5 Key to Victory: Pats-Saints

[TennesseePatriot]

5. Play for 60 minutes. We have to avoid mental lapses. We have to avoid special teams breakdowns. And above all we have to come out on fire in the 2nd half and play our guts out on both sides of the ball. No 3rd quarter absences if we want to win this game. Like the Colts, the Saints are a team that we could easily beat for 3 quarters and lose the game.

This is the most important key to the game. I see the Patriots coming out fast and controlling the game prior to halftime, but whether or not we'll hold on to it remains to be seen.

 

[pherein]

I think you will see a lot of 3-3-5 (with both regular and "big" nickel packages) and 3-2-6 in this game. I think you will see a 3 man line of Wright-Wilfork-Warren or Wilfork-Pryor-Warren, with Brace for depth. Mayo and Guyton will be the main LBs, with Adalius Thomas the 3rd LB in the 3-3-5 sets. Patrick Chung will play in big nickel formations and will substitute for Thomas as a hybrid safety/LB in 3-2-6 formations.

I see the DL's main job as being stopping the run up the middle and pushing the pocket back. The LB's will provide additional run support, and will rush up the middle, as will the safeties at times. Bodden is big and physical and matches up as well on Colston as anyone does. McGowan will have primary responsibility for Shockey. Butler and Wilhite will cover the other WRs, with Meriweather playing centerfielder and helping out. Chung can enforce the middle, function as a hybrid LB, and blitz.

2. ...Get pressure on Brees with exotic blitzes. Bring Banta-Cain off the edge on either side, bring Mayo or Guyton up the gut. Have Adalius come from either side. Fake blitz, then drop into short zones for the crossing routes. I don't think the Pats can bring consistent pressure with the base 4-man rush, so they need to mix things up. Do things Brees hasn't seen on film.

I agree with this. I see Jarvis Green, TBC and Derrick Burgess being used mainly as situational pass rushers, with most of the pressure coming up the middle from Mayo and Guyton or off the edge from the DBs. Brees is a student of the game but he hasn't played the Pats much the way Manning has, and he will be more susceptible to confusion. I also see the Pats switching around coverage assignments to confuse Brees.



As mentioned above, I see a 3 man DL whose primary responsibility is to hold strong against the inside run and force things outside. I think we will see Wilfork at DE with Pryor or Brace at DT a lot. It will be hard to run against that kind of 3 man line. Mayo and Guyton will support the inside run and have primary responsibility for not letting the Saints get around the corner outside, with support from the DBs.



I agree about using more play action and under-center snaps and less shotgun. I think the Saints 20th ranked run defense is susceptible, particularly if Morris or Taylor is back. I don't think the Saints' DEs can compare with Freeney and Mathis, and will have trouble getting pressure on Brady. Vollmer should be able to handle the left side by himself, allowing for the TE to help Kaczur out, and the guards to double up on the middle. If the Saints do get pressure, I think it will come up the middle.

With time, I think Brady can pick the NO defense apart ... as he can pick any defense apart with time.



Great thoughts.

Informative thread and post mayo . I’d just like to add some refinements if I may.

1.is I wouldn't worry about a run up the middle we have one of lowest yard per a carry up the middle , most of the yards running are off tackle or around the ends.

2. You cant blitz brees his QB average goes to 122 I think ( believe me everyone has tried and now he is the least blitzed QB for that reason ), and you cant push my pocket ! ( nothing personal ) , this is the 1-2# ranked OL for 3 years now your probably just going to get one of the DL hurt trying. you need to collapse the pocket and kill lanes for brees, thats what Miami did and got 5 sacks.

3. the stat that helps allot but is not counted to well is heart, I think you know N.O. has boatloads. I think one reason we came from behind so much and never thought about a lose is this team is playing for something tangible, that helps in the lockeroom.

