2020 Divisional round weekend

[Patriot Missile]

Disagree with Brady beating the Saints. He’s been clobbered twice now by their defense with no answer.

Funny though, if by chance Brady does get by Brees and the Saints I think he’s going to destroy GB where as if the Saints play Rodgers they are going to lose. All about the matchups.

 

[Steve102]

This is the Super Bowl that the world deserves. I don't get any Patriots fan who wouldn't want to see this.

I'm not as bitter as I was over the break up. Gronk can go eff himself still, however.

 

[italian pat patriot]

All 4 games looks great !

 

[denverpatsfan]

Saints, Green Bay, Ravens and Chefs all advance. I'll be rooting for Barfalo and Tom but I think the run ends this weekend.

 

[sb1]

Bucs 31 Saints 28. Maybe an OT game.
Packers 24 Rams 17. I think Rams take it if it was in LA.
Bills 27 Ravens 24
Chefs 38 Browns 28

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Rodgers will be going home before brady. What a cup cake schedule they have played. I feel the rams matchup very well . I got the rams, bills, chiefs, bucs. Yes the bucs. You figure the Bucs will show up. If the Bucs get blown out again it will be an indictment on this coaching staff. They should have a game plan in place.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Bucs 31 Saints 28. Maybe an OT game.
Packers 24 Rams 17. I think Rams take it if it was in LA.
Bills 27 Ravens 24
Chefs 38 Browns 28

Rams defense will give Rodgers a lot of problems and they got a shutdown corner.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Rams defense will give Rodgers a lot of problems and they got a shutdown corner.

It’s gonna be on adams to win against the ram secondary.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Rodgers will be going home before brady. What a cup cake schedule they have played. I feel the rams matchup very well . I got the rams, bills, chiefs, bucs. Yes the bucs. You figure the Bucs will show up. If the Bucs get blown out again it will be an indictment on this coaching staff. They should have a game plan in place.

Why is it all of a sudden going to be the coaching staff's fault if they lose? Shouldn't you let them play the game first?

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Why is it all of a sudden going to be the coaching staff's fault if they lose? Shouldn't you let them play the game first?

Did you watch the second game against the saints? They made no adjustments whatsoever. From the OC to the DC. The coaching staff blew chunks in that game. If they have a disaster like that it falls on the coaches. This is where brady might miss bill. Bill always had a game plan.

 

[pazrul72]

When I am picking games I try to have an assortment of likely what if’s. There will be a defensive game. There will be a shoot out. There will be an upset. There will be a close game where the better team just pulls it out. I see this weekend having all of those it’s just picking which one will be which. Will it be the browns or Rams with the upset in a shootout or the defensive slug fest? Based on Rodgers coming up small when games matter the most and liking defense more then offense in the post season I think the Rams send them Packing as my upset for the week. Chiefs have too much fire power and out score the browns for the shootout. That leaves two regular games where the better team just pulls out a win 27-24 style in the Bills and Saints. Both of those games are pretty close to 50-50 and hard to pick and it wouldn’t surprise me if they go the other way. With Bucs Saints it’s based on history of already losing twice and being a bad match up. That said the Bucs have been playing well, have the greatest post season player of all time, and losing 3 times in a year to one team is tough. For the Bills, even though they don’t have fans in the stands, who would be absolutely rabid if they were, I still give them the 3 point home field and the win.

 

[BobDigital]

I've done a pretty good amount of research on these teams and I think I'm ready to do some picks and breakdowns. Let's go!

Game 1: 4:35 Rams @ Packers

First off, there is every indication Donald is playing and will be fairly effective at this point, which bodes well for LA. Kupp should be okay. Goff is hurt, but even with his injury he was reasonably effective vs. the Seahawks. He started with 4 incompletions. After that he wen 9/15 for 155 yards. Not a great day, but I think he figured something out. He'll be serviceable. So with those injury questions answered we can move on.

The Rams are going to give GB trouble. More than people think. As I looked over GB's schedule something came to mind. They haven't played many good defenses this year. The best Ds they played in PPG were The Saints 3rd, Bucs 8th, Colts 11th, Bears 14th. Needless to say, I looked at that Saints game a bit closer. The Saints gave up 37 points, but they were surprisingly bad. Getting beat over the top often, very atypical for how they play D. And not just a bit. They were beat fairly bad. Adams wasn't even in the game. It was just a bad day for them. Against the Bucs they didn't do well, but that's just one game. Against the Colts they got 31, but were forced into errors and given help from the other team.

