12/8 Revised Possible Pats Offseason

[carolinatony]

Thoughts on Taylor Price, WR, Ohio WR 6'1 - 209 lbs.
Late round pickup

Taylor Price is not very well known outside of the Mid-American Conference (especially since the Bobcats of Ohio would prefer to keep the ball on the ground), but Price has had a solid career in Athens. As a true freshman he was thrown into the mix and caught nine passes for 77 yards, and also returned some kick-offs and punts. In 2007 his role was expanded: He caught 33 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns, but he did a lot more than that. In addition to catching the ball and returning some kicks, Price also carried the ball six times for 23 yards and threw two passes for 50 yards and a touchdown.
In 2008 Price set a school record by catching 14 passes against Wyoming and ended the season ranking fourth all-time catching 51 passes in a single season. Those 51 catches went for 694 yards and five touchdowns. Through 11 games in 2009, Price is putting up similar numbers during his senior campaign. He has 48 receptions for 639 yards and five scores.

Price will continue to go under the radar since he plays on a team that lacks a history of successful receivers at any level. His numbers are not that great and never will be at Ohio, but he is a good receiver who runs good routes and has a decent combination of size and speed. He may not get drafted very high, but he could turn into a decent third or fourth receiver in the NFL

 

[mayoclinic]

Love most of your picks. 2 picks I don't like:
1) Pierre-Paul - raw like crazy and IMO there will be better players available. Besides, with McClain and Merriman, I'm not even sure if there's much room. A 3-4 DE like Bailey would be amazing here, or even a more traditional 4-3 DE type (think Jarvis Green role). I've mentioned Brandon Graham before, but there will be plenty of those kind of guys available here.
2) Barksdale - I know you love this guy, but I really just don't see it. Besides, with Vollmer/Kazcur/Levoir we seem set for the immediate future anyways.

Finally, I think you've neglected the 2nd biggest need on the team (behind pass rushing OLB/DE) and that's a 3rd receiving threat. Whether it's a TE or a WR, we need a solid mid range option. I like Watson, but he isn't that guy. Tate could be that person, but I'd rather have a vet just in case. Aiken's looked promising too so that might be an option. Maybe a mid round pick for a vet WR?

I'm fine with Allen Bailey in the 2nd and a DE/OLB like Jeremy Beal or Austen Lane in the early 3rd. I listed Pierre-Paul because of his ridiculous upside, but I'm conflicted about him. I agree he's very raw, and he seems a bit awkward with his body, whereas Lane seems more fluid. I think Bailey could become a fabulous 3-4 DE.

I'll stick with Barksdale, despite what you and Ochmed say. And I think that I definitely want more at OT than just Vollmer-Kaczur-Levoir. I think upgrading the RT position is a priority. If you prefer someone else like Carimi or Ducasse, fine, but I definitely want to address the position.

I'm not as big on another WR as you are. And if we did get one I'd prefer a vet to another rookie. I'm ok trading a mid round pick for a vet, but we went after 2 vets last offseason (Greg Lewis and Joey Galloway) and neither worked out too well for us.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

how is merriman playing now anyways??

anyone know

 

[bigcountry75]

I was just thinking about Sam Bradford....He showed in previous seasons that he can be a stud when healthy but how far do you guys think he will fall in this draft after being injured and having a subpar year (by his standards) when he played? I was thinking if he fell to the late 2nd or even further do we take a chance on him (I know QB isn't a need just throwing this out there)....Talk about the QB of the future when brady retires and it could give him time to fully heal up as the backup.....Or do you think Hoyer is that guy? Thanks

 

[BritPat]

how is merriman playing now anyways??

anyone know

Awfully. He's had 4 sacks of all season (and I think all four came in a two game span) and is getting very little pressure on the QB.

I look at him, his knees, and a big red light starts flashing in my mind.

 

[BelichickFan]

I was just thinking about Sam Bradford....He showed in previous seasons that he can be a stud when healthy but how far do you guys think he will fall in this draft after being injured and having a subpar year (by his standards) when he played? I was thinking if he fell to the late 2nd or even further do we take a chance on him (I know QB isn't a need just throwing this out there)....Talk about the QB of the future when brady retires and it could give him time to fully heal up as the backup.....Or do you think Hoyer is that guy? Thanks

I'm not interested unless there's the unlikely scenario that they would trade Brady after 2010 when he becomes a FA (assumed Franchise and Trade, I can't deal with the unknowns of the CBA). Not to turn this into a trade Brady thread but IF that's a possibility, this is a really deep year at QB to get a real talent and have him sit a year before playing.