Oh other stuff I looked up for ya

Personal vs the Eagles
2RB/1WR/2TE-24
1RB/3WR/1TE-20
2RB/2WR/1TE-12
1RB/2WR/2TE-6
2RB/3WR/0TE-3

RB Snaps
Bush-42[2WR]
Evans-40[4TE/H-Back]
Bell-21
Thomas-1

1RB-26
Bush 24, Evans1, Thomas1
2RB-39
Bell/Evans-21 Bush/Evans-18

WR Snaps
Colston-50
Henderson-38
Meachem-36
Moore-5

1WR-24
Colston-12, Meachem-12
2WR-18
Colston/Henderson-12 Meachem/Henderson-3, Colston/Meachem-2 Moore/Henderson-1
3WR-23
Colston/Meachem/Henderson-19, Colston/Moore/Henderson-4


TE Snaps
Shockey 47[9WR]
Thomas 32 [6WR/1FB]
Strief 13

0TE-3
1TE-32
Shockey 29, Thomas 3
2TE-30
Shockey/Thomas-17, Thomas/Strief-12 Shockey/Strief-1

Formations at the snap
2RB/2WR-17
2RB/2TE-17
1RB/3WR-12
1RB/4WR-7
1RB/2TE-5
2RB/3WR-3
4WR/1TE-2
3WR/2TE-1
1RB/3TE-1


otherwise were all good

 

[pherein]

I respectfully disagree.

I don't think you "stop" the Saints passing attack. Brees will get his yards and points, just like Manning. The trick is (1) to not let him run wild, (2) to not give him a lot of freebies off of defensive turnovers with points and good field position, and (3) contain the running attack, making the Saints offense one-dimensional.

I personally want to puke at the idea that this should be a "bend but don't break" game. I think it should be an attacking game for our defense, even if we give up 1 or 2 big plays. We need to keep aggressive and keep Brees off balance, forcing him into mistakes, and not play afraid of giving up a big play. The Saints will get big plays, no matter what we do. They're too good not to. But they will carve us up if we sit back and play BBDB.

Our red zone defense is currently ranked around 28th. The Saints have been deadly inside the red zone. I don't really want to see us get "run over" until the field shrinks. I do agree that we will use a lot of nickel and dime coverages with a 3 man front, but I don't think that should prevent us from limiting the running game.

As you say, somewhat similar to the Indy game, and we have the benefit of that painful experience. And it's largely because the Saints are more balanced than Indy that I want to take away that balance.

you dead on here , correct and not give brees the option to confuse your defense with play action, which we are experts at. As soon as brees has a defense confused your in a meat grinder.

 

[pherein]

I don't want to sound like a jerk, but those are the 5 "keys" to any and every game. I think the "key" to this game is going to be scheming. Brees looks like a different QB (as do most) under pressure, so the key is figuring out how to apply maximum pressure while keeping good coverage in the secondary. We need to hit him often and hard. I think a deceptive game plan may be the best approach, lots of blitzing mixing in with exotic coverages. Hit him, rush him, and then confuse him. This obviously starts with the front 4.

As for the offense, I think they may need to get creative this game. If the O-line is still banged up and Morris is still out, we can't just relying on screens and slants all day. Now would be the time to use some trickery. I LOVED the reverse Welker last game, I think we will need to use a lot more plays like that to be successful. Make the defense react and think twice. Keep them on their heals, and we should be able to be successful. If we get back to the predictable play calling and formations, it will be a LONG day.

Ive said this before but if you blitz brees your making him a better QB, I know BB wont do that, you need to collapse the pock if you can.

Morris good RB, nice post

 

[pherein]

That doesn't count in my book. We led the Jets 24-0 and gave up 14 answered points to allow them within 10. I never thought we'd lose, but those points aren't "garbage points" in my mind, because they had a chance to make a game out of it. We gave up 7 first half points to Tampa Bay and led 21-7 at the half. The game wasn't technically over, but I don't think anyone gave TB a chance.

As for the 59 points against the Titans, that's not such an anomaly. We scored 50 several times in 2007 with similar offensive personnel, including 52 the last time we faced a (actually pretty decent) Greg Williams defense. I don't think anyone predicted 59 points, but I think most people assumed we would put up a half century at least once this year.

Hopefully next week we make it twice.

