DRAFT DRAFT - Top 3 Rounds

Zuma said:

I keep coming back to this post with your shot of the stats and every time I'm like....Ok this time I am going to understand that...and nope....didn't happen

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It's not that complicated.

It's basically saying that the first-round picks most likely to be part of your team long-term are OL. Defensive front 7 and QBs are in the middle, and offensive skill/defensive secondary positions are lowest. All the numbers are there just to show how often teams have picked those positions.

I had some difficulty picking between the first two options but in the end I went with OT, DL,TE. At #31, there will most likely be multiple options rated at that spot. Ultimately, if there’s still a starting quality OT there you have to take him.

I could also a WR being taken in the top 3 rounds.

I voted but want them to stay true to their draft board. That’s why you spend so much time and money to form a board.
If players of different positions are closely rated then you draft for position of need. Otherwise you take BPA

ctpatsfan77 said:

It's not that complicated.

It's basically saying that the first-round picks most likely to be part of your team long-term are OL. Defensive front 7 and QBs are in the middle, and offensive skill/defensive secondary positions are lowest. All the numbers are there just to show how often teams have picked those positions.

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I got it now....ty. It really wasn't that difficult Interesting how Center is the most likely by a wide margin.

BUSTAMOVE said:

I voted but want them to stay true to their draft board. That’s why you spend so much time and money to form a board.
If players of different positions are closely rated then you draft for position of need. Otherwise you take BPA

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I'm pretty sure that the way most teams do it is by tiers. If you go back to the Gonzalez pick I'm pretty sure you would find that he was the only player remaining from their top tier of players. So they would be looking at a board with Gonzalez in the top tier, and the rest of the players under consideration on the tier below him. Belichick stuck to the board and got an All Pro CB.

Every year we hear the same thing that fill in the blank is a weak class. And yet, we later wonder how that other team find a player at that said position.

The OL is the number 1 priority. They absolutely had a chance to win the Super Bowl had the OL been competent. Campbell is suddenly a massive question mark of whether he is a long term answer at LT. He was shaky prior to his injury where he was regularly getting pushed back into Maye. It's was painful to watch every playoff game with him returning from injury (still clearly injured).

Edge and WR or TE are the next top needs.

Huckleberry1 said:

I'm pretty sure that the way most teams do it is by tiers. If you go back to the Gonzalez pick I'm pretty sure you would find that he was the only player remaining from their top tier of players. So they would be looking at a board with Gonzalez in the top tier, and the rest of the players under consideration on the tier below him. Belichick stuck to the board and got an All Pro CB.

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Belichick got lucky with gonzo. He traded down and if not for ron rivera misstep we might have been stuck with a watered pick in form of Washington cornerback.

I would not give credit to belichick for gonzo. If he knew how good gonzo was he would have picked him up at 14 instead of trading down.

jdlboot14 said:

Discuss priority of the first 3 rounds, considering positions of depth in the draft and need of the Patriots roster.

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You know what I chose one can't be too sure WR - WR and more WR's.

patfanken said:

Here's the thing. When you are drafting in the 30's it is unlikely that you are going to get a starter in the first 3 rounds. At that point you are just hoping to get a rotational player who will improve over the next 2 year and BECOME a starter eventually. Of course every now and then you get a one that immediately becomes a major contributor, like Woodson, who not only started from day one, but ended up playing the MOST defensive snaps of anyone on the team. Not bad for the 4th round, and certainly not expected

I desperately want an Edge or LB with that first pick. But I won't complain if we grab an OT or WR. If we are drafting at 31, we are getting something like the 7th or 8th OLman or the 5th or 6th WR . The point being is that NO ONE we pick in this year's draft is going to be an instant major contributor. This is a depth draft. A developmental draft that will produce 3 or 4 starters in their 2nd and 3rd years and 2 or 3 guys who become quality depth. Last year's bonanza was an anomaly that sometimes happens, especially to teams that sucked the previous year. But it is the exception not the rule. We have 11 picks, so far, and if 6 are still on the team 2-3 years from now, I'd call it a good draft.

