What is your confidence level for Super Bowl LX?

[NFL Mystique]

The offense suddenly doing a 360 & defense continuing to bail them out against a better team is unrealistic.

So there should be lots of concern headed into the game.

 

[Uptown]

Drake Maye SB MVP

 

[Real fan 02]

The Patriots defense is on a playoff run nearly at the same level as the 2000 Ravens and 85 Bears.

I'd call that lights-out, personally.

Absolutely agree!! It seems as if Tonga, Barmore and milt are getting healthy.. Barmore was a menace last game especially.. Tommy wait until we add some edge depth in the offseason this defense is going to another level..

Darnold doesn't scare me.. Seattle defense is good but let's not get them confused with the legion of Boom.
Patiots defense is playing at another level and is elite.
Seattle...they are down thier best RB in Charbonet.. take away JSN and you can hamper thier offense..

Game is played on even ground.. the 12th man won't factor in here...

 

[Real fan 02]

The offense suddenly doing a 360 & defense continuing to bail them out against a better team is unrealistic.

So there should be lots of concern headed into the game.

Having gone through a gauntlet of tough defenses in the post season when teams have a season worth of film is difficult.

The Seattle I'd say is lesser of the defenses we have seen so far IMO.. offense bounces back this game.

 

[denverpatsfan]

They got no shot. My expert analysis will follow later this week or next....

 

[Rob0729]

I will never predict against the Patriots, but I have to say the odds are not in their favor. Granted not as lopsided as the media and the NFL community make it, but I would say they deserve to be the favorites.

Here is why I think the Pats could very well win.
- The Seahawks' o-line is not the best especially the interior part of it where the Pats are the strongest. This should benefit Williams. Barmore, and company.
- Darnold sucks against the blitz and turns over the ball a lot when blitzed. The Pats have been dominating with the blitz in the playoffs.
- JSN is the Seahawks entire passing offense. He gets nearly 40% of the passing targets. He has more receiving yards than the next four Seahawks' receivers combined.
- The Pats have an elite CB to shadow JSN.
- The Seahawks don't have a strong outside rush. Most of their pass rush comes from up the middle. Two of their three sack leaders are DTs. So we don't have to worry about Campbell being beat on the edge as much. Also, Maye will be able to scramble out of the pocket to make plays.
- The Seahawks defense's stats and rep has been propped up by playing a lot of average to below average to awful QBs like the Vikings third stringer, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, etc. When they do face good QBs, they mostly give up points. Stafford feasted on them two of the three times they met each other including last week where he had 374 yards and 3 TDs.

If I was going to give odds, I say it is maybe 60-40 in the Seahawks' favor. Maybe 55-45.

 

[Vindicate]

This game makes me think of Mike Tyson's "everyone has a plan until they're punched in the mouth." The key is how we respond to their punch to the mouth. Could see it getting out of hand, but could also see us blocking the punch and hitting back. I believe it will be the latter, but the toughest test for sure.

Hot take: The Patriots have been the absolute best team this year at getting punched in the face, even with some chin action, and moving on to the next snap or series. Broncos were second, imo.

 

[Real fan 02]

I will never predict against the Patriots, but I have to say the odds are not in their favor. Granted not as lopsided as the media and the NFL community make it, but I would say they deserve to be the favorites.

Here is why I think the Pats could very well win.
- The Seahawks' o-line is not the best especially the interior part of it where the Pats are the strongest. This should benefit Williams. Barmore, and company.
- Darnold sucks against the blitz and turns over the ball a lot when blitzed. The Pats have been dominating with the blitz in the playoffs.
- JSN is the Seahawks entire passing offense. He gets nearly 40% of the passing targets. He has more receiving yards than the next four Seahawks' receivers combined.
- The Pats have an elite CB to shadow JSN.
- The Seahawks don't have a strong outside rush. Most of their pass rush comes from up the middle. Two of their three sack leaders are DTs. So we don't have to worry about Campbell being beat on the edge as much. Also, Maye will be able to scramble out of the pocket to make plays.
- The Seahawks defense's stats and rep has been propped up by playing a lot of average to below average to awful QBs like the Vikings third stringer, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, etc. When they do face good QBs, they mostly give up points. Stafford feasted on them two of the three times they met each other including last week where he had 374 yards and 3 TDs.

If I was going to give odds, I say it is maybe 60-40 in the Seahawks' favor. Maybe 55-45.

Excellent post Rob. I'll add that I don't think JSN is such a good match up for Gonzo becuase of his shifty abilities similarly to Flowers. I think Marcus is probably a better fit to be able to stay with JSN with his speed and quick twich abilities..Gonzo is best suited on Cupp IMO..

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

I think there's a good chance the defense gets to Darnold. I think there's a better chance that JSN has a day. I also think that JMcD's experience will show and Maye will be ready. In the end, Seattle's D is freakin' real good, and the Pats might come up short.

Regardless of what Marko Ramius says, 50/50.

More tea anyone?

 

[Steve102]

More tea anyone?

No? Then you Maye return to your posts.

The Seahawks aren't the concern, Vasyli. I know their tactics, I have the advantage.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

No? Then you Maye return to your posts.

The Seahawks aren't the concern, Vasyli. I know their tactics, I have the advantage.

I would like to have seen (Joe) Montana.

 

[Steve102]

I would like to have seen (Joe) Montana.

Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary - The Seattle Seahawks. For 11 years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

Once more, we play our dangerous game, a game of chess against our old adversary - The Seattle Seahawks. For 11 years, your fathers before you and your older brothers played this game and played it well. But today the game is different. We have the advantage.

