Brady contract situation (Merged - UPDATED:Deal Done)

XLIX said:

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but you have a very funny way of trying to make your point. You’re trying to argue she has a voice in the matter and to support your argument, you give us an example of something we know Gisele has wanted for years (Tom to retire) - which is something he has not given her.

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Those discussions are markedly different at 43 than at 35, with children now entering their non-nanny years.

I, and no one out here, knows, but it's notable that she has gone public about it so much in the past 3 years - - usually he and his family don't let anything slip unless it is a true issue (i.e. mother's cancer) or already settled (i.e. mother's cancer). The fact that she has gone on national TV interviews and has tried to enlist Jay Feely on it (that's just the stuff we know) makes it obvious this has been a point of contention in that household. Anyone thinking it isn't an issue is fooling themselves.

My view (admittedly from a thousand miles away) is that she grudgingly accepts (and puts on her gameface terming it "I want him to do what feeds his soul") as long as it is with the safest team for his health and physical welfare - - the one with the players whose characteristics he knows well, with the OL coached by Scar and the TB12 center at the top of the stadium stairs. If anything Brady is a creature of obsessive habit. After 20 years in that space if he were to have to reinvent his wheel at age 43 that would be a very, very dangerous fish out of water situation. He's not a messy, freewheeling cheeseburger guzzling jazz musician like Favre (who did it with the Jets at 39 and the Vikes at 40 -41 and was sending **** pics to reporters). He's a family first fundamentalist metronome who has perfected his game. She's already publicly expressed anxiety about him continuing to play even for the set Patriot environment. That could only increase exponentially if he were to change his bubble at age 43.

But yeah, XLIX, I hear what you're saying. However his age 43 life is alot different than his age 35 life in many ways. Despite the complaints by haters that he's never hit, he does take 15-20 vicious shots each year and Gisele doesn't want him walking the way Joe Montana or Johnny Unitas walked 20 years after their careers. She knows that playing for some schlemiel team that is so desperate (meaning deficient) to offer $35 million per year to a 43 year old QB to come in brand new is like shacking up with a coke headed squatter.

It's Patriots or retirement. The only other NFL team uniform we may ever see him wearing will be in some comedic ESPN Sportscenter commercial. I will stand by that one. I promise to be here and take my lumps if he plays for any other NFL team (football on the field - - not saying anything about being a coach/advisor/exec).
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In the meantime, we get to watch live Patriots football (or a facsimile thereof) tomorrow night!!!!!

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borg said:

How old is Jack? Is it time for him to transition from a lower school to middle school, or middle school to high school? Seems a reasonable explanation why Brady was visiting Manhattan day schools for his Manhattan-living son. I also find it slightly hard to imagine his other kids, raised in suburbia, will move into Manhattan now. Maybe....which could mean... The house shopping outside NYC.......a weekender place?

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You should be factoring in that Bridget Moynahan is Jack's mother and that Brady and Moynahan have joint custody. Moynahan stars in "Blue Bloods", which is filmed in NYC, so she likely lives there. Brady can't simply take Jack with him wherever he wants. This move might be all about Jack being closer to his mother when he's visiting the Brady/Bundchen manor.

bresna said:

You should be factoring in that Bridget Moynahan is Jack's mother and that Brady and Moynahan have joint custody. Moynahan stars in "Blue Bloods", which is filmed in NYC, so she likely lives there. Brady can't simply take Jack with him wherever he wants. This move might be all about Jack being closer to his mother when he's visiting the Brady/Bundchen manor.

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Yep. Jack lives w/ Bridge in NYC and it does seem this is about Tom living closer to his son.

shmessy said:

It's Patriots or retirement. The only other NFL team uniform we may ever see him wearing will be in some jokey ESP Sportscenter commercial. I will stand by that one. I promise to be here and take my lumps if he plays for any other NFL team (football on the field - - not saying anything about being a coach/advisor/exec).
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In the meantime, we get to watch live Patriots football (or a facsimile thereof) tomorrow night!!!!!

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100%

Jackson 2 said:

If Kraft and Belichick had given a 42 year old QB a guaranteed 3 year contract at the money involved here they would have been drawn and quartered by many of the very same people who are eviscerating them for not having done so. If Tom Brady proves he can play successfully for this year (and I'm one of those who believes he can) there won't be any uncertainty. He'll be free to go wherever the f### he wants, including here, and likely name his price.

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I call BS. I don’t think ANYONE would have minded if Tom got a 2 yr extension at 25-30m. If he got 2yr 60m guaranteed with 8m this year and 26 each 2 years after that, everyone would have been fine with that. The cap hits would still be manageable and inline with what other top 10 QB cap hits are.

rochrist said:

1 is NOT correct.

From Article 12, Section 8 of the CBA: “The contract of a Veteran Player may not be renegotiated to increase the Salary to be paid to the player during the original terms of the contract for a period of twelve months after the player’s most recent contract renegotiation. The first renegotiation of a Veteran Player Contract, however, may take place at any time.”
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As long as Brady’s new 2020 cap number is less than $36.75 million a restructure/extension would be permissible anytime in 2020. (credit: Miguel)

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Let’s game theory this to reveal Kraft’s folly.