This GB offense is really good, but they haven't seen anything like the Rams yet if they play up to their level IMO. Maybe if the Saints played up to their ability at the time they would've, but they didn't. The Packers will be facing the best D they have all year in the playoffs by a large amount. That isn't good for them, but good for the Rams. Add in they just lost David Bakhtiari to an injury in their last game and that could be trouble. He's their LT and best OL man. So Rodgers, who hasn't been pressured much this year, will have issues with this DL and this D.

Does that mean the Rams will win? After thinking about it I think they have a better chance than people think. But they need to create a defensive score and keep GB under 24, which will be hard. GB loves to start fast. Their offense is fairly streaky and has been playing well all year including the last few weeks. The Rams need to use the element of surprise, by being a better D than the ones they have seen in the past, and punch them in the nose early and often. Don't let them be the front runner like they want to. If they can do that and score some points that don't come from their offense they have a good shot. I think the MVP curse will catch up with GB at some point. Everything is telling me to take GB. So i'm going to do the opposite and pick an upset against a team that has a high ceiling and can show something new to GB they haven't seen all year. And can attack them where they are weak right now. Surprise upset pick

Rams 23 GB 19 – A Pick 6 by Rodgers and a few big throws over the top by Goff make this unlikely upset happen. GB has issues jumping on the Rams early, a first for them almost all season, and pressure gets home constantly ending drives and maybe even causes a FF for an easy FG chance. Ramsay is just the kind of CB who is a bad match up for Adams size and speed wise. GB isn't particularly good at stopping the run, and that has been covered up by their offense forcing teams to pass. If the Rams keep it close, which I think they will, they can run all game with their very solid run game and hammer that weakness home. It will also help shorten the game, which tends to be good for the less talented offense. MVP curse continues.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Did you watch the second game against the saints? They made no adjustments whatsoever. From the OC to the DC. The coaching staff blew chunks in that game. If they have a disaster like that it falls on the coaches. This is where brady might miss bill. Bill always had a game plan.

Bucs coaching philosophy, "We doan need no steenkin' adjustments!"

 

[BobDigital]

Game 2: Saturday 8:15 Ravens @ Bills

The Bills were one of the most disappointing teams last week. But there is a big silver lining. What has got them here stayed solid. Allen was efficient and made plays. Diggs did damage. They could have played better, but it wasn't all bad. The main issue this game will be a big one the next. They couldn't stop the run, something they've had trouble with all year. Allowing 4.6 YPC is one of the worst. Big problem vs the Ravens. Can they stop or limit their run game, even if they devote an extra defender?

The Ravens played a hobbled Titans opponent and came out pretty flat. After the first quarter they really started to turn it around and dominated the rest of the game, even while Jackson had issues getting their passing attack going. The defense looked as good as it has all season arguably. This was a big revenge game for them an they played like it. However, did they get too hyped up and already play their super bowl? Their defense is ranked well, but in reality it isn't typically as good as it is ranked. The Run game for the Ravens chews clock and covers for this unit at times. They give up 4.6 YPC. Some weeks they surrender 50 yards and some 150 yards. It all depends. As for their pass D, it is good not great, it depends on if their rush gets home.

As far as injuries go, the Ravens come in the more banged up team. The OL in particular may have some health issues and that could be a big problem, but we won't know till game time. Another wild card in my mind is penalties and discipline. Both teams committed way to many penalties in the regular season, among the most in the NFL. In the weeks leading up to the playoffs the Bills have been able to play under control more and have lessened that. The Ravens if anything are committed more. That photo op at mid field on the opposing team's logo after the game sealing interception with 1:50 till on the clock by half the team isn't a sign of team moral, but speaks to a problem of discipline. That isn't just a bad look, it's bad building a team that can win deep into the playoffs. To me this is the one invisible issue not being discussed in this match up which may be enough to tip the scales.