Mike Vrabel doesn't take a dump without a plan son.

 

[Steve102]

Mike Vrabel doesn't take a dump without a plan son.

I was going to roll that one out next! Nice work.

 

[jal]

Think any fair analysis would give the Seahawks the edge here but not overwhelmingly so - 40/60 or 45/55 territory.

The reality is we need our MVP-caliber QB to outplay their sometimes-hot sometimes-not QB and we win. But the latter gets to work with better offensive support (mainly JSN but Kupp is a wily vet, Walker is incredibly shifty as a receiver out of the backfield).

Drake frankly hasn't played up to his full capability in the playoffs. There have been spurts of it but he hasn't consistently brought his top level. He will need to bring his best to this game (receivers will also have to make some tough catches, offensive line has to hold up mostly) and I think we win. It really does come down to him and the rest of the offense.

They haven't played up to their capabilities in the playoffs but have made clutch plays when needed so far. This game they will need to bring consistency on top of a few clutch big plays as our defense is not facing an impaired offense so it would be unfair to expect them to hold the Seahawks to <17 pts, but at the same time I don't think they will get trucked for 25+ (Seahawks are not the Rams or Bills on offense). Our offense has the capability to score in the low/mid-20s against this tough Seahawks D on a good day...if they can do it we should be able to win a tight one. Would be easier if Darnold gives us some short fields but we shouldn't walk in expecting "bad Darnold" in this game as part of the plan.

 

[Water Boy]

I think most of the pundits consider the Seahawks to be the best team in the league.

Based on our recent defensive resurgence, I think we have as good a chance to beat them as any team.

Our playoff journey has not be aesthetically pleasing, but if we can play a clean game with a two week JMcD game plan, I like our chances.

Need to weather the storm and land a few punches early. I trust Vrabel will set the tone and get this team believing.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Think any fair analysis would give the Seahawks the edge here but not overwhelmingly so - 40/60 or 45/55 territory.

The reality is we need our MVP-caliber QB to outplay their sometimes-hot sometimes-not QB and we win. But the latter gets to work with better offensive support (mainly JSN but Kupp is a wily vet, Walker is incredibly shifty as a receiver out of the backfield).

Drake frankly hasn't played up to his full capability in the playoffs. There have been spurts of it but he hasn't consistently brought his top level. He will need to bring his best to this game (receivers will also have to make some tough catches, offensive line has to hold up mostly) and I think we win. It really does come down to him and the rest of the offense.

They haven't played up to their capabilities in the playoffs but have made clutch plays when needed so far. This game they will need to bring consistency on top of a few clutch big plays as our defense is not facing an impaired offense so it would be unfair to expect them to hold the Seahawks to <17 pts, but at the same time I don't think they will get trucked for 25+ (Seahawks are not the Rams or Bills on offense). Our offense has the capability to score in the mid-20s against this tough Seahawks D on a good day...if they can do it we should be able to win a tight one. Would be easier if Darnold gives us some short fields but we shouldn't walk in expecting "bad Darnold" in this game as part of the plan.

He played in 2 games against great defenses in poor weather.
Watch when it's 60 degrees against a lesser defense.
Pats Win.

 

[jal]

He played in 2 games against great defenses in poor weather.
Watch when it's 60 degrees against a lesser defense.
Pats Win.

No doubt - and I don't think we would've lit up any of those teams in those conditions even if Drake played his best game. But I don't think anyone can say he's played his best yet in these playoffs - much of it due to the rest of the offense btw (offensive line vs. Houston most notably, receivers to a degree in Chargers/Broncos game) but he has left points on the board particularly against the Chargers and Broncos.

That should be encouraging! Even when he's not 100% "on" he's scraped and fought and made the needed plays when we needed them. That's an "it" factor that we didn't know he had until the playoffs. But the point should be that we will need his best on Super Bowl Sunday. He's capable of it, and that obviously means the rest of the offense will need to play very well too. We need the consistent offense + some huge clutch plays.

Stafford played magnificently in the last two games against this Seahawks defense and it was the weaknesses of his team (corners, special teams) that cost him those games. Drake must also bring his A game. Yes, Stafford has two game breaking receivers and a better offensive line - but his defense is worse than the Patriots D and his special teams are absolutely atrocious.

That's why I don't think we need 30+ to win this game => the target should be mid-20s (assuming 10-11 drives and no super short fields) and underlying stats of ~5-5.5 yards per play, ~45% third down conversion, ~3-4 explosive pass plays. I don't think the Pats run game is capable of dominating in this game but reasonable support (~100 yards on ~25-30 runs excluding QB runs, grind out tough yards to convert third and short) will help. Needless to say we must get this kind of production without putting the ball in harms way (at most 1 turnover). We can't play scared - we have to play offense aggressively and put it on our best player to get it done in a clean game.

In the past we were more than happy to put the burden on Brady because he was our best player (and the best player in the history of the NFL). Drake has the ability to be the best player in this game - we have to trust him and ride with him and live with the results.

 

[fnordcircle]

I like our team a lot. But I think we'll need significantly better play from the offense - most notably offensive line protection - to win outside of the Defense winning the game for us, Special Teams scores, Turnovers, etc.

I think they've played better than us against better opponents.

I absolutely think we can win, but if our offensive output the last 3 games is the indicator of where we are against a top defense it'll be an uphill climb.

At the same time, Seattle isn't some crazy unbeatable juggernaut. I'd say this Seattle team is not as strong as the 2014 team so it's not like we will be truly lucky to beat them. We'll just need to play better than we have so far.

 

[Uptown]

OL holds up. We win. Simple as that..