Thou I have to tell you , your replace Sanchez with brees in this game, and the game I watched gets way more scary for N.E. . Sanchez gave that game away.

 

[pherein]

god its so beautiful when the thread is all pig

 

[Patspsycho]

god its so beautiful when the thread is all pig

yeah it's a big sty now.. stinks in here but should go away after next monday.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

This is the most important key to the game.

:agree: about 60 minutes. They can't let their foot off the pedal, good teams will be all over us in a second. It almost happened again on Sunday.

Great analysis mayo!

 

[pherein]

yeah it's a big sty now.. stinks in here but should go away after next monday.

onk onk onk

 

[Satchboogie3]

Ive said this before but if you blitz brees your making him a better QB, I know BB wont do that, you need to collapse the pock if you can.

Morris good RB, nice post

Yeah, that's why pressure from the front 4 is going to be crucial. We can't blitz too often nor can we bring the house. The first half of the Miami game, Taylor and the Phins front 4/5 were beating the Saint's Oline and the result was a lot of incompletions, 2 INTs, and a couple sacks (including a strip sack). I'm not sure our front 4 can get that much pressure, but you bet BB is looking over that tape to see how the Saint's Oline got beat so bad.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nice series of posts Pherein. Since your comments were spread out over several points, I'll just encapsulate my thoughts into one response.

1. Very interesting to hear about the Saints not being very effective running up the middle. Thanks for the info.
2. No disrespect to your OL, but we've been hearing all season about how good other teams OLs are, such as the Jets and Ravens lines. We have a very physical and powerful DL, and I don't think they'll get beat up or pushed around by anyone.
3. I didn't mean to suggest that we should do lots of blitzing in this game. That's not our style, and I agree it probably works to Brees' advantage. I think we will primarily depend on our DL to collapse the pocket. But I think we will blitz seletively with our DBs, who can be very effective.

 

[pherein]

Nice series of posts Pherein. Since your comments were spread out over several points, I'll just encapsulate my thoughts into one response.

thanks for the response , always a pleasure.

1. Very interesting to hear about the Saints not being very effective running up the middle. Thanks for the info.
2. No disrespect to your OL, but we've been hearing all season about how good other teams OLs are, such as the Jets and Ravens lines. We have a very physical and powerful DL, and I don't think they'll get beat up or pushed around by anyone.
3. I didn't mean to suggest that we should do lots of blitzing in this game. That's not our style, and I agree it probably works to Brees' advantage. I think we will primarily depend on our DL to collapse the pocket. But I think we will blitz seletively with our DBs, who can be very effective.

1. Bell is a good RB but we have never been able to get much success with a guard run. And by the way a commend BB for the 4th down try, payton did 5 4th downs vs the Giants ( guess what up the middle and failed). Failed 2x on the goal up the middle vs them.

2. I sympathize believe me Ive heard the same all year. This is the best OL you will face. They have been #1-2 for 3 years, most wonder why brees is so good, its this OL. He even brought them to the pro bowl with him and payed for everything. If your going to take any player seriously on the saints id tell you watch the OL. They are that good and deep. Thats one reason for our run game stats. Which is comical when you think about that we cant beat the middle run.

3. Agreed collapse the pocket. I wouldn't blitz at all, unless you start losing the trench war, which, not try to be egotistic, its very easy to look up , you will probably have a huge problem with.

I am interested on your opinion.. how good is chris Mcalister now http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_McAlister and does he become a threat to BB ( as sharper has) or do you just write this guy off as a has been? because based on what sharper has done in this defensive scheme, do you now change the game plan to see if hes good, which he is, or attack him.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

1. Bell is a good RB but we have never been able to get much success with a guard run. And by the way a commend BB for the 4th down try, payton did 5 4th downs vs the Giants ( guess what up the middle and failed). Failed 2x on the goal up the middle vs them.

2. I sympathize believe me Ive heard the same all year. This is the best OL you will face. They have been #1-2 for 3 years, most wonder why brees is so good, its this OL. He even brought them to the pro bowl with him and payed for everything. If your going to take any player seriously on the saints id tell you watch the OL. They are that good and deep. Thats one reason for our run game stats. Which is comical when you think about that we cant beat the middle run.

