OT: Byes and Seeding

[XLIX]

It is not clear at all that a bye is an advantage.

With all due respect, that is one of the dumbest things ever written in the forum.

 

[XLIX]

I don't know. I presume that you don't even have a mild interest in college football.

This isn't college football. If you want to talk about the value - or lack thereof - of byes in the college football format, feel free to start a fresh thread discussing that topic.

Here in the NFL, which you were clearly talking about, there is a tremendous advantage to having a bye.

 

[Steve102]

Just win baby.

 

[mgteich]

With all due respect, that is one of the dumbest things ever written in the forum.

fair enough. I said that it wasn't clear that the bye is an advantage. You think that the situation is 100% clear.
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CONSIDER
if Campbell, Williams, and Boutte weren't able to play tomorrow or perhaps they play for just a series.
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You are 100% sure that it wouldn't be better for everyone to have a game against the weakest wildcard to get ready for a run at the championship. You are 100% sure that the Defense will be better with yet another weak of rest so that they can come back together after not having played together for many weeks.

I'm simply saying that the situation is not at all 100%. If the goal is the championship, then it may sometimes be better for the team to have a first game against a weak team instead having 6-8 players coming into Week 20 very, very rusty.
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We do need to win the game. The #2 seed is indeed important. I think that there is at least an argument that the bye is not a huge plus.
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PERHAPS
you just don't think that we're that good and should be hugely afraid that we'll lose our first game.

I think that if we are one of top 5 or 6 teams in the NFL, we SHOULD be heavily favored in the first game and that the Defense can benefit more from a week playing together from the bye.
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I'm ONLY saying that it is not all that clear. To put it another way, I am not terribly disappointed that we won't have the bye. I'm excited that I am looking forward to playing a home game against the weakest wildcard team and getting our Defense ready for the rest of the playoffs. It will be great to see Williams, Barmore, Tonga and hopefully Spillane playing together instead of resting.

 

[Kargetina]

As to whether having a bye is an advantage or not, I can say I have never bought a "Four Games to Glory" Patriots DVD.

While that's true, the Pats had a bye 13 times out their 17 playoff appearances in the Brady/Belichick era, they blew the Colts game in 2006, and they weren't a championship caliber team in the other three occasions, with or without a bye (2005, 2009 and 2019).

In the 21st century, 14 of the Super Bowl champions were with a bye, and 11 were without a bye. Since 2020, when only one team per conference gets a bye, four teams have won it without a bye, and only one with a bye. Considering that 4 of the 8 remaining teams in the divisional were teams with a bye, and only 56% of the time a team with a bye won, it's not that decisive as one might suppose. The last five years, underline it even more, with 2 teams out of 8 in the divisional having a bye, and only 20% win rate.

Obviously it's better to have a bye than not, as it guarantees at least one ''win'' on paper, but the teams getting in the playoffs in-form are those who win the SB, you still need to win those 3 games. Every team that gets in the divisional has as much chance as the teams coming of a bye, which is what the stats demonstrate. The advantage is only during the wild card weekend, as the bye teams can't lose, as soon as the divisional games start, it's anyone's game.

 

[mgteich]

.

Obviously it's better to have a bye than not..

Statistics is a fine science.

Perhaps the teams with byes who won were simply better teams that those without byes.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yup. The golden age for the patriots has been those years. I might start the day Kraft bought the team rather than 1990, but that is nitpicking.

No matter how much we wish to return, those days are not coming back.

The Golden Age for the Pats started in 1990??? REALLY?


Just another nonsense thread with nonsense responses from MG.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Obviously it's better to have a bye than not, as it guarantees at least one ''win'' on paper,

At least one win on paper AND no injuries during that win. Certain injuries can derail a SB run, so automatically avoiding injuries in game #1 is huge.

 

[1960Pats]

The main problem is the fact that a team can with a "division" by having a better record than only three other teams.

And there's no way that a team with a worse record than any other team should be in the playoffs at all, let alone get a home game.

And do away with the byes altogether. Teams play completely different schedules the way it's set up now.

 

[Pape]

just win... everything else is gravy...

the seeding? it is what it is, and will sort itself out...

 

[Real fan 02]

It is not clear at all that a bye is an advantage.

It is clear that having home games is an advantage.

Division winners should have at least one home game. That worth fight for, for the team and the fans who want to see a home game.
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PROPOSAL
1. Get rid of the bye
2. Have 16 teams in the playoffs, with the top seed playing the lowest each week.
3. Re-seed after the first week, so a team with the fewest wins gets a seeding advantage only for the first week.

The #1 see would then be forced to play an extra game against the #16 seed instead of having a bye, not much of an issue.

I say go back to the old format top two seeds get bye weeks. If the league really wanted to they could do it. They found a way to make it 17 games.

We benefited greatly from having bye weeks. '01, '03, "04, '14, '16, '18. I believe we were the 2nd seed in the AFC some.of those years as well.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

This isn't college football. If you want to talk about the value - or lack thereof - of byes in the college football format, feel free to start a fresh thread discussing that topic.

Here in the NFL, which you were clearly talking about, there is a tremendous advantage to having a bye.

Per AI, playoff teams w a bye win 75% of their next games and make the Super Bowl at a rate 7x seeds #3-6

 

[Rob0729]

While that's true, the Pats had a bye 13 times out their 17 playoff appearances in the Brady/Belichick era, they blew the Colts game in 2006, and they weren't a championship caliber team in the other three occasions, with or without a bye (2005, 2009 and 2019).

In the 21st century, 14 of the Super Bowl champions were with a bye, and 11 were without a bye. Since 2020, when only one team per conference gets a bye, four teams have won it without a bye, and only one with a bye. Considering that 4 of the 8 remaining teams in the divisional were teams with a bye, and only 56% of the time a team with a bye won, it's not that decisive as one might suppose. The last five years, underline it even more, with 2 teams out of 8 in the divisional having a bye, and only 20% win rate.

