mgcolby’s Picker Thread MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2025

*Don't Shoot the Messenger

Model Analysis
Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots
The Seahawks (17-3) meet the Patriots (17-4) in a Super Bowl matchup between the two hottest defenses in football. Seattle has allowed just 11.5 points per game over their last four, ranking 2nd in the league - but New England has been even stingier at 9.0 points allowed, good for 1st. The Patriots also rank 1st in defensive YPP (3.3), 1st in rush defense (3.0 YPC allowed), and 3rd in pass defense (3.5 YPA allowed). Seattle counters with the 5th-ranked scoring offense (28 PPG) and elite ball security - just 0.5 turnovers per game.

The matchup to watch: Seattle's 15th-ranked offense (5.3 YPP) against New England's top-ranked defense. The Patriots held opponents to single digits in three of their last four games, including a 10-7 AFC Championship grind against Denver. Seattle's offense is more explosive - they've scored 28+ in three of their last four - but they haven't faced a defense this dominant. On the flip side, New England's 13th-ranked scoring offense (23 PPG) meets Seattle's 2nd-ranked scoring defense (11.5 PPG). Something has to give.

The model projects Seattle winning 27-21, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Seattle's combination of offensive firepower and defensive stinginess gives them the edge, but this has all the makings of a low-scoring, tight game. The over/under sits at 45.5 - the model leans over at 48.1 total points. Pick: SEA -4.5, Over 45.5



My personal Picks
I disagree with the picker here and think the almost the exact opposite score. I think NE gives up a late TD to make it 27-20.

Sea: 20
NE: 27

Pats +4.5 & ML
Over 45.5

I’m getting close to finally launching this. A few of you have known bits and pieces along the way, but I really tried to keep things quiet while I built it out. What I’m about to release represents almost a year’s worth of effort - not sure I’d call it “work” exactly, but definitely a lot of hours, trial, error, and learning.

I had hoped to launch during the NFL season, and obviously I missed that window. But I really didn’t want to put something out there that I wouldn’t use myself as a bettor. So I kept building until it had the features I personally rely on. Over the past few months, those features have actually helped me quite a bit, which gives me some confidence that a few of you - yes, even the many quiet lurkers - might find value in it too. This thread has pulled around 4k views since Week 5, which has been pretty consistent for years, so I figure at least a handful of you may be interested in what I’ve created.

I’ll be announcing a signup discount soon, and maybe even offering free access for a limited time to a limited number of people here.

I’m not ready to share the URL just yet—that’ll likely come early this upcoming week - but here’s a quick breakdown:

Well, a little later than I planned - but it's here.

After a year of building, breaking, rebuilding, and chasing every new idea that popped into my head at 2am, it's alive.

I started this wanting to build something genuinely useful for bettors - not just another picks site. What it's become is something I'm really proud of. Here's where it stands today:

Picks & Analysis

• NFL, NCAAM, NBA - full game picks every day, every game
• Player props with a tiered edge system: Gold, Silver, Bronze, and Black (no edge) so you know exactly where the model has conviction
• Player projections for every player, every game - built on player averages vs opposing defensive data points
• Every single pick is tracked and graded - full historical record, nothing hidden
• Pattern analysis - model hot streaks, star rating records, trend identification

User Dashboard

This is the one I'm most excited about. Track your own bets - straight bets, props, parlays - with full ROI breakdowns by bet type, sport, and parlay leg win/loss records. Filter your history by season, month, whatever you need, and export it all.

What's in the pipeline

• MLB picker is being built right now - Opening Day target
• NASCAR, Golf, and Soccer coming over the next few months
• WNBA and NCAAW next season using the NBA\NCAAM framework
• NCAA Football this fall
• NFL player projections for the 2026 season
• And Shamlock himself is coming - he's been busy building out his pub, The Tipsy Leprechaun, where he'll hold court and talk his ****e

There are free picks available daily if you want to kick the tires and check it out.

---

I want to genuinely thank everyone who has clicked this thread week after week. It meant more than you know during the stretches where I was deep in the weeds and wondering if any of this was worth it. And a huge thank you to Ian for not only tolerating this thread but actively encouraging me to push it forward. That meant a lot.

If you've been around here long enough to have any opinions on what a picks tool should and shouldn't be - I'd love your feedback. I've been buried in this thing so long I've definitely lost perspective on some things as well as had a few kinks in the cog here and there. If you're interested in being a tester for a month or so, DM me.

shamlocksports.com