PromisedLand
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http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking?season=2007&week=0
I was a bit bored at work today and was looking at the ESPN preseason power rankings when an idea came to me - use the power rankings to forecast next season's records.
Of course this method is as flawed and subject to second guessing as any other, but at least it is based on some consensus of opinion (in this case, ESPN apparently polled 8 of their staffers to come up with the rankings) on how strong teams will be in the UPCOMING season, unlike strength of schedule forecasts based on the previous season's record.
To use this method, you basically look at the power rankings of the two teams playing each other to predict the outcome of the game. But I needed to decide how much bias to give the team with home advantage. I more or less arbitrarily assigned home advantage a value of five rankings places - e.g. if #1 played at #6 it would be a push. This seemed about right to me based on prior year's rankings.
I tested my method on the 49ers, who of course are of particular interest to us because we have their #1st round pick next year.
Using this method I forecast that the 49ers will have a record of 8-8 or 7-9, with the difference coming from which the one "push" game on their schedule falls. Here are the details:
OK, let the second guessing begin!
I was a bit bored at work today and was looking at the ESPN preseason power rankings when an idea came to me - use the power rankings to forecast next season's records.
Of course this method is as flawed and subject to second guessing as any other, but at least it is based on some consensus of opinion (in this case, ESPN apparently polled 8 of their staffers to come up with the rankings) on how strong teams will be in the UPCOMING season, unlike strength of schedule forecasts based on the previous season's record.
To use this method, you basically look at the power rankings of the two teams playing each other to predict the outcome of the game. But I needed to decide how much bias to give the team with home advantage. I more or less arbitrarily assigned home advantage a value of five rankings places - e.g. if #1 played at #6 it would be a push. This seemed about right to me based on prior year's rankings.
I tested my method on the 49ers, who of course are of particular interest to us because we have their #1st round pick next year.
Using this method I forecast that the 49ers will have a record of 8-8 or 7-9, with the difference coming from which the one "push" game on their schedule falls. Here are the details:
Code:
SF Schedule prediction based on ESPN preseason power rankings... SF = #15.
WK DATE OPPONENT TICKETS LINE TV TIME (ET)
W 1 Mon, Sep 10 Arizona (22)
L 2 Sun, Sep 16 at St. Louis (18)
L 3 Sun, Sep 23 at Pittsburgh (13)
W 4 Sun, Sep 30 Seattle (11)
L 5 Sun, Oct 7 Baltimore (4)
6 BYE WEEK
L 7 Sun, Oct 21 at NY Giants (17)
L 8 Sun, Oct 28 New Orleans (6)
L 9 Sun, Nov 4 at Atlanta (19)
L 10 Mon, Nov 12 at Seattle (11)
W 11 Sun, Nov 18 St. Louis (18)
W 12 Sun, Nov 25 at Arizona (22)
L 13 Sun, Dec 2 at Carolina (16)
W 14 Sun, Dec 9 Minnesota (25)
? 15 Sat, Dec 15 Cincinnati (10)
W 16 Sun, Dec 23 Tampa Bay (27)
W 17 Sun, Dec 30 at Cleveland (31)
8-8 or 7-9 depending on which way the Cincinnati game goes.OK, let the second guessing begin!
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