Obviously it's better to have a bye than not, as it guarantees at least one ''win'' on paper, but the teams getting in the playoffs in-form are those who win the SB, you still need to win those 3 games. Every team that gets in the divisional has as much chance as the teams coming of a bye, which is what the stats demonstrate. The advantage is only during the wild card weekend, as the bye teams can't lose, as soon as the divisional games start, it's anyone's game.

In the 13 playoffs with the bye, the Pats won six Super Bowls, went to eight Super Bowls in total, and appeared in 11 AFCCG.

In the four times the Pats didn’t have a bye, the Pats lost in the wild card round twice, the division round once, and the AFCCG once.

This tells me the bye is a huge advantage.

 

[pazrul72]

Obviously there are pros and cons to both, a hot team staying hot and having another game to gel vrs coming out rusty and not being able to flip the switch. IMO that however is not even close to the advantage that is a week to heal and an automatic win. The NFL season is a grind that wears out even the people who are in love with it to an insane degree *cough* Brady *cough*. Even just the mental break of a couple days off to recharge can't be understated. And let's say the odds of Maye taking a concussion causing hit is 5% I much much much prefer the odds during a bye of zero.

Now assuming I was commissioner with absolute power, not the puppet with 32 hands up his ass Gotohell is, I would make the following changes. First do away with preseason all together, useless waste of time these days but allow teams to have more joint practices so coaches can see their guys going up against competition in a more controlled environment.

The reason I'm doing away with preseason is change 2, I'm adding 2 games to the schedule for a total of 19. What? There are already too many games and injuries will skyrocket! Ah but the reason I'm adding is I'm doing away with divisions playing each other twice. From now on every team plays every other team in their conference. So 15 games against every team in the AFC will make figuring out who belongs in the playoffs simple, best conference records get in. Now the last 4 games will be against the NFC team you finished the same in division as. NFC record will be the tie breaker for conference record.

Now more games does lead to more injuries so change number 3. Week 8 and week 15 are bye weeks for the entire league. I then schedule the best games, think Brady vrs Manning the weeks after the bye. Build up anticipation and make them the best games possible.

Last and final change, way too many playoff teams. I think about the top 25% of the league should be in the playoffs not nearly half. It's the one thing MLB gets right. So top 4 teams per conference regardless of division, no bye and no week in-between the championship games and the Superbowl. There's the two weeks for league wide byes.

 

[p8ryts]

Obviously there are pros and cons to both, a hot team staying hot and having another game to gel vrs coming out rusty and not being able to flip the switch. IMO that however is not even close to the advantage that is a week to heal and an automatic win. The NFL season is a grind that wears out even the people who are in love with it to an insane degree *cough* Brady *cough*. Even just the mental break of a couple days off to recharge can't be understated. And let's say the odds of Maye taking a concussion causing hit is 5% I much much much prefer the odds during a bye of zero.

Now assuming I was commissioner with absolute power, not the puppet with 32 hands up his ass Gotohell is, I would make the following changes. First do away with preseason all together, useless waste of time these days but allow teams to have more joint practices so coaches can see their guys going up against competition in a more controlled environment.

The reason I'm doing away with preseason is change 2, I'm adding 2 games to the schedule for a total of 19. What? There are already too many games and injuries will skyrocket! Ah but the reason I'm adding is I'm doing away with divisions playing each other twice. From now on every team plays every other team in their conference. So 15 games against every team in the AFC will make figuring out who belongs in the playoffs simple, best conference records get in. Now the last 4 games will be against the NFC team you finished the same in division as. NFC record will be the tie breaker for conference record.

Now more games does lead to more injuries so change number 3. Week 8 and week 15 are bye weeks for the entire league. I then schedule the best games, think Brady vrs Manning the weeks after the bye. Build up anticipation and make them the best games possible.

Last and final change, way too many playoff teams. I think about the top 25% of the league should be in the playoffs not nearly half. It's the one thing MLB gets right. So top 4 teams per conference regardless of division, no bye and no week in-between the championship games and the Superbowl. There's the two weeks for league wide byes.

I like the idea of playing every one in the conference once and doing away with the division double up. Also like the entire league bye weeks and reducing the playoff teams. I didn't understand this "the last 4 games will be against the NFC team you finished the same in division as". Not certain I like 19 games. Good Job.

 

[mgteich]

In the 13 playoffs with the bye, the Pats won six Super Bowls, went to eight Super Bowls in total, and appeared in 11 AFCCG.

In the four times the Pats didn’t have a bye, the Pats lost in the wild card round twice, the division round once, and the AFCCG once.

This tells me the bye is a huge advantage.

That tells me that the teams that got the bye were better teams.

 

[Rob0729]

That tells me that the teams that got the bye were better teams.

That is a factor. Also a factor is that you have homefield and have to play one less game.

 

[mgteich]

That is a factor. Also a factor is that you have homefield and have to play one less game.

I agree 100% with the importance of homefield advantage.

 

[pazrul72]

I like the idea of playing every one in the conference once and doing away with the division double up. Also like the entire league bye weeks and reducing the playoff teams. I didn't understand this "the last 4 games will be against the NFC team you finished the same in division as". Not certain I like 19 games. Good Job.

Like right now the patriots finished 4th in the afc east so they play the 4th place team of the divisions they aren’t playing, this year all 4 teams of the AFC North, so Raiders from the West, and the Titans from the South. Just for some crossover AFC vrs NFC, you play 4 games against the team from each division you finished in the same spot as. Like Buffalo got the Eagles, we got the Giants, but do that for every NFC division.

 

[Uptown]