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Breer: Vrabel says the Pats will approach the offseason getting younger, cheaper, & better options

If I really choose to take Breer’s analysis and Vrabel’s comments seriously: off the ball LB may be a place to get younger and better.


Devin Lloyd, Nakobe Dean, Leo Chenal and Justin Strnad stick out to me as younger options at the position. Maybe even a Devin Bush, though his previous production before last year worries me.
 
This is definitely not saying we already have to move off Spillane. I hope we don’t and he can stay healthy. But what we played beside him always seems like patchwork.
 
I believe that the guys who are here the veterans will all be given ample opportunities to remain. Diggs isn't going anywhere IMO.. his value goes beyond the field.. Tavai... I believe could move on unless he remains on a veteran minimum.. same with Hooper... Gibbens..

Hollins is under contract and I can even see them giving him an extra year..

Bradbury is under contract as well and I can see them signing a C to compete with him in camp.

With 40 plus million in cap space.. Vrabel should start with extending Gonzo in my opinion..
I feel inclined for them to not just cut bait with guys only because they’re older in age if they showed no signs of slowing down. It’s why I hope we keep a Mack Hollins, who seems ageless.
 
I feel inclined for them to not just cut bait with guys only because they’re older in age if they showed no signs of slowing down. It’s why I hope we keep a Mack Hollins, who seems ageless.
Agreed. I even think Hollins not only remains but gets an extra year at least.. I really think he's another culture carrying guy.. he's also a specimen physically..

My thinking is..

Resign Chaisson, Hawkins, Tonga I'm thinking Chaisson will be able 10-12 million annually.. Hawkins 3 yr 20 million seems realistically..

Try to sign Nakobe Dean LB & K. Pitts TE and or Lindabaum C in FA..

Trade for AJ Brown wich seems imminent.. hearing Roseman is seeking a 2nd or 3rd rounder at least..

Try to sign Mafe DE or Hendrickson at edge or shoot for Phillips..

Guys like Gibbens, Tavai and Hooper could be post draft or late FA signings if they don't sign elsewhere..

There will also be lots of opportunities to add from veteran Cap casualties as well..
 
This is definitely not saying we already have to move off Spillane. I hope we don’t and he can stay healthy. But what we played beside him always seems like patchwork.
true for many posters.

Others agree with Vrabel that we are fine at ILB with Spillane and Ellis as starters and Gibbens as the backup. (and yes, Tavai as the #4)
 
Why not Otton? Goes back to what I thought was the "clunkiness" of Henry/Hooper last year. Neither of them were "move" TEs and neither is Otton. All 3 of those guys belong as in-line guys and that just makes for a bit of a clunky offense IMO because you get duplicate route trees. And in the case of Henry/Hooper last year, both are still weaker blockers so you weren't even benefiting there.

Now that you mention Otton though, I am very intrigued. Not instead of Likely in my plan, but as a younger replacement for Henry. Cut Henry to have $9.25M and sign Otton for a cap hit lower than that. Gives you a better blocker for that in-line/Y s TE spot and a younger player too. On top of the Diggs thing and my Pierce/Likely ideas, you could cut Diggs/Henry to save about $30M of cap and have Pierce/Otton/Likely for probably less than that cap space.

Why not Pitts? it was primarily about cost and I kind of think they'll tag him anyway. Also, since I'm cutting Diggs to go with Pierce (downfield guy) at the X and Boutte at the Z (more of a downfield/intermediate route tree than underneath), the move TE is going to run a lot of underneath routes. In his whole career, Pitts has broken 9 tackles (1 every 31.6 receptions) and averages 4.4 YAC per reception. His average depth of target is 10.1 yards downfield. Likely has broken 15 tackles (1 every 9.0 receptions) and averages 5.5 YAC per reception. His average depth of target is 7.2 yards downfield. And then a guy like Henry (or Otton now since I liked that idea), you're talking guys who are more down the seam types. So just in building a fully complimentary route tree of skill sets, I think Likely fills in the gaps well.

