Patriots Pregame Thread AFC Championship: We are on to Kansas City!

[mcmurtry86]

In the Chiefs four losses they scored 40, 51, 31 and 29. Nobody has really figured out how to defend these guys.

Their lowest scoring game of the year was 26, and that was them playing the Cardinals who currently have earned the first pick of the 2019 draft.

Game strategy might be the same as last time: score a lot and have the ball last.

Really hoping, though, that BB comes up with some voo doo defense and ends up holding them to three like he did in the 2004-2005 playoffs to Peyton's league leading offense.

Doesn’t have the elite front 7 to conjur up a surprisingly great defensive performance

If the Pats hold KC under 30 it will be due to field position, long Pats offensive drives, KC turnovers or unforced KC nistakes (dropper passes on 3rd down, killer penalties etc)

The Pats offense needs to move the ball consistently. In cold weather, kicks and punts will travel less distance so a quick 3 and out will give the Chiefs tremendous field position.

The D could play their best game of the year but if the offense isn’t driving, it will be SB46 all over again.

And, it goes without saying really, the fewer possessions the Chiefs have, the more Brady’s edge in experience will shine through and the more of an advantage the Pats have. Shorten the game by running the ball, chewing clock and forcing KC to do the same.

 

[Wordsmyth]

The Pats are so "inferior" that they won the earlier contest. smh

 

[The Brandon Five]

In the Chiefs four losses they scored 40, 51, 31 and 29. Nobody has really figured out how to defend these guys.

Their lowest scoring game of the year was 26, and that was them playing the Cardinals who currently have earned the first pick of the 2019 draft.

Game strategy might be the same as last time: score a lot and have the ball last.

Really hoping, though, that BB comes up with some voo doo defense and ends up holding them to three like he did in the 2004-2005 playoffs to Peyton's league leading offense.

Why the best offenses almost never win the Super Bowl

Byrne: High-powered offense often not enough for Super Bowl glory – Boston Herald

Of the 20 highest scoring offenses in the Super Bowl era, just three hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, and all were armed with a stellar defense.

The 1994 49ers ranked sixth in scoring defense. The 1999 “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams finished No. 4 in scoring defense. The 2009 Saints ranked third in defensive passer rating (and it was a pick-six that sealed their Super Bowl win over the Colts).

The list of offensive failures among the other 17 is long, profound and stunning. In most cases, they’re teams that simply imploded in the playoffs after fattening themselves on second-rate competition in the regular season.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Tenacious D: Does Defense Really Win Championships?

1 defenses have won 9 Super Bowls and #1 offenses only 6, but the gap doesn’t get much bigger than that. Cumulatively, the Top 10 defenses have won 40 times or 78% of Super Bowls, while top 10 offenses have accumulated 38 wins for 75% of the total.

Wait, isn’t that 153%?

Yep, sometimes the winner has both a top 10 defense and offense. That has occurred 30 times, which is about 60% of all winners. If you remove those years, that leaves only 10 instances where a top 10 defense won without also having a top 10 offense.

The point is that having a top defense is a good thing and having a top offense is a good thing, but most winners have both.

 

[Mack Herron]

Wise could still be limited, of course. Clayborn stepped up big Sunday though so if Wise can go I think Rivers might sit. This team seems to be putting it together at the right time.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Chiefs D has not given up 30 points in 32 home games. Gonna be tough to hold that team under 30 and to score over 30.

 

[tasmlab]

I was one of the very few board members to pick the Broncos in 2015/16 AFCCG. I’m picking the Patriots this time around. This team is really healthy and peaking at the right time; their offense is in some ways harder to stop because they aren’t reliant on superstars. That and the 2015/16 Broncos, I knew, were capable of beating us if Goober played a halfway decent game; Mahomes NEEDS to play at MVP level for them to win this game, and most games for that matter. In the playoffs that’s a really tough bar. The Patriots have been there a few times themselves.