That said, I expect Brady will stay and I wouldn't draft a QB high in that case.

 

[mayoclinic]

Good comments.

The offseason is always impossible to predict accurately, and it always goes in steps. So why bother trying this early?

My intent in posting these kind of threads has never been actual prediction, which I think is a waste of time. Rather, I focus on trying to outline needs and general directions, suggest ideas or ways of going, and stimulate discussion.

Some points that I wanted to make in this thread in particular:

1. Assuming an uncapped year, among players who I view as "important" only Wilfork, Watson and Bodden will be UFAs. I think that we will be aggressive about keeping our RFAs and trying to keep our UFAs (whether they look at other offers or not). I think we won't let Wilfork walk - we'll either extend him, franchise him and keep him, or franchise him and trade him for a boatload.

2. The rules for signing external FAs are actually somewhat different from what I had understood, in that the "2nd 4" of the "top 8" teams can actually sign external FAs without having to lose FAs of their own, subject to certain financial restrictions. Given our recent losing streak and the fact that this team is looking less and less like a "final 4" team, it may be that we have more opportunity to be active in FA than I had previously thought. While I don't expect the Pats to rival Dan Snyder, they have always been aggressive when they saw the need, and I don't expect this year to be an exception.

3. There are a lot of players who I expect to move on from this team. Either players whose contracts expire and are not worth re-signing (Burgess), players whose contracts expire and who are not likely to be worth the cost (Woods, Neal, maybe Faulk), or players who are not playing up to the cost of their contracts (Thomas, Springs, possibly Sanders), or players who are aging and may be moved or let go to make way for the future (Light, Neal, possibly Faulk). I can't predict them precisely, but I expect to see a lot of movement, particularly as this team has so far been the first team in the BB era to significantly underperform. I don't expect underperformance to be tolerated.

4. BB has a lot of flexibility in the draft, and will probably move around. No one knows what he will do. But he has shown a willingness to go after specific players in the past, and if there's someone he really wants (such as McClain, for example) I wouldn't put it past him to go after that player. More than in 2009, he needs some impact players and some players who bring certain qualities of drive and leadership to this team.

5. The pass rush and the OL are by far the 2 biggest areas of need that I see. I really think that BB will try and address at least part of the pass rush prior to the draft. Whether that is in FA or via trade, I have no idea. The list of available FAs is very small. But I think he would much prefer to get one pass rusher from the draft and one veteran than to need to get 2 pass rushers from the draft. If this does happen, it would allow him to go after an impact position at a position of lesser need, such as Rolando McClain at ILB or Joe Haden at CB. BB's history has always been to try and fill critical needs before the draft so that he isn't going into the draft from a position of extreme need. He did this clearly last year in free agency, filling most immediate needs prior to the draft.

I have no idea what exact moves will happen, and certainly not in what precise timeframe. But I think we will be aggressive, especially after a disappointing season. Regardless of what happens from here on out, this team has underperformed through 12 games, and has been a disappointment not in terms of their record but in terms of their consistency, ability to finish, and heart. Those are not things BB is likely to accept for 2010.

As always, the offseason is in steps. If this is indeed an uncapped year, there will be less emphasis on "savings" since Kraft will save the revenue sharing monies.

STEP ONE - BEFORE DAY ONE OF FREE AGENCY
A) What do we do with our do with own soon to be unrestricted free agents. I expect that Faulk will be re-signed.
B) I presume (always) that we sign our ERFA's and make our RFA's high enough offers to keep them (if we don't re-sign them to new contracts).
C) I have no reason to believe that Bodden or Watson would sign before testing the market.
D) I agree that Wilfork will be franchised.

STEP TWO - AFTER WE FIND OUT WHO IS RE-SIGNED BY THEIR OWN TEAMS
A) I haven't a clue who will be available. I seriously doubt that Merriman and Bush will be on our team by March 1st.
B) There is no reason to make early cuts to save money. Kraft might as well wait until camp with guys like Springs.
C) I agree that Light is likely to be a pre-draft trade if Mankins stays.
D) I don't think AD at $5M a year will bring much in trade. I suppose it doen't matter.