Another thing I like about Likely is that he's played in 2 TE sets before. I think there's be a lot of familiarity for him coming over into the role we have him. You're right that he's a weaker blocker, but based on how I'm leaving cap space for other spots we can improve the OL. I also think I'm projecting his role as kind of a big slot as much of a move TE so there's some wiggle room for a weaker blocker there. It's certainly a weakness with him and why I'm not saying to write him a blank check, but most FAs you sign have some warts otherwise they wouldn't be FAs to begin with.

Overall though with the Otton idea, I love what our offense would be if it was Pierce at X, Boutte at Z, Otton at Y, Likely as the slot/move TE as the primary formation. Try to find a real fullback for when you want to go heavier. I think Hollins/KWilliams/Douglas/Chism give you different flavors of a 3rd receiver when you want to go to those type of formations. Draft supposedly has some good TE options so maybe you can find a good third one there to eventually replace one of Likely/Otton in the third/4th year of their deals once the cap hits get too heavy to sustain as is the case with most contracts. And all of this would come from cap space form cutting Diggs/Henry so it doesn't take away from our ability to add 2 OL starters and a starting DE along with retaining or replacing guys like Hawkins/Chaisson. And I think at the skill positions we get younger and better or at least better-fitting. I think all the pieces here work well together.
I think you are greatly overvaluing Likely. Why will the Ravens let Likely go? Because he is soft. Vrabel and crew will not sign Likely because soft guys are great all season (put up great stats) and disappear in the playoffs when the refs swallow their whistles.
 
Cut Diggs/Henry to save $30.05M. Sign WR Alec Pierce, TE Isaiah Likely and TE Cade Otton with deals structured so cap space is neutral. I've outlined it in other posts but I think this gives us a scheme diverse and varied skill set grouping that is mostly all young players.

Cut Bradbury to save $5.7M. Sign Connor McGovern to a deal with a year 1 cap hit neutral to that. It's just an obvious upgrade and a younger player too. He also has guard experience so if/when Jared Wilson winds up at center he can slide over.

Cut Dobbs to save $3.7M (just bring DeVito back for the min as a backup). Cut Anfernee Jennings to save another $3.9M. With the $7.6M saved there, re-sign Chaisson with a deal structured so the year 1 cap hit is about that.

All of that should be mostly cap neutral, give or take. So we still have the $41.01M of cap space we're starting with per OverTheCap. Restructure Milton Williams to free up $13.39M and bring us up to about $55M. That's what you have to start spending on further additions. The most obvious positions to address are LG, DE and retaining or replacing Hawkins at S.

We need a new starting LG. Joel Bitionio or Isaac Seumalo are older options. David Edwards is a bit younger option. IDK who, but they need a legit starter here that Campbell can lean on. Along with the McGovern signing above, that would be 2 interior OL upgrades.

At DE, they should go for a top guy. A bonafide starter. Hendrickson on a short term deal or maybe Phillips or Odafe on a bigger long-term commitment. Absolutely need a splash signing here - someone who is a bonafide starter.

At S, probably easiest to just bring Hawkins back but if there's a guy they really like they can upgrade. SEA's Coby Bryant, KC's Bryan Cook, CHI's Jaquan Brisker, CHI's Kevin Byard, LAR's Kamren Curl, AZ's Jalen Thompson, CHI's CJ Gardner-Johnson, IND's Nick Cross, PHI's Reed Blankenship, BAL's Alohi Gilman are all names I see mentioned on top FA lists. Between bringing Hawkins back or one of them they should be able to fine someone next to Woodson.

Last signing I'd make in addition to those 3 need areas is LB Quay Walker. Kind of a "splurge" signing of sorts. I just like the fit. He's been a MIKE in GB but some project him better as a WILL. I think he could play next to Spillane on run downs/big packages and then Spillane comes off for Ellis when you need more coverage/speed at LB. Reminiscent of when Bruschi was an every down guy and Ted Johnson/Roman Phifer sort of switched out.

$55M in cap space should be enough to make those 4 signings. I left out Gibbens (his RFA tender is kind of expensive and I upgraded with Walker) and Tonga (we have lots of young DL I think we can play more next year).

