Ringer on NE player acquisition strategies

Interesting read...

The Patriots’ Blueprint for Outsmarting Everyone in Pick-for-Player Trades

BB's major in economics plays a huge part in his philosophy.

Future value, opportunity cost, certainty vs uncertainty. BB could have had a killer career in Finances, lol.

QuantumMechanic said:

Interesting read...

The Patriots’ Blueprint for Outsmarting Everyone in Pick-for-Player Trades

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Excellent read, thanks for sharing.


Highly recommended to everyone who visits here.

JayNM said:

BB's major in economics plays a huge part in his philosophy.

Future value, opportunity cost, certainty vs uncertainty. BB could have had a killer career in Finances, lol.

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By no means am I hosting Mad Money anytime soon but BB absolutely treats players like stocks and the team a portfolio.

JayNM said:

BB's major in economics plays a huge part in his philosophy.

Future value, opportunity cost, certainty vs uncertainty. BB could have had a killer career in Finances, lol.

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I think Ernie did.......

robertweathers said:

By no means am I hosting Mad Money anytime soon but BB absolutely treats players like stocks and the team a portfolio.

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Get that framed....

Patsfanin Philly said:

I think Ernie did.......

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Who's this Ernie you speak of?

robertweathers said:

By no means am I hosting Mad Money anytime soon but BB absolutely treats players like stocks and the team a portfolio.

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Exactly planned well in advance know when to hold when to buy when to sell and don't get stuck in the major Financial fallacies

I really like this latest trick of trade a draft pick for a player and a later pick.

The Bennett deal is a great example of that. BB trades a 4th for Marty and a 6th rounder. They use the 6th as part of a great deal to get a future 4th. Marty helps us win a Super Bowl, then leaves town, and projects to...bring us a 4th in next year's compensatory draft picks.

So we basically got a year of Marty and a 6th that we used quite well for delaying on using a 4th a few years.

The best part is because we're often picking late, the trade backs don't even matter as much. Like this year, we trade a 2nd round pick for Kony Ealy and a 3rd. Except our 2nd is the last pick of the round, and the 3rd is the 8th pick in the round. So we moved 8 spots back and get a player too.

The Patriots, unlike the Browns, don't have many, if any, weaknesses or open roster spots. Swapping picks for players makes a lot more sense as they can increase the probability of acquiring impact players that start immediately.

For the stinky Browns, the crapshoot method of stockpiling picks Works great for them.

Seems like a conversation that's been talked about often here.

Every good article in mainstream media about the pats is either inside info, or a recycled idea from here.

This article fails to take into account New England's massive amount of cap space that allowed them to buy near-certain production.
Less game changing philosophy....more about the freedom that excess dollars allows.

I think another significance to BB's draft pick trades this year, is that BB has always treated the draft as a lottery where there is no sure thing, so he wants as many tickets as he can get.

This was such a strong draft year, that the UDFA class was also particularly strong, so BB got his extra tickets there.

Rumor has it that Harvey Langi would have been the Pats' last pick if they hadn't traded it, and the UDFA crop overall has a bunch of interesting prospects.

The Gr8est said:

I think another significance to BB's draft pick trades this year, is that BB has always treated the draft as a lottery where there is no sure thing, so he wants as many tickets as he can get.

This was such a strong draft year, that the UDFA class was also particularly strong, so BB got his extra tickets there.

Rumor has it that Harvey Langi would have been the Pats' last pick if they hadn't traded it, and the UDFA crop overall has a bunch of interesting prospects.

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Funny thing (for me) is that because this was such a strong draft year, I figured Belichick would maneuver to end up with ten or twelve draft picks.

Instead he decided he could find value beyond round seven.

Once again, chess versus checkers.

The more you read the more it becomes apparent this franchise is just really smart.

What I liked about the article was it wasn't simply a fanboy ode of adulation. It was a serious dicussion of the pros AND cons of this kind of player acquistion strategy.

A couple of additional points;

1. The Greatest makes a key point in that our UDFA class is likely to lead to at least 2 of those guys making the team, so the team will still likely have 6 or so rookies make the team, which is a decent haul in any year, let alone a team like the Pats with very few holes.

2. The beauty of BB is that he is NEVER afraid to try something different or be afraid to fail. Clearly what he did this year will have both positive AND negative repercussions over the short (positive) and long term (possibly negative). But the fact is that BB has never been tied to just ONE way of player acquisition. The offense that put up over 500 yds of offense in the superbowl had just 2 key players that were drafted in the top 62 (Bennett, Solder), yet had 5 regular offensive contributors that came into the league as UDFA's (Hogan, Andrews, Amendola, Lewis, Devlin)

This article was disappointing. It gave a bunch of examples of how the Patriots traded draft picks for players in some cases, and players for draft picks in other cases. While it attempted to show some draft value, I didn't really see any type unique insight, other than the team is rather unpredictable and fluid. The truth is, though, that most teams employ similar strategies, and the main difference is in the Patriots understanding of economics and their player evaluations. They can exploit value because of their superior scouting and coaching.