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You don't know that! Campbell - Henderson - Wilson - Woodson and our Kicker last year all say hi.

Toofy said:

Belichick got lucky with gonzo. He traded down and if not for ron rivera misstep we might have been stuck with a watered pick in form of Washington cornerback.

I would not give credit to belichick for gonzo. If he knew how good gonzo was he would have picked him up at 14 instead of trading down.

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I agree that some luck was involved, but I still give credit to whomever is making the choice. If they are going to get **** for the mistakes they should get credit for the hits.

I think this type of survey is a reason why Bill had miserable drafts. You locked in positions at pick ranges and have to take them rather than being a master of the ebb and flow of the draft. For example, the tackle depth after the first 7 tackles, who could all be picked before 31 is a cliff. It doesn't mean there won't be good tackles after that, but there is a significant drop off. So you don't just pick a tackle because you have to have one. This is exactly what happened with Cole Strange. We needed a guard and he was a massive reach.

The EDGE is really deep, but after round 1 they are all non-starters and have some type of flaw that needs time to build. Many have a great pass rush, but are poor in run support. The idea is to get a guy with potential and balance in both with size. Even the rushers in our range of round 1 have flaws. TJ Parker's play was in free fall. Howell is short with short arms that could lead to hand fighting issues. Young is the prototypical size with a low sack count. Thomas is light in the trunk. All have great potential, but its still a crap shoot. But late round 2-4 is stacked with guys of close to equal value.

It remains to be seen where TE will fall. Stowers is and athletic freak who blocks like a QB - horrible. Klare is a smidge better at blocking, but you don't take him if Stowers is around one of your pics. You use the 4ths to go get the one you want. If they are both gone, then just throw a dark and pick whose left with favorability to Delp and Roush. Both look really fun in their own ways. I do love Roush's blocking at 6'6" and 267. Henry, Roush, Hill has major RPO action written all over it.

The WR receiver class is really tricky and we have clearly shown we don't have the ability to read it yet. First, even if a handshake deal for AJ Brown is in place for June 2, you do not consider it a need filled for this draft. If a top weapon falls close to 31, you go get him if he is a system fit and you really like him. The options are Boston, Cooper Jr, and Concepcion. Boston scares me as N'Keal 2.0.

imahobgoblin said:

I think this type of survey is a reason why .... had miserable drafts. .

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I agree that choosing the first 3 positions, in order, before the draft is a losing proposition.

Occasionally, it is right to pick the position of the first pick, but after that it is a mistake.

mgteich said:

There are exactly zero RT's who will be available after R1 who are likely to solidify the line for their rookie contract.

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All depends on how the draft shakes out - though there's more dropoff between round 1 and 2 this year than other years.

Still, most seem to think we did ok with an OL taken in the 3rd round last year as he was our starting LG last year and starting C this year.

I hope I'm wrong but I could see a spree on OL as its good draft value any year but more so in round 1 this year. But I'm getting a feeling we won't see Iheanachor or Lomu (my two preferred) slide that far back.

Obviously it all depends on who Wolf/Vrabel want, but if the OL they love isn't there, I can see them trading back into the early 2nd as #31 could be in demand for teams that might be targeting Ty Simpson early in the 2nd, especially if there's one or more of the Edge rushers they still want in the 2nd.

While I could actually see them trading up in the 1st round to perhaps get the OL they prefer I think we hope their preferred OL selection is there for us at #31 or we trade back and pick up some OL depth in the 3rd like they did with Wilson. A high 2nd round pick by trading back may still get them an edge rusher with a 1st round projection. Meanwhile I think TE is deep enough to wait until the 4th round.

