PatsFans.com Menu
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans

Excellent Michael Hurley Article: Significant Aspect Of Garoppolo Trade That Nobody’s Talking About


Status
Not open for further replies.
Solders contract is up and he cannot be franchised.

Butler isn't getting an RFA contract and if we don't trade him he is fine in a year.

Just because he hasn't doesn't mean he wouldn't if he saw it as an "extra" first rounder which is the context here.

No matter what you believe about mixon you can't say you don't want a 1st or second because you want to bank on him being there in the 3rd.
Polian has said he will go in the first.

The heart of the debate is-what's more important to the Patriots next season? A solid backup QB or what they can get by trading him?

If the number 1 pick is in play- no brainer, we do the trade and draft Myles Garrett.

If Cleveland drafts Garrett and offers us Ogbah (more or less a similar player to Garrett) and some picks, I'd take that trade.

Other teams and/or later picks it gets a little hazier. We can always tag and trade JG next year and a solid backup QB may be more important to our quest for #6 next year than whomever these picks turn out to be.
 
The "incident" aside, there are two things I don't like about Mixon ...
1) He fumbled about once every 50 touches in college (almost Ameer Abdullah level).
2) In live interviews I've listened to, he comes off as ignorant, apathetic and unprepared.

Most athletes sound ignorant and unprepared to me. If he's a hopelessly stupid thug with a fumbling problem, that's one thing; if he's just a not too bright kid with star potential who needs a little coaching, that's another. I trust our scouts can determine this better than I can.
 
I don't understand. Is there something "implausible" about my math? Or with Miguel's numbers?

The Pats had, what, 20 FAs this year? Starting with about $60M in cap space, BB managed to re-sign/replace to the point where the team has (once again) no significant holes going into the draft. And they still have nearly $27M left (roughly 45%). Even after signing Gilmore to a huge contract. Even without restructuring/extending anybody.

What other major cap expenses will they have yet this year to eat into that $27M? The 2016 cap hit for the draftees from their current pick selections will be only around $500k, according to Miguel.

How will it be so impossible for them to handle an additional 10 FA in 2018 with around $60M (after franchising JG)?

"Cheesy rotation"? What makes it "cheesy"? Brady was effectively a healthy scratch for the first four games of 2016 and it certainly didn't seem to hurt him. Might even have helped "the old man."
To sum up my opinion, I find it difficult to see how we could have 80 million in available space, that's all.

We had about 40 players under contract this year and 65m dollars available (with no 20m franchise tag). Next year, we have many more free agents coming up, with only 33/63 players under contract and 53m dollars available, and you want to automatically take 20m away via the franchise tag, which would leave about 33m left, and another 29 players to sign. That's my reasoning. Yes, they'll carry money over. We agree there. I don't think we can assume any more than 15m or so. That takes it back up to around the same as this year, with more players up for FA, less players under contract, and the need to blow 20+ all at once via the tag.

In other words, I don't dispute that they can manage to tag Garoppolo like you suggest, but they almost certainly won't have 80m dollars at their disposal to do it with. Even if we manage to look past the financial issues, we'd have to assume that one or the other will be leaving. Brady just came off what was probably his best season ever, and JG isn't going to want to hold the clipboard. More importantly, Belichick isn't going to want to tie up 42m dollars at the QB position.

As far as the platooning idea, I respectfully disagree with taking the league's best QB off the field, particularly when he'll have over a 20m dollar cap hit. You're trying to keep both, and while that's a great idea, unfortunately, I come back to the thought that it just isn't feasible. As you can see, there have been lots of discussions on the matter and no one can seem to come up with a reasonable solution to keeping both. In the end, I hope that you're correct and they keep both, and I certainly don't mean to discredit your opinion in any way. I just find it a bit far-fetched.
 
I see your point that has obvious value to the team trading for him but I also doubt that JG is gonna be someones starter on a 1 year 900k deal. If someone trades for him they going to have to pay him something now.
You are correct but if he is traded this year, his new club will have more leverage over him since he still has a year left on his deal at $900K; so he is worth more in trade now.
 
The heart of the debate is-what's more important to the Patriots next season? A solid backup QB or what they can get by trading him?

If the number 1 pick is in play- no brainer, we do the trade and draft Myles Garrett.

If Cleveland drafts Garrett and offers us Ogbah (more or less a similar player to Garrett) and some picks, I'd take that trade.

Other teams and/or later picks it gets a little hazier. We can always tag and trade JG next year and a solid backup QB may be more important to our quest for #6 next year than whomever these picks turn out to be.
There are many players who will be available at 12 thatveill helpbtge team win. Without Brady we aren't winning a SB so getting that high pick is important even if the player doesn't add a lot this year.
The 12 will have a lot more value than Jimmy g and the value will be less next year if he is tagged
 
There are many players who will be available at 12 thatveill helpbtge team win. Without Brady we aren't winning a SB so getting that high pick is important even if the player doesn't add a lot this year.
The 12 will have a lot more value than Jimmy g and the value will be less next year if he is tagged

It's not inconceivable that a 40 year old QB could sprain or strain something and miss a few games. Also, if the Patriots are as good as they look on paper, the 2nd string QB may be getting plenty of 4th quarter snaps in blowout wins.

