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So much has changed in two years

"should be". Do you mean should be according to you?
No, anyone that actually watches the NFL. It's a bad ranking - like really bad. Total amateur hour.
Is trolling not agreeing with TheRainMaker?
Ranking a team 14th in the NFL after making the Super Bowl and their young QB finishing one vote shy of the MVP is flat out trolling. This is very basic analysis.
I don't think that I have read any major media or betting sites that consider the patriots in the top 3 teams, as you do. I don't know any that have us in the top 5, even after adding Brown.
Good, then take the odds. I've been watching the NFL for a long time and it was too easy predicting the Pats having a winning record in 2025. Here's some of my receipts:
PLEASE LIST
all the betting sites that have the patriots as as the 3rd most likely team to make the SB.
all the betting sites that have the patriots as the most likely to win the AFC CHampionship.
all the betting sites that have the patriots in the top 3 strongest teams.
AS AN ASIDE
Please list the betting sites that have the patriots as clear favorites to win the AFCE. I do think that some sites are starting have us winning the same number of games as BUF. Even those sites, think that BUF is more likely to be in the AFC Championship Game.
I have better things to do with my time and don't need to read anyone's analysis to validate my own opinion. If I do read it, it's for curiosity as to what others think.

I said it in 2025 and I'll say it again, this division belongs to the Pats now. Buffalo is cooked. They just fired their HC for an OC that is not well liked by fans and a 1st time HC. Their defense continually is getting worse while the Pats have 8 of 11 starters returning on defense and one upgrade in the secondary (Byard). The only way Buffalo takes the AFCE is by default with Patriots injuries. If anyone says with a straight face that the Bills roster is superior than the Pats, then they are either delusional or they are 12 years old.
 
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No, anyone that actually watches the NFL. It's a bad ranking - like really bad. Total amateur hour.

Ranking a team 14th in the NFL after making the Super Bowl and their young QB finishing one vote shy of the MVP is flat out trolling. This is very basic analysis.

Good, then take the odds. I've been watching the NFL for a long time and it was too easy predicting the Pats having a winning record in 2025. Here's some of my receipts:


I have better things to do with my time and don't need to read anyone's analysis to validate my own opinion. If I do read it, it's for curiosity as to what others think.

I said it in 2025 and I'll say it again, this division belongs to the Pats now. Buffalo is cooked. They just fired their HC for an OC that is not well liked by fans and a 1st time HC. Their defense continually is getting worse while the Pats have 8 of 11 starters returning on defense and one upgrade in the secondary (Byard). The only way Buffalo takes the AFCE is by default with Patriots injuries. If anyone says with a straight face that the Bills roster is superior than the Pats, then they are either delusional or they are 12 years old.
fair enough. I don't believe that the patriots are the #14th best team in the NFL. I also don't believe that they are 3rd behind on LAR and SEA, as you seem to think. I believe that the final line on wins last year was 8.5, that is 50-50 with regard to a winning record. Half the betting money expected us to have a winning record. You certainly were not the only one. Many, many here thought that the line was resonable and predicted 9-10 win and a relatively low likelihood fo making the playoffs.

I get it . Your opinions are your own and you are not influenced if every bettor and media expert believes that the patriots are outisde of the top 5.

I also have been watching football since before there was an AFL. I have a different approach. I consider the possibility of adjusting my opinion if the vast, vast majority have different views, expecially when it is just possible that they have more expertise and experience than I do at evaluating players.

In the end. almost all have us in the playoffs. How we do in the playoffs is a crapshoot. All the team can do is do what they can to get another player or two, and coach with the intent of getting to the playoffs relatively healthy. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen.
 
No, anyone that actually watches the NFL. It's a bad ranking - like really bad. Total amateur hour.

Ranking a team 14th in the NFL after making the Super Bowl and their young QB finishing one vote shy of the MVP is flat out trolling. This is very basic analysis.

Good, then take the odds. I've been watching the NFL for a long time and it was too easy predicting the Pats having a winning record in 2025. Here's some of my receipts:


I have better things to do with my time and don't need to read anyone's analysis to validate my own opinion. If I do read it, it's for curiosity as to what others think.