So for me, OL, Edge, and Best Player Available in rounds 1-3, but I have a feeling they'll be turning to plan B if there's a run on OL

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mgteich said:

There are exactly zero RT's who will be available after R1 who are likely to solidify the line for their rookie contract.

Click to expand...

All depends on how the draft shakes out - though there's more dropoff between round 1 and 2 this year than other years.

Still, most seem to think we did ok with an OL taken in the 3rd round last year as he was our starting LG last year and starting C this year.

I hope I'm wrong but I could see a spree on OL as its good draft value any year but more so in round 1 this year. But I'm getting a feeling we won't see Iheanachor or Lomu (my two preferred) slide that far back.

Obviously it all depends on who Wolf/Vrabel want, but if the OL they love isn't there, I can see them trading back into the early 2nd as #31 could be in demand for teams that might be targeting Ty Simpson early in the 2nd, especially if there's one or more of the Edge rushers they still want in the 2nd.

While I could actually see them trading up in the 1st round to perhaps get the OL they prefer I think we hope their preferred OL selection is there for us at #31 or we trade back and pick up some OL depth in the 3rd like they did with Wilson. A high 2nd round pick by trading back may still get them an edge rusher with a 1st round projection. Meanwhile I think TE is deep enough to wait until the 4th round.

So for me, OL, Edge, and Best Player Available in rounds 1-3, but I have a feeling they'll be turning to plan B if there's a run on OL

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JoeSixPat said:

All depends on how the draft shakes out - though there's more dropoff between round 1 and 2 this year than other years.

Still, most seem to think we did ok with an OL taken in the 3rd round last year as he was our starting LG last year and starting C this year.

I hope I'm wrong but I could see a spree on OL as its good draft value any year but more so in round 1 this year. But I'm getting a feeling we won't see Iheanachor or Lomu (my two preferred) slide that far back.

Obviously it all depends on who Wolf/Vrabel want, but if the OL they love isn't there, I can see them trading back into the early 2nd as #31 could be in demand for teams that might be targeting Ty Simpson early in the 2nd, especially if there's one or more of the Edge rushers they still want in the 2nd.

While I could actually see them trading up in the 1st round to perhaps get the OL they prefer I think we hope their preferred OL selection is there for us at #31 or we trade back and pick up some OL depth in the 3rd like they did with Wilson. A high 2nd round pick by trading back may still get them an edge rusher with a 1st round projection. Meanwhile I think TE is deep enough to wait until the 4th round.

So for me, OL, Edge, and Best Player Available in rounds 1-3, but I have a feeling they'll be turning to plan B if there's a run on OL

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You can say that again.

Lol.

I'm totally OK with a small trade down to 2nd round as long as there is good compensation.

The 5th year option is a nice bonus but picking at #31 in a draft like this I think having 2 shots at players that are not 1st round material but have nice potential does better for this team than having the 5th year option on an almost 2nd rounder.

By the way I don't know what teams are seeing on Ty Simpson. He's Mac Jones all over again, not rookie year Mac Jones but the 3rd year version.

Not to be a need guy, bc if there's huge value, this should be disregarded. BUT...
The first question throughout this draft should be "how can we help the O-line? Is it worth it at this pick?" In the absence of a clear value alternative, double up and triple up at these positions. And be aware, our first pick is no. 31. Be ready to wait for impact beyond the JAG level. You hope for the rare upside outlier, but please no proclamations of busthood when a guy isnt a first-year all pro.

And oh yeah edge would be nice too. But I personally want a lot of tickets in the big uglies raffles.

As of today, I expect the BPA on Vrabel's board to be McDonald, a player that would a fine anchor for the DL for at least 5 years.

Zachariah Branch may drop a round or 2 because of this incident.


I have to say, whenever I see charges like "Obstructing the sidewalk" and "Failure to Obey commands" I immediately imagine that someone was hanging out, told to go home, and refused because, well, THIS IS AMERICA and we have a right to hang out on public streets (unless there's a curfew).