Payton’s fourth down call

Payton has always been extremely arrogant

it bit him and his team in the ass once again

I didn't watch the AFCC game (I generally don't watch big games for health reasons, too long to explain) but I have to be honest Vrabes made the same stupid decision to go for it on 4th down that Payton did. The only difference is it worked out for us, just barely and we ended up getting the 3 points anyway. If it didn't all of us might be saying the same thing about his call.

Just keepin it a buck.

NovaScotiaPatsFan said:

I didn't watch the AFCC game (I generally don't watch big games for health reasons, too long to explain) but I have to be honest Vrabes made the same stupid decision to go for it on 4th down that Payton did. The only difference is it worked out for us, just barely and we ended up getting the 3 points anyway. If it didn't all of us might be saying the same thing about his call.

Just keepin it a buck.

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The big difference is they knew they had a backup QB who hadn't played in 2 years in at QB and who doesn't run, and we had Maye.

The play Payton called relied on Stidham hitting a pass in the clutch, and one thing we knew about him from his time here is that he does not handle pressure well.

Payton said he noticed that we switched to a 9-man front. In hindsight that's when he should have grabbed the ref and asked for a time out because he knew he had a swing pass on and we'd be in the backfield really quickly.

You do have a good point, though, to highlight that play. Our execution on that play sucked and had the call on the field been reversed we'd be the ones looking stupid.

Also I found it interesting that both kickers had a miss, and the difference in the game was our dude Borregales made his second and Lutz's got tipped. Of course our miss was on a 63 yarder that never really had a chance in that wind. I thought Lutz's first was makeable.

At the time I agreed with the call. Part of the equation was whether or not it was known how bad the weather was going to turn.

I think it's perfectly reasonable for Payton to assume Maye was going to hit a few explosives.

Triumph said:

Im would say that BB took the points way more.

BB went for it in Indy with Faulk because the defense could stop Manning. That one I agreed with.

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Going for that was probably the worst decision that Bill ever made. Here's why;

With only a few seconds over two minutes left the Pats had 3rd and 2. They then threw a pass and failed, used their last timeout and on 4th down went for it. When that failed they left more than two minutes on the clock so they didn't get the automatic replay and had no timeout left to get one. It looked like Faulk made it.

It was terrible situational football by Bill for not getting the clock down and to Tom for calling the last TO

Unless we're talking about trying to convert a 4th and 13 instead of kicking a 50-yard field goal, we judge most of the decisions by their outcomes, not by the soundness of the decision.

Pete Carroll will always be blamed for throwing instead of running, but there were 100+ passes inside the five that season, and zero interceptions. They had three more tries, only one time out left, and if the pass was incomplete, they had two more tries with Lynch.

On the flip side, Belichick not calling a time out was hailed as brilliant, even though by not calling a time out, he bet that the Seahawks won't be able to gain one yard in three tries. Not calling a time out meant that had they scored, there would have been 10 seconds left, if that, so the game would have been over.

Considering that Butler's interception was the first interception that year from that position, Carroll's decision to throw is more sound than Belichick's decision not to call a time out. But the outcome, i.e Browner's and Butler's fantastic play, have shaped the opinion of the respective decisions.

Had the Broncos players converted, and then took a 14-0 lead, Payton would have been deemed a courageous and bold coach, who dared to win. They didn't, so he looks like an idiot who shorthanded his team.

We went on 4th down against the Texans and scored, while the score was 0-0. There was no need, but we did it, and it turned out to be a good decision because we scored a TD on the play. The Chargers did the same thing against us while the score was 0-0, they didn't convert thus Harbaugh was criticized for not taking the three points.

Let's assume they kicked it and it ended up in overtime 10-10. It seemed like in the bad weather, it was going to be whoever could run it better, and we were doing it better with Maye and Stevenson. (Plus our defense was camouflaged.) I think we still would have won even if Payton had taken the points.

Water Boy said:

At the time I agreed with the call. Part of the equation was whether or not it was known how bad the weather was going to turn.

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I did not agree with a pass there with Stidham. Nix? OK.

I read that the Pats switched coverages to where it made the Broncos play selection highly unlikely to succeed. Vrabel showed Payton one defense and then switched after the timeout was over. Stidham did not check out of the play. Regarding the weather, Payton has lived in the Denver area for 3 years. How do you have 5280 on your helmets and not be aware of Denver weather in January?

Water Boy said:

I think it's perfectly reasonable for Payton to assume Maye was going to hit a few explosives.

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How? Maye just had 2 post season games vs top 5 defenses playing in the cold where he was not explosive.

Now, Maye is in Denver vs a top 5 defense and its around 20 degrees at kickoff.

1960Pats said:

Going for that was probably the worst decision that Bill ever made. Here's why;

With only a few seconds over two minutes left the Pats had 3rd and 2. They then threw a pass and failed, used their last timeout and on 4th down went for it. When that failed they left more than two minutes on the clock so they didn't get the automatic replay and had no timeout left to get one. It looked like Faulk made it.

