4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why going for it was right

If he punted it, Manning would have gone deep and drawn ANOTHER pass interference call at about the same spot they were already at. They had the ball with 2 min. left, why give it back when you have a chance to just close the game out? It was the right move, it just was the wrong play.

And you know this how? Manning had thrown up two ducks that got picked off in the game. You punt the ball and make him earn it... you don't gift wrap it for him to take.

 

[MVPKiller]

Re: Why going for it was right

And you know this how? Manning had thrown up two ducks that got picked off in the game. You punt the ball and make him earn it... you don't gift wrap it for him to take.

I know this because I am from the future, where BB punted it and we still lost the game. I am just giving my opinion... since you know better, you should be our head coach.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why going for it was right

I know this because I am from the future, where BB punted it and we still lost the game. I am just giving my opinion... since you know better, you should be our head coach.

Nice copout.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Bottom line is that Peyton was making some bad decisions and our chances to win would have gone up tenfold if we had punted (great job on the punts last night too, by the way) and gave them a long field to drive. I really can't believe that there are that many people in here that support this decision. Chalk it up to be inebriated by the Kool-Aid I guess.[/QUOTE]

Exactly, he threw some bad passes and two picks. The punting was great all night. The prior TD drive by Indy was helped greatly by that very borderline PI call.
Maybe Manning drives them 65 or 70 yds for the game winning TD. But, maybe he only drives them 55 yds and they come up short. Maybe we could have even thrown in a corner blitz on the first play....

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: Why going for it was right

I haven't read all the threads, but as long as people second guess, why not go back a play?

The main thing to do differently with regard to offensive playcalling might be on the play BEFORE, 3rd and 2, which was an incomplete pass to Welker on an out route.

If it is going to be 4 down territory for you, then QB sneak on 3rd and 2. Worst case is you have 4th and inches, then you QB sneak again.

Obviously using a short yardage back would be even better, but Sammy Morris is the guy and is out, there is less confidence in Law Firm or dancing Maroney.

Personally I don't think the Colts D-line has enough "bricks in the butt" to stop 2 sneaks up the middle for 1.5 yards. I know that they are bigger than they have been in the past, but recall the earlier Brady sneak for 3+ yards.

just my 2 cents, and sorry if this thought has already been conveyed

 

[MVPKiller]

Re: Why going for it was right

Nice copout.

Yeah that's what it was. I support his decision to go for it and control the ball, and I said why, what am I copping out of?

 

[PrairiePat]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Did you seriously just say that? Giving the ball to Kyle Orton, much less PEYTON MANNING, on the 30 yard line is a death wish.

C'mon Kon, Manning gave our GOAT qb and his offense the same chance earlier in the quarter and we didn't score a TD. What's the NFL percentage of TDs in the red zone this year? Maybe 50%? And the Colts were 10 yards outside that. Face it, the D had a chance to win it, and failed.

That being said, it's clear that BB figured his chances of getting the 2 yards was better than the chances of stopping Manning, so I certainly don't see his decision as a vote of confidence for the D. BB saw the writing on the wall, and decided that taking a risk to keep Manning off the field was worth it.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Re: Why going for it was right

No!!! Please tell me we're not rehashing this!!! Please go back to the atlanta post game thread for dozens of pages of discussion on this EXACT TOPIC and cites to academic journals on this topic.

Agreed, the topic has already been hashed out, sides are drawn and entrenched and everyone feels like crap. It's a good recipe to just move on and try to think about the joy we'll get when this team pounds the hell out of the Jets instead of getting wound up in a big internet argument.

 

[Theplayer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I haven't read any posts yet, but I'm sure BB is getting killed. IMO, it was a good call...and I was glad they went for it as it was unfolding live.Pats defense was gassed, I had zero faith that the Pats D would stop Manning from scoring a TD...time was not a factor, IMO. Brady with a 4th and 2, I'll take that bet all day, every day...The odds are in the Pats favor that they pick it up and win the game.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Why going for it was right

Thanks for posting the numbers. They do add info.

I didn't really need them when you consider that the Patriots O did well against the Colts all game (meaning, that 4 and 2 number should be higher) and that our D was spent and Peyton was shredding it (meaning that 45% number after a punt should be higher).

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why going for it was right

Yeah that's what it was. I support his decision to go for it and control the ball, and I said why, what am I copping out of?

"Maybe you should coach the team" is a copout because we've all seen what Belichick did and where it got us. Our chances to win the game GREATLY increase if we punt the ball away and give Manning a long field to work with. Bottom line is that he threw up a couple of ugly ducks in this game that were picked off and his last TD was greatly assisted by an iffy pass interference call on Butler. People act like it was a foregone conclusion that the defense would have collapsed. And again, I ask this... what was the difference between this game and the game in 2003 when the defense was on it's heals? Answer: not much. The only difference was that we knew when to punt the ball back then.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Why going for it was right

Peyton is good, but people are rationalizing this as if the Colts would have scored anyways from their own 30, which is pretty ridiculous.