I agree that this year's offense should be better, but they were kind of short on super stars in 2015 on offense, besides Gronk and Jules. They had the ghost of Steven Jackson as their running back. Final roster:

Running backs

• 38 Brandon Bolden
• 39 Steven Jackson
• 28 James White

Wide receivers

• 80 Danny Amendola PR
• 11 Julian Edelman
• 14 Chris Harper
• 19 Brandon LaFell
• 82 Keshawn Martin KR
• 18 Matthew Slater

Tight ends

• 88 Scott Chandler
• 87 Rob Gronkowski
• 85 Michael Williams

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I agree that this year's offense should be better, but they were kind of short on super stars in 2015 on offense, besides Gronk and Jules. They had the ghost of Steven Jackson as their running back. Final roster:

Running backs

• 38 Brandon Bolden
• 39 Steven Jackson
• 28 James White

Wide receivers

• 80 Danny Amendola PR
• 11 Julian Edelman
• 14 Chris Harper
• 19 Brandon LaFell
• 82 Keshawn Martin KR
• 18 Matthew Slater

Tight ends

• 88 Scott Chandler
• 87 Rob Gronkowski
• 85 Michael Williams

Edelman and Amendola were injured, and LaFell was essentiall a dead man walking. As you pointed out, no running backs. I knew Edelman, already hobbled, would get owned by Chris Harris, who was probably his toughest matchup in the league even if healthy. So it was Ultra Rob Gronkowski and Brady vs that defense. The three road losses the Patriots had in the playoffs (2006, 2013, 2015) were also arguably their worst offensive units. Lots of injuries and depth issues. This isn’t one of their best offenses but is a lot better than last ones that have lost on the road in the AFCCG. Brady is not playing with an enormous handicap with a team that has no business being there at all.

 

[Belichick8384]

Why the best offenses almost never win the Super Bowl

Byrne: High-powered offense often not enough for Super Bowl glory – Boston Herald

Its amazing we even need articles like that. Anyone who's paid any amount of attention to football over the years should know "defense wins championships." Though, admittedly, this may no longer be the case these days with the stifling rule changes against defensive peformance...

 

[JayNM]

From the article: "New England might have looked dominant against the Chargers, but a season's worth of data tells us the Patriots are inferior to the Chiefs."

Yea, maybe, but the head-to-head should be an useful data point.

No. It shouldn't. You need to treat all game as independent variable. Their previous game has no correlation to this one (except psychological, which is nigh impossible to measure

 

[Uptown]

 

[Uptown]

Eric Berry will likely play Sunday. He practiced today.



Eric Berry practicing on Wednesday

 

[VectorPrime]

Nothing about this game feels good.

 

[JayNM]

Super Bowl LIII chances: Why Patriots are long shots woww

It's 0 surprising that the team with the lowest record has the longest shots to win it.

Data don't have Proxy's for clutch-ness and Goat-Ness

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Eric Berry will likely play Sunday. He practiced today.

He's only played in two games this year, splitting snaps in both.

Eric Berry might play this week but ERIC BERRY isn't playing.

 

[Uptown]

 

[VectorPrime]

The Chiefs ripped up their entire field and are resodding the entire thing.

Yeah that bodes well.

 

[Uptown]

Lol and there you have it! At least he’s honest. He already said TB is the GOAT 3 years ago.

Shannon Sharpe admits he rips Tom Brady because he's sick of seeing Patriots win

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

3 elite pass rushers at home. It's not gonna be easy.

Agree...but it's not supposed to be easy. This is for a trip to the SB. All teams are somewhat good at this point.

Ray Lewis is one of my least favorite narcissists.

However the Patriot's mentality needs to be....'Lock the door on this joint, KC ain't getting out'

Physical....Smart....Detailed..........but above all Physical.

 

[ViperGTS]

The Chiefs ripped up their entire field and are resodding the entire thing.

Yeah that bodes well.

How the league hasn’t outlawed natural grass is beyond me.