round si the place to find one of value!

No matter what the need, it is not clear that Belichick would ever draft an OG at 17.

No matter what the need, it is not clear that Belichick would ever draft an OLB at 17. IMHO, if an OLB would be worth a 17 to Belichick, the player would already have been drafted in top 5. Perhaps this year will be the year that Belichick changes and draftes an OLB early, perhaps NOT. Again, I would certainly be fine with an OLB at 28 or 33 (Houston or Reed). I just don't think that it will happen.

There are some who are obsessed (mgteich cough cough) with the concept that DE is our biggest NEED. I disagree. I think O-line and Edge rusher are far more critical for the Patriots next season. When you look at our current D line (Wilfork, T. Warren, G. Warren, Wright, Stroud, Brace, Love, Pryor & Deadrick) compared to our current Offensive line (Vollmer, Koppen, Connolly, Mankins????, Light????) or OLBs (Cunningham, Ninkovich, TBC) I don't know how you can assert DE as our biggest NEED. When it comes to positional value in the draft, there is room to argue where in the draft certain positions should be drafted. I think many on this board would agree that quality 3-4 DEs don't grow on trees and likely require a higher draft pick to obtain. The question of wether we absolutely need to spend our No. 17 pick on a DE is subject to debate.

You did a great job so far IMO.