Let’s discuss the point about guaranteed vs not. Players want guaranteed money since they are taking injury risk and performance risk. They are committing to the team and taking less money in guaranteed in return for security.

If you force the player to play out the final year without guaranteed money in future, there is no incentive to take a discount or to not explore your options elsewhere. This is why even with players we retained after they played out their final year and who were not franchise tagged (like Hightower, McCourty, Moss and others) they all went to check what was on offer at a different team. Once you already took the injury and performance risk of the last year, why would you not. I would. It just makes sense.

And if you don’t want the players to shop around you need to lock them earlier. This is why Brady or almost any franchise QB never ever play their final contract year during their career.

All this talk of Brady and Kraft and BB having an “understanding” is ********. Brady wants to play multiple years, feels he is capable, and he is the one taking injury risk which might preclude that, not Kraft or BB. Brady is the one putting his body at risk. He is right to be aggrieved and he certainly sounds like he is.

After another solid 2019 season where he performs well and Kraft and BB come knocking on door in Feb saying “errrr yeah. You held up. Nice job. Let’s renegotiate that 2020 down from $30m to XX and make it guaranteed”, Brady would be right to tell them to F off but would likely tell them, “that’s nice. Let’s wait 1 more month and see what else is on offer. What’s the rush. I know what you’re offering. I’ll decide next month”. It’s not like Brady’s taking any injury risk waiting from February to March. There’s NO incentive to agree to a restructure in February.

Kraft and BB have gambled that Brady’s performance will drop off and he will hence agree to a restructure but even in that case Brady would be better off checking what someone else offers in March.

Only scenario this pans out well for Pats if Brady retires after this season (I think unlikely) or if other teams are willing to offer less (I think impossible) or if Brady ignores all other massive offers and still returns to accept the Pats’ piddling offer (possible).

I think this is a poor bet by Kraft and BB. They could have guaranteed 2020 and voided 2021 and the rolling part could be 2 years instead of 1 year.

Biffins said:

I think this is a poor bet by Kraft and BB. They could have guaranteed 2020 and voided 2021 and the rolling part could be 2 years instead of 1 year.

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I wouldn't say it's a poor bet. If we all put our actuary hats on, the likelihood of a 42 year old QB playing 16 games in 2019 and 16 more in 2020 and playing at his current level of play is remote. With every contract the NEP i'm sure are leveraging some kind of analysis such as this.

My Model Monday: Modeling NFL Injuries

I understand the NEP position. It's cold, shrewd and unemotional.

With that said, it is a gamble as if Tom walks they do not have a viable replacement in place at the most important position. That in itself is enough of a reason to have him locked into 2020 at something

Biffins said:

Let’s game theory this to reveal Kraft’s folly.

Let’s discuss the point about guaranteed vs not. Players want guaranteed money since they are taking injury risk and performance risk. They are committing to the team and taking less money in guaranteed in return for security.

If you force the player to play out the final year without guaranteed money in future, there is no incentive to take a discount or to not explore your options elsewhere. This is why even with players we retained after they played out their final year and who were not franchise tagged (like Hightower, McCourty, Moss and others) they all went to check what was on offer at a different team. Once you already took the injury and performance risk of the last year, why would you not. I would. It just makes sense.

And if you don’t want the players to shop around you need to lock them earlier. This is why Brady or almost any franchise QB never ever play their final contract year during their career.

All this talk of Brady and Kraft and BB having an “understanding” is ********. Brady wants to play multiple years, feels he is capable, and he is the one taking injury risk which might preclude that, not Kraft or BB. Brady is the one putting his body at risk. He is right to be aggrieved and he certainly sounds like he is.

After another solid 2019 season where he performs well and Kraft and BB come knocking on door in Feb saying “errrr yeah. You held up. Nice job. Let’s renegotiate that 2020 down from $30m to XX and make it guaranteed”, Brady would be right to tell them to F off but would likely tell them, “that’s nice. Let’s wait 1 more month and see what else is on offer. What’s the rush. I know what you’re offering. I’ll decide next month”. It’s not like Brady’s taking any injury risk waiting from February to March. There’s NO incentive to agree to a restructure in February.

Kraft and BB have gambled that Brady’s performance will drop off and he will hence agree to a restructure but even in that case Brady would be better off checking what someone else offers in March.

Only scenario this pans out well for Pats if Brady retires after this season (I think unlikely) or if other teams are willing to offer less (I think impossible) or if Brady ignores all other massive offers and still returns to accept the Pats’ piddling offer (possible).

I think this is a poor bet by Kraft and BB. They could have guaranteed 2020 and voided 2021 and the rolling part could be 2 years instead of 1 year.

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Nicecomparison with Moss/Hightower/McCourty.

Moss was a decade younger and Hightower/McCourty were 1.5 decades younger than Brady will be next year. None of them were anywhere near close to being billionaires.

