#1 WR? Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo anyone?

[Love The Drake]

Best Season Of Career:
Juju - 111 catches, 1426 yards, 7 TD's
Aiyuk - 75 catches, 1342 yards, 7 TD's

Good player, but not some transcendent talent like Moss, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones...

He's more like young Juju, a simply "good" talent in a great situation.

You don't trade high draft capital for that, you don't overpay for that, doing both would be hurting your team. You can't overpay for "great," you can only overpay for "good."

It looks like this is a non-story anyway and we can stop talking about it, his own words he plans on playing out his contract on the 49ers this season and next year will either have a new deal or be a free agent.

Next season the Patriots should go after Chris Godwin, he's better...

All due respect no WRs over 28.

 

[PatsFan2]

All due respect no WRs over 28.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Best Season Of Career:
Juju - 111 catches, 1426 yards, 7 TD's
Aiyuk - 75 catches, 1342 yards, 7 TD's

Good player, but not some transcendent talent like Moss, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones...

He's more like young Juju, a simply "good" talent in a great situation.

You don't trade high draft capital for that, you don't overpay for that, doing both would be hurting your team. You can't overpay for "great," you can only overpay for "good."

It looks like this is a non-story anyway and we can stop talking about it, his own words he plans on playing out his contract on the 49ers this season and next year will either have a new deal or be a free agent.

Next season the Patriots should go after Chris Godwin, he's better...

JuJu needed 166 targets to get 1426. You expect those #'s if not more for that many targets.

Also no one is comparing Aiyuk to HOF WRS or saying we need to give up a ton of capital for him. A 2nd & a sweetener would be sufficient.

And I love Godwin but I'm not sure that's the wisest move. He'll be shy of 30 and looking to cash in. Not extremely productive. If he's cheap I'm all for it but chances are he'll be looking to cash in on his last big pay day.

With respect some of your post dont make a whole lot of sense. Its like you're posting things no one is saying or its not that rerelevant.

 

[Wozzy]

All due respect no WRs over 28.

Juju was merely "good" when he was 22 year's old and posting 1400 yards... not great. he wasn't worth trading a first round pick then paying him a top of the market deal. If someone had made that move after his 1400 yard season they would be severely letdown.

His QB, his O-Line, the weapons around him and the team's defense were all substantially better so he looked better. He couldn't recreate that production the next few years, and only time he came close was with Mahomes in 2022.

The lesson here... don't confuse a merely good WR for a great one just because he's in a great situation.

 

[Wozzy]

JuJu needed 166 targets to get 1426. You expect those #'s if not more for that many targets.

Also no one is comparing Aiyuk to HOF WRS or saying we need to give up a ton of capital for him. A 2nd & a sweetener would be sufficient.

And I love Godwin but I'm not sure that's the wisest move. He'll be shy of 30 and looking to cash in. Not extremely productive. If he's cheap I'm all for it but chances are he'll be looking to cash in on his last big pay day.

With respect some of your post dont make a whole lot of sense. Its like you're posting things no one is saying or its not that rerelevant.

And the Steelers offense was more conservative and less explosive than Shanahans.

Godwin just turned 28 years old...

Trading a 2nd and paying Aiyuk like he was Justin Jefferson or Amon Ra St Brown would be folly.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

And the Steelers offense was more conservative and less explosive than Shanahans.

This is false. The 49ers ran it 500 X's last year. 2018 Steelers passed almost 700 X's compared to 491, last year for the 49ers. That year Pitt also ranked top 8 for explosive plays.

Godwin just turned 28 years old...

Sure and he'll be 29 when he signs a new deal. Just shy of 30 looking to cash in ... like I said.

Trading a 2nd and paying Aiyuk like he was Justin Jefferson or Amon Ra St Brown would be folly.

Aiyuk is better than ASTB. And putting ASTB along JJ in that sense is wild. You've been wrong a lot.

 

[mgteich]

Let's move on from a WR until next off-season.

 

[Wozzy]

This is false. The 49ers ran it 500 X's last year. 2018 Steelers passed almost 700 X's compared to 491, last year for the 49ers. That year Pitt also ranked top 8 for explosive plays.

Sure and he'll be 29 when he signs a new deal. Just shy of 30 looking to cash in ... like I said.

Aiyuk is better than ASTB. And putting ASTB along JJ in that sense is wild. You've been wrong a lot.

You're right Amon Ra is similar to Aiyuk, considering the Lions found him in the 4th round it's just as likely Javon Baker or Polk turns out as good as either of those guys... and the Pats didn't have to trade a high draft pick, then pay him a top of the market deal. Baker's entire four year rookie deal is only 786K guaranteed. Proving yet again how silly this idea would be.

