This isn't a court of law. It is a message board. We speculate. If we wanted proof or close, the best we could do is to say that almost every rooster spot is up for grabs.
ALTERNATIVE ONE
Vrabel is OK with his starters.
ALTERNATIVE TWO
Vrabel wants better starters and thinks, as many here, that at least one of them is really very good.
Under this scenario, Vrabel and staff were not able to secure anyone who could even compete wit Spillane and Ellis.
It has nothing to do with being in a court of law. It has to do with basic logical thought and the fact that your "alternatives" are just assumptions that ignore things like player value and the league timeline.
One key factor you ignored is that the RFA Tender had to be made PRIOR to Free Agency. Vrabel CHOSE to not put the RFA tender on Gibbens. Clearly, Vrabel felt that Gibbens didn't provide the necessary value necessary to retain him.
We have no idea if the Pats attempted to sign guys like Devin Bush, Quay Walker, Nakobe Dean or Leo Chanal. We have no idea if the Pats reached out to LBs and felt they were over-priced or if the Pats attempted to negotiate and couldn't come to an agreement.
We have no idea where the Pats had Rodriguez, Golday, CJ Allen, or Anthony Hill rated. With the exception of Hill the other 3 came off the board rather quickly in the 2nd round and the Pats traded up to get Jacas when it looked like things were going to shift back to more Edge Rushers coming off the board. The only thing I can say is that the Pats had Jacas rated higher than Anthony Hill.
With the trade of both 4th rounders, it became obvious that the Pats weren't going to get an impact LB despite it being a need. So, instead of reaching, they stuck to their board. And yes, I raised the question of taking Raridon over LBs such as Elarms-Orr or Kyle Louis, a CB like Julian Neal or Keionte Scott, or an OG like Jalen Farmer or Jeremiah Wright.
To date, Vrabel has shown that he intends to rebuild via the draft. With that in mind, the Pats went into the draft with a very strong likelihood of 1 compensatory pick for 2027 with the possibility of a second one. If the Pats had made an additional signing prior to May 1st, there was a very strong likelihood that the signing would have counted in the compensatory formula. That would have eliminated the chance for the Pats to have a compensatory pick in 2027.
As others have mentioned, the Pats could have been waiting until June 1st, when there is a chance of other veterans being cut that could be improvements over Elliss, Britt, Reese, Gainer, etc, etc.