Going into this game both the Ravens and Bills have played well. The Bills came in on a 6 game streak. Solidly beating each team, including Miami which did well this year. They also scored handily against solid defenses. They weren't exactly facing murders row, but the deserved each win clearly. The Raven got hot on a 5 game win streak, but i have a few issues with it. The beat the Cowboys, Bengals, Giants and Jags. Yes, they managed to blow some of them out, but that is the basement of the NFL in the last 3 weeks who were likely in tank mode. Their good win was against Cleveland 47-42. But looking back at that game, they got outplayed and should have lost, but it wasn't like they were bad. Over the course of the season, when the Ravens faced 2nd tier teams like the Titans and Browns they did well going 2-1. When they faced top teams like Pitt (when they were playing well) and KC they lost 0-3. The question is are the Bills more like those teams or more like the 2nd tier ones.

As for the Bills, they remain a bit unproven too. They only faced 1 top team this year in KC and lost. They faced Pitt on their way down. Along with the Titans, Rams, Dolphins, Seahawks and Cardinals and now Indy. They won more than they lost, but overall they haven't shown the consistency you'd like to see if you are a Bills fans. That being said, they have certainly seemed to pick up their play overall and solidly beat bad to okay teams the last 6 weeks.

Bills 31 Ravens 20 - I think the game is closer than the score, which will be a one score game until late in the 4th. The key difference for me is the Bills are coming off one of their worst games in a while against a team they were lucky to avoid OT against, and the Ravens had one of their best defensive 3 quarters in a while. I see the Bills coming out will a lot more sharpness than last game, while the Ravens are still going to be high on getting their revenge win. Even without one of their main RBs the Bills should be able to successfully attack this Ravens D both on the ground and in the air to some reasonable degree, though not easily.

The Ravens will run successfully on the Bills, but they know it's coming and after experiencing Cam twice this year have a point of reference for how to limit it, if only a bit. They should be able to depend on their pass D and leave it on a bit of an island and make Lamar beat them mostly in the air, putting 8 in the box all game. Getting run on the way they did last game will probably help them be prepared for this week a bit more than they would otherwise be. Penalties will be a key unspoken about factor too. Those 40 extra yards and extra few first downs the Bills will get over the Ravens will be key.

 

[Triumph]

Did you watch the second game against the saints? They made no adjustments whatsoever. From the OC to the DC. The coaching staff blew chunks in that game. If they have a disaster like that it falls on the coaches. This is where brady might miss bill. Bill always had a game plan.

Win the war and not the battle.

BB would save his best adjustments for the post season as well. Once you use the schemes that will potentially counter moves against you, that bell has been rung and is on film for all to break down.

The Bucs defense is very underrated. Tampa has the # 1 run defense and New Orleans relies heavily on Kamara.

 

[BobDigital]

Game 3: Sunday 3:05 Browns @ Chiefs

KC is a pretty easy team to talk about, they have a top offense and an okay to potentially pretty good D. They went 14-1 (game 16 didn't matter). They beat top teams like the Bills, Bucs, Ravens and Saints. So clearly they are far and away the best team, right? I'll get back to that one.... Right now what we know is they're fairly healthy and carrying a nice win streak into the playoffs.

Cleveland got a bunch of lucky breaks last week and it looks like they won their super bowl already. They got a 25 year monkey off their back and are probably just happy to be here. Their defense is suspect and their offense while good isn't consistent. They put up 40+ 3 times, and 10 or less points 4 times. It was fairly scatter shot. If KC plays any kind of competent D and does well to prevent the considerable talents of CLV players to overwhelm them they should win.

So easy win right? Take the over on the 10 point spread? No... KC has issues. Issues they've had most of the year but particularly the 2nd half. They don't drive down and score points like they have the past 2 years (the times when Mahomes was healthy that is). They look for big plays and live or die by them with starts and stops. They won their last 7 games by 1 score or less. Often they go full quarters unable to do much. Mahomes takes more sacks and hits than he should and has thrown more interceptable passes this year than years past under that pressure or trying to force an unneeded deep shot. He just hasn't been made to pay for many of them yet.

