Breer: Vrabel says the Pats will approach the offseason getting younger, cheaper, & better options

[DaBruinz]

Breer was on 98.5 today saying that Vrabel told him that they will approach free agency getting younger, cheaper, and better players. Not that the Pats will be cheap in free agency or not aggressive. In fact, Breer thought the Pats could be aggressive in free agency. But he wants to replace older player with young players that might be cheaper in the short run like say replacing Henry, who has a high cap hit this year, with a younger option like maybe Kyle Pitts who might be cheaper in the short run but is younger and potentially better. Breer did use Henry as an example, but didn't state a potential replacement. I used Pitts as an example.

From the sounds of it, players like Moses, Diggs, Henry, Hooper, Hollins, Bradbury could be targets for younger upgrades.

What we won't see is what the Commanders did last year where they went all in to get older players who could help them win right now, but won't help in the future while mortgaging draft picks. Again, I don't know if that means that the Pats won't make trades, but it is doubtful they will trade for a guy who only has a couple of years left of production or potentially requiring too much trade capital.

Pitts is not going to be cheaper than Henry.. Pitts is looking to get paid. Henry's contract was 9M/per. Pitts was already making 8.2M AAV. My guess is that Pitts is going to try and get to the George Kittle level with his contract.


Most would agree with the following need to be addressed.
- Improve LG (Wallace? sign a UFA)
- Improve OC (Wilson? Sign a UFA?)
- Develop RT (Bryant? Draft Pick)
- 1-2 Edge Players (depends on Landry/Chaisson)
- 4 Down LB who can cover TEs/RBs.
- Free Safety (Depends on if Hawkins is re-signed)
- Improve FB (Brock Lampe? A new college UDFA FB?)
- Improve TE Depth behind Henry
- Improve CB Depth behind Gonzo, Davis, M. Jones. (Cor'Dale Flott? Roger McCreary? Draft Pick?)

Landry's contract has the most guaranteed salary at 11M. So, it's unlikely that the Pats will replace him unless he retires and there is some clause about how the money is handled. (I'm trying to find out how guaranteed salary would be handled in that situation).

Moses' has 4.5M of his 6.5M guaranteed. He also has 850K in per game bonuses that he could earn.. I mentioned back in December I thought that Moses could retire. That's still a possibility.

I don't think Diggs is going anywhere unless the legal issues become a thing.

I mentioned that I didn't expect Hooper to be back. I have to wonder if Daniel Bellinger is on their list to add.. He'd be a good #2/#3 TE. A guy who could block or be a receiver. Cowden will definitely know if he's a fit and can improve the TE position..

 

[DaBruinz]

Cuts and trades I would be considering:

- Cutting Diggs to save a lot of cash. They can entertain a new contract at a lower salary, though he may wish to test the market first.

Absolutely not.

- Trading Boutte. While he had some flashes, he also faded down the stretch and I don't think I'm sold on him at this point. He is due for an extension soon.

I don't believe he faded at all.

If they are looking for a new top-end WR (I assume they are) then there will be fewer snaps to go around anyway, especially if they want to get Williams more involved, too - and I don't think Hollins is going anywhere, so Boutte may end up being redundant.
- Cutting Henry and replacing him with a younger, better player in free agency.

Who, exactly, is better?

- Cutting Moses and replacing him with a younger, better player in free agency.

There isn't one.

- Cutting Dobbs and replacing him with DeVito, and drafting a kid late to be the emergency 3rd.

Ok

- Cutting Baringer and replacing him with a younger, (hopefully) better player via a draft pick.

Why would you cut Baringer Because of one bad punt?

- Trading Christian Barmore to save some cap (~$7M) and get out of some future guarantees. He will net decent comp. He has not always gotten with the program, and his effort is inconsistent. Good player, but is the juice worth the squeeze? Vrabel may prefer to save the money and replace him with someone like Durden and a rotation of other guys while also getting a decent pick back. (Side note: I could see a deal where the Pats trade Barmore for AJ Brown - seems like the kind of player Philly likes.)

I don't believe you'll get proper comp for Barmore. I like Durden, but he's not Barmore. Not even close.

 

[DaBruinz]

He likes Hawkins as a special teamer, and played better than the two overpaid old guys we had back there.

That doesn't make him 'one of the best safeties in the league."