For the draft, I'd try to get replacements a year early for guys I think will be cut next year. First round I go RT to take over for Moses because I think he'll be released for cap savings next year. In the 2nd, if they could get an outside CB that would allow them to cut or trade Davis next year. I think Spillane will be a cap casualty too and even though I already kind of replaced him with Walker, Elliss is a FA next year too so another player here would be good to add. Onwenu is a FA at RG next year but I'm hoping to slide McGovern there and let Wilson reclaim a starting job at his more natural C position with a year spent getting stronger and learning. Harold Landry will be cut next year too so that's some savings to offset cap hit increased on the guys we signed this year too.
 
Agreed. I even think Hollins not only remains but gets an extra year at least.. I really think he's another culture carrying guy.. he's also a specimen physically..

My thinking is..

Resign Chaisson, Hawkins, Tonga I'm thinking Chaisson will be able 10-12 million annually.. Hawkins 3 yr 20 million seems realistically..

Guys like Gibbens, Tavai and Hooper could be post draft or late FA signings if they don't sign elsewhere..
PLAYERS UNDER CONTRACT
I think that, for now, it might be useful to ignore the players who already signed through 2026.
Hollins is signed through 2026
Tavai is signed through 2027
=====
OUR FREE AGENTS
I agree that we should re-sign Chaisson, Hawkins and Tonga.

Gibbens will be tendered. He is an RFA. I expect that he will be signed to a 3-year contract at some point, probably earlier rather than later. Vrabel brought him in. He will be inexpensive. And he played well as a backup.

Hooper seems likely to be re-signed as a #3 TE, but obviously the team will look to add an upgrade. But, as you say, there will no rush to sign Hooper.

RFA Austin seems likely to be extended. Ditto for RFA DiVito.
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OF COURSE, THE GREAT UNKNOWNS ARE WITH REGARD TO OL's
I expect us to want to re-sign Lowe and Munford.
 
PLAYERS UNDER CONTRACT
I think that, for now, it might be useful to ignore the players who already signed through 2026.
Hollins is signed through 2026
Tavai is signed through 2027
=====
OUR FREE AGENTS
I agree that we should re-sign Chaisson, Hawkins and Tonga.

Gibbens will be tendered. He is an RFA. I expect that he will be signed to a 3-year contract at some point, probably earlier rather than later. Vrabel brought him in. He will be inexpensive. And he played well as a backup.

Hooper seems likely to be re-signed as a #3 TE, but obviously the team will look to add an upgrade. But, as you say, there will no rush to sign Hooper.

RFA Austin seems likely to be extended. Ditto for RFA DiVito.
============
OF COURSE, THE GREAT UNKNOWNS ARE WITH REGARD TO OL's
I expect us to want to re-sign Lowe and Munford.
Great points! Well said.
I've said previously that every last one of our Pending And RFAs are all Attainable and should be.. they aren't going to break the bank...

Look as a RFA like Ellis.. came in played well and can probably saying an improving player that's one of the my physical LBs in the game.. he's only gonna get better..

Also let's go ahead and address the most important thing now.

Get gonzo extended now!!!
 
I think you are greatly overvaluing Likely. Why will the Ravens let Likely go? Because he is soft. Vrabel and crew will not sign Likely because soft guys are great all season (put up great stats) and disappear in the playoffs when the refs swallow their whistles.
We're definitely not talking about a stud all pro here. I'm not trying to paint him as such. I just think he had a skill set that works within the overall skill position corps I build in that mock offseason plan. Definitely not perfect but a piece to add to the offense IMO. I definitely don't have him as a "sign at all costs" guy. The front office probably has connections around the league that can give more insight into his aptitude/attitude and they can do a way more in depth scouting assessment of what his strengths and weaknesses are than I can.