A quality backup that can help keep Brady rested and fresh for the playoffs may have more value than you're giving credit for.
 
It's not inconceivable that a 40 year old QB could sprain or strain something and miss a few games. Also, if the Patriots are as good as they look on paper, the 2nd string QB may be getting plenty of 4th quarter snaps in blowout wins.

A quality backup that can help keep Brady rested and fresh for the playoffs may have more value than you're giving credit for.
Who takes snaps in a blowout is irrelevant.
Not inconceivable he could get injured but he hasn't in a long time. I'm not saying the backup has no value I'm saying a #1 pick has more.
 
I am using what BB has oft said, that QB is the sports most important position, one that you do not want to get caught short. So, I want to cover all bases and keep them both for as many years as possible.

No one knows when TB will lost it now that he is 40 year old TB.

That said, I would never bet against TB, if he says 3 or 4 years -- he's just they guy to defy everything known to football.

So,what I am suggesting and what I think BB will do, is keep 'em both for at least two years because we can and then re-evaluate based on what is known at that time.

Our cap management and ever increasing cap numbers provide the capitol to pull it off without hurting the team.


As reasonable as Brady has been about money I wouldn't blame him one bit if he told the Patriots to shove
it up their asses if they were to pay Jimmy Garrapolo 25 million to hold the clipboard while he makes 15 to play every game.
 
To sum up my opinion, I find it difficult to see how we could have 80 million in available space, that's all.

We had about 40 players under contract this year and 65m dollars available (with no 20m franchise tag). Next year, we have many more free agents coming up, with only 33/63 players under contract and 53m dollars available, and you want to automatically take 20m away via the franchise tag, which would leave about 33m left, and another 29 players to sign. That's my reasoning. Yes, they'll carry money over. We agree there. I don't think we can assume any more than 15m or so. That takes it back up to around the same as this year, with more players up for FA, less players under contract, and the need to blow 20+ all at once via the tag.

In other words, I don't dispute that they can manage to tag Garoppolo like you suggest, but they almost certainly won't have 80m dollars at their disposal to do it with. Even if we manage to look past the financial issues, we'd have to assume that one or the other will be leaving. Brady just came off what was probably his best season ever, and JG isn't going to want to hold the clipboard. More importantly, Belichick isn't going to want to tie up 42m dollars at the QB position.

As far as the platooning idea, I respectfully disagree with taking the league's best QB off the field, particularly when he'll have over a 20m dollar cap hit. You're trying to keep both, and while that's a great idea, unfortunately, I come back to the thought that it just isn't feasible. As you can see, there have been lots of discussions on the matter and no one can seem to come up with a reasonable solution to keeping both. In the end, I hope that you're correct and they keep both, and I certainly don't mean to discredit your opinion in any way. I just find it a bit far-fetched.

Unless I'm missing something, Miguel's overthecap.com cap space calculation for 2018 does not yet include any projected carryover from 2017. Ergo ...

.. $178M - projected 2018 cap
. -$125M - 2018 cap hits for current contracts
= .$ 53M
+ .$ 27M - 2017 cap space that could be carried over
= .$ 80M
 
There are many players who will be available at 12 thatveill helpbtge team win. Without Brady we aren't winning a SB so getting that high pick is important even if the player doesn't add a lot this year.
The 12 will have a lot more value than Jimmy g and the value will be less next year if he is tagged

And if Brady suffers a career-ending injury this season and the Pats have only Brissett and a bunch of high draft picks, they may well become the Bills or even the Browns for at least 2-3 years. And that "2-3 years" assumes that either Brissett quickly develops into a franchise QB or the Pats can somehow come up with another franchise QB in the next couple drafts (not easy). Could be even longer.

And how long is BB likely to continue coaching?

It seems to me that there's a potentially significant downside to trading JG "early" on the hypothesis that a bunch of guys drafted high at other positions can make up the difference.
 
If Bill thinks Jimmy is Goat part 2, my guess is he keeps him. If he doesn't think that my guess is he trades him for the most he can possibly get, and at a time it is most advantageous to the team.

Operating on the he isn't Goat part deux, I am not sure what value Bill places on having JG as a backup this year, but I am sure he would take that into account on any trade proposal.

Trade proposal > JG as a backup this year + JG's trade value next year after being franchised. If the trade proposal isn't greater he won't trade him.

There is a statistical chance that JG will be injured in the first preseason game, or retire or who know what, which would leave his trade value next year at 0. There is also a chance that Brady will retire tomorrow, and JG will become the starter which would make his value to the Patriots next year much higher.

We don't know what any of these things are, we have speculation from the media and guesses. Until we do we can't really answer the question.
 
And if Brady suffers a career-ending injury this season and the Pats have only Brissett and a bunch of high draft picks, they may well become the Bills or even the Browns for at least 2-3 years. And that "2-3 years" assumes that either Brissett quickly develops into a franchise QB or the Pats can somehow come up with another franchise QB in the next couple drafts (not easy). Could be even longer.

And how long is BB likely to continue coaching?