I said it in 2025 and I'll say it again, this division belongs to the Pats now. Buffalo is cooked. They just fired their HC for an OC that is not well liked by fans and a 1st time HC. Their defense continually is getting worse while the Pats have 8 of 11 starters returning on defense and one upgrade in the secondary (Byard). The only way Buffalo takes the AFCE is by default with Patriots injuries. If anyone says with a straight face that the Bills roster is superior than the Pats, then they are either delusional or they are 12 years old.
We are patriot fans. We have our biases, as we should. Most here refuse to consider the possibility that BUF and BAL might have better teams than we do. or that KC might if Mahomes is healthy, or that the LAC are a ready for prime time. Of course, we discount DEN, even with a healthy QB. I do NOT think that ALL this is the case. However, it is just possible that one or two are indeed better than we are. Of course, that doesn't mean that we aren't in the mix to go deep into the playoffs.
 
fair enough. I don't believe that the patriots are the #14th best team in the NFL. I also don't believe that they are 3rd behind on LAR and SEA, as you seem to think. I believe that the final line on wins last year was 8.5, that is 50-50 with regard to a winning record. Half the betting money expected us to have a winning record. You certainly were not the only one. Many, many here thought that the line was resonable and predicted 9-10 win and a relatively low likelihood fo making the playoffs.

I get it . Your opinions are your own and you are not influenced if every bettor and media expert believes that the patriots are outisde of the top 5.

I also have been watching football since before there was an AFL. I have a different approach. I consider the possibility of adjusting my opinion if the vast, vast majority have different views, expecially when it is just possible that they have more expertise and experience than I do at evaluating players.

In the end. almost all have us in the playoffs. How we do in the playoffs is a crapshoot. All the team can do is do what they can to get another player or two, and coach with the intent of getting to the playoffs relatively healthy. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen.
We are patriot fans. We have our biases, as we should. Most here refuse to consider the possibility that BUF and BAL might have better teams than we do. or that KC might if Mahomes is healthy, or that the LAC are a ready for prime time. Of course, we discount DEN, even with a healthy QB. I do NOT think that ALL this is the case. However, it is just possible that one or two are indeed better than we are. Of course, that doesn't mean that we aren't in the mix to go deep into the playoffs.
Who in the AFC is better than the Pats? Denver is the only team that has a really strong roster and could seriously challenge them. However, I do see Nix's ankle being an issue. If you believe there are other teams better than the Pats, you'll have to explain why? That is going to be a serious challenge.

Some posters here throw a fit when I'm critical of the Pats or a certain player - so it's pretty well known I'm one of the last people here with a Patriots bias. I call it as I see it. I could be wrong after the season, but the Pats are a top 5 team on paper at worst and in the top 2 with Denver in the AFC. The rest of the AFC is a the next tier below.
 
We are patriot fans. We have our biases, as we should. Most here refuse to consider the possibility that BUF and BAL might have better teams than we do. or that KC might if Mahomes is healthy, or that the LAC are a ready for prime time. Of course, we discount DEN, even with a healthy QB. I do NOT think that ALL this is the case. However, it is just possible that one or two are indeed better than we are. Of course, that doesn't mean that we aren't in the mix to go deep into the playoffs.
I'm filing you under "Stuck in 2022"
The Chiefs were 6-9 with Mahomes as a starter last year, and they've gotten worse in the offseason.
 
We are patriot fans. We have our biases, as we should. Most here refuse to consider the possibility that BUF and BAL might have better teams than we do. or that KC might if Mahomes is healthy, or that the LAC are a ready for prime time. Of course, we discount DEN, even with a healthy QB. I do NOT think that ALL this is the case. However, it is just possible that one or two are indeed better than we are. Of course, that doesn't mean that we aren't in the mix to go deep into the playoffs.
I think what puts the Patriots over the top is coaching.

Vrabel infects his staff and his players with intensity and focus and awareness to do what it takes to win.

I don't see this in other teams.
 
I'm filing you under "Stuck in 2022"
The Chiefs were 6-9 with Mahomes as a starter last year, and they've gotten worse in the offseason.
Yep. They can’t count on their best receiver, Kelce is near the end although he will still contribute, and the rest of his skills guys aren’t that good. I expect they’ll be in the playoff race, but I don’t see them as anything close to what they were 2-3 years ago.
 