No. What makes Hawkins one of the better safeties in the league is:
- 11 pressures - (Tied for 9th overall)
- 4 interceptions (tied for 4th overall)


The cons on Hawkins are:
10 missed tackles ( tied for 22nd)
68.8 Receiving percentage (33rd)
3 TDs allowed (tied for 31st)
2 PBUs (tied for 42nd)

 

[DaBruinz]

Hawkins would need replaced. It’s pretty empty past Woodson.

I disagree. Dell Pettus has been solid when called upon. Not sure he's a full time starter at safety, but he's not been the weak link typically.

 

[VrabelJr]

The offense in general has a decision to make on the importance of TE. We’re neither good at catching or blocking currently. If we’re going to pay up we should be good at both. If we’re not going to pay we should go cheap and get a great blocker who can also give us 200-300 yards.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Hunter Henry was 7th in TE receiving yards- Pitts was 2. The top 15: McBride, Pitts, j. Johnson, Kelce, Warren, Schulz, Henry, Fannin, Loveland, Bowers, Gadsen, Ferguson, Kittle, Otton, Goefert,

Pitts is going to be a top 3 TE in pay. No doubt. There is nor FA option that is all three of younger/better/cheaper than Henry. You could draft one to replace Hooper and hope he is better than Henry for 2027. You can get younger and cheaper in FA, but not better. Thinking otherwise is standard PatsFans offseason delusions about salaries.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yo Peeps!
Sup with Miguel? I miss his Patscap info. Gone from here & gone from X. Hope he just retired from cap tracking.

He went over to Blue Sky. If you @Miguel, he should get notification that someone mentioned him.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

To add context:
TJ Hockenson makes over 20 M.
Dawson Knox makes over 17M
Dalton Schulz makes just under 16M.
For goodness sake, Josh Oliver and Colby Parkinson make over 9 Million.


On what planet is Pitts taking less than Knox or Schulz? What up and coming TE is going to take less than Josh Oliver?

 

[DaBruinz]

Hunter Henry was 7th in TE receiving yards- Pitts was 2. The top 15: McBride, Pitts, j. Johnson, Kelce, Warren, Schulz, Henry, Fannin, Loveland, Bowers, Gadsen, Ferguson, Kittle, Otton, Goefert,

Pitts is going to be a top 3 TE in pay. No doubt. There is nor FA option that is all three of younger/better/cheaper than Henry. You could draft one to replace Hooper and hope he is better than Henry for 2027. You can get younger and cheaper in FA, but not better. Thinking otherwise is standard PatsFans offseason delusions about salaries.

Henry was asked to block on approx 43.6% of his snaps. That's run blocking (398) and pass blocking (67) combined.
Cade Otten was asked to block on approx 43.1% of his snaps. That's run blocking (369) and pass blocking (59) combined.

Daniel Bellinger was asked to block on approx 59.7% of his snaps (281 Run Blocking / 51 pass blocking).

If the Pats wanted to, they could cut Henry outright, Sign Otton to replace Henry, sign Bellinger to replace Hooper, add a TE in the draft and have Bellinger, Dippre, Draftee fight for the 2nd-4th TE spots.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Henry was asked to block on approx 43.6% of his snaps. That's run blocking (398) and pass blocking (67) combined.
Cade Otten was asked to block on approx 43.1% of his snaps. That's run blocking (369) and pass blocking (59) combined.

Daniel Bellinger was asked to block on approx 59.7% of his snaps (281 Run Blocking / 51 pass blocking).

If the Pats wanted to, they could cut Henry outright, Sign Otton to replace Henry, sign Bellinger to replace Hooper, add a TE in the draft and have Bellinger, Dippre, Draftee fight for the 2nd-4th TE spots.

You could do that for sure. But, I don’t think Otton is better. I also think once you factor in Henry’s 2.5 million dollar cap hit and Otton likely wanting at least Josh Oliver/Colby Parkinson money, I don’t see him much cheaper.
Personally, I would say he is younger, slightly worse, and maybe, but not definitely slightly cheaper.

 

[DaBruinz]

To add context:
TJ Hockenson makes over 20 M.
Dawson Knox makes over 17M
Dalton Schulz makes just under 16M.
For goodness sake, Josh Oliver and Colby Parkinson make over 9 Million.


On what planet is Pitts taking less than Knox or Schulz? What up and coming TE is going to take less than Josh Oliver?