You're also assuming, of course, that Hanson didn't suddenly morph back into Bad Hanson, and leave them at the 50 or something.

And that a DB covering Wayne doesn't fall down, etc., etc.

 

[tombonneau]

Re: Why going for it was right

Not sure if that math is correct, but I think it was the right decision for the simple fact that the way Manning was torching the Pats D, it was a matter of fait accompli that he would get the Colts to the Pats 30, didn't matter if he started on his own 30 or was already n Pats territory.

Everyone in the stadium knew that.

So the game was going to come down to stopping the Colts in the red zone, you may as well already be down there with more time and a fresher defense.

Now burning both TOs in hindsight was bad, but at the time I wasn't exactly livid.

The one decision I *will* question is running a two-yard pattern on 4&2 .....

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

C'mon Kon, Manning gave our GOAT qb and his offense the same chance earlier in the quarter and we didn't score a TD. What's the NFL percentage of TDs in the red zone this year? Maybe 50%? And the Colts were 10 yards outside that. Face it, the D had a chance to win it, and failed.

That being said, it's clear that BB figured his chances of getting the 2 yards was better than the chances of stopping Manning, so I certainly don't see his decision as a vote of confidence for the D. BB saw the writing on the wall, and decided that taking a risk to keep Manning off the field was worth it.

When was the last time you saw a team with a six point lead go for it on 4th down at their own 30?

 

[upstater1]

Re: Why going for it was right

If a bus was coming and you had a 90% chance of getting across the street without getting hit, would you do it?

If I was being chased by an axe-wielding murderer on my side of the street, yes.

 

[aluminum seats]

Re: Why going for it was right

"Maybe you should coach the team" is a copout because we've all seen what Belichick did and where it got us. Our chances to win the game GREATLY increase if we punt the ball away and give Manning a long field to work with. Bottom line is that he threw up a couple of ugly ducks in this game that were picked off and his last TD was greatly assisted by an iffy pass interference call on Butler. People act like it was a foregone conclusion that the defense would have collapsed. And again, I ask this... what was the difference between this game and the game in 2003 when the defense was on it's heals? Answer: not much. The only difference was that we knew when to punt the ball back then.

This is just an opinion you have--saying that the Pats chances to win if they punt increase GREATLY isn't true just because you think it is, or because you put it in caps. Outside of the D's hurt feelings, the numbers would put the Pats chances of getting 2 yards + their chances of stopping the Colts from the 30 ahead of the Pats stopping the Colts from their 30.

 

[MVPKiller]

Re: Why going for it was right

"Maybe you should coach the team" is a copout because we've all seen what Belichick did and where it got us. Our chances to win the game GREATLY increase if we punt the ball away and give Manning a long field to work with. Bottom line is that he threw up a couple of ugly ducks in this game that were picked off and his last TD was greatly assisted by an iffy pass interference call on Butler. People act like it was a foregone conclusion that the defense would have collapsed. And again, I ask this... what was the difference between this game and the game in 2003 when the defense was on it's heals? Answer: not much. The only difference was that we knew when to punt the ball back then.

So you have all the problems, what is the answer? Fire BB? HE WENT FOR IT, WE LOST, be pissed off about it, but losing your mind about it doesn't change that fact at all. To me, I feel comfort in knowing Bill plays football like I play Madden... IE going for it on 4th down deep in your own territory...

 

[PrairiePat]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

When was the last time you saw a team with a six point lead go for it on 4th down at their own 30?

You have a chance to end the game with 2 yds from your HOF QB and juggernaut offense. On the opposing sideline is another HOF QB and his own unstoppable offense waiting for a chance to tear up your defense for the 3rd time this quarter; their running game is averaging almost 8 yards a crack in the quarter as well. You're in a hostile environment and you've lost several key defenders. Is it really that surprising a decision?

 

[RayClay]

Re: Why going for it was right

6O% is barely better than a coin flip.

How many variables are involved in a seventy yard drive compared to a 28? Did you compute that? also, figure how many short plays a defense can give up and hold when the offense must score a touchdown in that eventy yards.

Just want to make sure you're using all the relevant data.

So 60% chance of an almost guaranteed loss, or the lead, field position and the ability to play off or take risks since you know a field goal isn't an option.

I don't walk in front of busses myself.

 

[brdmaverick]

Re: Why going for it was right

I agree.

Just because the play didn't work doesn't mean it was a bad call.

I'm glad that Belicheck had the guts to make that call, because you know that 31 other head coaches probably wouldn't have in that situation. I'm glad we have the one who has the guts. IT didn't work, but given the situation it was the right call, and I'm glad he recognized it.

After the third down incompletion, I turned to my brother and said "we just lost the game." Are you going to tell me that no one else out there felt this way? I think most of us did.
When I saw the Pats offense going for it on fourth down it once again gave me hope that the came was still to be won.

The real difficulty I had was after the failed conversion....Do I root for the defense or do I hope the Colts score quickly (giving us time for a field goal).