We are patriot fans. We have our biases, as we should. Most here refuse to consider the possibility that BUF and BAL might have better teams than we do. or that KC might if Mahomes is healthy, or that the LAC are a ready for prime time. Of course, we discount DEN, even with a healthy QB. I do NOT think that ALL this is the case. However, it is just possible that one or two are indeed better than we are. Of course, that doesn't mean that we aren't in the mix to go deep into the playoffs.
The Bills and Ravens both have good, not great, teams. Could they beat the Pats? Sure, in a one-game situation. But overall, I don’t see either one as clearly better than the Pats, at best. Jackson’s injuries are piling up. The Bills are going to largely be the same in my mind, considering who they hired. Which means they’ll once again lose their share of games. Both teams are playoff contenders of course. But better than the Pats? Yeah, no. Denver and Cincy (maybe) are closer to legit AFC championship contenders.
 
No, anyone that actually watches the NFL. It's a bad ranking - like really bad. Total amateur hour.

Ranking a team 14th in the NFL after making the Super Bowl and their young QB finishing one vote shy of the MVP is flat out trolling. This is very basic analysis.

Good, then take the odds. I've been watching the NFL for a long time and it was too easy predicting the Pats having a winning record in 2025. Here's some of my receipts:


I have better things to do with my time and don't need to read anyone's analysis to validate my own opinion. If I do read it, it's for curiosity as to what others think.

I said it in 2025 and I'll say it again, this division belongs to the Pats now. Buffalo is cooked. They just fired their HC for an OC that is not well liked by fans and a 1st time HC. Their defense continually is getting worse while the Pats have 8 of 11 starters returning on defense and one upgrade in the secondary (Byard). The only way Buffalo takes the AFCE is by default with Patriots injuries. If anyone says with a straight face that the Bills roster is superior than the Pats, then they are either delusional or they are 12 years old.
I choose not to be a Negative Nancy. Optimism is fine. We were in the Super Bowl last year and many think that means that we are the best in the AFC until proved otherwise. OK.

I think that we are a playoff team and could compete deep in the playoffs. I have no interest in comparing us to other teams. If folks wish to disagree with almost everyone except for message board patriots fans, go for it.
 
We are patriot fans. We have our biases, as we should. Most here refuse to consider the possibility that BUF and BAL might have better teams than we do. or that KC might if Mahomes is healthy, or that the LAC are a ready for prime time. Of course, we discount DEN, even with a healthy QB. I do NOT think that ALL this is the case. However, it is just possible that one or two are indeed better than we are. Of course, that doesn't mean that we aren't in the mix to go deep into the playoffs.
Not for nothing, but I argued with you the Pats were better than the Bills last year the week before they first played and you scoffed at it. You have a crush on Josh Allen and it clouds your vision.

And not for nothing, but I got +4800 odds the Pats would win the AFC last July from the same Vegas oddsmakers you claim are infallible now.

I haven’t done a full breakdown of all 32 teams yet, so I can’t definitively say where the Pats rank, but I doubt the reporter who wrote that list had either and saying the Bills rose to the top three while the Pats dropped to middle of the league seems far fetched.
 
You have a crush on Josh Allen and it clouds your vision.

Pats have a better roster imo, however it's comments like this that are completely biased.
I'm not sure how recognizing Allen is a great player are "crushing".
Go outside of the confines of a Pats forum, and Allen is widely recognized as the best or at worst, 2nd best QB in the NFL.
So who's right, you and the other Pats fans that think he's washed, or the mass media and NFL analysts that think he's the best QB in the league?
Fearing an opposing QB is the ultimate sign of respect. I know I don't want Allen with the ball in his hand with 2:00 left in the game and us up 6 or less.
Now the lazy argument is to point his team's lack of playoff success.
Yes he turned the ball over far too much in his early years, and yes his playoff game against Denver was filled with bonehead plays, but also some great ones and he lead his team to 30 points.
Prior to that Denver game his playoff stats were fantastic the past few years.
If you looked at Maye's 2025 playoff stats in a vacuum they were quite bad, but yet we have posters who have already deemed him the best QB in the NFL, which he may be in the future, but he most certainly isn't there yet.
So the masses have Allen rated as the better QB, and the Bills as a better team (largely because of Allen despite their roster's shortcomings).
So who's really "crushing", the folks that recognize how good Allen is, or the ones who've crowned him washed, and placed Maye above him?
 