Umm. The AAVs are as follows:
Hockenson - 16.5M
Knox - 9.83M
Schultz - 12M
Oliver - 7.75M
Parkinson - 7.5M

2026 CASH:
Hockenson 16M
Knox - 12M
Schultz - 11.5M
Oliver - 7M
Parkinson - 7M

You're overall point still stands. Pitts is not going to take less than the 9

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Umm. The AAVs are as follows:
Hockenson - 16.5M
Knox - 9.83M
Schultz - 12M
Oliver - 7.75M
Parkinson - 7.5M

2026 CASH:
Hockenson 16M
Knox - 12M
Schultz - 11.5M
Oliver - 7M
Parkinson - 7M

You're overall point still stands. Pitts is not going to take less than the 9

My salaries are the current cap hits for 2026- which is different from AAV for sure. I was also using
This spotrac link
Which may or may not be reliable. I haven’t vetted beyond seeing Gemini AI results and then following up to make sure it based on a legitimate link.

 

[DaBruinz]

You could do that for sure. But, I don’t think Otton is better. I also think once you factor in Henry’s 2.5 million dollar cap hit and Otton likely wanting at least Josh Oliver/Colby Parkinson money, I don’t see him much cheaper.
Personally, I would say he is younger, slightly worse, and maybe, but not definitely slightly cheaper.

Otton turns 27 in April. Henry turns 32 in December.
I can guarantee you that Otton's hit this year would be less than Henry's 11.75M Cap hit (9.25M if cut).

The Pats could give Otton a 12.5M AAV / 4yr deal with 12M signing bonus and the first year's number would be under $8M including the 2.5M dead cap from Henry.

 

[DaBruinz]

My salaries are the current cap hits for 2026- which is different from AAV for sure. I was also using
This spotrac link
Which may or may not be reliable. I haven’t vetted beyond seeing Gemini AI results and then following up to make sure it based on a legitimate link.

Cap hit is not salary. So saying that is what they are "making" is factually incorrect. Considering how the Cap number can be manipulated, it's really not the correct number to be using.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I don’t disagree with any of that- except I don’t think Otton is clearly better. He could be better, but some TE’s struggle to pick up McD’s system. So, he clearly could be worse. I would say he is about as likely to be worse than better.

I think he is most likely to be similar, except worse in the red zone and he’s not close friends with Drake Maye. But he is definitely cheaper/younger and reasonably similar. That definitely could be enough for the Patriots to make that move.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

On the Henry/Pitts salary comparison... Pitts is sure to be more expensive overall contract wise, but I'd be surprised if Pitts cap number for next year is as high as the $9.25M cap space we'd gain from cutting Henry. That goes for anywhere he signs, excluding the franchise tag obviously. That cap hit would balloon in 2027, but we're in good shape.

We're currently about $100M below the cap for 2027 and then we have tons of potentially cuttable salary... Landry would obviously be cut next year to save $14.5M. Even if Diggs is kept this year, at his age feels like he'd be a cut candidate next year to save $22.5M. Spillane could be cut to save $10M and feels like he wouldn't be worth keeping next year over that much cap space IMO. Barmore could be cut to save $16.4M and feels like if he's back he's either going to play his way into a new deal that would extend him and lower the cap hit or he'll be a problem off the field/in the locker room and be cut next year. Moses could be cut to save $9M which probably makes sense at the age he'll be. Milton Williams has a $21M salary they could restructure next year. Carlton Davis could be cut to sabe $16.5M if they found a CB in this year's draft they think could start.

A Gonzo extension/5th year option would eat into a chunk of that but they have TONS of room with how little money is on the books to start and how many cut candidates there are even in that money. I think they can, if they want to, sign a number of players this offseason where the cap hit is lower in year 1 and goes up in year 2.

Not specifically saying cut Henry and sign Pitts. Just speaking on the idea of how they can make a guy who's more expensive overall cheaper for this year based on how they structure.

 

[mgteich]

To add context:
TJ Hockenson makes over 20 M.
Dawson Knox makes over 17M
Dalton Schulz makes just under 16M.
For goodness sake, Josh Oliver and Colby Parkinson make over 9 Million.


On what planet is Pitts taking less than Knox or Schulz? What up and coming TE is going to take less than Josh Oliver?

on Planet Patfans where message board posters dictate what a player should sign for.

 

[Jim Plunkett]

Younger, cheaper. Simply means weaker

 

[Huckleberry1]

Well he's, what, 5 years younger than Hooper?
The age is at play here.
I'm with you though in terms of how much money he'd cost.

If they want to give him Hooper's money that's fine, if he wants more than that no way.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Younger, cheaper. Simply means weaker

You think trading Duggars and replacing him with Woodson weakened them?