It seems to me that there's a potentially significant downside to trading JG "early" on the hypothesis that a bunch of guys drafted high at other positions can make up the difference.
Hypotheticals work both ways. Let's say we keep Jimmy for two more but Brady is still going strong. Now you've spent 20+ MIL and Jimmy's gone. Except now you don't have the extra picks that could be used for the next QB.
 
There are many players who will be available at 12 thatveill helpbtge team win. Without Brady we aren't winning a SB so getting that high pick is important even if the player doesn't add a lot this year.
The 12 will have a lot more value than Jimmy g and the value will be less next year if he is tagged

there is nothing that JG has done to support your claim.......I'd feel alot better about him stepping in week 2 than when brady did in 2001
 
Who takes snaps in a blowout is irrelevant.
Not inconceivable he could get injured but he hasn't in a long time. I'm not saying the backup has no value I'm saying a #1 pick has more.

It's certainly a rare situation where a QB his age is playing at such a high level. Look at Payton Manning's 2015 season. I think it's fair and accurate to say the Bronco's don't win the superbowl that year if they didn't have a capable backup QB.

Jimmy G knows the Patriots system and has proven he can win with this team. This makes him uniquely qualified as a backup QB we know will keep us competitive if we lose Brady for a few games.

No draft pick is a sure thing and even a top 5 pick blue chip prospect may take a few years to develop.
 
It's certainly a rare situation where a QB his age is playing at such a high level. Look at Payton Manning's 2015 season. I think it's fair and accurate to say the Bronco's don't win the superbowl that year if they didn't have a capable backup QB.

Jimmy G knows the Patriots system and has proven he can win with this team. This makes him uniquely qualified as a backup QB we know will keep us competitive if we lose Brady for a few games.

No draft pick is a sure thing and even a top 5 pick blue chip prospect may take a few years to develop.

In case you haven't noticed the Broncos didn't win because they had a good back up quarterback they won because of their defense. Osweiler is so bad that he became the first QB in NFL history to be traded with a high draft pick just to get rid of him.

As for Garrapolo it's an obvious trade off, either get high draft picks with some risk or pass on the picks and use the next season to figure out his replacement for 2018 and beyond, which would mean a 3rd round comp pick at best.
 
Jimmy G won one game against a team that didn't make the playoffs. He looked great in doing that. However that doesn't really mean he can win the superbowl with this team. It means he can win against a mediocre team with this team. I think most qb's in this league could win a game with this team. It doesn't necessarily make them a great QB.
 
Jimmy G won one game against a team that didn't make the playoffs. He looked great in doing that. However that doesn't really mean he can win the superbowl with this team. It means he can win against a mediocre team with this team. I think most qb's in this league could win a game with this team. It doesn't necessarily make them a great QB.

The thing that no one really knows is how Belichick and their staff see Brissett? They obviously like Garrapolo or he would be gone by now, but trading him would mean Brissett takes over as back up, and he's not likely to trade Garrapolo if they don't have confidence in Brissett.
 
The thing that no one really knows is how Belichick and their staff see Brissett? They obviously like Garrapolo or he would be gone by now, but trading him would mean Brissett takes over as back up, and he's not likely to trade Garrapolo if they don't have confidence in Brissett.

After all is said and done i think it really is what it is:

Unless Sasha is going to sashay up to BB today with a deal that cannot be refused they keep the best backup in football at a great cap number.

Then, kick that can down the road to next year where more information is known about 41 year old TB and how JB has developed.

While tag and trade next year will of course bring far less than a trade this year -- it does appear no team is offering what it would take to part with 2017's best insurance policy at the most important position.
 
It's certainly a rare situation where a QB his age is playing at such a high level. Look at Payton Manning's 2015 season. I think it's fair and accurate to say the Bronco's don't win the superbowl that year if they didn't have a capable backup QB.

Jimmy G knows the Patriots system and has proven he can win with this team.

So did Matt Cassell.


This makes him uniquely qualified as a backup QB we know will keep us competitive if we lose Brady for a few games.
I bet you could say that about a lot of JAG QBs. Bring Hoyer or Fitzpatrick here and either guy could keep the Pats competitive. That doesn't say a lot about JG.
No draft pick is a sure thing and even a top 5 pick blue chip prospect may take a few years to develop.
Very true... but JG is far from a sure thing either. As I said before there's reason to think it's much more likely he is a system guy than a future superstar.
 
There is still a lot of time until the draft, and based upon what Bill has done in the last few years, I am not sure the Patriots will be hurt waiting until just before the draft to accept any trades. I don't imagine they will go out and sign another qb if they decide to trade Jimmy, so no rush until then.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


TRANSCRIPT: Patriots QB Drake Maye Conference Call
Patriots Now Have to Get to Work After Taking Maye
TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo After Patriots Take Drake Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/25: News and Notes
Patriots Kraft ‘Involved’ In Decision Making?  Zolak Says That’s Not the Case
MORSE: Final First Round Patriots Mock Draft
Slow Starts: Stark Contrast as Patriots Ponder Which Top QB To Draft
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/24: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/23: News and Notes
MORSE: Final 7 Round Patriots Mock Draft, Matthew Slater News
Back
Top