Pats have a better roster imo, however it's comments like this that are completely biased.
I'm not sure how recognizing Allen is a great player are "crushing".
Go outside of the confines of a Pats forum, and Allen is widely recognized as the best or at worst, 2nd best QB in the NFL.
So who's right, you and the other Pats fans that think he's washed, or the mass media and NFL analysts that think he's the best QB in the league?
Fearing an opposing QB is the ultimate sign of respect. I know I don't want Allen with the ball in his hand with 2:00 left in the game and us up 6 or less.
Now the lazy argument is to point his team's lack of playoff success.
Yes he turned the ball over far too much in his early years, and yes his playoff game against Denver was filled with bonehead plays, but also some great ones and he lead his team to 30 points.
Prior to that Denver game his playoff stats were fantastic the past few years.
If you looked at Maye's 2025 playoff stats in a vacuum they were quite bad, but yet we have posters who have already deemed him the best QB in the NFL, which he may be in the future, but he most certainly isn't there yet.
So the masses have Allen rated as the better QB, and the Bills as a better team (largely because of Allen despite their roster's shortcomings).
So who's really "crushing", the folks that recognize how good Allen is, or the ones who've crowned him washed, and placed Maye above him?
There’s an overwhelmingly large section of fans who place entirely too much emphasis on QB’s… they’ve been called “QB fanboys,” by me anyway.

QB’s are beholden to the line, TE’s and blockers around them… along with the weapons, defense, special teams and coordinator calling the game. Substantially more than fanboys recognize or acknowledge.

You immediately went to assuming I thought Drake Maye was better than Josh Allen and that is what mattered most…. so what am I supposed to glean from that?

The difference between Drake and Allen was negligible, the difference between Brady and Peyton was negligible… the difference between teams is what determined who won or lost. Team matters much more than who the QB was in a vacuum. QB’s are a part of team, not apart from team.

For a large part of last season the Bills defense stunk, they played themselves into a middling rank… but the overall team wasn’t good… they were one sided. The Patriots were a better team, if they didn’t have a huge letdown in the second matchup the Pats would have swept them easily.

QB’s are overrated….
 
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There’s an overwhelmingly large section of fans who place entirely too much emphasis on QB’s… they’ve been called “QB fanboys,” by me anyway.

QB’s are beholden to the line, TE’s and blockers around them… along with the weapons and coordinator calling the game. Substantially more than fanboys recognize or acknowledge.

You immediately went to assuming I thought Drake Maye was better than Josh Allen and that is what mattered most…. so what am I supposed to glean from that?

The difference between Drake and Allen was negligible, the difference between Brady and Peyton was negligible… the difference between teams is what determined who won or lost. Team matters much more than who the QB was in a vacuum. QB’s are a part of team, not apart from team.

For a large part of last season the Bills defense stunk, they played themselves into a middling rank… but the team wasn’t good. The Patriots were a better team, if they didn’t have a huge letdown in the second matchup the Pats would have swept them easily.

QB’s are overrated….
I never said you thought Maye was better. But I know of at least 3 posters that have openly called Maye the best QB in the league. 2 of them I agree with on many things and I highly value as posters, the 3rd's opinion....well let's just say I don't put a shred of credibility in.

And QB's are most definitely not overrated.
Yes you can win a SB with a great team and a decent QB, but more often than not it's a great QB with a decent roster that hoist the Lombardi.

Don't play the "if" game, leave that to Bills fans.

Allen went off in the second matchup and lead his team to victory....because he is great QB who can put the team on his back.

The Bills won, we lost, there are no "ifs".
 
I never said you thought Maye was better. But I know of at least 3 posters that have openly called Maye the best QB in the league. 2 of them I agree with on many things and I highly value as posters, the 3rd's opinion....well let's just say I don't put a shred of credibility in.
Your entire post was presumption that I thought Drake was better than Josh. Read your post again.
And QB's are most definitely not overrated.
Sure they are, they make up roughly 15-20% of the game and fanboys attribute wins/losses roughly 90% on who the QB was.
Yes you can win a SB with a great team and a decent QB, but more often than not it's a great QB with a decent roster that hoist the Lombardi.
No, this is where you’re lost. Most SB wins come from great teams with great QB’s because great teams generally have great team builders who find great players in all three phases and in all position groups.

Fanboys just attribute all of that to magical QB’s.
Don't play the "if" game, leave that to Bills fans.

Allen went off in the second matchup and lead his team to victory....because he is great QB who can put the team on his back.

The Bills won, we lost, there are no "ifs".
The Patriots let off the gas, and that loss propelled them into the playoffs all the way to the SB… where the Patriots D not Drake Maye carried the majority of the load in the playoffs. This let down also occurred when the Pats D was dealing with key injuries.

We have a thread adjacent to this one where fans are discussing Patrick Mahomes and how he “fell off,” which is laughable because many of these are fanboys who were telling us years ago Mahomes was going to surpass Brady as the GOAT.