You could have saved yourself alot of keystrokes.

I sincerely hope Brady plays to 45. I'm not worried about him going to another team for money.

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LOL, you gotta love local media. Pretty much all I hear is how they doubt Brady is actually leaving then they spend the next 2 hours making every case for him leaving. Then they mock and challenge every caller that states a case that he's not leaving.

Jackson 2 said:

If Kraft and Belichick had given a 42 year old QB a guaranteed 3 year contract at the money involved here they would have been drawn and quartered by many of the very same people who are eviscerating them for not having done so. If Tom Brady proves he can play successfully for this year (and I'm one of those who believes he can) there won't be any uncertainty. He'll be free to go wherever the f### he wants, including here, and likely name his price.

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Didn't Tom Brady just finish proving he played successfully by bringing home another SB at 41? So, if he proves at 42 he can still succeed, then and only then a 43 yo is worth taking a multi-year contract risk? This doesn't make any sense. The time was now, fresh off a SB win to extend the GOAT and keep him in NE. Something else is going on, we just don't know all the facts.

I know some are offended by ESPN however this is from Mike Reiss:

Tom Brady's extension reflects his priorities, rare trust with Patriots

robertweathers said:

I wouldn't say it's a poor bet. If we all put our actuary hats on, the likelihood of a 42 year old QB playing 16 games in 2019 and 16 more in 2020 and playing at his current level of play is remote. With every contract the NEP i'm sure are leveraging some kind of analysis such as this.

My Model Monday: Modeling NFL Injuries

I understand the NEP position. It's cold, shrewd and unemotional.

With that said, it is a gamble as if Tom walks they do not have a viable replacement in place at the most important position.

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If he gets injured in a few weeks in a September game, they are in even worse shape than if he wasn't here next year.

49ers had Young when they let their HoF QB go. The Packers had Rodgers when they let their HoF QB go. The Colts had Luck when they let their HoF QB go.

The Pats have no one. It makes no goddamned sense to risk losing Brady have a freaking contract dispute. What the **** is Kraft thinking.

SammyBlueCat said:

I know some are offended by ESPN however this is from Mike Reiss:

Tom Brady's extension reflects his priorities, rare trust with Patriots

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This is from a couple days ago before the news of Brady’s house going up for sale and other reports alluding to Brady’s dissatisfaction over the whole situation.

shmessy said:

If he gets injured in a few weeks in a September game, they are in even worse shape than if he wasn't here next year.

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My understanding is that if Brady were to be injured, the years wouldn't void.. Though I could be wrong on this.

The paranoia and delusion in this thread is strong.

QuantumMechanic said:

According to Reiss the 2020 and 2021 cap hits are so high (almost $37 and $39mil respectively) precisely in order to give them headroom to renegotiate lower before the contract voids.

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After all this analysis I can't wait for the NFLPA and NFL talks to stall over one of the big ticket items resulting in an uncapped year making a lot of the worries about his cap hits pointless.

DaBruinz said:

My understanding is that if Brady were to be injured, the years wouldn't void.. Though I could be wrong on this.

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I was talking football-wise.

AndyJohnson said:

The reports said it automatically voids.

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That would be correct, but, between now and the March 16, the first of three days that teams can talk with players who will become UFAs, the two sides can negotiate this deal any way they want as long as the cap number does not exceed the parameters of this $23-30-32M deal. Brady got his raise for 2019 and an offer of longer than a one-year extension.

I think the key dates to focus on are March 16-18, 2020 when other teams can contact Brady and his agent to discuss interest. Before that the Patriots can renegotiate the current deal i.e., guarantee money and make it an enforceable extension, or wait to see if Brady gets competing offers at numbers north of $30 million and $32 million. So much of that depends on his health and production, and whether the suitor has the kind of offensive line and help to give Brady confidence.

I think both sides got basically what they wanted but failed to reach agreement on how to structure 20 and 21. The Patriots have offered $62 million over those two future years. What is guaranteed versus what is incentivized seems to be the sticking point. Neither side knows what decent incentives look like for a 43-year-old QB It's never been done before.

If some team comes along with $63 million fully guaranteed in that March 16-18 window, Bob Kraft will have some thinking to do. But only a desperate team would do that, and desperate teams are unlikely to have that kind of cap room which could turn it all into dead money if Brady gets hurt. The other piece of this is what does contract insurance cost for a guy like Brady? The underwriter will have an unprecedented calculation of risk and premium.

From Curren

"When [Brady] stepped to the bargaining table this time and knew that he had an expiring contract, he wanted to be here," Curran said. "What he wanted to get was some long-term security that would allow him to play until 43, 44, maybe 45 as he has stated.

"So when he stepped to the table, and the Patriots weren't giving him the surety he would get that, what he quickly pivoted to was wanting to have his own autonomy.”

This is a bit of a roll of the dice for the Pats. If Brady plays well again this year and gets a big 2 year offer from a team like the Rams or the Cowboys we don’t have a Young or Rodgers stepping in.