3. Agreed collapse the pocket. I wouldn't blitz at all, unless you start losing the trench war, which, not try to be egotistic, its very easy to look up , you will probably have a huge problem with.

I am interested on your opinion.. how good is chris Mcalister now Chris McAlister - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and does he become a threat to BB ( as sharper has) or do you just write this guy off as a has been? because based on what sharper has done in this defensive scheme, do you now change the game plan to see if hes good, which he is, or attack him.

Sharper is good so you avoid him. McAlister has been out of the game, test him early.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Good post.

Payton is also a pretty aggressive play caller so the defense should expect him to go for it on 4th and short.

I also didn't like the delay of game penalties that kept coming up during the Colts game. Crowd noise is definitely going to be a factor, so hopefully the offense has straightened out those issues.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sharper is good so you avoid him. McAlister has been out of the game, test him early.

Agreed. There's no need to challenge Sharper. Plenty of other folks to attack. It's about wining the game, not about machismo. Look at the NE-Baltimore game week 4 - Ed Reed was a non-factor.

I think TB goes over the top to Randy Moss early and stretches the NO defense out a bit. Saints have given up 6 plays of 40 yards or more. And after starting with no passing plays of 40 yards or more in their first 5 games, the Pats have had 7 in their last 5.

 

[pherein]

Agreed. There's no need to challenge Sharper. Plenty of other folks to attack. It's about wining the game, not about machismo. Look at the NE-Baltimore game week 4 - Ed Reed was a non-factor.

I think TB goes over the top to Randy Moss early and stretches the NO defense out a bit. Saints have given up 6 plays of 40 yards or more. And after starting with no passing plays of 40 yards or more in their first 5 games, the Pats have had 7 in their last 5.

so do I, you will go long and deep off the mark. and its what Im hoping for. The only score of 50 or more on us where run plays. Best way to get an interception is to test this saints D that is built for that moment and only that moment, its a mistake but I wish it. Why even try, just beat it down the field, but I agree temptation is to much for TB, and we will be waiting for that pass.

 

[TucsonSaint]

Nice series of posts Pherein. Since your comments were spread out over several points, I'll just encapsulate my thoughts into one response.

1. Very interesting to hear about the Saints not being very effective running up the middle. Thanks for the info.
2. No disrespect to your OL, but we've been hearing all season about how good other teams OLs are, such as the Jets and Ravens lines. We have a very physical and powerful DL, and I don't think they'll get beat up or pushed around by anyone.
3. I didn't mean to suggest that we should do lots of blitzing in this game. That's not our style, and I agree it probably works to Brees' advantage. I think we will primarily depend on our DL to collapse the pocket. But I think we will blitz seletively with our DBs, who can be very effective.

Not Pherein but I have to totally disagree with him saying we can't run up the middle. In fact I would say that is our strength in the running game. I don't like to make blanket statements when it comes to football but IMHO we have the best set of guards in the league and they are nasty. In fact we are tied for fourth in ypc at 4.8 as a team. You don't get that by not being able to run the ball up the middle.

 

[pherein]

Not Pherein but I have to totally disagree with him saying we can't run up the middle. In fact I would say that is our strength in the running game. I don't like to make blanket statements when it comes to football but IMHO we have the best set of guards in the league and they are nasty.

appreciate the impute not accurate, if you would like I can pull the numbers. N.O. run up the middle is at the bottom of the league, I think #24 in the nfl

 

[Patjew]

That's 18 feet right there boyeee!

1. That is pretty amazing.

2. Are you Flavor Flav?

 

[TucsonSaint]

appreciate the impute not accurate, if you would like I can pull the numbers. N.O. run up the middle is at the bottom of the league, I think #24 in the nfl

You obviously look at just numbers. Off the top of my head who has the most carries down by the endzone? I would guess it is the saints so that is going to skew any data that you have.

You can look at numbers all you want but the facts are that we can run up the middle and YOU ARE DEAD WRONG.