Mahomes didn’t get worse, Allen didn’t get worse, the same way Brady didn’t get worse after they made him the highest paid player in the NFL and they went a decade without winning a Super Bowl. The teams around these QB’s got worse.

It’s a team sport, the Patriots were a better team than the Bills in 2025. Better because the Patriots D when healthy was elite… it had nothing to do with Drake versus Allen.
 
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I feel like I'm in the twilight zone with the Pats at #14 while the Bills are at #2. I have no idea what these people are looking at with the other teams ranked where they are ahead of NE.

This ranking wasn't someone ranking the teams this way is all based on an ESPN-invented formula FPI.
https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123048/a-guide-to-nfl-fpi

"The main component of preseason FPI is Vegas expectations". Lol
 
Yep. They can’t count on their best receiver, Kelce is near the end although he will still contribute, and the rest of his skills guys aren’t that good. I expect they’ll be in the playoff race, but I don’t see them as anything close to what they were 2-3 years ago.
Lots of talk about their draft solving all their problems on defense (and there were many)... but none of those guys have proven anything yet.
 
I wonder if there is any NFL team that has risen from the depths to serious competitiveness as many times and as quickly as the Patriots.

The Patriots Haters/Denigrators Jihad (which includes a large portion of their own fan base, at least as far as last century is concerned) had, indeed, many losses and losing seasons to back up their fantasy, but the number and significance of the wins offsets them overwhelmingly. It's right there in the record book.

As far as how it happened, here's a list to help get it:

Holovak-Parilli
Fairbanks-Plunkett/Grogan
Berry-Grogan/Flutie
Parcells-Bledsoe
Belichick-Brady
Vrabel-Maye

That's six in 65 years, with, I think, more COY than anybody else.

We have to give all these coaches their due - as well as the 3 different owners who hired them.
Great post about how many times over our history the Pats have gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in record time. Then back to the outhouse. In each decade we've been both among the worst and among the best, except for the insane run from 2001 to 2019 where we stayed among the best. The 4-13 teams of 2023 and 2024 teams were a necessary and familiar part of that cycle. We were very competitive to ring-worthy in the early & mid 60's, mid-70's, mid-80's, mid-90's, all of the '00's and 10's, and now the mid 20's. We also had some of the worst teams in history in the late 60's/early 70's, early 80's, early 90's, and early 2020's. We're pretty lucky as football fans.
 
I wonder about Denver. They had a historic level of close game wins last season. Typically teams that win consistently with one score or less wins like Denver did in 2025 typically take a big step back the next year.
I’ve been saying this for months. Last year at this time I said KC would take a step back because of all their incredibly close/lucky wins from 2024. I predicted the law of averages would catch up to them and sure enough, it did.

This year is Denver’s turn.
 
Unless I missed the story where Tyquan Thornton suddenly developed Jerry Rice's work habits and Randy Moss's route running... the Chiefs' receivers have regressed in quality since Mahomes' heyday.

But this reminds me of how some people viewed Belichick when it comes to talking about Mahomes. Look, Mahomes was flat out a nightmare in his prime. Nobody's taking that away from him. But like every player, every coach, every human that has ever existed, there comes a time when they decline. For guys that rely on their legs to give their receivers bigger windows by creating uncertainty, the physical decline can be offset by outstanding accuracy and heavy study. Elway, Young, even Montana (to an extent) had these skills. Right now, we're seeing that Mahomes is still very good with his athleticism diminishing, but he doesn't have that skillset to compensate for the loss. Maybe he recovers somehow, but I see a Russell Wilson future ahead for Mahomes and the Chiefs. Because I think they're going to have to eat a huge cap loss here in the relatively near future.
 
TRANSCRIPT: Mike Vrabel Press Conference 6/11
MORSE: Day 2 of Patriots Mini-Camp
TRANSCRIPT: Caleb Lomu Media Interview 6/10
TRANSCRIPT: Ashton Grant Press Conference 6/10
TRANSCRIPT: Drake Maye Press Conference 6/10
TRANSCRIPT: Josh McDaniels Press Conference 6/10
Vrabel on Stefon Diggs: ‘I would never say no’ to a Patriots return
TRANSCRIPT: Mike Vrabel Press Conference 6/10
Vrabel Details Drake Maye’s Critical Growth Areas for Year Three
MORSE: Day One of Patriots Mini-Camp and Morse’s Morsels
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