So why did he do better this year than last year? Mahomes, Hill, Kelce an Hardman played every game and were healthy. Watkins and CEH were there for most of the year. It was the healthiest the core players have been since 2018 in which they averaged 35 PPG with a similar cast. In 2019 the regular season was hampered strongly by injuries, so you can't really use it to judge 2020. Not to mention their RB was a big step down. Compared to that 2018 team Mahomes and this offense is less effective, taking more sacks, getting pressured more and scoring less, with an equally capable cast. Why you ask? The leagu has tape on Mahomes and co and learned how to play them. Most of the league anyway. It was absolutely no surprise that some of the best games for Hill, Kelce and Mahomes came against NFC teams who saw them for the first time, even when they were suppose to have good Ds like the Bucs and Saints.

And even in those games where they got to face these teams for the first time, it wasn't like things came as easily as they did two years ago. The best example to what I'm talking about is the Bucs, while they may have watched the tape, it wasn't until they saw the speed and skill of Mahomes to Hill in person that they TRULY understood. In the second half after the Bucs adjusted and knew exactly what they were dealing with we saw what a difference that made. It reminds me a bit of when Brady/Moss was unleashed on the league for the first time. It worked wonders all regular season pretty much, but teams were starting to catch up in the playoffs. We're seeing that scenario play out now with younger players where a massive injury to one doesn't derail it. This KC offense is very good right now, but it isn't the monstrous unstoppable force it was. It will stop and start. The talent is legit, but the play calling and scheme that made it explode in 18' isn't taking teams by surprise anymore. It's now just one of the really good offenses in the NFL, not the best. That's probably either GB or TB at this moment. Maybe the Bills. When you look closely at the teams KC has played this year, particularly on the defensive side they should have done better. Besides running over Baltimore in unstoppable fashion for the first half of that game, along with the first halves of the NO and TB games they haven't looked much like the KC of old to me.

The question is this: will their offense stall vs Cleveland which has an inferior D? I see no reason why it wouldn't to some degree (comparatively to what people expect when they think of this offense that is). They'll still score in the 30s. But I don't think they hit 40. Most of the defenders on the Browns have seen this team before back in 2018 or on other teams. So I don't think they'll be caught sleeping by the speed of Hill, the improvisational ability of Mahomes, the athleticism and size of Kelce or the schemes of Reid. That's likely a big point in their favor. Though they'll give up a nice chunk of points early until they settle in.

On the offensive side for Cleveland there really isn't an easy way for KC to stop them. Their best player on D (Chris Jones) will likely be kept in check by that very good OL of the Browns. They will be able to run on and pass on their D. Their offense is a bad match up for KC honestly. The problem is the Browns offenses in incredibly inconsistent. It comes down to which offense shows up.

KC 34 CLV 27 - I don't think people are giving the Browns nearly enough of a chance in this game. In large part because I believe KC won't score more than 35-37, and will probably score less if this year in any indication. The Browns can score anywhere between 13-50 and it wouldn't surprise me. As odd as this is to say, the outcome of this game has more to do with the Browns than KC. KC will jump on the Browns early. They will score. Then they will struggle the rest of the game after the Browns adjust. KC can't stop the run, and they won't stop the pass if they don't get pressure, which i don't think they will. The question is are the Browns just happy to be here? Will they be as inconsistent offensively as they've been all year? I think they will be. But if both teams play the best game they've shown their capable of up to this point, KC loses.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Rams defense will give Rodgers a lot of problems and they got a shutdown corner.

I don't know if I see the Rams heading up to Lambeau and playing well in the cold. We have seen Eli do it to the Packers twice in the playoffs on the road, but the Giants were used to playing in cold conditions. The Rams? Not so much.

 

[Triumph]

I don't know if I see the Rams heading up to Lambeau and playing well in the cold. We have seen Eli do it to the Packers twice in the playoffs on the road, but the Giants were used to playing in cold conditions. The Rams? Not so much.

Supposedly a big snowstorm headed to GB on Friday.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

I don't know if I see the Rams heading up to Lambeau and playing well in the cold. We have seen Eli do it to the Packers twice in the playoffs on the road, but the Giants were used to playing in cold conditions. The Rams? Not so much.

Cold won’t mean squat. Rodgers will choke before brady ever does. Also i just like the matchups . Ramsey was all pro this year. If you take out adams that offense will struggle.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Supposedly a big snowstorm headed to GB on Friday.

It will be 33 at game time. That’s not bad.