3rd seed is a lot better than 4th this year

[Froob]

That's actually my 3rd worst loss as a fan, behind the 2 NYG losses. That game was a killer.

One thing that I do remember is that we were very, very lucky to make it out of San Diego alive though. Had it not been for their horrible decision NOT to just fall on the Brady pick (his 3rd of the game) and decide to run it out, we never would have had the opportunity to make a crazy strip of the fumble and somehow re-gain possession.

It's also a prime example of why it's difficult to play 3 games in a row with no break, 2 coming on the road. By the AFCCG in Indy there were tons of guys who were not only sick, but also extremely tired and out of gas. Whether or not the flying back and forth without a week off had anything to do with that or not is anyone's guess, but I think we'd all agree that it certainly didn't help at all.

While true, a big reason the teams with the bye went to the super bowl were because they were far better. 05 and 09 probably weren't going to the super bowl with or without the bye. Although without the hose job in denver who knows...

 

[coolguy]

I know It sucks, but the jets are a key for potential patriots superbowl.

The jets as a 6th seed could knock off the colts/bengals in the wild card round and then go to denver and beat the broncos.

While the patriots as a 2 would just have to worry about the chiefs before facing the jets again.
1 broncos
2 patriots
3 colts
4 bengals
5 chiefs
6 jets

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

It's week 10 so playoff speculation will be heating up. But even with that, the 3-4 seed 'what is optimum' discussion is really pushing the edge on the speculation.
With the division looking semi promising (for discussion purposes I assume they will win it), the obvious goal is that ultra important bye (the bye is HUGE despite any argument to the contrary). And as of right not the bye is a 3 team race between the Patriots, Cincy, Indy (with Denver or KC looking likely to claim the other bye). Obviously there are enough games for these assumptions to change but a 3 team race is what this early discussion appears to be as of now.

So the question is how do we get to the bye other than the obvious 'win all remaining games'? I think it comes down to a 6-1 record making it a strong and comfortable likelihood. 5-2 keeps it a better than 50% though one additional favorable result from Indy or Cincy may be needed (the tie break may be in play). Going 4-3 puts it uncomfortably below 60% probably requiring multiple favorable results in week 16 and 17 for the bye to happen (tie break could be a killer here). 3-4 and the bye is 'buh-bye' and drama over the division crown is now in play.

Cincy Schedule: Indy, SD, Cle, Bal, Bal, Pitt, Minn
Patriots schedule: Den, Car, Mia, Cle, Bal, , Buff, Hou
Indy Schedule: KC, Cincy, Tenn, Tenn, Ari, STL, Hou, Jax

As of right now the schedules don't appear to obviously favor or disfavor one team over another, so "schedule" is not an excuse (at least as of right now).

 

[Fencer]

This thread got obsolete even sooner than I expected it would.

Cleanly in the 2nd seed position as of now.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The 2 seed is ours to piss away.
That said, with the utter decimation (worse that that, look it up) of the starting D, nothing is assured. Nothing.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

The 2 seed is ours to piss away.
That said, with the utter decimation (worse that that, look it up) of the starting D, nothing is assured. Nothing.

We could get into the 1st seed if all goes to plan.

 

[supafly]

I know It sucks, but the jets are a key for potential patriots superbowl.

The jets as a 6th seed could knock off the colts/bengals in the wild card round and then go to denver and beat the broncos.

While the patriots as a 2 would just have to worry about the chiefs before facing the jets again.
1 broncos
2 patriots
3 colts
4 bengals
5 chiefs
6 jets

I hear what you're saying, but let's not worry about the media created idea that the NYJ are definitely going to the playoffs just yet.

There is currently a logjam of teams who are right behind them including BAL, CLE, SD, TEN, and MIA (who actually has the exact same number of losses as the Jets). There are SIX teams battling for the last spot, all either with 4 or 5 losses.

The Jets are so insanely unpredictable, we don't even know that they'll beat the Bills next week....it's hard for me to pencil a team like that in the playoffs when they only have a ONE game lead with 7 left to play!!!

There are only a total of 2 teams in the entire AFC who have a worse net points total that the -62 New York Jets. They are the 2-7 Texans (-78) and the 1-8 Jaguars (-176). I find it borderline ridiculous to even be considering the Jets as a lock for the 6th spot when you take their points scored/points allowed net into consideration.

I'd be interested in re-visiting this thread with about 2-3 games remaining in a month or so halfway through December. Let's see if the Jets are still in the driver's seat then. Time will tell if they're for real, or if their 2/5 wins that were given to them from penalties helped to give them some life.

 

[supafly]

The 2 seed is ours to piss away.
That said, with the utter decimation (worse that that, look it up) of the starting D, nothing is assured. Nothing.

I hear you PWP, and I agree. One thing we have going for us is the incredible record in the months of November and December under Belichick, particularly at home.

The way I see it is that if we can go 5-2 over the last seven games, we should be in a very nice position for the #2 seed at 12-4; especially when Indy (3 losses) and Cincy (4 losses) are pretty much already at the four loss mark with 7 more to play.

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that a 5-2 record will surely get the #2 seed.

We could get into the 1st seed if all goes to plan.

Sure, we definitely "could," but I'd have to think that the odds of getting the #2 are much higher, and that's why most are looking at the #2. A first round bye is still a first round bye, so that's really all that matters in my opinion.

#1 or #2 will be great--considering the circumstances and all of the "popular opinions" from the fans and experts that had us at 10-6 at best.