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Payton’s fourth down call

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n1997y said:
Really good writing by Seth Wickersham here. I especially like his introductory description of the Bears game as background for Payton’s planning:



Inside Sean Payton's fourth-down Patriots-Broncos call

h/t PP2
Click to expand...
You take the points.

10 - 0 is still 2 scores up. 14 points up would have been an unsurmountable deficit for the Pats to close. But, the FG by Lutz was virtually money in the bank. That would have given the Broncos additional momentum, but by not converting the 4th down that gave the Pats momentum on a silver platter. As bad as the Pats were playing it was only 7 - 7 at halftime. How in hell if you're Payton do not have a better handle on future weather conditions in the 2nd half?

We watched BB win 6 Lombardi's taking the points. Rarely did BB gamble on 4th down.
 
n1997y said:
Really good writing by Seth Wickersham here. I especially like his introductory description of the Bears game as background for Payton’s planning:



Inside Sean Payton's fourth-down Patriots-Broncos call

h/t PP2
Click to expand...
We got Sean Payton yesterday.
Should have taken the points. Quit running the ball in a tie game, or down just three. I'd just be infuriated if that were my coach. As good as he was all year, he reverted.
 
He put far too much faith in Stidham (career 1-3).
And he should have factored inbound weather.

Take the 3
10-0 with a 2nd half snow squall as the 12th/13th/14th defensemen.
 
I understand the call. hindsight is 20/20.

They had the momentum until that point. If you get it and score a TD. The game is probably over. He went for the kill, I respect that.

I mean Vrabel did the exact same thing later in game and he got very lucky the ref blew the spot because I don’t think Drake got it.
 
Lagaffe_07 said:
I understand the call. hindsight is 20/20.

They had the momentum until that point. If you get it and score a TD. The game is probably over. He went for the kill, I respect that.

I mean Vrabel did the exact same thing later in game and he got very lucky the ref blew the spot because I don’t think Drake got it.
Click to expand...
I thought Vrable should have challenged the 3rd down spot. It looked like Henry definitely had it. So they should have never been in 4th down anyways.
 
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Triumph said:
You take the points.



We watched BB win 6 Lombardi's taking the points. Rarely did BB gamble on 4th down.
Click to expand...

Actually, BB seemed to be 'ahead of the trend' when it came to going for it on fourth downs. HE didn't go for it at the crazy rate that teams do today but just some notable ones that stick out.......

4th and 13 in Super Bowl 42 (didn't agree with)
The famous 4th and 2 at Indy in 2009 (I did agree with)
4th and 1 on their on side of the field on the opening drive in an AFC Championship game against the Colts (agreed with)

These are his most famous examples, but he definitely went for it more than other coaches in his time.
 
brdmaverick said:
Actually, BB seemed to be 'ahead of the trend' when it came to going for it on fourth downs. HE didn't go for it at the crazy rate that teams do today but just some notable ones that stick out.......

4th and 13 in Super Bowl 42 (didn't agree with)
The famous 4th and 2 at Indy in 2009 (I did agree with)
4th and 1 on their on side of the field on the opening drive in an AFC Championship game against the Colts (agreed with)

These are his most famous examples, but he definitely went for it more than other coaches in his time.
Click to expand...
Im would say that BB took the points way more.

BB went for it in Indy with Faulk because the defense could stop Manning. That one I agreed with.
 
I don't know why people are focusing on this thing. Either way, it's not a bad call. Kicking it is good. Going for it is good. It's not like the score was definitely going to stay that low if they went up 10-0. They had success moving the ball and the Patriots O was stuck.

But the Patriots drove the ball multiple times in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. The snow didn't get really bad until the end of the 3rd. The Patriots also missed 2 FGs and truthfully, they had a badly executed trick play on 2nd and goal from the 2, or it would've been 14-7. You kick just one of those FGs and the score is 17-7. AND then the Patriots actually throttled down their offense and played risk averse because they knew Stidham was going to have an awful time because they couldn't run.

In this context, I don't think the decision was bad at all.

Even if they scored a FG there, the game could've easily ended 20-10 Patriots.
 
It was idiotic. To be fair, I also didn't like Vrabel going for it as well. The ruling on the field could've gone either way. I was sweating it out during the commercial break with my friend telling me there's not enough evidence.
 
Another Payton gaffe, at the end of the game before using their (I think) 2nd timeout Denver let like 20 seconds go off the clock. They eventually put 10 of them back on, but still, in that situation every second counts.
 
Watching the play again, the Denver offensive line pretty much just took the play off. Nobody blocked or even really tried to block anyone. It was weird.
 
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Going for it wasn't as much the problem as THROWING the damn ball.
 
This year I saw a Justin Fields led Jets team go for it on 4th down on their own end on the first quarter and, predictably, fail.

It’s gone way too far the other way.
 
PlainOldEd said:
I thought Vrable should have challenged the 3rd down spot. It looked like Henry definitely had it. So they should have never been in 4th down anyways.
Click to expand...
And to make the lack of a challenge even worse they burned a time out anyway
 
n1997y said:
Really good writing by Seth Wickersham here. I especially like his introductory description of the Bears game as background for Payton’s planning:



Inside Sean Payton's fourth-down Patriots-Broncos call

h/t PP2
Click to expand...
Money Paragraph & quote:

Duo was Denver's top fourth-and-short run; Slipper Naked, a bootleg to the right, was its top fourth-and-short pass. He went with the pass. But at the snap, the Patriots surprised Denver by playing Red 2, a zone defense, behind a six-man front. The play had no chance. Stidham threw into traffic, incomplete. Denver not only missed out on three points but also missed out on its last, best opportunity for easy points. The Broncos never got so close to the end zone the rest of the game.

"I wish I'd stayed with the initial play call," Payton said softly, leaving the stadium. "The look they showed on film, and the look we saw, wasn't the look we got."
Click to expand...

Yeah, we got our next year DC on staff right now. GIVE ZAC A RAISE MIKE & RK !!
 
brdmaverick said:
Actually, BB seemed to be 'ahead of the trend' when it came to going for it on fourth downs. HE didn't go for it at the crazy rate that teams do today but just some notable ones that stick out.......

4th and 13 in Super Bowl 42 (didn't agree with)
The famous 4th and 2 at Indy in 2009 (I did agree with)
4th and 1 on their on side of the field on the opening drive in an AFC Championship game against the Colts (agreed with)

These are his most famous examples, but he definitely went for it more than other coaches in his time.
Click to expand...
In the 2000s, yes. But around 2010 he started becoming more and more conservative, to the point that by the end of his career he was the coach least likely to go for it on fourth down.
 
PlainOldEd said:
It has beccome an epidemic. I remember Tomlin against the Ravens I think, he went for it and missed and was asked later if he would do it again. He said "yes, we're trying to win the game".
Well, guess what? The team with the most points wins the game. So risking 3 automatic points is probably stupid.
Click to expand...
Apparently he learned it from Belichick who killed ourselves twice in the last seven minutes in the last AFCCG we played there ten years ago.
 
Without getting bogged down in math, here's the decision Payton had to make:

A kick gets them 3 points about 99.5% of the time, but probably causes the Pats to get the ball back on the ensuing possession somewhere between the NE 20 and 35.

Going for it has, say, a 50% chance of getting them a new set of downs. Failing to convert, though, probably leaves NE with the ball inside their 10, making it harder to score on their next drive.

So: is the "certainty" of 3 points worth giving up on the chance at more points and/or better field position?
 
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