STEP THREE - THE DRAFT
A) We will debate this up until the 16th pick. I don' think that Belichick has any intention of moving up in a draft that doesn't have rookie salary caps. In any case, he has the picks to move up if he wants. As always, a move down is more likely for Belichick.
B) I'm fine with using our top five picks for offensive linemen, defensive ends and linebackers.

 

[mayoclinic]

Awfully. He's had 4 sacks of all season (and I think all four came in a two game span) and is getting very little pressure on the QB.

I look at him, his knees, and a big red light starts flashing in my mind.

I haven't seen Merriman play recently, but the impression I have gotten is that his play has picked up somewhat and the San Diego defense has gotten much better than they were earlier in the season.

Regardless of what specific player we target, I think it's likely that BB will go after somehow acquiring (through FA or trade) a veteran pass rusher to fill his immediate need, and then draft a young pass rusher in the first 2 rounds.

A guy who I could see BB potentially targeting is DE/OLB Mathias Kiwanuka of the Giants - 6'5", 265#, 4.7 speed, has played OLB as well as DE, and is 26 years old. 2010 is the last year of his contract, and there have been rumors that the Giants might be willing to trade him given the need to extend Justin Tuck and Osi Umeniyora. Even though Umeniyora has had some issues this season, I still think extending those guys will take precedence over keeping Kiwi for the Giants, and that they will look to draft a replacement, and might try to trade him in the offseason while he still has some value. I have no idea what it might take to get him, or whether we could put together a reasonable offer, but I think he would be worth consideration. He had 8 sacks in 2008 and has had 4 so far this year, but he certainly would add more of a pass rushing presence than we have at present.

I also think that if BB does get a veteran pass rusher prior to the draft and still has 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, that it would free him up to use at least one of them on a "luxury" pick in an area other than the pass rush or the OL/DL. I could see players like ILB Rolando McClain, CB Joe Haden, or TE Jermaine Greshman getting consideration if this were the case, who we might otherwise not be able to consider.

 

[bigcountry75]

Thanks Mayo....I appreciate the time and info you put out there and it gives me something to do during down time at work.....

 

[BritPat]

A bit more about Merriman.....

This year, he's had four sacks (two against the Raiders in week 8, and two against the Giants in week 9); he's had four QB hits (two in week 2 against the Ravens, and then one each in week 7 against the Chiefs and week 11 against the Broncos); and he's also had 10 pressures on the year. He's also got 25 total tackles so far this year (20 solo).

Just to focus on the last 3 weeks - he's had 3 pressures (all against the Eagles in week 10 - nothing since), one QB hit (in week 11 against the Broncos), and three total tackles (two solo). The other week against the Chiefs, he had just one tackle. No pressures, no hits, no sacks. Although he did have one missed tackle.

Thanks to the guys at PFF.com for that:

ProFootballFocus.com - By Player

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Marcus Spears DE, Johnny Jolly DT, Ryan Pickett DT are a few players I like. Two of them are from Green Bay, and the Packers already drafted BJ Raji last year so you can bet one of them should be on there way out of GB.

At WR there's Malcolm Floyd, Lance Moore, Josh Reed... a bunch of good #3 options.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

As much as I think Bush would be a fantastic asset for the Pats, it would be wise for him not to sign with New England. They ignore their RB's too much.

If the price is right and he wants to come to New England, the Pats should take a chance on Merriman even though it's a risky move.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

As much as I think Bush would be a fantastic asset for the Pats, it would be wise for him not to sign with New England. They ignore their RB's too much.

If the price is right and he wants to come to New England, the Pats should take a chance on Merriman even though it's a risky move.

I love the idea of Merriman on the Patriots. I think he's good as gone from SD after this year. They have Phillips locked in on one side, Giles Tucker as a back up, and Larry English their 1st round pick on the other side. They also have quite a few big contracts to hand out this year with Marcus McNeil, Darren Sproles, and Stephen Jackson.... I can easily see Merriman hitting FA.


Merriman's only 25. If healthy, should have a long career ahead of him but at the same time he's already a veteran since he was drafted so young. Young but experienced. Exactly what our Defense needs from a Free Agent. He'd bring a spark to our defense that is obviously missing this year. Could we cut Adalius Thomas and use that money on Merriman?