It was terrible situational football by Bill for not getting the clock down and to Tom for calling the last TO

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BB gambled and lost.

That is why BB took the points the majority of the time to the tune of 6 Lombardis.

MrBigglesWorth said:

I have to disagree with that one. Field position was awful and the offense wasn't doing much. Now they we're banking on the broncos not doing much

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i think the timeouts to ensure getting the ball back were fine.....you've got marcus jones back there, the chances he might break out a decent return aren't horrible, and i think at that point they knew their defense had put the clamps down.......they ended up getting lucky with how it worked out, but i think it wasn't a huge gamble, especially considering they knew the 2nd half opportunities were going to be imited

1960Pats said:

Going for that was probably the worst decision that Bill ever made. Here's why;

With only a few seconds over two minutes left the Pats had 3rd and 2. They then threw a pass and failed, used their last timeout and on 4th down went for it. When that failed they left more than two minutes on the clock so they didn't get the automatic replay and had no timeout left to get one. It looked like Faulk made it.

It was terrible situational football by Bill for not getting the clock down and to Tom for calling the last TO

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That game was a week 10 game. It was a debatable decision but it's certainly not worse than going on 4th and 13 instead of kicking a 49-yard field goal in a Super Bowl or benching Butler.

Even in theory, while risky, you bet that gaining two yards to outright win the game is easier than stopping Manning with 4 tries every set of downs. It's not even close to the ridiculousness of going on 4th and 13 in a 7-3 game in the third quarter where every point was big.

Water Boy said:

At the time I agreed with the call. Part of the equation was whether or not it was known how bad the weather was going to turn.

I think it's perfectly reasonable for Payton to assume Maye was going to hit a few explosives.

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100% agree. People think that the game is static, that situations don't change. As it was, the Patriots should have had 10 more points -- but for circumstances. The Broncos should have had 6 more than they scored. If Payton had taken the 3, the game could've easily ended 20-13 Patriots.

Mike Vrabel would have kicked a FG.

PatsFan2 said:

Mike Vrabel would have kicked a FG.

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That’s why he went for it on 4th and 1 later in game

Payton went into this game looking like a genius, now hes getting hammered even by broncos fans.

That rest up for 2 weeks comment really looks stupid now. Reminds me of when Tomlin was overheard calling us assholes before the 2016 afcc, he got blown out and hasn’t won a playoff game since. Coaches need to stay humble when you’re facing the Pats!!

NovaScotiaPatsFan said:

I didn't watch the AFCC game (I generally don't watch big games for health reasons, too long to explain) but I have to be honest Vrabes made the same stupid decision to go for it on 4th down that Payton did. The only difference is it worked out for us, just barely and we ended up getting the 3 points anyway. If it didn't all of us might be saying the same thing about his call.

Just keepin it a buck.

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No need to explain, but I get it. I start getting nervous a couple hours before regular season game starts.

yukon cornelius said:

i think the timeouts to ensure getting the ball back were fine.....you've got marcus jones back there, the chances he might break out a decent return aren't horrible, and i think at that point they knew their defense had put the clamps down.......they ended up getting lucky with how it worked out, but i think it wasn't a huge gamble, especially considering they knew the 2nd half opportunities were going to be imited

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I'm talking the timeout after they got pinned at like the 10. Should've let a little more time to kick off

ctpatsfan77 said:

Without getting bogged down in math, here's the decision Payton had to make:

A kick gets them 3 points about 99.5% of the time, but probably causes the Pats to get the ball back on the ensuing possession somewhere between the NE 20 and 35.

Going for it has, say, a 50% chance of getting them a new set of downs. Failing to convert, though, probably leaves NE with the ball inside their 10, making it harder to score on their next drive.

So: is the "certainty" of 3 points worth giving up on the chance at more points and/or better field position?

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The problem is that when you know bad weather is coming, all this probability stat goes out the window. You get what points you can and get ahead as much as you can before things turn to ****. This is where Vrabel and McD differentiated themselves from Payton. Both have experience coaching/playing in the snow.

Earlier I was trying to find out how many snow games Payton has coached in but had no luck.

ctpatsfan77 said:

No need to explain, but I get it. I start getting nervous a couple hours before regular season game starts.

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Yeah, Super Bowl 46 legit put me in the ER. I had an anxiety attack I thought was a heart attack.

PP2 said:

The problem is that when you know bad weather is coming, all this probability stat goes out the window. You get what points you can and get ahead as much as you can before things turn to ****. This is where Vrabel and McD differentiated themselves from Payton. Both have experience coaching/playing in the snow.

Earlier I was trying to find out how many snow games Payton has coached in but had no luck.

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They don't go out the window; the uncertainties just become larger.