As far as not disappearing in the playoffs, I'm not really sure that's too accurate for him. At least not to this definitive degree that you're painting it as... In 2022 as a rookie he didn't have a catch in his one playoff game. Just a rookie though and it was one game. In 2023 his postseason production mirrored his regular season production. In 2024, he had two strong playoff games where he had 53 and then 73 yards in the two games. That's right at a 1K yard in a season pace even at the old 16 game schedule and was double his production in the regular season that year. This year BAL didn't make the playoffs but their last game was win or go home for the division and he had anormal game for him (more yards than his regular season pace).

Chigoziem Okonkwo played for Vrabel in TEN and could be another move TE option. Noah Fant is out there too maybe. I think a flexible move TE would be a nice dynamic to add to the offense one way or another.
 
I think you are greatly overvaluing Likely. Why will the Ravens let Likely go? Because he is soft. Vrabel and crew will not sign Likely because soft guys are great all season (put up great stats) and disappear in the playoffs when the refs swallow their whistles.
Agreed 100%.. add in he's always hurt as well..
 
true for many posters.

Others agree with Vrabel that we are fine at ILB with Spillane and Ellis as starters and Gibbens as the backup. (and yes, Tavai as the #4)
Adding another LB to the mix would help.. nakobe Dean would be a nice pick up... some may disagree but I really like Ellis
 
Great post and great idea.

I am not sold on Likely. Not a blocker, not strong on the ball, and not a great attitude.

Why not Pitts or Otten?
Pitts has almost no chance of getting to free agency but Otten might. If he does likely 10 million plus for Otten.
 
Agreed. I even think Hollins not only remains but gets an extra year at least.. I really think he's another culture carrying guy.. he's also a specimen physically..

My thinking is..

Resign Chaisson, Hawkins, Tonga I'm thinking Chaisson will be able 10-12 million annually.. Hawkins 3 yr 20 million seems realistically..
I'm not paying Hawkins anywhere near that, especially if he's ideally going to be a backup.
 
I'm not paying Hawkins anywhere near that, especially if he's ideally going to be a backup.
He's a starting S and had risen to be actually one of the best safeties in the league.. of course we could always upgrade there.. but do the guy a solid.. that contract is kibbles and bits realistically..but for a guy like him it's s good deal.. I think he stays.... it should be telling how his season went and how the demise of peppers and Dugger went...
 
I'm not paying Hawkins anywhere near that, especially if he's ideally going to be a backup.
Unless we upgrade at S and then you have a great point.. who's out there to be a FA at free safety that would be an upgrade?.
 
He's a starting S and had risen to be actually one of the best safeties in the league.. of course we could always upgrade there.. but do the guy a solid.. that contract is kibbles and bits realistically..but for a guy like him it's s good deal.. I think he stays.... it should be telling how his season went and how the demise of peppers and Dugger went...
Jaylen Hawkins isn't anywhere near "one of the best safeties the league". He was by far the weakest link in the secondary, and Seattle exploited the hell out of him. Hell, Denver did too on Stidham's long pass. That wasn't on Gonzalez. Hawkins bit on nothing and got absolutely tourched. He was supposed to be the deep help on that play. It happened dozens of times this season. It just wasn't terminal because the corners were absolutely elite, and Woodson turned out to *actually* be one of the best safeties in the league by year's end.
 
Jaylen Hawkins isn't anywhere near "one of the best safeties the league". He was by far the weakest link in the secondary, and Seattle exploited the hell out of him. Hell, Denver did too on Stidham's long pass. That wasn't on Gonzalez. Hawkins bit on nothing and got absolutely tourched. He was supposed to be the deep help on that play. It happened dozens of times this season.
Ok fair enough if that's your opinion.. who's the upgrade in FA???.
 
Jaylen Hawkins isn't anywhere near "one of the best safeties the league". He was by far the weakest link in the secondary, and Seattle exploited the hell out of him. Hell, Denver did too on Stidham's long pass. That wasn't on Gonzalez. Hawkins bit on nothing and got absolutely tourched. He was supposed to be the deep help on that play. It happened dozens of times this season. It just wasn't terminal because the corners were absolutely elite, and Woodson turned out to *actually* be one of the best safeties in the league by year's end.
 
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