 

[bigcountry75]

Seeing as Adalius is signed through 2010 I believe if we could get merriman I would like to keep AD and see what he can do with another pass rusher on the other side.....We would have TBC to rotate in as well and as insurance for injuries but I also think that since merriman sucks in coverage that he would be the edge rusher and we could use AD in coverage where I don't think he is so bad......Either way I believe someone on the opposite side from Ad would help elevate his play....

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Could we cut Adalius Thomas and use that money on Merriman?

The better question is: if Merriman is a restricted free agent, will the Chargers cut him loose anyways?

 

[mayoclinic]

The better question is: if Merriman is a restricted free agent, will the Chargers cut him loose anyways?

That's a very good question. A corollary to your question is: if Merriman is an RFA and the Chargers tender him, at what level would they tender him?

The Chargers have a lot of expensive re-signings, and AJ Smith got pretty fed up with Merriman earlier this season. If they tender him and he signs the offer sheet, they're on the hook for him. On the other hand, you would think they would want to get something for him, and tender him to some kind of offer sheet as an RFA. So maybe the compromise and tender him at a lower level, betting that he won't sign the tender and someone will choose to make him an offer.

How much would we be willing to give up? Merriman as a UFA is a gamble. Merriman as an RFA? I doubt it.

 

[furley]

I still like my idea from several weeks ago for addressing the running back position. That is, offer Maroney to Oakland in exchange for Michael Bush. Both running backs have one year remaining. Maroney (24) is younger but Bush (25) makes a tad lesser in salary. If Oakland believes that McFadden (22) is their future at the position, then they could afford to part with Bush knowing that they'll have another young running back in Maroney to complement him.


Patriots current RBs

Maroney - 1 year remaining
Morris - 1 year remaining
Faulk - FA
Taylor - 1 year remaining
Green-Ellis - 1 year remaining

Of these players, I would resign Faulk, trade Maroney and waive everyone else. Retool.

I believe Bush can bring back that physical (power running) style the Patriots had with Dillon. However, this isn't to imply I see him necessarily as New England's featured running back or longterm answer beyond next season. Because I don't know how well he's as a blocker. Still, he's a good enough player to have as a part of a young depth at the position. And he'll be motivated to earn a new contract. Ideally, New England could draft at least two running backs next year.


M. Bush

2010 salary: $550,000

L. Maroney

2010 salary: $825,000


I would consider Reggie Bush if his health weren't always a concern. For that reason, I prefer to resign Faulk who's the team's third down receiver already. Bush is no more than a receiving running back who isn't worth a high salary.

 

[mayoclinic]

I still like my idea from several weeks ago for addressing the running back position. That is, offer Maroney to Oakland in exchange for Michael Bush. Both running backs have one year remaining. Maroney (24) is younger but Bush (25) makes a tad lesser in salary. If Oakland believes that McFadden (22) is their future at the position, then they could afford to part with Bush knowing that they'll have another young running back in Maroney to complement him.

I'm not sure why either team would do this. Maroney doesn't complement McFadden nearly as well as Bush does. And Maroney is running very well for the Pats right now, and would probably do even better if he had some holes to run through and possibly even a lead blocker. Maroney also has more big play capability and is better in the passing game. I don't think Bush has shown enough to warrant that kind of trade.

 

[furley]

Who's really to say whether or not Oakland would or wouldn't do that trade. Oakland has been a willing trade partner with New England more than once in recent years. And Fargas could complement McFadden similarly as Bush.

Maroney played well for the team during the playoffs two seasons ago. He's a tease. No, he's a young, finesse player who's injury prone. The running back position on the New England Patriots must be retooled in my opinion. And that doesn't include Maroney in the foreseeable future. If not Michael Bush, then someone else. A draft pick in 2010, a veteran free agent or trade acquisition.

Maronery isn't the answer longterm at the position. I just don't see it... I'm tired of giving him the benefit of the doubt. Belichick needs to move on from him after this season.

 

[BelichickFan]

If I'm not mistaken, cutting Thomas would cost us $8.8M - $4.9M for a total of about -$4M.

His bonus is a little tricky so someone may correct me but Miguel seems to suggest his bonus counts for $4.4M per year and after this year he has two years left. That's $8.8M and we'd recoup the $4.9M salary.