I also hoped it was going to dig a lot deeper into the analytics, particularly for this very bold 2016 offseason. As we have seen teams stockpile draft picks, such as the Browns, is it possible that the pendulum has swung so far towards draft picks that it's no longer a good value proposition? I was hoping to see some analysis on this, as Belichick's economics education is often overlooked. He looks as the supply and demand and capitalizes on it, which is the main theme in the team's macro personnel strategy.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

This article was disappointing. It gave a bunch of examples of how the Patriots traded draft picks for players in some cases, and players for draft picks in other cases. While it attempted to show some draft value, I didn't really see any type unique insight, other than the team is rather unpredictable and fluid. The truth is, though, that most teams employ similar strategies, and the main difference is in the Patriots understanding of economics and their player evaluations. They can exploit value because of their superior scouting and coaching.

I also hoped it was going to dig a lot deeper into the analytics, particularly for this very bold 2016 offseason. As we have seen teams stockpile draft picks, such as the Browns, is it possible that the pendulum has swung so far towards draft picks that it's no longer a good value proposition? I was hoping to see some analysis on this, as Belichick's economics education is often overlooked. He looks as the supply and demand and capitalizes on it, which is the main theme in the team's macro personnel strategy.

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Bill has always skewed against the grain. I believe one of the reasons BB ran the 3-4 when 28 other teams were running the 4-3 was that regardless of where he was drafting he'd be able to draft guys who other teams passed up, but had the unique skill set that thrived in the 3-4 among the DL and LB's. When that changed and a majority of teams were running the 3-4, he turned back to 4-3 and went from carrying 8 0r 9 LB's like he did when he first came here, to carrying just 5, with only 3 or 4 getting significant snap counts on the regular D.

Lately what has set the Pats apart is their ability to change their game plan or both sides of the ball specifically to each weekly opponent. There IS no set scheme. There is no base offense or defense. The Pats have become the complete opposite of "we are who we are, and try to stop us."

As a strategy it makes complete sense. But never forget, if it wasn't so extremely difficult to pull off, everyone would be doing it. There is a reason so few teams can pull it off.....and something I'll want to talk more about as we head into the real dog days of the off season in a week or two after the last OTA's are done.

signbabybrady said:

Who's this Ernie you speak of?

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convertedpatsfan said:

I really like this latest trick of trade a draft pick for a player and a later pick.

The Bennett deal is a great example of that. BB trades a 4th for Marty and a 6th rounder. They use the 6th as part of a great deal to get a future 4th. Marty helps us win a Super Bowl, then leaves town, and projects to...bring us a 4th in next year's compensatory draft picks.

So we basically got a year of Marty and a 6th that we used quite well for delaying on using a 4th a few years.

The best part is because we're often picking late, the trade backs don't even matter as much. Like this year, we trade a 2nd round pick for Kony Ealy and a 3rd. Except our 2nd is the last pick of the round, and the 3rd is the 8th pick in the round. So we moved 8 spots back and get a player too.

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The move back from 64 to 72 is worth 40 value points - equivalent to the 132nd overall pick - according to the old trade value chart. According to the new AV trade value chart, this trade down is worth o.7 points, the equivalent of the 204th pick.

Assuming that Ealy is a one-year rental, and given the cap situation heading into 2018 I would think he is, then he stands to net the team a comp pick.

If Ealy replicates Mingo's role on the team (core STer with minimal contribution to the defense), then signs elsewhere, the team maybe nets a 7th round comp pick. In this situation, Ealy costs the equivalent of a mid 7th round pick according to the old chart. The cost is off the AV chart because it is so low.

If Ealy performs similarly to Sheard then signs elsewhere - probably the most likely scenario - then the team nets a comp pick in the 4th to 5th round range. In this case, you get a year of Ealy for free according to the old chart, and gain the equivalent of a low 5th according to the AV chart.

If Ealy has a Mark Anderson 2011 kind of year, posting double digit sacks while defenses load up against Flowers, he signs a big money deal and the Pats get a 3rd round comp pick. In this case, the Patriots are getting a year of star play and earning dollars to the penny in draft value.

This move gets lost in the hype of Gilmore, Cooks, Butler and Garoppolo, but it could end up the best value trade of the Belichick era.