The more I hear about how the Seahawks are going to crush the Patriots, the more I think the Pats may win. Here is my reasoning (note I have said a lot of this in this and other threads):
- People focus on the Pats' schedule and not the Seahawks. Yes, the Pats had a very easy schedule, but no one is looking at the Seahawks' schedule. The Seahawks have faced mostly below average QBs and back ups. When they faced good QB, those QBs tended to more often than not pick apart the Seahawks defense. Stafford had near career games in two of their three meetings. Baker Mayfield completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and 2 TD (no INTs).
- Seattle's' pass rush comes more from the middle of the d-line than an outside rush. This is helpful to the Patriots since they have done better inside than outside in the playoffs. This will also allow Maye to scramble out of the pocket to make plays which he couldn't do against strong outside pass rushes of the Texans, Chargers, and Broncos.
- On that, Seattle has been weak against scrambling QBs. Before he got hurt, Jayden Daniels got 51 yards on the ground. Cam Ward rushed for 37 yards. Brock Purdy got 27 yards in the playoffs. Jacoby Brissett got 31 yards. CJ Stroud got 25 yards. Bryce Young got 27 yards. Maye should be able to pick up yards on the ground.
- The Pats interior pass rush matches up best with the weakness of the Seahawks' o-line. The Seahawks have a very o-line, but their guard play can be suspect at times.
- The Vikings put out the blueprint on how to shut down Darnold. Blitz the hell out of him. Double team JSN and force Darnold to throw to his other receivers. JSN is the passing offense. Darnold targets him nearly 40% of the time (JSN had 163 targets and Cooper Cupp, who is second, only had 70 targets). JSN has more receiving yards than the next four receivers on the Seahawks' offense combined. In that game, Darnold was 14 for 26 for 128 yards, ) TDs, and 0 INTs (sacked 4 times, 4.9 per attempt, and a 67.5 passer rating)
The Pats could double JSN with Gonzalez and Marcus Jones because they really don't have to worry about the other receivers that much. Darnold not being much of a mobile QB, will also be more susceptible to the Patriots' interior rush. The Pats could force him off his mark and force him to throw off platform.
I think too many people are sleeping on the Patriots. I think it really will all come down to how injured Maye is. If Maye can make the throws, I think the Pats win this game.
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