 

[Huckleberry1]

To the bolded. Teams aren't playing Aiyuk any lesser or giving him "favorable" coverage bc of those guys. Kyle is definitely one of the better designers in the game though. All those guys are "schemed" open to a point but Aiyuk is actually someone they use as a "man/coverage beater." Deebo gets fed manipulated touches and is a big asset behind the los but McCaffrey has almost made that part of his game redundant believe it or not. And thats really where Kyle's strengths play through. A)Confusion behind the los.
B)making you think youre seeing 100 different plays but its only a 1/3 of that. Its just that he has position-less/interchangeable guys in Caff, Kittle, Juice, Deebo, Aiyuk ...
C)making you defend every blade of grass with an elite skill group/elite 5.


Recently he's taken some PA out of his plays and replaced it with what's "looks" like a run play - motion / going out wide or vice-versa with Juice. Thats who really dictates a coverage bc you have to respect the run when he's in there. Him and McVay have broken away from the traditional "Shanahan type offense" in a few regards but kept some staples. One being less PA, more straight dropbacks with Stafford and Purdy. Again with what "looks" like a run play.


Aiyuks the one guy on that roster you can line up out wide and just ask him to win against man/cb1 coverage and he's been seeing that type of attention from teams. He definitely gets helped by Shanahan but has become a solid WR1B after the big boys (Adams, Jefferson, Hill, Lamb etc)

Last point. It's ok to have help. No one has had more scheme + good coaching help over the last 5-6 years than Ty Hill. He's landed in perfect offenses for him. Ran by two perfect QB for said systems (No Tua isnt elite but hes nasty in that system) and two coaches that have been copied for years/decades.



I want to be clear. I'm not advocating trading our 25 1st RD pick. Thats not just a "pick." We just went through this with Maye. There's very few prospects worth that pick. So I'm holding onto that pick unless the Browns want to give up Myles or something like that.

I'm simply saying Aiyuk is very much in that WR1B tier after guys like Hill, Jefferson, Adams etc He's put himself among the top tier of wrs in that group.

"He caught 14 of 20 passes thrown both outside the numbers and 15-plus air yards last season, the best rate (70%) of any player in the last four seasons (min. 20 targets)" - cbs

"No qualifying receiver (at least 50 catches total over the last two seasons) has a higher Success Rate (receptions of at least 40% of yards required on first down, at least 60% of yards required on second down, and 100% of required yards on third or fourth down, divided by targets) than Aiyuk, and only Rashid Shaheed of the New Orleans Saints (11.1) has a higher Yards per Target average over the last two seasons than Aiyuk’s 10.8. And Aiyuk’s catch rate of 69.9% is unusually high for a guy with so many deep targets" - Doug Farrar

Y/R 17.9 (2nd)

1342 (7th) - - - (Out of the top 10 in rec yards he had at least 27 less than the next wr)

1st down % (1st)

YPR (2nd or 3rd I know its Hill, Nico? than Aiyuk or Aiyuk is 2nd) - - - (PFF - In the past 10 years, only six receivers have hit 3.0 yards per route run over a season, Aiyuk being one of them)

NFL Receiver Tracking Metrics - ESPN Analytics

Models and data visualization from ESPN Analytics. NBA & NFL Draft, schedule analysis, receiver tracking metrics and more.

espnanalytics.com

***side note***
It's well known Aiyuk was dealing with a core injury when he ran the 40. It's not really a big negative in context. Also BA has an incredible wingspan at 80". Hardly just a guy that runs a "4.5"

---ASTB--- Give Aiyuk more targets and you have a more explosive player and probably still more efficient. Plus Aiyuk is more of an outside threat. He's very as good or better than ASTB.

ASTB had 164 targets this past year for 1515 10 TD 12.7 Y/R
72.6%

22 - 146 targets - 1161 - 6 TD - 10.0 Y/R
72.6%

BA
23 - 105 targets - 1342 - 7 TD - 17.9 Y/R
71.4% catch rate

22 - 114 targets - 1015 - 8 TD - 13.0 Y/R - 68.4 catch rate

Again I never suggested parting with our 25 1st. It's just pretty clear Aiyuk has joined the 1B cast of players.

BGC. I realize that Aiyuk had a great season past year, but overall he has had one good season, and one great season, and I don’t think that puts him in the same class as guys like Jefferson and Lamb. I think he’s a good player, but the process is too high imo. They should go with what they have this season, unless a really good deal becomes available to them, then see where they are at when the season ends, and fill their top needs in the next draft and free agency. I don’t believe teams will see the kind of cap raise they saw last year, so it will be much harder to re-sign their owners agents, and that will make for better options in the next free agency than last year. I also expect a high pick in the next draft, and they can get a great prospect at LT, WR, or another position of need then.

I do appreciate all of the information you put into your posts, as well as your draft efforts.